Prediction for 2011 from Smashwords Founder

[jasonkchapman]

Originally Posted by leebase

How is that really relevant? If you steal food, but don't eat ALL of it, throw some (or even most) of it out -- are you less a theif?

I think it's relevant in that the discussion wasn't really about the definition of the word thief. It was about accounting for lost sales. Whether or not the person fits the definition of the word thief, the question remains as to whether or not they would have fit the definition of the word customer had the pirate version not been available.

One ancillary subject for the marketing crowd to examine is the question of how willing one would be to become a customer of someone who is busy calling him a thief, because it's in the market's best interest to lure folks away from the darknet.

[leebase]

Originally Posted by jasonkchapman

I think it's relevant in that the discussion wasn't really about the definition of the word thief. It was about accounting for lost sales. Whether or not the person fits the definition of the word thief, the question remains as to whether or not they would have fit the definition of the word customer had the pirate version not been available.

Is it not likely that authors aren't interested solely in the money aspect? If you don't want to pay me for my work, fine. But you don't then get to enjoy my work. If you enjoy my work that I offer only for pay -- you've stolen from me.

Someone trying to make the point to me, the author, that "it really didn't take money from you" -- that' BESIDE the point. I write for a living, I offer my books for SALE. If I want to give my books away, I will CHOOSE to do so. No one has the right to choose FOR me.

Lee (who isn't an author)

[Fbone]

Points #5 and #6 where he says Big 6 royalty rates will rise but ebook prices will fall. Does he expect the publishers to take a double hit?

If big 6 published ebook prices fall, then so will the small, indie and self-published ebook prices. I'm not sure Mr Coker and authors would like that.

[MrsJoseph]

Originally Posted by leebase

Is it not likely that authors aren't interested solely in the money aspect? If you don't want to pay me for my work, fine. But you don't then get to enjoy my work. If you enjoy my work that I offer only for pay -- you've stolen from me.

Someone trying to make the point to me, the author, that "it really didn't take money from you" -- that' BESIDE the point. I write for a living, I offer my books for SALE. If I want to give my books away, I will CHOOSE to do so. No one has the right to choose FOR me.

Lee (who isn't an author)

I agree with your point, but that doesn't change the equation for "lost sales"

[jasonkchapman]

Originally Posted by leebase

Is it not likely that authors aren't interested solely in the money aspect? If you don't want to pay me for my work, fine. But you don't then get to enjoy my work. If you enjoy my work that I offer only for pay -- you've stolen from me.

Someone trying to make the point to me, the author, that "it really didn't take money from you" -- that' BESIDE the point. I write for a living, I offer my books for SALE. If I want to give my books away, I will CHOOSE to do so. No one has the right to choose FOR me.

Lee (who isn't an author)

The money aspect is precisely the point, or rather, the accuracy of the quantity involved. Let's say that I grant you that it is theft, which I never disputed. As an author, my next move is to decide what to do about it. If it's truly costing me a gazillion dollars, it's worth a lot to do something about it. If it's really only costing me pocket change, it's not worth a great deal of effort to change it.

But if it's somewhere in the middle, and I decide to put time and effort (and money) into doing something about it, the question then becomes "What is the most cost effective thing to do?" It might be to do everything in my power to get sites shut down and people arrested and all of that. Or, it might just be to sway some of those folks over to a more support-your-author way of thinking. I don't know. I do, however, feel that reasonable actions rarely follow from unreasonable assumptions.

[MrsJoseph]

I think that the major issue facing content producers is not pirating books it’s this:

9. Discoverability becomes HOT – Amid glut of content, discovery will become the new obsession of publishing. Publishers of all sizes will begin to realize obscurity is the biggest threat facing their business. Solution: maximize availability of product, leverage metadata, create books that resonate with readers, enlist fans as extension of sales force.

Instead of alienating paying readers with DRM, authors/publishers should be introducing their works in legal formats and as superior products. It is much easier to explain that the purchased copy has high resolution cover art, working Table of Contents, great formatting, etc. in my opinion.

I am very much in favor of killing DRM off...therefore I read a lot of these threads/blogs/etc to gather information. In each and every one of the blogs that I have read, there are always comments by authors complaining about pirates. But guess what? I would have never heard of these authors if they hadn't commented on the blog site (would I count as a lost sale?). I even found several new books & authors (which I purchased) while digging through moaning and groaning comments. And although I severely disagree with Steven Lyle Jordan regarding his take on the future of DRM, more than likely I will purchase a couple of his books for my mom for her birthday (I'm more fantasy, not Sci-Fi). I would have NEVER heard of Steven Lyle Jordan if not for MobileRead.

[HistoryWes]

A few months ago I googled the title of my sf novel Princess of Amathar so that I could see if anyone had posted a review. Much to my surprise, I found it listed in a bit torrent with many other (mostly famous) sf books. I was actually pleased more than upset, because apparently somebody thought enough of it to place it in an archive. Nobody pirated this book because it was too expensive though. It was (and is) selling just about everywhere for less than $2, DRM-free. I'm still less bothered by any (very small) money that I won't get, than by the fact that I can't tell what the distribution is. I've written four books that I've distributed free, but I still like to keep track of how many copies are downloaded.

[leebase]

Originally Posted by jasonkchapman

But if it's somewhere in the middle, and I decide to put time and effort (and money) into doing something about it, the question then becomes "What is the most cost effective thing to do?" It might be to do everything in my power to get sites shut down and people arrested and all of that. Or, it might just be to sway some of those folks over to a more support-your-author way of thinking. I don't know. I do, however, feel that reasonable actions rarely follow from unreasonable assumptions.

