When will eBooks take over from print?

[Richey79]

Just had a look to see if I could find some more reliable statistics. Frustrating. Within a short time-frame, I couldn't find what I was looking for for global computer ownership and usage. Mostly it was Yahoo answers (Swiftian Yahoos, perhaps?). I'd be interested if anyone could find a decent set of stats for this.

The average of what I saw seemed to be anywhere from 3-15% for global computer ownership, and 15ish% for computer access.



As a couple of posters said, it'll probably be mobile phone (or some other mobile device rather than PC) access that will be important for global ebook take-up. Another interesting question is what proportion of people in less-economically-developed nations have a mobile phone that was produced in the last five years. Anything earlier than that certainly won't be a 'Smartphone', or capable of being used as a reader.

It will be interesting to see whether ebooks make it to such countries on devices that are already owned by the populace (as a secondary function), or whether charities/NGOs will intervene to provide reader devices. I suppose it's likely to depend on which technologies become cheapest to develop most quickly. I don't think readers in these countries will be too troubled by the 'which type of screen is best to prevent eye-strain' debates we see on MR.

[cvkemp]

There will be paper books around a long time. Why there is certain data that just does not show correctly on a screen. It could change but I do not see it happening for a long time. I do love reading as much as I can on a ereader or small computer.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by Richey79

As a couple of posters said, it'll probably be mobile phone (or some other mobile device rather than PC) access that will be important for global ebook take-up.

That's been my assumption from the beginning. I see dedicated readers as a niche market.

A friend who has a dedicated reader and a smartphone reader app talked about the convenience increasing the number of books she bought and read, because she could read anywhere, at any time. She might not carry her dedicated reader around when traveling, but always had her phone, and could do things like read while waiting in line for something.

Yes, you can do that with a dedicated reader, or a paper book, but you may not wish to carry them everywhere you go. You will have your phone.

My reader of choice is a PDA which is not a smartphone. But it goes with me everywhere, and provides similar convenience. (My cellphone is the smallest cheapest model Nokia makes. All it does is place/receive calls and SMS, and that's all I want it to do.) I have no problem carrying both.
______
Dennis

[Sonny Blount]

I think so many people posting here, as early adopters, have been hammered with all the resistance arguments that people give.

I think the ipad has been the beginning of introducing ebook reading to the mainstream. Most people have hardly been aware it exist until this year.

Vinyl has a superior 'feel' to digital downloads, but people tend to talk about how good vinyl is and then download the mp3. There will always be coffee table books and some technica; and picture books in physical formats, but general reading will be done mainly on ebooks closer to 2012 than 2015.

It is likely that the bulk of the trade will be done on phones which are becoming the convergence device for so many technologies, and this vehicle is likely to bring more books to 2nd & 3rd world countries than paperbacks ever have. A paperback book collection is a very western middle class luxury.

[GA Russell]

I can't speak about the third world, but I just can't see many Americans doing much reading on their phones.

[JeremyZ]

Eventually, paper will be obsolete as a reading medium. Old copies will always be around, just for museums.

Some day, everyone will have an e-reader and all the literature will be available everywhere. Just like stone tablets and papyrus scrolls are obsolete mediums (but still legible) so will paper.

[carld]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

And then publishers cut their own throats by agreeing with Amazon to accept less money for ebooks, and agreeing to require the public to pay more. I can't think what they were doing - less money and fewer sales, all to turn new release ebooks from loss-leaders for Amazon into a revenue stream for Amazon.

Have to argue a small point. The publishers didn't agree with Amazon. Amazon wanted no part of agency pricing, and fought against it. The publishers forced Amazon into accepting it.

[Sonny Blount]

Originally Posted by GA Russell

I can't speak about the third world, but I just can't see many Americans doing much reading on their phones.

I would assume that phones will perform better than they currently do as ereaders in the near future.

Its the device you always have with you. Whenever there is an unexpected wait, you will have your phone, and on a bus or plane or at a cafe it is so convenient.

I would expect westerners to have a tablet or ereader at home for serious reading.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by carld

Have to argue a small point. The publishers didn't agree with Amazon. Amazon wanted no part of agency pricing, and fought against it. The publishers forced Amazon into accepting it.

I think you're right. Apologies to Amazon.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by JeremyZ

Eventually, paper will be obsolete as a reading medium. Old copies will always be around, just for museums.

Some day, everyone will have an e-reader and all the literature will be available everywhere. Just like stone tablets and papyrus scrolls are obsolete mediums (but still legible) so will paper.

