When will eBooks take over from print?

simonroyle · 09-03-2010, 05:09 AM

We've all read the WSJ, the Huffington Post and the myriad of blogs on this subject, but what do you think? When will ebooks take over from print, or are ebooks "just a fad" as I read on a blog comment the other day.

Sweetpea · 09-03-2010, 05:41 AM

Never. And not because of the smell. But because people will always want that physical copy to show off.

Clancy_s · 09-03-2010, 07:48 AM

Define "takeover". Outnumber, for prose - within 10 years.

Entirely replace - IMO, never.

Richey79 · 09-03-2010, 08:35 AM

I agree with Clancy.

Worldwide computer ownership is estimated to be something less than 5% (just as an indication of technological-penetration. The ebooks that really proliferate may well be those that don't need to be connected to a computer). The only way ebooks will overtake pbooks in the majority of the globe - with their durability and ability to work without being charged - is through the one-laptop-per-child project, or solid state libraries that are plugged straight into a television.

Then you have the mass of people in the wealthy parts of the globe who will either prefer pbooks, or use them alongside ebooks for the foreseeable future.

There'll have to be much more powerful carrots and sticks before people in general start buying more ebooks than pbooks.

'Take over from' needs to be defined. That's going to represent a fairly arbitrarily-chosen point, unless ebooks get to a point where they are causing printing presses and pbook publishers to shut down.

pdurrant · 09-03-2010, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by simonroyle

We've all read the WSJ, the Huffington Post and the myriad of blogs on this subject, but what do you think? When will ebooks take over from print, or are ebooks "just a fad" as I read on a blog comment the other day.

If by "take over" we mean that more ebooks will be sold world-wide than print books, I think within the next ten years.

GhostHawk · 09-03-2010, 08:55 AM

Look at "tipping points" where did CD's start outselling Vinyl, and how fast did that happen compared to how fast people "thought" it would happen.

Same for DVD vs VCR, etc, etc.

If its going to happen, the commercial side will switch before most of the public is ready for it. And yes I do think its going to happen quickly. The avalanche is headed down the hill, it just hasn't hit the bottom of the valley yet.

2012 might be a touch early, for sure 2015 the trend will be set and markets will be adjusting. On the other hand I don't see Hardcovers ever going away completely, there will always be a market. But I suspect you'll see them looking more and more like coffee table books. Rich in Illustrations and Art they'll be laying around as a status symbol.

Mass market Paperbacks on the other hand could easily be on the way out in 3 - 5 years.

simonroyle · 09-03-2010, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richey79

I agree with Clancy.

Worldwide computer ownership is estimated to be something less than 5% (just as an indication of technological-penetration.

I think a better indication is mobile phones. Moore's Law applies here and within 5 years there's going to be about 5 billion smart phones in use... Markets like Indonesia, India are going to be huge consumers of phone apps (read books). Not computers - phones.

speakingtohe · 09-03-2010, 10:51 AM

For me last April. For many the day after they die.
I think when tablet devices become common among schoolchildren and/or are commonly used in schools as study tools, that generation will view pbooks as oddities.

eric11210 · 09-03-2010, 11:29 AM

I voted within five years. However, when I say that I mean I expect print books will start to become like video tapes were back around the beginning of the 21st century, i.e. still available, but clearly eclipsed by dvds. I don't expect print books to completely disappear ever. Even 200 years from now, I expect that print books will still be in use, however they will be collectors items that are made up specially on request and you won't be able to buy them anymore. Within five years I expect ebooks to go mainstream and start taking over the way DVD did with video tapes. That futuristic version where all print books must be special ordered and are considered a decadent extra? Maybe 30-40 years from now. I'd say 10 years from now pbooks will be down to just the bestsellers in airports and what not, but it will take much, much longer for them to become so rare that you have to special order a pbook. For that to happen, we'll have to get to the point of disposable ebook readers which can be purchased very cheaply for the person who just wants to read one book and that's going to take a very long time.

ProfCrash · 09-03-2010, 11:38 AM

Five years.

Paper books will still be a large part of the market in five years but I think e-books will surpass Paper Books in sales in five years. As more kids use computers in school and at home, schools will find it cheaper and easier to use e-textbooks. While e-readers might not be the best for reading e-textbooks, a laptop or home computer works just fine.

While it is true that a large portion of the world does not have access to computers the way the Developed World, I wonder how many paper books the people living in those areas are actually reading. Additionally, e-readers and net books are making it easier for Aid agencies and international organizations that support education across the globe to provide inexpensive devices. Which brings into play e-textbooks in developing areas.

Paper books will never go away but they are going to diminish pretty quickly.

