Nicolas Negroponte: The Physical Book is Dead in Five Years

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by GA Russell

Oh yes, I agree with your main point.

Just checking.

Cause I used to be in the "slow, steady adoption" camp (mostly because of the impact of BPH obstructionism) and the economic tipping-point idea is new to me.

Now, the more I think on it, the more I think we're in for a BPH "betrayal" of print books. Too much of print book economics is tied to batch printing and returns, especially of "bestselling" hardcovers, for the business to sustain much volume erosion. The business model is unsustainable and once they realize their rearguard action (the Price-fix scheme) is not enough they're just as likely to panic and blow everything up. Just like the record companies stopped accepting returns (yes, I do remember that now), I think the BPHs are going to add insult to injury and stop taking back pbooks from B&M retailers at some point in the next couple of years.

Which now that I think of it, is another good reason for Borders and B&N to try to go private ASAP. Cause if that news hits while they're publicly traded...

I'm going to chew on this for a while. The consequences...

It's starting to look like there's a storm coming to bookselling and a lot sooner than most of us expected it.

[Solitaire1]

Originally Posted by Kumabjorn

How on earth did a post about NN's prognosis about the future of e-books slide into vinyl vs. CDs?

Originally Posted by Maggie Leung

People comparing (dis)similarities between the transition of music and the transition of books. That and meandering, lol.

The transition from a physical book (pbook) majority to an ebook majority has been a slow process and will likely take a long time. There are many factors in this, such as the issue of DRM. With pbooks, you basically buy a book and can use it anywhere without restriction, but DRM limits a specific ebook to only certain ereaders. This is a strong advantage of pbooks. Another factor is that many types of books (such as comic books) are not fully possible with ebook readers yet, while pbooks can handle any type of book. While ebooks do have advantages over pbooks, it is not the overwhelming advantage when reading that occured in the realm of audio.

Compare this to the movement of music from analog (LP and 45s) to digital (CD). First, CDs were a massive improvement over the formats they replaced: No more needles and cartridges to regularly replace, no more need to clean records before each play for the best sound, no more replacing worn out records (this is a reason why Pink Floyd's "Dark Side Of The Moon" dropped off the Billboard chart after more than a decade [per Wikipedia]), the ability to instantly go to a specific song, and better long-term sound quality. Added to this is the fact that CDs had no DRM, you could take any CD that you buy anywhere in the world and play it on any CD player in the world. I think the main reason that music transitioned to CD so quickly is that the new format offered so many advantages over the analog formats, with almost no disadvantages.

To close: while I do see ebooks eventually becoming the dominant format for readering, pbooks will still retain a significant place in the reading industry.

[luqmaninbmore]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

It is one thing to talk about people's preferences and another to talk about economic forces. If the volume of print book sales declines to the point a new release has to sell for $50 to justify even a POD edition those preferences are going to change pretty quickly.

.

I think the printers would have to incredibly incompetent in order for a POD edition to cost $50. Even now I can order them for around $15. The cost of POD books coming from the "Expresso Machines" is about $3 for the materials. I could definitely see POD taking over as the main source for paper books, but the cost of those POD books will probably go down as this type of technology becomes more prominent.

[CyGuy]

Personally, I could see ebooks becoming far more common and paper books becoming less common. I love reading ebooks myself. However, there are a couple of small issue to overcome and one HUGE issue to overcome.

First, DRM in any form must be made illegal. Any ebook that is available for sale to the general public must not have any form of DRM, ever, for any reason.

Second, a standard format must be selected.

Third, the current pricing scheme is way off. The price of any ebook should be approx half the cost of the cheapest paperback version.

[HithNibth]

This is an emotive subject. Ebooks taking the place of paper books - hmmm. Logically it will happen. Not because paper books are old fashioned or outdated but because at some time in the future, there will be no resources to spare to make paper (or paper substitute). Having said that - things do change. We no longer publish (in any great numbers anyway) on stone, clay tablets, tree bark, animal skins, papyrus and parchment. I don't think ereaders are developed enough yet to add paper to the list.


Bri

[hrickh]

Originally Posted by CyGuy

Personally, I could see ebooks becoming far more common and paper books becoming less common. I love reading ebooks myself. However, there are a couple of small issue to overcome and one HUGE issue to overcome.

First, DRM in any form must be made illegal. Any ebook that is available for sale to the general public must not have any form of DRM, ever, for any reason.

Second, a standard format must be selected.

Third, the current pricing scheme is way off. The price of any ebook should be approx half the cost of the cheapest paperback version.

I think once DRM is out of the way, a standard format won't matter so much, as long as it can easily be converted from one format to another. It's already easily doable from one (non-DRM, open) format to another.

I agree with the cost too... Right not it's WAY too expensive.

R.
==

[Elfwreck]

Originally Posted by CyGuy

Personally, I could see ebooks becoming far more common and paper books becoming less common. I love reading ebooks myself. However, there are a couple of small issue to overcome and one HUGE issue to overcome.

