Newsweek: Why the iPad Hasn't Killed the Kindle

ekaser · 07-26-2010, 12:29 PM

Interesting article:
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/26/read-on.html

Nothing that a lot of folks here haven't known for a while, but interesting to see it showing up in the mainstream press.

Quote:

Amazon’s Kindle e-reader is a terrific device, but a lot of people, myself included, figured that once Apple’s iPad came out, the poor little Kindle would be toast. The first thing I did at the iPad introduction event was snap a few pictures of a shiny new iPad right next to my Kindle. They came out looking like those pictures where a regular person is standing next to a movie star.

But guess what? Yes, it’s true that the iPad has been a smash hit, selling 3.3 million units in just a few months. But Amazon claims its plucky little Kindle is doing pretty well, too. Amazon won’t give out sales figures, but Forrester Research, a market-analysis firm, reckons Amazon will sell 3.5 million Kindles in the United States this year, bringing its total number in U.S. readers’ hands to 6 million by the end of 2010.

...

I suggested to Bezos that maybe Amazon didn’t care about selling Kindle machines, that maybe the device wasn’t important. He said that wasn’t the case, but that “our goal with the Kindle device is separate from the Kindle bookstore.” Bezos insisted there is a market for “a purpose-built reading device,” as he calls it. “It’s not a Swiss Army knife. It’s not going to do a bunch of different things. We believe reading deserves a dedicated device.” So far, at least, it looks like he’s right.

kjk · 07-26-2010, 01:02 PM

Interesting, so both Forrester and Susquehanna Financial Group believe around 3 million Kindles sold since 2007? I wonder where they are getting their estimates.

kovidgoyal · 07-26-2010, 01:41 PM

Probably from each other

fjtorres · 07-26-2010, 02:36 PM

Well, that estimate is down from the pre-iPad release estimates of 4.03 million.
(At the time, they estimated iPad sales at 1.6 million.)
http://ireaderreview.com/2010/01/24/...via-digitimes/

Still, 3.5 million is plenty good. And iPad cannibalization looks to be minimal (<14%)

BTW, that article has otherwise been right on the money; they predicted 3G readers hitting $199 and WiFi readers hitting $149 back in January.

kjk · 07-26-2010, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Well, that estimate is down from the pre-iPad release estimates of 4.03 million.
(At the time, they estimated iPad sales at 1.6 million.)
http://ireaderreview.com/2010/01/24/...via-digitimes/

Still, 3.5 million is plenty good. And iPad cannibalization looks to be minimal (<14%)

BTW, that article has otherwise been right on the money; they predicted 3G readers hitting $199 and WiFi readers hitting $149 back in January.

Forrester, however, has been pretty far off the mark-in June, they estimated 3.5 million tablets (including the iPad) for the US in all of 2010.

Quote:

“Based on new data from Forrester’s consumer surveys, as well as Apple’s rate of ‘millioning,’ we think our initial forecast was conservative, especially in the short term

But points for coining the term "rate of millioning"

nekokami · 07-26-2010, 02:53 PM

The other day I was showing my iPad to a clerk in a store (I was buying a bag that would hold it) and he said, "I tried to talk my wife into one of those, but she likes her Kindle." I agreed that they have different purposes and strengths. (I got mine to read and annotate PDF journal articles.)

Dulin's Books · 07-26-2010, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kjk

Interesting, so both Forrester and Susquehanna Financial Group believe around 3 million Kindles sold since 2007? I wonder where they are getting their estimates.

display shipments, other component shipments and whispernet traffic

kamm · 07-27-2010, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dulin's Books

display shipments, other component shipments and whispernet traffic

All of which are not public either, right...

Dulin's Books · 07-27-2010, 03:31 PM

all of which are fairly "simple" to get even thought they arent public. various companies specialize in tracking industry info that isnt necessarily "public". For instance PVI sales figures for eink panels available and it doesn't take much more digging from there to find who they went to.

Lady Fitzgerald · 07-27-2010, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kovidgoyal

Probably from each other

It's funny because it's true - Homer Simpson

sianon · 07-27-2010, 05:06 PM

I have had several discussions with the woman who serves in my favoured petrol (gas) station about both the kindle and the Ipad (have showed her both). The other day when I was in there, I asked if she had her kindle yet (the device she had been leaning towards) and she informed me that she had just bought the Ipad instead.

MartinParish · 07-27-2010, 05:46 PM

I like the Kindle and I think the iPad is overrated...but really, it's just a matter of time until someone else comes up with something that will supersede both.

kjk · 07-27-2010, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MartinParish

I like the Kindle and I think the iPad is overrated...but really, it's just a matter of time until someone else comes up with something that will supersede both.