Kumabjorn · 09-03-2010, 11:42 AM

How long did it take for 33 1/3 rpm records to overtake 76 rpm records?
How long for CDs to overtake vinyl? For Mp3 to overtake CDs? There are some significant differences in time lines, but the end result is always unavoidable. I think smartphones will be the E-reader of choice for most people. Dedicated E-readers are for snobs, toffs, nerds, geeks, otaku and me!

Corpbob · 09-03-2010, 11:53 AM

December 21st 2012 is my Pastor's 42nd Birthday. He's read Hitch Hiker's Guide so he's familiar with the significant of "42." LOL

We're planning a huge birthday party! I told him I'd buy him an expense gift, but what's the point? He said to just charge it....

3 signs of the end of the world

1) Bob Dylan releases a Christmas Album (Happened 2009)
2) Chicago Cubs win the World Series.
3) Sarah Palin is elected President

neilmarr · 09-03-2010, 11:56 AM

Why not ask again tomorrow, Simon? Attitudes and learned predictions are being changed daily, at least as often as underwear. Right now, I'd say five years to break the ice, ten years to break the habit. Cheers. Neil

carld · 09-03-2010, 12:17 PM

Yes, ebooks will eventually dominate the book market, they just make too much sense. I'm guessing by 2015 the switch-over will be well underway.

Well never lose paperbooks completely, but digital readers of one sort or another, slates, phones, ereaders, will dominate in time.

kjk · 09-03-2010, 12:25 PM

2007: Kindle Released
2010: Kindle eBook sales outpace hardcover sales
2011:"I predict we will surpass paperback sales sometime in the next nine to 12 months"
2012-2013?: "Sometime after that, we'll surpass the combination of paperback and hardcover"

I'm going with Bezos on this one-Amazon will be selling more eBooks than paper books by 2012-2013, with the rest of the industry following close behind.

View Poll Results: When will ebooks take over from print?
2012 - just before the end of the world	11	9.91%
2015 - Five years no more	34	30.63%
2020 - Within the decade, the decadence of print will end	39	35.14%
2030 - Because there's no trees left	15	13.51%
It'll never happen, smelling books is too important to me	12	10.81%
Voters: 111. You may not vote on this poll

09-03-2010, 05:09 AM	#1
simonroyle Addict Posts: 309 Karma: 500370 Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Bangkok Device: kindle	When will eBooks take over from print? We've all read the WSJ, the Huffington Post and the myriad of blogs on this subject, but what do you think? When will ebooks take over from print, or are ebooks "just a fad" as I read on a blog comment the other day.

09-03-2010, 08:35 AM	#4
Richey79 mrkrgnao Posts: 241 Karma: 237248 Join Date: May 2010 Device: PRS650, K3 Wireless, Galaxy S3, iPad 3.	I agree with Clancy. Worldwide computer ownership is estimated to be something less than 5% (just as an indication of technological-penetration. The ebooks that really proliferate may well be those that don't need to be connected to a computer). The only way ebooks will overtake pbooks in the majority of the globe - with their durability and ability to work without being charged - is through the one-laptop-per-child project, or solid state libraries that are plugged straight into a television. Then you have the mass of people in the wealthy parts of the globe who will either prefer pbooks, or use them alongside ebooks for the foreseeable future. There'll have to be much more powerful carrots and sticks before people in general start buying more ebooks than pbooks. 'Take over from' needs to be defined. That's going to represent a fairly arbitrarily-chosen point, unless ebooks get to a point where they are causing printing presses and pbook publishers to shut down. Last edited by Richey79; 09-03-2010 at 08:37 AM.

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09-03-2010, 05:41 AM	#2
Sweetpea Grand Sorcerer Posts: 9,707 Karma: 32763414 Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Krewerd Device: Pocketbook Inkpad 4 Color; Samsung Galaxy Tab S6	Never. And not because of the smell. But because people will always want that physical copy to show off.

09-03-2010, 07:48 AM	#3
Clancy_s Zealot Posts: 133 Karma: 1010308 Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Newcastle, NSW Device: Kobo Glo HD	Define "takeover". Outnumber, for prose - within 10 years. Entirely replace - IMO, never.

09-03-2010, 08:55 AM	#6
GhostHawk Data Privateer! Posts: 586 Karma: 62887 Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Fargo ND Device: Ectaco Jetbook& Jetbook Lite	Look at "tipping points" where did CD's start outselling Vinyl, and how fast did that happen compared to how fast people "thought" it would happen. Same for DVD vs VCR, etc, etc. If its going to happen, the commercial side will switch before most of the public is ready for it. And yes I do think its going to happen quickly. The avalanche is headed down the hill, it just hasn't hit the bottom of the valley yet. 2012 might be a touch early, for sure 2015 the trend will be set and markets will be adjusting. On the other hand I don't see Hardcovers ever going away completely, there will always be a market. But I suspect you'll see them looking more and more like coffee table books. Rich in Illustrations and Art they'll be laying around as a status symbol. Mass market Paperbacks on the other hand could easily be on the way out in 3 - 5 years.

