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Old 12-16-2010, 10:18 AM   #46
Steven Lyle Jordan
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Amazon hoped to create a monopoly by getting the Kindle and Kindle Store up soon enough to draw everyone to them before other device-store combinations were ready. Needless to say, it didn't work, but Amazon still hopes to present the superior experience, and bring everybody over to their side of the Force.

ePub's being adopted by every-friggin'-body else has effectively thrown a monkey-wrench into that machine. Enough other bookstores have comparable experiences to the Kindle store, and comparable (or--yes!--better) readers, to present viable alternatives to Amazon. And as most people prefer more choices, a market that allows you to buy the reader you want from multiple sellers, and buy books from multiple sellers, is more attractive than having only one books source for a reader that doesn't read other sellers' books.

Slowly but surely, consumers will turn a cold shoulder to Amazon as they realize they don't need Amazon to read ebooks... they have more and equal choices elsewhere. Sooner or later, Amazon will accept this as fact, and despite a healthy business of their own, will act to prevent their being marginalized down the road.

It has been pointed out elsewhere that Amazon has a tendency to announce changes and additions to its services at just the right moment to detract from the announcements of other vendors and sellers. I imagine that, at some point, Amazon will add ePub readability to their Kindles (alongside their own formats), and wait for some other vendor to announce some new and improved service (live interactive share-your-bookshelf apps, maybe?) to strategically reveal their acceptance of ePub and take the wind out of some vendor's sails. (How soon they do this will dictate how much of an effect they will have on said announcement.)

Then they will go back to depending on their product value and interactive customers to sell product, rather than relying on hardware and format lock-in.

Last edited by Steven Lyle Jordan; 12-16-2010 at 10:21 AM.
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Old 12-16-2010, 10:22 AM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KenJackson View Post
The market hates monopolies in non-technical things, but seems to love Microsoft's near monopoly in Windows.
Actually, Microsoft is only a monopoly in the desktop market, and the only reason they got that way was by muscling everyone else into doing their bidding. They also formed a secondary support market around their flagship OS and software which added extra power to their software line by creating a group of self interested people who would only recommend Microsoft products as their whole business was centered around it. If Microsoft were to close tomorrow, a huge number of businesses would start going belly up. It's those periphery businesses they created and encouraged to grow through their shoddy coding schemes and money grab strategies that are really the only thing that keeps MS going with the power they still have. Remove those and people would flock away from them like locusts before a flood.
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This is something I've never understood. What monopoly?
Kindle and Amazon control over 80% of the ebook market. By proper definition that's considered a monopoly. You don't have to own everything to be a monopoly. You just have to own a significant majority, namely 80% or more.
Quote:
Are you taking into account that Kindle owners actually like/love their Kindles and would buy one no matter who made the device.
Kindle owners tend to be like Apple fanboys. They're only pleased with their devices because they don't realize that there's something better out there, don't wish to know, and Amazon is making sure they never do. IE, blissful ignorance.
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Old 12-16-2010, 10:31 AM   #48
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Kindle owners tend to be like Apple fanboys. They're only pleased with their devices because they don't realize that there's something better out there, don't wish to know, and Amazon is making sure they never do. IE, blissful ignorance.
I love lamp.
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Old 12-16-2010, 10:36 AM   #49
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Kindle owners tend to be like Apple fanboys. They're only pleased with their devices because they don't realize that there's something better out there, don't wish to know, and Amazon is making sure they never do. IE, blissful ignorance.[/QUOTE]

You underestimate Kindle owners.

And I make it my business to make sure everyone I speak to about Kindles DO know all the things it can do.

Kindle owners love the customer service, the no hassle warranty, the selection of books at the best prices, and the ability to download library books with just a few 'tweaks'......no rocket science required.

The smart ones don't worry about 'excusivity', or Amazon seeing everything you do.

They love, and read, books.

