Global warming or not? - Page 38

nekokami · 07-10-2010, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SameOldStory

Fallen Angels by Jerry Pournelle, Larry Niven and Michael Flynn

Free at webscription.net
I had completely forgotten about this book. I read it a long time ago so it may will be dated.

Synopsis
"That government, dedicated to saving the environment from the evils of technology, had been voted into power because everybody knew that the Green House Effect had to be controlled, whatever the cost. But who would have thought that the cost of ending pollution would include not only total government control of day-to-day life, but the onset of a new Ice Age "

As much as I love science fiction in general and Larry Niven in particular, this is not scientific research. I've read the book, and it was entertaining, but not especially convincing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SameOldStory

- Legalizing "compulsory abortions," ie forced abortions carried out against the will of the pregnant women, as is common place in Communist China where women who have already had one child and refuse to abort the second are kidnapped off the street by the authorities before a procedure is carried out to forcibly abort the baby.

I have to take issue with this. I have two daughters adopted from China, one of whom I know to have been a second child, clearly not forcibly aborted. I'm not saying this has never happened in China (or elsewhere), but it is not the universal or widespread practice that some seem to feel confident in referring to. This kind of comment does nothing to support the credibility of this reviewer.

I heard a really good interview on Science Friday on the subject of climate science a while back. You can read a transcript here:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...54&ft=1&f=1007

Nice quote:

Quote:

Prof. JENKINS-SMITH: Well, there are a number of different filters that we have in place when we take in information of a complex nature... most people have relatively coherent sets of beliefs about how the world operates and should operate. These are combinations of values that we hold about what matters, and how we should live our lives, and how we should be related to other people. And these types of values guide what we expect from the world around us. So if you are an individualist and you don't like lots of constraints imposed upon you from the outside, particularly governmental constraints, you're going to be skeptical of claims that would justify extensive governmental intervention in your life.... If on the other hand you believe that there is a substantial role for government and that the government is there to mediate big problems that are generated by human action, you're more sympathetic to those kinds of claims.

I am not "pro-government," nor am I an anarchist or conspiracy theorist. I have reviewed the data as well as the structural arguments supporting or denying the problem of human-created climate change, and I find the threat credible. I understand that there are other people in this forum who do not find the threat credible, or think that specific proposed measures to reduce the threat are unacceptable. I am not doubting anyone else's intelligence or good intentions, and I would appreciate the same courtesy in return.

SameOldStory · 07-10-2010, 05:20 PM

"Fallen Angels by Jerry Pournelle, Larry Niven and Michael Flynn"

"As much as I love science fiction in general and Larry Niven in particular, this is not scientific research. I've read the book, and it was entertaining, but not especially convincing."

Sorry nekokami. I didn't think that anyone would believe that I had intended to offer this up as "scientific research." Or even a likely scenario for that matter.

The Synopsis? It's copied directly from the link - Fallen Angels. Second paragraph down.

Regarding my post (excerpt taken from Amazon.com) about Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment, co-written by John Holdren.
"- Legalizing "compulsory abortions," ie forced abortions carried out against the will of the pregnant women, as is common place in Communist China where women who have already had one child and refuse to abort the second are kidnapped off the street by the authorities before a procedure is carried out to forcibly abort the baby. "

That excerpt was not written by me. That's the first review on Amazon's page for that book. I thought that the link would make the source self evident.

"I have to take issue with this. I have two daughters adopted from China, one of whom I know to have been a second child, clearly not forcibly aborted. I'm not saying this has never happened in China (or elsewhere), but it is not the universal or widespread practice that some seem to feel confident in referring to. This kind of comment does nothing to support the credibility of this reviewer."

The writer does say that it is common place. I do not know that to be true, and I should have read it more carefully. My apologies.

John Holdren does however believe that legalizing "compulsory abortions" may be necessary, world wide, in the future.

Forced abortions do happen though, even if it's not common place.

Woman Forced to Abort Fetus at Seven Months
"A 25-year-old unmarried woman was seven months pregnant when staff members from the local government family planning office forcibly took her to a clinic to give her an abortion."

Even this from NPR -
Cases of Forced Abortions Surface in China
"During the past week, dozens of women in southwest China have been forced to have abortions even as late as nine months into the pregnancy, according to evidence uncovered by NPR."

