eWeek: Kindle & Nook To Dominate

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Quite likely. However, I don't see which competitors will be able to offer anything. Smaller companies don't have the resources, might not have access to content, and any special features they add might get aped by Amazon / B&N / tablets fairly quickly.

Well, that is what we're about to see.
The generic rebadgers (ala Cool-er) are in for serious grief, no doubt.

But the more creative ones? They might carve out nice chunks by zigging instead of zagging. By offering distinct features, aiming at specific markets, partnering with retailers, book clubs, etc.

(Going back to calculators for an instant: look to TI for a vendor that has carved themselves a nice stable business, they go back to the calculator wars of the 70's and they still endure. Few others can claim that.)

There is an enormous market just waiting to be grabbed in K-12 etextbook readers. In corporate document readers that can plug into Sharepoint. In readersfor the academic/research community.

ebooks aren't just about NYT potboilers and disposable fiction.
There is gold in them thar hills. But they're going to have to dig for it;no more getting rich by panning rivers.

[J. Strnad]

I still believe there is a market for a bare bones, low cost ereader.

When Kobo came out, the competition in 6" e-ink readers was basically the Kindle 2 ($259) and the nook ($259). The Kobo was more than $100 cheaper than either one, and they sold like hotcakes. Now we have the stripped down Kindle Wi-Fi at $139 and the nook Wi-Fi at $149 and the price reductions on the Sony ereaders.

I look for Kobo to reduce their price or leave the marketplace. Borders management seems a bit lumbering and ambivalent to me. I don't see them reacting quickly and decisively to any fast-breaking developments. They seem more like a "we'll discuss this at the next board meeting and appoint a committee to make a recommendation that we will compromise after discussion" sort of company. I could be wrong, of course.

Downloading a book from my computer is a non-issue for me. I do it with iTunes and I'm comfortable with the process. For one thing, it's easier to surf the iTunes store from my desktop computer with a real keyboard and a big monitor than from any portable device. Also, I am mature enough not to need need need some tune instantly or I'll just die, you know?

Then there's the fact that I want my ebook file on my computer, not "safely stored" on somebody else's server. So even if I did download a book directly to my ereader, I would later sideload it from there to my home computer anyway, if I could. It's just as easy to go from internet to computer to reader as from internet to reader to computer.

[carld]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Well, that is what we're about to see.
The generic rebadgers (ala Cool-er) are in for serious grief, no doubt.

Cool-er is deader than a doornail, same with iRex, and the Skiff reader from Hearst as well. I don't think we've seen the end of the great e-reader die off just yet either. In-fact I think it's just getting started.

[Alisa]

Originally Posted by J. Strnad

Downloading a book from my computer is a non-issue for me. I do it with iTunes and I'm comfortable with the process. For one thing, it's easier to surf the iTunes store from my desktop computer with a real keyboard and a big monitor than from any portable device. Also, I am mature enough not to need need need some tune instantly or I'll just die, you know?

The reason the wireless connection on the Kindle is so useful to me is not because I want to shop from the device. I almost always shop from my computer but I don't buy the book at that time. I send samples to the Kindle. That way I can read them at my leisure and be certain that I can get the rest of the book when I'm ready for it without particularly interrupting my reading. This way, I have a good idea if I will like the book when I buy it. When I bought paper books, I bought many I didn't like enough to finish. I also would frequently buy a book thinking I'd want to read it next week and then my attention would turn to something else. The wireless allows just-in-time book buying. I read more books while buying fewer than I did before. I won't die if I don't get to move on to the rest of the book after finishing the sample but it is a convenience I find worth the price.

Like you, I didn't see the worth in this when I bought my reader. I bought the Kindle because it was the only reader at the time that offered search, annotation, and dictionary look-up. I thought of the wireless as a novelty I likely wouldn't use all that often. When I started to use the sampling capability I realized just how brilliant it was. I'm perfectly capable of buying books and sideloading them onto a device. I'm on my computer often enough that this isn't particularly inconvenient. However, I can't deny that this has been a much better way for me to buy books.

[SensualPoet]

Kindle to dominate ... check.
Nook to dominate ... jury's out.
Sony to dominate ... please phone home!

Kobo might have an opportunity to carve out a niche: but at $99 not $149. There remains room for barebones attached to an ePub model and library book access. (Woe to Kobo if Amazon strikes a Kindle deal with Overdrive.)

Everyone else ... well, geez, has anyone else sold a million units? 500,000? In many cases, even 50,000? Installed base will matter and it's not surprise that several "established" vendors and several more vapour vendors have collapsed in 2010 -- arguably the first real "Year of the e-reader".

The next battlefield will be books + magazines + newspapers ... and here iPad has a tasty lead. 2011 will bring lower prices on larger e-readers and colour ... plus a deluge of cheaper-than-iPad Android tablets also behaving as credible e-readers and multimedia magazine devices.

Amazon's challenge is to gain enough momentum in 2010 to take it through 2011 as the landscape changes radically again, for the second time in 18 months.

[davidspitzer]

I think the probable two dozen or more android tablets will make about 0% difference to iPad sales. I don't know why it's just a gut feeling I have. Maybe I'm think of he 87 different mp3 players that are for sale that have the same net effect on iPod sales

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by davidspitzer

I think the probable two dozen or more android tablets will make about 0% difference to iPad sales. I don't know why it's just a gut feeling I have.

