CNN interview: Physical books gone in 5 years

[Kali Yuga]

He's been saying this kind of thing for a few months now.

https://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=93697

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Negroponte has a good point in that the areas that will jump on ebooks are those that don't have good access to printed books. It is the same point as his cellphone argument: Cellphones took off faster in places that didn't have good alternatives; in the U.S., where landlines were ubiquitous, we could afford to take our time adapting to cellphones. You might as well look at them as two completely different markets, with completely different priorities determining their adoption rate.

In those areas where printed books are rare-to-nonexistent, ebooks probably will be dominant and replace paper books in 5 years. In areas like the developed world, where print is still easily obtained, it will take longer.

[kennyc]

Excellent! Thanks for that link!

[Ravensknight]

Originally Posted by Lady Fitzgerald

My TV works well for that. All I need to do, since it's patched into my computer, is run a slideshow when I'm not watching a show, a movie, or reading a book. So it's not on the coffee table; think outside the box.

But that's a "slideshow on your tv through your computer", not a coffee table book.

And how many people have the tech know how to do all that setup anyway?

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

But that's a "slideshow on your tv through your computer", not a coffee table book...

You're still thinking inside the box. Why does it have to be on a coffee table? Why does it even have to be a closed book? What do you think will catch people's eye more, a closed book or an active display on the wall?

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

...And how many people have the tech know how to do all that setup anyway?

What tech? I ran a DVI to HDMI cable from my computer to my TV. The guy at Fry's told me what kind of cable I needed when I told him what I had (by pointing and saying this and this) and wanted to do. Information on how to run a slide show and what software to use is but a Google away. If this computer challenged old broad can work it out, anyone can.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by Lady Fitzgerald

You're still thinking inside the box. Why does it have to be on a coffee table? Why does it even have to be a closed book? What do you think will catch people's eye more, a closed book or an active display on the wall?



What tech? I ran a DVI to HDMI cable from my computer to my TV. The guy at Fry's told me what kind of cable I needed when I told him what I had (by pointing and saying this and this) and wanted to do. Information on how to run a slide show and what software to use is but a Google away. If this computer challenged old broad can work it out, anyone can.

Yep. I just dumped DirecTV bought a laptop and a usb HDTV tuner ran a hdmi cable from the computer to my TV and am able to record any local over the air channels, play you-tube and other videos etc. etc.

Windows Media Center schedules the recordings already on the laptop. One usb connection to the tuner, one hdmi to the TV screen.

Works great!

[basilsands]

Originally Posted by Steven Lyle Jordan

Negroponte has a good point in that the areas that will jump on ebooks are those that don't have good access to printed books. It is the same point as his cellphone argument: Cellphones took off faster in places that didn't have good alternatives; in the U.S., where landlines were ubiquitous, we could afford to take our time adapting to cellphones. You might as well look at them as two completely different markets, with completely different priorities determining their adoption rate.

In those areas where printed books are rare-to-nonexistent, ebooks probably will be dominant and replace paper books in 5 years. In areas like the developed world, where print is still easily obtained, it will take longer.

I am fairly certain that print will never really disappear. The thing with ebooks is that they are not tangible, they require a third party to host/maintain them. One good Electro Magnetic Pulse or a strong Solar event and you could lose your entire library. As an IT person I cannot say how many times I've had to inform a customer, "Sorry, but when your hard drive crashed you lost all the pictures stored in there, no way to get it back."

Some of us like paper books, simply because we can see them and know they are ours.

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by basilsands

..."Sorry, but when your hard drive crashed you lost all the pictures stored in there, no way to get it back."...

That's when you start preaching about backups.

One is far more likely to loose p-books to natural catastrophe than e-books that have been backed up offsite as well as onsite.

[Salgueiros]

I think some people have this silly need to launch in the airwaves these prophetical soundbites just to get noticed. Paper books are not going to disappear.