First, DRM in any form must be made illegal. Any ebook that is available for sale to the general public must not have any form of DRM, ever, for any reason.

Nice thought. Not gonna happen. Does "all forms of DRM" include locked PDFs? Word docs set to read-only? Enhanced ebooks with videos that can only be viewed on proprietary software?

Second, a standard format must be selected.

Because printed books come in exactly one format: one type of paper, one font, one type of binding. They are all readable under all lighting conditions and can be handled the same way.

A standard format isn't going to happen because different types of ebooks, like pbooks, will have different customer bases. A dominant-marketplace format may emerge--I'm voting on ePub--but it won't drive PDF into nonexistence; it won't drive out plain HTML or RTF in some markets, either.

Third, the current pricing scheme is way off. The price of any ebook should be approx half the cost of the cheapest paperback version.

I do like this. I expect it'll be quite a while before that happens.

The real thing holding ebooks back from taking over most paperback sales is lack of easy, legit ways of sharing them with friends. *That's* the technical hurdle that need to be tackled, and publishers need to get over the idea that every purchase is only going to be read by one person.

[tomsem]

Originally Posted by Maggie Leung

Yes, thanks. Anyway, I'm happy with CDs and can convert to MP3.

And yes, DVD players can still play CDs.

BluRay players play CDs as well. In fact, ours will even play SA-CDs.

[Ea]

Originally Posted by Solitaire1

.... Another factor is that many types of books (such as comic books) are not fully possible with ebook readers yet, while pbooks can handle any type of book. While ebooks do have advantages over pbooks, it is not the overwhelming advantage when reading that occured in the realm of audio.

Most definitely. Screens are still way too small for comics - and they need to be in colour, too. An iPad, at about twice the screen size could do.

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by Ea

Most definitely. Screens are still way too small for comics - and they need to be in colour, too. An iPad, at about twice the screen size could do.

I find that the iPad works great for comics.

[Ea]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

I find that the iPad works great for comics.

Letter-sized? That's the standard size of those I read. I would think the screen is too small for that.

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by Ea

Letter-sized? That's the standard size of those I read. I would think the screen is too small for that.

What I did, and would recommend if you are interested in trying it out, is to email/DropBox/... yourself a couple of example pages, then go to an Apple store and download them to try out for yourself.
I think that standard sized western comics look fine on the iPad, and in many cases (but not all) double page spreads are readable too, but that doesn't really help you as to whether you would think they were fine, we might have different tolerances.

[Ea]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

What I did, and would recommend if you are interested in trying it out, is to email/DropBox/... yourself a couple of example pages, then go to an Apple store and download them to try out for yourself.
I think that standard sized western comics look fine on the iPad, and in many cases (but not all) double page spreads are readable too, but that doesn't really help you as to whether you would think they were fine, we might have different tolerances.

As far as I can calculate it'll make them about half the original size, and I am worried how well I would be able to read the text, sometimes it's really small - and enjoy the artwork. I don't know what you are reading, but AFAIK American comics are generally 30% smaller than the standard European size (at least those I've seen in the library)
But in any case, as soon as the iPad comes to Denmark, I'll check it out - I can't afford one now, but I'm curious - and thanks for your suggestion

[L.J. Sellers]

As as writer, I'm mentally shifting my focus and career decision-making process toward the idea that print books will become inconsequential during the next five years. In some ways, it will be a relief. In others, it will be quite strange. Will I still hold book signings? What will I give away at conferences? Signed CDs with e-files of my books?
It's the future, and I'm preparing for it.
L.J.

[RDaneel54]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Just checking.

Cause I used to be in the "slow, steady adoption" camp (mostly because of the impact of BPH obstructionism) and the economic tipping-point idea is new to me.

Now, the more I think on it, the more I think we're in for a BPH "betrayal" of print books. Too much of print book economics is tied to batch printing and returns, especially of "bestselling" hardcovers, for the business to sustain much volume erosion. The business model is unsustainable and once they realize their rearguard action (the Price-fix scheme) is not enough they're just as likely to panic and blow everything up. Just like the record companies stopped accepting returns (yes, I do remember that now), I think the BPHs are going to add insult to injury and stop taking back pbooks from B&M retailers at some point in the next couple of years.

Which now that I think of it, is another good reason for Borders and B&N to try to go private ASAP. Cause if that news hits while they're publicly traded...

I'm going to chew on this for a while. The consequences...

It's starting to look like there's a storm coming to bookselling and a lot sooner than most of us expected it.

Good comments. I'm surprised that B&M bookstores for new books still exist. I've even seen local start-ups in the new book business. There must still be some viability in this market.

I do think that when the changes come, the incremental decline will have been behind the scenes for the most part. It will probably involve a shock to the average person, "What happened to the bookstore?"

Dean