It may be that the iPad draws from the 100-million strong iPhone customer base.

Android tablets (so far) are best described as webpads rather than media consumption appliances like the iPad. And neither is really much of a computer in Mac/Windows/Linux terms. (Just setting boundaries, okay?)

The iTunes/App store link is central to the iPad value proposition whereas the Android tablet's value starts with the price and the hardware specs. Even the Blackpad and the Palmpad, when they come out, won't be anywhere near the content consumption devices that the iPad it. Not for a long while. The Palmpad might possibly come closer than the Blackpad *if* HP cooks up *upfront* content deals with Rhapsody/Napster/Netflix/Hulu-plus and the like.

Because iPad is an extension of the mature iPxx ecosystem they've had a fully-fleshed experience, out-of-box, from day one which is something that cannot be said for their competitors. The Android "tablets" and the various iPad competitors headed our way are all coming from hardware vendors focused on moving gadgets. It will be up to knowledgeable buyers to figure out where and how to confgure them. Most Android tablets can't even plug in to the Android market! Not newbie friendly. Things will improve but not soon.

In the meantime, the iPad will have free reign for at least the rest of the year.

[Lastblade]

Walmart should come out with its own eReader at $49.99 and dominate.... but then, their audience might not read....

[SensualPoet]

I am certainly not suggesting the iPad sales team are even going to notice that Android tablets are in market in 2010.

The analogy of the 87 mp3 players vs iPods is flawed on two counts. One, there are a lot of people consuming music on mp3 players that are NOT by Apple; and two, Android tablets from very diverse manufacturers will share a common OS and app store.

Android smartphones will probably surpass Blackberry in 2010; they have already done so vs Apple iPhone. Those phones also share the Android tablet app market (same model as Apple). The big loser in all this is Microsoft and Windows 7 which rightly ought to be available from all the usual suspects by now. And, MS has fumbled the smartphone market leaving it effectively sidelined.

Since Amazon will be on Android with its Kindle ebooks, and Apple will not, Apple will again leave itself exposed on the ebook front. The impact on Apple is relatively minimal since they really aren't in the static text ebook game. But Amazon, B&N and Kobo (and maybe Sony) are and Android helps all three with Apple on the sidelines.

[Graham]

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

Android smartphones will probably surpass Blackberry in 2010...

They did as of today in the US:

http://www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives...ket_share.html

Graham

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

The analogy of the 87 mp3 players vs iPods is flawed on two counts. One, there are a lot of people consuming music on mp3 players that are NOT by Apple; and two, Android tablets from very diverse manufacturers will share a common OS and app store.

I think that will be a big step forward for Android. As I understand it, at the moment each tablet manufacturer has to run their oen store, as tablets don't have access to the current smartphone store.

Since Amazon will be on Android with its Kindle ebooks, and Apple will not, Apple will again leave itself exposed on the ebook front. The impact on Apple is relatively minimal since they really aren't in the static text ebook game. But Amazon, B&N and Kobo (and maybe Sony) are and Android helps all three with Apple on the sidelines.

I'm not convinced Apple really cares if the iBookstore suceeds or not. They wanted to have the reading ability in from day one so they could advertise it, and I suspect wanted something they controlled so they didn't end up totally at Amazon's beck and call, but as long as people are buying the hardware I don't think they care which app they are using.

[simplyparticular]

I look for Kobo to reduce their price or leave the marketplace. Borders management seems a bit lumbering and ambivalent to me. I don't see them reacting quickly and decisively to any fast-breaking developments. They seem more like a "we'll discuss this at the next board meeting and appoint a committee to make a recommendation that we will compromise after discussion" sort of company. I could be wrong, of course.

Borders doesn't have deep enough pockets to play the price cut game. They are still deeply in debt from the Kmart spinoff and Waldenbooks rebranding/closings. And they don't own the Kobo reader - Kobo books in Canada does. They're just licensing it and its webstore. So I suspect that gives them less flexibility in setting the price.

[SensualPoet]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

I think that will be a big step forward for Android. As I understand it, at the moment each tablet manufacturer has to run their oen store, as tablets don't have access to the current smartphone store.

Wait five minutes. There is one Android App Market for phones. Shortly it will open up for Android tablets. There aren't any brand name Anroid tablets yet. But, again. Wait five minutes.

[SensualPoet]

Originally Posted by simplyparticular

Borders doesn't have deep enough pockets to play the price cut game. They are still deeply in debt from the Kmart spinoff and Waldenbooks rebranding/closings. And they don't own the Kobo reader - Kobo books in Canada does. They're just licensing it and its webstore. So I suspect that gives them less flexibility in setting the price.

Really. It's unlikely the Kobo is being sold "at cost" at $149 ... so why can't if be sold for $99? And Borders isn't "licensing" the Kobo, they are about 40% owner. So, they have a vested interest -- if the can manage it -- to make it succeed. Border may have its challenges, but Kobo potentially gives them flexibility.

[kjk]

Originally Posted by Graham

They did as of today inthe US:

http://www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives...ket_share.html

Graham

Just to be clear-that is just a Q2 snapshot. RIM still has a larger installed base (around 35%). Here is a chart showing market share in the US since Q2 09:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2182...4?source=yahoo


RIM: 35%
Apple: 28%
Winmo: 15%
Android 13%