The question is when that someday will be. I do not expect it to be in my lifetime. For that matter, if I had kids, I wouldn't expect it to be in thier lifetimes.
______
Dennis

[pdurrant]

[QUOTE=DMcCunney;1093432]The question is when that someday will be. I do not expect it to be in my lifetime. For that matter, if I had kids, I wouldn't expect it to be in thier lifetimes.

I expect to see the paper book relegated to being just special editions for collectors within the next 40 years. (Which, with a bit of luck, is in my lifetime.)

I'll be astonished* if it hasn't happen by 2100. (Which, with a bit more luck, will be in my children's lifetimes.)

And, although I don't expect it, it might even happen before 2030.


*Of course, I won't be astonished, as I won't be around to be astonished, unless medical science makes some really significant advances in gerontology.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

I expect to see the paper book relegated to being just special editions for collectors within the next 40 years. (Which, with a bit of luck, is in my lifetime.)

Where? I think that's possible for a developed first world economy like the US or most of Europe. Beyond that, it gets harder.

Ebook penetration like that requires that all readers have devices to display them, the means of getting them, and the supporting infrastructure that will make it possible. There are lots of places where that isn't true and won't be any time soon.
______
Dennis

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by GA Russell

I can't speak about the third world, but I just can't see many Americans doing much reading on their phones.

I can. So can others. Why do you think Amazon released a Kindle reader app for the iPhone, and now for Android?

Almost everyone has a cellphone. Many, if not most, are phones that can run an app that can read ebooks, and have the storage capacity to hold them.

And many of those phones have data plans and Internet access, so that you can browse a site, and buy and download a book on your phone. (It's why Amazon released the Kindle apps - they want to sell ebooks.)

It's always a mistake to think you are representative of the market. The fact that you might do or not do something doesn't mean everyone else will share your habits. You might not be interested in reading an ebook on your smartphone, but a lot of other people will.
______
Dennis

[Sonny Blount]

http://www.informationisbeautiful.ne...usic-industry/

Music went from Vinyl to cassette in 10 years, cassette to CD in 10 years, and CD to mp3 in 10 years.

Each of these formats required the purchase of new playback equipment worth in real terms more than an ereader.

I believe the case for a physical cd or lp is slightly stronger than the need for a physical novel, yet look how quickly people have come to mp3s when then price for an album is a third of the CD.

Ebooks will be the dominant reading format before 2015 and bricks and mortar bookstores that don't exhibit dynamic adaptation will start going under shortly thereafter (although CD stores have stubbornly clung on all over the place by incorporating movies, books, and coffee in what were music only stores).

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by Sonny Blount

http://www.informationisbeautiful.ne...usic-industry/

Music went from Vinyl to cassette in 10 years, cassette to CD in 10 years, and CD to mp3 in 10 years.

It actually went vinyl->CD. Cassette was an alternate format to vinyl, not a replacement, and provided a means to have music in a portable format.

I knew lots of folks with LPs and turntable to play them. Many also had cassette players. I can't think of any offhand who only had cassette players, or replaced vinyl with cassettes. (I still have a turntable, and a lot of vinyl.)

Each of these formats required the purchase of new playback equipment worth in real terms more than an ereader.

Sure, And people migrated because they thought it offered value (like getting a cassette player to complement the turntable and have portable music), or because they thought they had to (like conversion from vinyl to CD). MP3 players bear the same relation to CDs that cassettes do to vinyl - they're portable.

We are nowhere near the point in the evolution of ebooks where people will migrate because they think they have to, as paper books are going away. So the question is what additional value an ereader and electronic books offers over paper. Portability is one potential source of value, but may not be sufficient by itself.

I believe the case for a physical cd or lp is slightly stronger than the need for a physical novel, yet look how quickly people have come to mp3s when then price for an album is a third of the CD.

If you have the MP3s, you can burn your own CD if you want to.

You get the physical CD, I think, largely because everything may not be available as MP3s. iTunes encourages checking picking - getting only a few popular songs to load on your iPod - and has raised the bar for bands because it's much more important to make the album especially strong to make it worth having. It's almost a reversion to the period before the 60's, when what most kids bought were singles, and albums were things others bought for you as gifts. Albums had the singles, and filler of varying quality.

As FM radio became dominant, playlists expanded, and more bands wrote and recorded their own music, the LP became the focus, and people bought albums, not singles. There was more pressure to create albums that had more to offer than a hit single or two.

The rise of the MP3 and the emergence of iTunes has reestablished the importance of the individual song, and if you can get just the few songs you want, why buy the album?
______
Dennis