But it's the AUTHOR who gets to decide what HE wants to do about it. Or the publisher if the author had entered into agreements that give such decisions over to the publisher.

It's perfectly reasonable for an author to decide that he doesn't WANT folks stealing from him -- whether the theft loses him money or not. It's perfectly reasonable for an author to decide that pirated books are great advertising and at least he's being read.

I don't like DRM myself. I personally think it hurts real genuine paying customers more than it stops theft.

Lee

[leebase]

Originally Posted by MrsJoseph

It is much easier to explain that the purchased copy has high resolution cover art, working Table of Contents, great formatting, etc. in my opinion.

You can't make such a distinction when the "better" content is digital as folks will just pirate the better version.

With the plethora of ereaders -- the digital version IS the best and most desired version. They days of folks going out and buying the hard back/paper back becuase they read and enjoyed the pirated ebook are quickly coming to an end. Lots of people are not going to WANT the physical book, even if they buy the ebook.

If you are selling a digital good -- it's only reasonable to attempt to keep people from stealing from you.

Lee

[MrsJoseph]

Originally Posted by leebase

You can't make such a distinction when the "better" content is digital as folks will just pirate the better version.

With the plethora of ereaders -- the digital version IS the best and most desired version. They days of folks going out and buying the hard back/paper back becuase they read and enjoyed the pirated ebook are quickly coming to an end. Lots of people are not going to WANT the physical book, even if they buy the ebook.

If you are selling a digital good -- it's only reasonable to attempt to keep people from stealing from you.

Lee

Maybe I'm confused because I don't pirate, but from what I've heard from people who do is that the pirated copy is a crap shot. You might get something good...or you could get a simple text with no cover, etc. I'm not a person who likes to spend hours digging through files, hoping I'll get a good one. I'm sure the people who have the time and energy to dig through that much crap looking for a gem would have stolen the book even if it was only offered in print.

[leebase]

Originally Posted by MrsJoseph

Maybe I'm confused because I don't pirate, but from what I've heard from people who do is that the pirated copy is a crap shot. You might get something good...or you could get a simple text with no cover, etc. I'm not a person who likes to spend hours digging through files, hoping I'll get a good one. I'm sure the people who have the time and energy to dig through that much crap looking for a gem would have stolen the book even if it was only offered in print.

Scanning a book is only one way to pirate. Folks can also just strip off the drm from a commercial copy and then post it on the torrent sites.

Lee

[MrsJoseph]

Originally Posted by leebase

Scanning a book is only one way to pirate. Folks can also just strip off the drm from a commercial copy and then post it on the torrent sites.

Lee

This is true. But how will the person downloading KNOW what version they are downloading? That's the crap shot.

[GA Russell]

Originally Posted by leebase

It's perfectly reasonable for an author to decide that he doesn't WANT folks stealing from him -- whether the theft loses him money or not.

Lee, apparently you think the author has the right to determine who enjoys his work.

Thus, someone who reads the book without paying the author is guilty of stealing from the author?

The author has the moral right to object even if the reader is not costing him any money?

I don't think the world agrees with you on this.

[Sil_liS]

#1 - Only true if the Agency model will stop, otherwise the price of ebooks can be higher than the price of trade books.

#2 - If I got this right, it will mean that the authors who get most readers from self publishing could get an agent to negotiate a better deal with the publisher. Of course that would also mean that they would have to spend money on the agent, and the good agents will ask for a lot, so in the end we get a shift of profit from the publishers to the agents. And as the publishers still need to make money, books will cost more and the readers will be left with the burden.

#3 - Pure nonsense. So this guy actually suggests that a big author would be able to negotiate a decent contract with a publisher after denying digital rights. As the things that the publishers offer to the author (beside the printing) are editing and marketing, this would mean that the author's agent will try to negotiate a contract where ebook sales would benefit from the publisher's work and wouldn't give the publisher any revenues.

#4 - Another one that wasn't thought through. So any new author will self publish immediately (unless I misunderstood the meaning of "first resort"). As most are bad and/or uneducated by a good editor, the good ones will be buried in a deeper slush pile than last year. But some will make it through and will earn a spot next to Snooki, Justin Bieber and the Kardashians.

5# - Now he's being an idiot. He was saying that the authors wouldn't give ebook rights to the publishers, and now he is talking about the royalties that the publishers will offer.

#6 - Can be summed up to nobody will make much from ebooks, as I can't really see profits coming out of lower prices + oversupply of books + more free books.

#7 - Marketing will have to change to be as effective.

#8 - Such wishful thinking. As the international ebook market explodes, we will have more restrictions, not less.

#9 - Obscurity was always the biggest threat.

#10 - Yes, DRM won't go away that fast.
The biggest problem with DRM is that it does nothing to stop piracy. The files that are being downloaded don't have DRM. That is stripped by somebody that got the book legally. And that means that that person is a customer. So the only thing is that the publishers consider that most people would be too lazy to strip DRM and share it with others.

[unboggling]

Originally Posted by MrsJoseph

This is true. But how will the person downloading KNOW what version they are downloading? That's the crap shot.

Also, regarding torrent downloads and any other unknown source / unknown reputation downloads, there is an issue of potentially getting malware attacked from inside these packages. Aside from the moral issue, the potential of malware getting into my core eBook library, not to mention my home network, keeps me away.