China Trying to Force 6-Months’ Pregnant Woman to Abort
"Those who violate the rule must pay large fines, although reports of zealous officials ordering forced abortions in rural and semi-rural areas are fairly common." (Not my wording, just to make it clear.)

Increasing abuses generated by China’s coercive birth-control policies
“It is a violation of human rights when women are denied the right to plan their own families, and that includes being forced to have an abortion or sterilised against their will.” (UN Conference on Women-Beijing 1995)"

It appears to happen mainly (but not exclusively) in small towns, villages, and the country side. That it does happen is evident. How common neither you not I can say, as China (the government) will be reluctant to report that information.

The good news is that there is an effort to stop the very real, and very large abortion of female fetuses and children. (This is not a mistake)

OLD NEWS (from 2004
Risk of abortion for 40-60 million female children over ten year period
"The United Nations has reported that in China there is the risk that 40-60 million female children will be either aborted or killed in China over the next 10 years"

Working Group on the Girl Child
NGO Committee on the Status of Women – Geneva
"In fact, due to the high occurrence of foeticides, infanticides, including newborn neglect and abandonment, the world is currently deprived of over 100 million women. China and India alone are responsible for 80 million missing females."

NEWER NEWS
Male-female birth ratio improves in China

"I am not doubting anyone else's intelligence or good intentions, and I would appreciate the same courtesy in return."

"This kind of comment does nothing to support the credibility of this reviewer."

???

OooKaaay, I guess.

WT Sharpe · 07-10-2010, 05:44 PM

Here are a couple of new articles from New Scientist:

Soaring Arctic temperatures – a warning from history
http://www.newscientist.com/article/...m-history.html

Climate change could drive crocs out of the water
http://www.newscientist.com/article/...the-water.html

And here's a new one from Science Daily:

Heat Waves Could Be Commonplace in the US by 2039
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0708122617.htm

kennyc · 07-10-2010, 05:57 PM

Hmmm, looks like I need to either move your direction Tom or Yvans!

nekokami · 07-10-2010, 06:13 PM

SameOldStory, to be clear, I wasn't attributing the point of view of Fallen Angels or the reviewer of Holdren's book to you. I was simply saying that 1 - while the scenario in Fallen Angels makes for an entertaining story, it probably doesn't have much bearing on whether or not current climate change concerns are well-founded, so I wasn't sure why it was being brought up in this thread, and 2 - the quotes you posted from the Amazon reviewer seemed highly charged and of questionable accuracy based on information I've reviewed in formal studies as well as my personal experience with children from China and with people I have met while in China. Perhaps a quote from Holdren's book would be more helpful to this discussion? Or some information about Holdren's scientific qualifications?

The remark about respecting multiple points of view wasn't directed at you at all-- just a "play nice" reminder to several participants who seemed to be getting a little worked up about the topic.

SameOldStory · 07-10-2010, 06:22 PM

"Heat Waves Could Be Commonplace in the US by 2039"

Most dire predictions talk about dramatic rises of a few tenths of a degree. But if all of this is going happen REALY fast we'll need to do some severe cutting back.

But there are solutions after all.

First we have to drastically, and suddenly, reduce the world population. I even know the name of the person to put in charge of it.

Next we have to seed the sky with sulphur to reduce global warming.

And last - reduce our standard of living.

SameOldStory · 07-10-2010, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nekokami

SameOldStory, to be clear, I wasn't attributing the point of view of Fallen Angels or the reviewer of Holdren's book to you. I was simply saying that 1 - while the scenario in Fallen Angels makes for an entertaining story, it probably doesn't have much bearing on whether or not current climate change concerns are well-founded, so I wasn't sure why it was being brought up in this thread, and 2 - the quotes you posted from the Amazon reviewer seemed highly charged and of questionable accuracy based on information I've reviewed in formal studies as well as my personal experience with children from China and with people I have met while in China. Perhaps a quote from Holdren's book would be more helpful to this discussion? Or some information about Holdren's scientific qualifications?

"I was simply saying that 1 - while the scenario in Fallen Angels makes for an entertaining story, it probably doesn't have much bearing on whether or not current climate change concerns are well-founded, so I wasn't sure why it was being brought up in this thread,"

The remark about respecting multiple points of view wasn't directed at you at all-- just a "play nice" reminder to several participants who seemed to be getting a little worked up about the topic.