At least the smart ones do.
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Old 12-16-2010, 10:47 AM   #50
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Someone above mentioned it - the first timer purchases Kindle. Then they want library books. Can't do. Mumbling begins. Research follows. The next purchase might not be an improved kindle but one that can read library books. Amazon might react in a few years to shifting demands? But certainly not soon. Although someone mentioned the epub/library will not work via whispernet - that might keep things from changing.
Or there's not enough research and they buy a different reader thinking they can still read their Kindle titles on it, and discover they can't. I wonder how many Kindle owners this Christmas are buying a tablet-type reader because of the color, thinking they can transfer their Amazon books to it.
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Old 12-16-2010, 10:49 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by daffy4u View Post
What advantages do feel epub has over mobi? For my reading style it doesn't really matter.
From what I have been reading, it matters more if you are outside the USA. So if you do not live in the USA, you may have more choice of content if it's ePub then you do via the Kindle.
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Old 12-16-2010, 10:52 AM   #52
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Kindle owners love the customer service, the no hassle warranty, the selection of books at the best prices, and the ability to download library books with just a few 'tweaks'......no rocket science required.
Tweaks? Stripping DRM and converting seems like more than tweaking. It's one thing to do it for books you own, but seems pretty questionable for books you borrow from a public library.
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Old 12-16-2010, 11:33 AM   #53
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The issue is not the book format.
The issue is DRM.
The issue is both.

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Amazon is *not* going to adopt ADEPT. Not going to happen. Forget about it.
They do not have to. Apple sells epub books with their own fairplay DRM. Amazon could do the same if it so wished.
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Old 12-16-2010, 12:16 PM   #54
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To answer the OP's question on what would persuade Amazon to start selling EPUBs - several factors, one or more of which could prove persuasive to Amazon.

1. Demise of the Agency model - Fixing the price of an ebook curtails the ability of book sellers to compete on price. Amazon cornered a big chunk of the pbook market by focusing on price. If they are unable to do the same with ebooks, they lose their competitive edge.
Reality Check: This is unlikely to happen. Amazon went with the proprietary format BEFORE the Agency model came into being. This means that they feel that price competitiveness alone does not afford them enough of a competitive edge.
2. Buyer aversion - If buyers start voting against Amazon with their wallets, it may force them to review their business plans. There is a small but growing number of people who are discovering that you cannot read library books on Kindle. There is also a minority of technically minded people (including me) who see this growing into a monopoly if it already isn't one. Think IE 6 with no competition and a tonload of non-standard stuff or MS Office with the stranglehold on DOC, XLS and PPT formats or in very general terms the Apple business model.
Reality Check: Much of the market does not really care. They would be happy in the Amazon monoply till Amazon starts misusing it and then they would grumble but have no choice but to pay up. Then there are the Amazon zealots...

For library borrowing, my humble guess is that rather than adopt EPUB, Amazon would do one of 3 things :
a) Reach a deal with Overdrive/other library providers to provide MOBI/AZW formatted books
b) Buy Overdrive outright and convert it to all Amazon formats
c) Create a competing service to serve libraries

As for the minority of technophiles - do I even need to say that they do not matter?
3. Technological Change - The two big ones that are looming are - the shift to color/large format/graphics intensive books and international growth. There is a nice post about the deficiencies in MOBI format earlier in the thread. How well Amazon adapts to these changes would determine if Amazon switches. If it sees that switching to EPUB is cheaper while not endangering its competitiveness, Amazon may switch.
Realiy Check: Amazon has a good technology workforce. It is unlikely that it would prefer to switch to EPUB than enhance AZW/MOBI.
4. Business Landscape - Competitors reduce Amazon to a minority share of the market.
Reality Check: Currently, this is hilariously unthinkable. Amazon has a big first mover lead over competitors. Currently, not many of them have proved to be equals of Amazon, let alone better it. In the US, Sony has priced it's readers astronomically, Borders is teetering on the edge and B&N is not doing too great financially though much of that is B&M store related.
Gut Check: Amazon is not going to change its business plans unless something causes it to lose market share drastically and this does not seem like a probability at this time.
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Old 12-16-2010, 12:28 PM   #55
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Give it a few years as soon as ebooks become the main way to read books Amazon will more than likely be forced to use epub. As more ereaders are released and are successful (most using ebup or Adobe DRM ) Amazon will feel the pinch and be forced to give in. Unlike the ipod where you can load your CD's on to the device via your computer. If you want a book you have in ebook format you have to rebuy it. I don't see many people rebuying books for the Kindel then if they choose to switch over to the Nook buying the books again. For now it's not a major problem but later as ebooks become the norm it may well be a big pain in the butt that will help people chose what ereader to buy.
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Old 12-16-2010, 12:42 PM   #56
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A short Linux hijack