There are millions of books being produced right now and will be in the next years. Besides there are even more books resting in bookshelves in private homes and second hand bookstores. These will remain here for a long time. Widespread use of ebooks presupposes a widespread use of ereaders, and that will still take some time to happen. Even when that happens there will be a not irrelevant portion of the market that will resist using ereaders. Paper books have a enormous emotional and affective capital in our culture and that resists very well to time.
Ebooks have still a long way to go to until they are so omnipresent, versatile and durable than a paperbook. They are getting there but the same way that the internet would kill TV or TV would kill radio and so on, ebooks will create an option to paperbooks, not replace them.

[nyrath]

Originally Posted by Lady Fitzgerald

That's when you start preaching about backups.

One is far more likely to loose p-books to natural catastrophe than e-books that have been backed up offsite as well as onsite.

The problem is that e-books can become unreadable due to the mere passage of time.

http://hnn.us/roundup/entries/26409.html

"Digital media can be very ephemeral. They can decay," says Anne Okerson, of the Council on Library and Information Resources. "For example, will a Word or Word Perfect document still be readable in 10 years, several versions later? Mine aren't ... how about a CD? Doubtful."

Not to mention problems with media. I've got a bunch of data on 3.5 inch floppy disks, but nowadays I do not have easy access to a 3.5 floppy disk drive. And that was only about 15 years worth of obsolescence.

[Salgueiros]

Originally Posted by nyrath

The problem is that e-books can become unreadable due to the mere passage of time.

http://hnn.us/roundup/entries/26409.html



Not to mention problems with media. I've got a bunch of data on 3.5 inch floppy disks, but nowadays I do not have easy access to a 3.5 floppy disk drive. And that was only about 15 years worth of obsolescence.

That is a very good point in favour of paper books! I remember some versions of software being retro-compatible but only for the latest versions. In hardware that is a lot more difficult since the basic principle on how the devices work change (i am thinking about magnetic tapes and lasers for example).

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by nyrath

The problem is that e-books can become unreadable due to the mere passage of time.

http://hnn.us/roundup/entries/26409.html



Not to mention problems with media. I've got a bunch of data on 3.5 inch floppy disks, but nowadays I do not have easy access to a 3.5 floppy disk drive. And that was only about 15 years worth of obsolescence.

I recently mentioned this somewhere else. Backed up data is not static; it has to keep up with current technology. Whose fault is it if you didn't transfer your data from 3.5" to more current technology?

Electronic data is fragile but the beauty of it is it is easily duplicated, allowing it to be stored in multiple locations, and can be easily transferred to more current media, avoiding the problem of obsolescence. When one has multiple back ups in more than one location, a disaster (fire, flood, theft, etc.) on one location is not likely to wipe out the data in the other location.

CDs are a poor media for back ups because the dyes used will deteriorate over time. The rate of deterioration will vary from manufacturer to manufacturer but the average usable life is about five years. Hard drives are much safer.

If one has a broadband connection, reliable online back up services with unlimited capacity can had for $5 a month or less. These are an excelent supplement to local backups. People may complain about the cost of online storage and the cost of extra hard drives for local back ups but what is the cost if a thief makes off with your computer and the data on it? What if a fire destroys your computer (which also has your inventory list of belongings on it) and the extra hard drive with your only back up?

[Ravensknight]

Originally Posted by Lady Fitzgerald

You're still thinking inside the box. Why does it have to be on a coffee table? Why does it even have to be a closed book? What do you think will catch people's eye more, a closed book or an active display on the wall?

It isn't about catching people's eyes, not really. Most coffeetable books are simply meant to look good lying around [kind of like me ]. You seem to be describing more of a virtual picture.

What tech? I ran a DVI to HDMI cable from my computer to my TV. The guy at Fry's told me what kind of cable I needed when I told him what I had (by pointing and saying this and this) and wanted to do. Information on how to run a slide show and what software to use is but a Google away. If this computer challenged old broad can work it out, anyone can.

Um, first off, you're ON Mobileread, posting. That says a LOT.

Second, my parents don't even know what DVI or HDMI is. My aunt doesn't know how to adequately use google.