"I was simply saying that 1 - while the scenario in Fallen Angels makes for an entertaining story, it probably doesn't have much bearing on whether or not current climate change concerns are well-founded, so I wasn't sure why it was being brought up in this thread,"

(Side note - I'm not sure about happy_terd's post #551. It starts off with One cold winters day in the year 2079. And THEN it doesn’t say a thing about the problem!)

Fallen Angels is only germane to the conversation in that the book was brought to mind by the topic - global warming. I didn't know that I shouldn't mention fiction that is tangentially related to the topic.

" the quotes you posted from the Amazon reviewer seemed highly charged "

He did seem upset. But John Holdren's views are unambiguous and a little out of the mainstream.

"seemed highly charged and of questionable accuracy based on information I've reviewed in formal studies as well as my personal experience with children from China and with people I have met while in China."

So the news stories and references from posting #557 are inaccurate fabrications? Personally, I would much rather think that they were fake stories.

"Perhaps a quote from Holdren's book would be more helpful to this discussion?"

There I have to admit defeat. There are many who quote sections from the book that he co-wrote. The detractors quote passages that really do sound horrible. The supporters of John Holdren, the man, say that you can't attribute any one particular statement to him alone (there were 2 other co-writers after all).

They also say that the book was written back in 1977. This is a specious argument though. There are many "old" books that are repellant, no matter how long ago they were written. How about that great book "THE JEWISH QUESTION" by Arno Schickedanz? Any takers? Will it ever be "ok" because it was written a long time ago?

There is a third group. Those that agree with the statements in the book Ecoscience.

"Or some information about Holdren's scientific qualifications?"

Holdren is a physicist. But like many bright people he has mushroomed. Wiki has a favorable review, although it did include a quote from a 1969 article -
"if the population control measures are not initiated immediately, and effectively, all the technology man can bring to bear will not fend off the misery to come."

We each have our own criteria by which we judge the information that's out there. The best I can say is to google "John Holdren". Decide what you choose to believe. To do a study of the man is far more than any of us would want to do. And in the end few would be swayed.

My impression is that he is of "the ends justify the means" crowd.

nekokami · 07-10-2010, 10:41 PM

SameOldStory, I think I'm just confused about why you mentioned these two books. Because you agree with them? Because you disagree? Because you aren't sure and you want to know what other people think? I'm not trying to say you can't post your point of view or mention related fiction, I'm just having trouble understanding your point.

As for forced abortions, etc. in China, yes, there are reliable reports that it has happened. The reviewer you quoted makes it sound like a universal practice, however, and I don't see evidence for that. So I can't tell, on the basis of this excerpt of a review by an Amazon customer who may or may not have actually read the book, what the position of the book is. The viewer is making wild accusations that conflict with information I have. What should I think of the reviewer's other accusations about the author(s)?

Now, if the author(s) (Holdren or Holdren plus two co-authors or whatever) are advocating reducing the population by active culling (based on any criteria) or forced sterilization or abortion, I disagree with that premise. But I would like to see sensible people start to limit population voluntarily, because resources are getting pretty stretched. It's hard for me to see why anyone would think that continuing on as we have, with the rates of population growth and consumption of resources, is a good idea. I know too much of the math behind the "tragedy of the commons" problem.

SameOldStory · 07-10-2010, 11:54 PM

The "problem" is overblown. The book Fallen Angels simply popped into my head because of the subject. I don't remember it as being that good really. It was just something I read a long time ago.

"I didn't know that I shouldn't mention fiction that is tangentially related to the topic." I was just being facetious. This is a book oriented site after all.

The other book, Ecoscience, I disagree with. It does advocate reducing the population not by murder, but forcibly none the less. One thing interesting is that the quotes from the book are not contested by anyone, other than to say that it was just a textbook or some other sophistry.

"But I would like to see sensible people start to limit population voluntarily,"

My wife and I agree with you. Not wanting to bring more children into this world we have no natural children.

No one will agree on how to control world population. In the end it probably will be as Holdren envisioned in Ecoscience, with forced sterilization and abortion.

Those who are old, weak, handicapped, or mentally ill will have to be dealt with. They will consume too many resources.

If you can find it, see the movie "SELLING MURDER: THE KILLING FILMS OF THE THIRD REICH".