Well sure something will supercede both..but don't bet against it being Amazon and/or Apple

afa · 07-28-2010, 12:24 AM

Amazon.com currently states the Kindle to be "Temporarily Out of Stock". I don't really recall that happening before.

Personally, I suspect that they might have halted production of the current gen Kindle because the new one (Kindle "3", though they won't call it that) must be coming soon.

What do you guys think?

HappyMartin · 07-28-2010, 02:18 AM

Some people like one thing to do lots of things and some people don't, its an old story.

Generally the more serious a person gets about an activity the less likely they are to have one item that does many things within that activity. As an example a recreational cyclist might have one bicycle and set of kit to do all types of cycling while a serious cyclist will have a different bike for every type of riding.

Same with cameras and all types of things. The more you read the more likely you are to use a dedicated reading device. Simple really.

07-26-2010, 02:36 PM	#4
fjtorres Grand Sorcerer Posts: 11,732 Karma: 128354696 Join Date: May 2009 Location: 26 kly from Sgr A* Device: T100TA,PW2,PRS-T1,KT,FireHD 8.9,K2, PB360,BeBook One,Axim51v,TC1000	Well, that estimate is down from the pre-iPad release estimates of 4.03 million. (At the time, they estimated iPad sales at 1.6 million.) http://ireaderreview.com/2010/01/24/...via-digitimes/ Still, 3.5 million is plenty good. And iPad cannibalization looks to be minimal (<14%) BTW, that article has otherwise been right on the money; they predicted 3G readers hitting $199 and WiFi readers hitting $149 back in January. Last edited by fjtorres; 07-26-2010 at 02:39 PM.

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07-26-2010, 01:02 PM	#2
kjk . Posts: 3,408 Karma: 5647231 Join Date: Oct 2008 Device: never enough	Interesting, so both Forrester and Susquehanna Financial Group believe around 3 million Kindles sold since 2007? I wonder where they are getting their estimates.

07-26-2010, 01:41 PM	#3
kovidgoyal creator of calibre Posts: 45,146 Karma: 27110894 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Mumbai, India Device: Various	Probably from each other

07-26-2010, 02:53 PM	#6
nekokami fruminous edugeek Posts: 6,745 Karma: 551260 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Northeast US Device: iPad, eBw 1150	The other day I was showing my iPad to a clerk in a store (I was buying a bag that would hold it) and he said, "I tried to talk my wife into one of those, but she likes her Kindle." I agreed that they have different purposes and strengths. (I got mine to read and annotate PDF journal articles.)

07-27-2010, 03:31 PM	#9
Dulin's Books Wizard Posts: 2,806 Karma: 13500000 Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Portland, OR Device: Boox PB360 etc etc etc	all of which are fairly "simple" to get even thought they arent public. various companies specialize in tracking industry info that isnt necessarily "public". For instance PVI sales figures for eink panels available and it doesn't take much more digging from there to find who they went to.

07-27-2010, 05:06 PM	#11
sianon Addict Posts: 352 Karma: 572 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Melbourne Device: Sony 500, Bebook, Kindle, Eco reader Drs and soon the Archos 9	I have had several discussions with the woman who serves in my favoured petrol (gas) station about both the kindle and the Ipad (have showed her both). The other day when I was in there, I asked if she had her kindle yet (the device she had been leaning towards) and she informed me that she had just bought the Ipad instead.

07-27-2010, 05:46 PM	#12
MartinParish Author of 2184 Posts: 61 Karma: 810 Join Date: Apr 2010 Device: Kindle	I like the Kindle and I think the iPad is overrated...but really, it's just a matter of time until someone else comes up with something that will supersede both.

07-28-2010, 12:24 AM	#14
afa The Forgotten Posts: 1,136 Karma: 4689999 Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Dubai Device: Kindle Paperwhite; Nook HD; Sony Xperia Z3 Compact	Amazon.com currently states the Kindle to be "Temporarily Out of Stock". I don't really recall that happening before. Personally, I suspect that they might have halted production of the current gen Kindle because the new one (Kindle "3", though they won't call it that) must be coming soon. What do you guys think?

07-28-2010, 02:18 AM	#15
HappyMartin Martin Kristiansen Posts: 1,546 Karma: 8480958 Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Johannesburg Device: Kindle International Ipad 2	Some people like one thing to do lots of things and some people don't, its an old story. Generally the more serious a person gets about an activity the less likely they are to have one item that does many things within that activity. As an example a recreational cyclist might have one bicycle and set of kit to do all types of cycling while a serious cyclist will have a different bike for every type of riding. Same with cameras and all types of things. The more you read the more likely you are to use a dedicated reading device. Simple really.