Third, just because you have the instructions doesn't mean you can make the connection. I have written down, several times, how to post pictures on Facebook for several older people I know. It doesn't matter because while they can do it by rote, if something is even the slightest bit OFF, they don't know how to compensate.

and as a guy who's been in the A/V area for over a decade, I know it doesn't take MUCH AT ALL to throw things out of wack. One wrong software setting, hidden away some odd place in windows, makes it impossible.

So fantastic for you for being able to put all that together. I think that is awesome. But don't go making the assumption that everybody else your age can as well. Or that it will go as easy for others as for you.

Finally, [phew ], why do I have to think outside the box? The box defines what is inside of it. you want something else [like what you did], do that. But don't break my box because your idea doesn't fit inside it. Go get your own box, hahahaha.

Oh, on subject. I don't think paper will be gone in 5 years. Paper is so cheap that in developing countries, it will hang on for decades to come. Email hasn't gotten rid of mail yet, but mail IS becoming more and more scarce.

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

It isn't about catching people's eyes, not really. Most coffeetable books are simply meant to look good lying around [kind of like me ]. You seem to be describing more of a virtual picture...

I'm one of those odd people who believe in form following function. I see a coffee table book, I'll look at it. If I were to put one on the coffee table, it will be there to be looked at, not look good lying around. Putting the images on an an unused TV screen just happens to be another way of displaying the images inside.

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

Um, first off, you're ON Mobileread, posting. That says a LOT...

You're too kind. If I knew everything I needed to know about e-books, etc. I wouldn't be here. My primary purpose for being here is to learn and, believe me, I have learned a lot.

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

...Second, my parents don't even know what DVI or HDMI is...

Neither did I when I went in to get the cable. I pointed out which kinds of sockets I had on my computer and on my TV and the Fry's guy told me what they were and what I needed. I also read the directions that came with the TV which helped a lot. I have learned a lot since then.

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

...Third, just because you have the instructions doesn't mean you can make the connection. I have written down, several times, how to post pictures on Facebook for several older people I know. It doesn't matter because while they can do it by rote, if something is even the slightest bit OFF, they don't know how to compensate.

and as a guy who's been in the A/V area for over a decade, I know it doesn't take MUCH AT ALL to throw things out of wack. One wrong software setting, hidden away some odd place in windows, makes it impossible.

So fantastic for you for being able to put all that together. I think that is awesome. But don't go making the assumption that everybody else your age can as well. Or that it will go as easy for others as for you...

Check out my early posts (and some of the recent ones) in the calibre forum and you will see how computer illiterate I was at that time (it hasn't improved much since then). One thing I've learned when getting instructions from geeks is to impress on them how little I know. What is common knowledge for them is gobbledygook for me so I have to tell them to walk me through it every detailed, little step by every detailed, little step. If I don't get something, I'm not afraid to say so. And I'm not afraid to ask for help. I've also learned when giving out directions myself to not asume the person I'm giving the directions to already knows anything.

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

...Finally, [phew ], why do I have to think outside the box? The box defines what is inside of it. you want something else [like what you did], do that. But don't break my box because your idea doesn't fit inside it. Go get your own box, hahahaha...

I just said you were not thinking outside the box; I didn't say you had to think outside the box. And I already have a box. Don't go messin' with my box and I won't break yours.

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

...Oh, on subject. I don't think paper will be gone in 5 years. Paper is so cheap that in developing countries, it will hang on for decades to come. Email hasn't gotten rid of mail yet, but mail IS becoming more and more scarce.

There we are in full agreement. Even in this country, paper is still cheaper.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Salgueiros

That is a very good point in favour of paper books! I remember some versions of software being retro-compatible but only for the latest versions. In hardware that is a lot more difficult since the basic principle on how the devices work change (i am thinking about magnetic tapes and lasers for example).

Well, mostly it's a good argument for backups and standardized formats. I can open an HTML document from 10 years ago, and a TXT file from 20 years ago. Acting like digital files will ultimately fail, so why back them up, is a lot like assuming paper books will rot, so you leave them out in the rain. Properly stored digital files can last as long as paper, if not longer, if you store them properly.