Synopsis -
"Examines the propaganda films made by the Nazis to justify the euthanasia policy of the 1930s and 1940s whereby over 200,000 people were killed on the grounds that they were mentally or physically disabled. The two most explicit of these films, which directly advocated the killing of disabled people, were destroyed by the Nazis as the war ended."

I've seen it.

Back on topic, next post.

TGS · 07-11-2010, 03:26 AM

One should not, of course, judge an argument by the company it keeps. Having said that this might give succour to the deniers.

nekokami · 07-11-2010, 11:18 AM

I doubt most countries will ever get to the "culling" stage (elderly, handicapped, etc.)-- at least actively. More likely support for those who need it will be dropped due to various crises and everyone will lament the rising death rates.

My money is on a plague. As the population density goes higher, it gets easier and easier for disease to spread. Water shortages and quality, along with nutrition problems, will only make this worse.

I'm not saying I think this is a good idea, only that I think it's likely, unless we take voluntary steps to reduce the population.

It is worth noting, in this context, that the "developed" nations have lower population increase rates than the less developed. Correlation does not equal causation, and simply raising the standard of living in poorer communities or countries might not be enough (or even possible), but it seems to me that this possibility ought to be considered.

SameOldStory · 07-11-2010, 11:30 AM

"The Prince of Wales, who warned last year that there were "less than 100 months" to save the planet from irreversible damage due to climate change, is stepping up his own efforts."

""This is the most important cause that His Royal Highness has ever taken on," says one of Prince Charles's friends."

No wonder Queen Elizabeth will not abdicate.

"less than 100 months" , that only leaves time for lobbing sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere -
Scientist Publishes 'Escape Route' from Global Warming

Better get Dow Chemical and Dupont on the phone.

SameOldStory · 07-11-2010, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nekokami

My money is on a plague. As the population density goes higher, it gets easier and easier for disease to spread. Water shortages and quality, along with nutrition problems, will only make this worse.

I'm not saying I think this is a good idea, only that I think it's likely, unless we take voluntary steps to reduce the population.

It is worth noting, in this context, that the "developed" nations have lower population increase rates than the less developed. Correlation does not equal causation, and simply raising the standard of living in poorer communities or countries might not be enough (or even possible), but it seems to me that this possibility ought to be considered.

I do believe that overpopulation combined with dwindling resources is a far greater threat than global warming. And, contrary to the doom and gloom people, I don't think that global warming (if it is a long term event and not just part of the earths common cycles - see The looming threat of Global Cooling) will occur fast enough to be the cause of global catastrophe in any way.

Don J. Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus - Resume

Geologic evidence of the cause of global warming and cooling—are we heading for Global catastrophe?

"My money is on a plague."

A highly contagious fatal diseases does seem likely considering our (the worlds) mobility. It would have to be both long incubating and then quickly fatal. A combination AIDS and Ebola.

My money is on man. A posting on MR caused me to check out the internet for news on prejudice and racial hatred. Surprisingly there is quite a bit of it. More than I had expected. And many places seem to have none at all. At least according to their publications, that is. My guess is that a great deal of it doesn't make the headlines.

"It is worth noting, in this context, that the "developed" nations have lower population increase rates than the less developed. Correlation does not equal causation, and simply raising the standard of living in poorer communities or countries might not be enough (or even possible), but it seems to me that this possibility ought to be considered."

Much of the developing world has its' hope on becoming the next Japan, China, or India. But if there is a severe depression in two or more of the major developed countries you may see massive unemployment in the rest of the world. China can't sell enough in places like Argentina, Belize, or South Africa to keep its' population busy.

I also believe that in developing parts of the world large families are a safety net. To reduce population you must see to it that families have at most 1 child (if that many). If you may have only one child then you want a boy. Not just to carry on your family line, but to provide for you as you get too old to take care of yourself. And where do things go from there? Down hill.

I would like to think that a girl child would be more valuable and better cared for in that case. But I don't think that's the case in some parts of the developing world, and certainly not in troubled times. And should only one child be permitted, I don't think that the choice would be for a girl.

In times of major long term crisis, people will take the first leader that promises an appealing solution. Add overpopulation, unemployment, food shortages, and all of the hatreds (ethnic, regional, national, international, and religious) into consideration and you will have an explosion or two around the world. Some may lead to WWIII.

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse - War, Death, Pestilence, and Famine will by far more important, and immediate, than global warming.