09-03-2010, 10:51 AM	#8
speakingtohe Wizard Posts: 4,812 Karma: 26912940 Join Date: Apr 2010 Device: sony PRS-T1 and T3, Kobo Mini and Aura HD, Tablet	For me last April. For many the day after they die. I think when tablet devices become common among schoolchildren and/or are commonly used in schools as study tools, that generation will view pbooks as oddities.

09-03-2010, 11:29 AM	#9
eric11210 Addict Posts: 295 Karma: 400001 Join Date: Aug 2010 Device: Sony Reader PRS-600	I voted within five years. However, when I say that I mean I expect print books will start to become like video tapes were back around the beginning of the 21st century, i.e. still available, but clearly eclipsed by dvds. I don't expect print books to completely disappear ever. Even 200 years from now, I expect that print books will still be in use, however they will be collectors items that are made up specially on request and you won't be able to buy them anymore. Within five years I expect ebooks to go mainstream and start taking over the way DVD did with video tapes. That futuristic version where all print books must be special ordered and are considered a decadent extra? Maybe 30-40 years from now. I'd say 10 years from now pbooks will be down to just the bestsellers in airports and what not, but it will take much, much longer for them to become so rare that you have to special order a pbook. For that to happen, we'll have to get to the point of disposable ebook readers which can be purchased very cheaply for the person who just wants to read one book and that's going to take a very long time.

09-03-2010, 11:38 AM	#10
ProfCrash Tea Enthusiast Posts: 8,554 Karma: 75384937 Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Somewhere in the USA Device: Kindle1, Kindle DX Graphite, K3 3G, IPad 3, PW2	Five years. Paper books will still be a large part of the market in five years but I think e-books will surpass Paper Books in sales in five years. As more kids use computers in school and at home, schools will find it cheaper and easier to use e-textbooks. While e-readers might not be the best for reading e-textbooks, a laptop or home computer works just fine. While it is true that a large portion of the world does not have access to computers the way the Developed World, I wonder how many paper books the people living in those areas are actually reading. Additionally, e-readers and net books are making it easier for Aid agencies and international organizations that support education across the globe to provide inexpensive devices. Which brings into play e-textbooks in developing areas. Paper books will never go away but they are going to diminish pretty quickly.

09-03-2010, 11:42 AM	#11
Kumabjorn Basculocolpic Posts: 4,356 Karma: 20181319 Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Sweden Device: Kindle 3 WiFi, Kindle 4SO, Kindle for Android, Sony PRS-350 and PRS-T1	How long did it take for 33 1/3 rpm records to overtake 76 rpm records? How long for CDs to overtake vinyl? For Mp3 to overtake CDs? There are some significant differences in time lines, but the end result is always unavoidable. I think smartphones will be the E-reader of choice for most people. Dedicated E-readers are for snobs, toffs, nerds, geeks, otaku and me!

09-03-2010, 11:53 AM	#12
Corpbob Junior Member Posts: 8 Karma: 10 Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Fayetteville, AR USA Device: Pandigital Novel	December 21st 2012 is my Pastor's 42nd Birthday. He's read Hitch Hiker's Guide so he's familiar with the significant of "42." LOL We're planning a huge birthday party! I told him I'd buy him an expense gift, but what's the point? He said to just charge it.... 3 signs of the end of the world 1) Bob Dylan releases a Christmas Album (Happened 2009) 2) Chicago Cubs win the World Series. 3) Sarah Palin is elected President

09-03-2010, 11:56 AM	#13
neilmarr neilmarr Posts: 7,215 Karma: 6000059 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Monaco-Menton, France Device: sony	Why not ask again tomorrow, Simon? Attitudes and learned predictions are being changed daily, at least as often as underwear. Right now, I'd say five years to break the ice, ten years to break the habit. Cheers. Neil

09-03-2010, 12:17 PM	#14
carld Wizard Posts: 2,698 Karma: 4748723 Join Date: Dec 2007 Device: Kindle Paperwhite	Yes, ebooks will eventually dominate the book market, they just make too much sense. I'm guessing by 2015 the switch-over will be well underway. Well never lose paperbooks completely, but digital readers of one sort or another, slates, phones, ereaders, will dominate in time.

09-03-2010, 12:25 PM	#15
kjk . Posts: 3,408 Karma: 5647231 Join Date: Oct 2008 Device: never enough	2007: Kindle Released 2010: Kindle eBook sales outpace hardcover sales 2011:"I predict we will surpass paperback sales sometime in the next nine to 12 months" 2012-2013?: "Sometime after that, we'll surpass the combination of paperback and hardcover" I'm going with Bezos on this one-Amazon will be selling more eBooks than paper books by 2012-2013, with the rest of the industry following close behind.