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Originally Posted by KenJackson View Post
I talk up Linux a lot, but many people use logic like this: computers are difficult and I want the simplest thing and since the people that use Linux are smart, it must be difficult so I don't want it
Linux has issues across the spectrum of user experience. Even with well regarded and user friendly distributions like Ubuntu I've had issues (and I am not timid around technology). The first big issue is driver support (this is really a vendor issue but users neither know nor care) - I have never been able to get WiFi working out of the box for Ubuntu. The second problem is UI constancy - see the F-Spot to Shotwell change, for instance. Finally, lack of polish - I have a dual boot configuration and every time there is a kernel upgrade, the old versions are never auto-removed from the GRUB menu list. I know enough to manually edit the configuration files but for anyone who is not tech-savvy it is a monumental task akin to playing with Windows registry.
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Old 12-16-2010, 01:14 PM   #57
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Give it a few years as soon as ebooks become the main way to read books Amazon will more than likely be forced to use epub. As more ereaders are released and are successful (most using ebup or Adobe DRM ) Amazon will feel the pinch and be forced to give in. Unlike the ipod where you can load your CD's on to the device via your computer. If you want a book you have in ebook format you have to rebuy it. I don't see many people rebuying books for the Kindel then if they choose to switch over to the Nook buying the books again. For now it's not a major problem but later as ebooks become the norm it may well be a big pain in the butt that will help people chose what ereader to buy.
I believe new readers are not going to have an impact. The US market has already seen half a dozen readers (or more) fail or canceled. Selling readers is not much of a business. One needs to sell an integrated bookstore with competitively priced books. A smooth user experience goes without saying.

This is why Amazon is where it is. And it is not going to budge from that spot till either a competitor out-innovates or out-competes it or Amazon shoots itself in the foot by misusing it's market strength.

The response to your argument centers on this last point. If a user owns 300 Kindle books and is happy with Amazon, why would she go to someone else? I must have checked for about 100 books and am yet to see Amazon not be the cheapest seller. Its Kindle hardware is inexpensive and well regarded. Its customer service is an industry leader. What is not to like? Why should a customer stray?
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Old 12-16-2010, 01:22 PM   #58
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Old 12-16-2010, 01:32 PM   #59
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Quote:
Kindle owners tend to be like Apple fanboys. They're only pleased with their devices because they don't realize that there's something better out there, don't wish to know, and Amazon is making sure they never do. IE, blissful ignorance.
Gee and here I thought that I was buying a great e-reader from a company whose bookstore sells all the books that I want. I mean, how silly of me to think that I was buying the device that best suits my needs and has amazing customer service. Now I know exactly how ignorant I am and yet I still don't want to pay Sony's inflated prices or B&N battery sucking LCD screen. I don't want a device that is not tied to a bookstore, I like the archive feature thankyouverymuch. I guess I'll keep using my Kindle.

Given that the Kindle is one of the rare international e-readers and that it is growing in popularity outside of the US, I think you will see many of the folks publishing books in EPub start publishing books in EPub and Mobi. Why? Because they like making money and they will make more money if their books can be read on Kindles.
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Old 12-16-2010, 01:32 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Kitabi View Post
I believe new readers are not going to have an impact. The US market has already seen half a dozen readers (or more) fail or canceled. Selling readers is not much of a business. One needs to sell an integrated bookstore with competitively priced books. A smooth user experience goes without saying.

This is why Amazon is where it is. And it is not going to budge from that spot till either a competitor out-innovates or out-competes it or Amazon shoots itself in the foot by misusing it's market strength.

The response to your argument centers on this last point. If a user owns 300 Kindle books and is happy with Amazon, why would she go to someone else? I must have checked for about 100 books and am yet to see Amazon not be the cheapest seller. Its Kindle hardware is inexpensive and well regarded. Its customer service is an industry leader. What is not to like? Why should a customer stray?
That's why I said give it a few years for now Amazon is king of the ereaders but that could change in the next few years. I have a feeling as more people get into ereaders and more choice is presented Amazon may have to change their mind.
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