TONGUE IN CHEEK
Perhaps what the world needs is a Gay pill or shot. Over a 50 to 100 year period there'll be enough accidents (boy and girl wake up with a massive hangover, look at each other and scream - girl now pregnant) to keep the world going.

carld · 07-11-2010, 07:03 PM

I have no doubt at all that the world is warming up and that it's our fault. Whether we have the time and political will to do anything about it is doubtful.

Joebill · 07-11-2010, 07:18 PM

With the amount of global politics involved, it is hard to find facts on the subject.

I did see a documentary some years ago, around 10 years ago.

None of the 20 climatologists in there agreed with each other. One said 100 percent yes, another said 100 percent no. The other 18 disagreed or agreed partially with those two. Most of them started off saying 'my esteemed bleeep colleague is wrong'. Some didn't have to be bleeped, but most did.

How then are the rest of us to come to a valid conclusion if 20 major climatologists cannot reach consensus ?

View Poll Results: Global warming or not, man-made or not?
It's all our fault! And we should do domething about it.	85	40.09%
It's all our fault, but it is too late to mend it.	10	4.72%
It is happening, but not our fault. (part of the planets natural cycle)	52	24.53%
Don't believe in Global warming, it's all a fabrication.	36	16.98%
The blue fish, in the sea (which isn't rising)	10	4.72%
Non of the above...	19	8.96%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
How is it possible to tell difference b/w Global and non Global?	steffi	Amazon Kindle	3	01-24-2010 11:07 AM
Newspapers in Kindle 2 Global?	guess32	Amazon Kindle	9	01-12-2010 05:08 AM
Home Warming Present	Taylor514ce	Lounge	5	12-05-2008 10:16 AM
E-Books increase Global Warming, researchers say (satire)	Colin Dunstan	News	4	11-16-2004 09:42 AM

07-10-2010, 05:20 PM	#557
SameOldStory My True Self Posts: 3,126 Karma: 66242098 Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Trantor, Galactic Center Device: Galaxy Tab 2 7.0	"Fallen Angels by Jerry Pournelle, Larry Niven and Michael Flynn" "As much as I love science fiction in general and Larry Niven in particular, this is not scientific research. I've read the book, and it was entertaining, but not especially convincing." Sorry nekokami. I didn't think that anyone would believe that I had intended to offer this up as "scientific research." Or even a likely scenario for that matter. The Synopsis? It's copied directly from the link - Fallen Angels. Second paragraph down. Regarding my post (excerpt taken from Amazon.com) about Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment, co-written by John Holdren. "- Legalizing "compulsory abortions," ie forced abortions carried out against the will of the pregnant women, as is common place in Communist China where women who have already had one child and refuse to abort the second are kidnapped off the street by the authorities before a procedure is carried out to forcibly abort the baby. " That excerpt was not written by me. That's the first review on Amazon's page for that book. I thought that the link would make the source self evident. "I have to take issue with this. I have two daughters adopted from China, one of whom I know to have been a second child, clearly not forcibly aborted. I'm not saying this has never happened in China (or elsewhere), but it is not the universal or widespread practice that some seem to feel confident in referring to. This kind of comment does nothing to support the credibility of this reviewer." The writer does say that it is common place. I do not know that to be true, and I should have read it more carefully. My apologies. John Holdren does however believe that legalizing "compulsory abortions" may be necessary, world wide, in the future. Forced abortions do happen though, even if it's not common place. Woman Forced to Abort Fetus at Seven Months "A 25-year-old unmarried woman was seven months pregnant when staff members from the local government family planning office forcibly took her to a clinic to give her an abortion." Even this from NPR - Cases of Forced Abortions Surface in China "During the past week, dozens of women in southwest China have been forced to have abortions even as late as nine months into the pregnancy, according to evidence uncovered by NPR." China Trying to Force 6-Months’ Pregnant Woman to Abort "Those who violate the rule must pay large fines, although reports of zealous officials ordering forced abortions in rural and semi-rural areas are fairly common." (Not my wording, just to make it clear.) Increasing abuses generated by China’s coercive birth-control policies “It is a violation of human rights when women are denied the right to plan their own families, and that includes being forced to have an abortion or sterilised against their will.” (UN Conference on Women-Beijing 1995)" It appears to happen mainly (but not exclusively) in small towns, villages, and the country side. That it does happen is evident. How common neither you not I can say, as China (the government) will be reluctant to report that information. The good news is that there is an effort to stop the very real, and very large abortion of female fetuses and children. (This is not a mistake) OLD NEWS (from 2004 Risk of abortion for 40-60 million female children over ten year period "The United Nations* has reported that in China there is the risk that 40-60 million female children will be either aborted or killed in China over the next 10 years"* Working Group on the Girl Child NGO Committee on the Status of Women – Geneva "In fact, due to the high occurrence of foeticides, infanticides, including newborn neglect and abandonment, the world is currently deprived of over 100 million women. China and India alone are responsible for 80 million missing females." NEWER NEWS Male-female birth ratio improves in China "I am not doubting anyone else's intelligence or good intentions, and I would appreciate the same courtesy in return." *"This kind of comment does nothing to support the credibility of this reviewer."* ??? OooKaaay, I guess.

07-10-2010, 05:44 PM	#558
WT Sharpe Bah, humbug! Posts: 39,072 Karma: 157049943 Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Chesapeake, VA, USA Device: Kindle Oasis, iPad Pro, & a Samsung Galaxy S9.	Here are a couple of new articles from New Scientist: Soaring Arctic temperatures – a warning from history http://www.newscientist.com/article/...m-history.html Climate change could drive crocs out of the water http://www.newscientist.com/article/...the-water.html And here's a new one from Science Daily: Heat Waves Could Be Commonplace in the US by 2039 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0708122617.htm

07-10-2010, 05:57 PM	#559
kennyc The Dank Side of the Moon Posts: 35,918 Karma: 119747553 Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Denver, CO Device: Kindle2; Kindle Fire	Hmmm, looks like I need to either move your direction Tom or Yvans!

07-10-2010, 06:13 PM	#560
nekokami fruminous edugeek Posts: 6,745 Karma: 551260 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Northeast US Device: iPad, eBw 1150	SameOldStory, to be clear, I wasn't attributing the point of view of Fallen Angels or the reviewer of Holdren's book to you. I was simply saying that 1 - while the scenario in Fallen Angels makes for an entertaining story, it probably doesn't have much bearing on whether or not current climate change concerns are well-founded, so I wasn't sure why it was being brought up in this thread, and 2 - the quotes you posted from the Amazon reviewer seemed highly charged and of questionable accuracy based on information I've reviewed in formal studies as well as my personal experience with children from China and with people I have met while in China. Perhaps a quote from Holdren's book would be more helpful to this discussion? Or some information about Holdren's scientific qualifications? The remark about respecting multiple points of view wasn't directed at you at all-- just a "play nice" reminder to several participants who seemed to be getting a little worked up about the topic.

07-10-2010, 06:22 PM	#561
SameOldStory My True Self Posts: 3,126 Karma: 66242098 Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Trantor, Galactic Center Device: Galaxy Tab 2 7.0	"Heat Waves Could Be Commonplace in the US by 2039" Most dire predictions talk about dramatic rises of a few tenths of a degree. But if all of this is going happen REALY fast we'll need to do some severe cutting back. But there are solutions after all. First we have to drastically, and suddenly, reduce the world population. I even know the name of the person to put in charge of it. Next we have to seed the sky with sulphur to reduce global warming. And last - reduce our standard of living.

07-10-2010, 10:41 PM	#563
nekokami fruminous edugeek Posts: 6,745 Karma: 551260 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Northeast US Device: iPad, eBw 1150	SameOldStory, I think I'm just confused about why you mentioned these two books. Because you agree with them? Because you disagree? Because you aren't sure and you want to know what other people think? I'm not trying to say you can't post your point of view or mention related fiction, I'm just having trouble understanding your point. As for forced abortions, etc. in China, yes, there are reliable reports that it has happened. The reviewer you quoted makes it sound like a universal practice, however, and I don't see evidence for that. So I can't tell, on the basis of this excerpt of a review by an Amazon customer who may or may not have actually read the book, what the position of the book is. The viewer is making wild accusations that conflict with information I have. What should I think of the reviewer's other accusations about the author(s)? Now, if the author(s) (Holdren or Holdren plus two co-authors or whatever) are advocating reducing the population by active culling (based on any criteria) or forced sterilization or abortion, I disagree with that premise. But I would like to see sensible people start to limit population voluntarily, because resources are getting pretty stretched. It's hard for me to see why anyone would think that continuing on as we have, with the rates of population growth and consumption of resources, is a good idea. I know too much of the math behind the "tragedy of the commons" problem.

07-10-2010, 11:54 PM	#564
SameOldStory My True Self Posts: 3,126 Karma: 66242098 Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Trantor, Galactic Center Device: Galaxy Tab 2 7.0	The "problem" is overblown. The book Fallen Angels simply popped into my head because of the subject. I don't remember it as being that good really. It was just something I read a long time ago. "I didn't know that I shouldn't mention fiction that is tangentially related to the topic." I was just being facetious. This is a book oriented site after all. The other book, Ecoscience, I disagree with. It does advocate reducing the population not by murder, but forcibly none the less. One thing interesting is that the quotes from the book are not contested by anyone, other than to say that it was just a textbook or some other sophistry. "But I would like to see sensible people start to limit population voluntarily," My wife and I agree with you. Not wanting to bring more children into this world we have no natural children. No one will agree on how to control world population. In the end it probably will be as Holdren envisioned in Ecoscience, with forced sterilization and abortion. Those who are old, weak, handicapped, or mentally ill will have to be dealt with. They will consume too many resources. If you can find it, see the movie "SELLING MURDER: THE KILLING FILMS OF THE THIRD REICH". Synopsis - "Examines the propaganda films made by the Nazis to justify the euthanasia policy of the 1930s and 1940s whereby over 200,000 people were killed on the grounds that they were mentally or physically disabled. The two most explicit of these films, which directly advocated the killing of disabled people, were destroyed by the Nazis as the war ended." I've seen it. Back on topic, next post.

07-11-2010, 03:26 AM	#565
TGS Country Member Posts: 9,058 Karma: 7676767 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Denmark Device: Liseuse: Irex DR800. PRS 505 in the house, and the missus has an iPad.	One should not, of course, judge an argument by the company it keeps. Having said that this might give succour to the deniers.

07-11-2010, 11:18 AM	#566
nekokami fruminous edugeek Posts: 6,745 Karma: 551260 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Northeast US Device: iPad, eBw 1150	I doubt most countries will ever get to the "culling" stage (elderly, handicapped, etc.)-- at least actively. More likely support for those who need it will be dropped due to various crises and everyone will lament the rising death rates. My money is on a plague. As the population density goes higher, it gets easier and easier for disease to spread. Water shortages and quality, along with nutrition problems, will only make this worse. I'm not saying I think this is a good idea, only that I think it's likely, unless we take voluntary steps to reduce the population. It is worth noting, in this context, that the "developed" nations have lower population increase rates than the less developed. Correlation does not equal causation, and simply raising the standard of living in poorer communities or countries might not be enough (or even possible), but it seems to me that this possibility ought to be considered.

07-11-2010, 11:30 AM	#567
SameOldStory My True Self Posts: 3,126 Karma: 66242098 Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Trantor, Galactic Center Device: Galaxy Tab 2 7.0	"The Prince of Wales, who warned last year that there were "less than 100 months" to save the planet from irreversible damage due to climate change, is stepping up his own efforts." ""This is the most important cause that His Royal Highness has ever taken on," says one of Prince Charles's friends." No wonder Queen Elizabeth will not abdicate. "less than 100 months" , that only leaves time for lobbing sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere - Scientist Publishes 'Escape Route' from Global Warming Better get Dow Chemical and Dupont on the phone.

07-11-2010, 07:03 PM	#569
carld Wizard Posts: 2,698 Karma: 4748723 Join Date: Dec 2007 Device: Kindle Paperwhite	I have no doubt at all that the world is warming up and that it's our fault. Whether we have the time and political will to do anything about it is doubtful.

07-11-2010, 07:18 PM	#570
Joebill Fanatic Posts: 517 Karma: 459442 Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Alpha Centauri's Library of Alexandria Device: Pandigital Novel	With the amount of global politics involved, it is hard to find facts on the subject. I did see a documentary some years ago, around 10 years ago. None of the 20 climatologists in there agreed with each other. One said 100 percent yes, another said 100 percent no. The other 18 disagreed or agreed partially with those two. Most of them started off saying 'my esteemed bleeep colleague is wrong'. Some didn't have to be bleeped, but most did. How then are the rest of us to come to a valid conclusion if 20 major climatologists cannot reach consensus ?