WSJ: E-Book Sales Fall After New Amazon Contracts

[dickloraine]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Well, if it's the truth then of course it would be the explanation given when sales go down.

The book industry isn't that different from the music industry, the movie industry, the game industry or even the restaurant industry. The big hit is what drives the entertainment industry and what generates the big profits.

As far as midlist, I gave an example of real numbers by a real midlist author. His overall sales number were up. His ebook numbers were down, even though the later book sold for less than the earlier book. That argues that the narrative being pushed, that sales are purely based on price, isn't valid.

It would be an explanation, if it wasn't the explanation last year too. If each year there are no big bestsellers, and sales go down regardless, that can't be the explanation, don't you think?

What is the price for the audio-book? I guess it is not far from the eBook price.
And just by the way, anecdotal evidence is not real evidence. I could cherry pick any "example" I want to support any thesis.

[murg]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

Wow! I was unaware that the independently vetted, intimate details of the contract fights were finally made public. Where can I read them?

Do your own research.

The reluctance to provide any evidence of claims makes it harder to be discounted completely.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by dickloraine

It would be an explanation, if it wasn't the explanation last year too. If each year there are no big bestsellers, and sales go down regardless, that can't be the explanation, don't you think?

What is the price for the audio-book? I guess it is not far from the eBook price.
And just by the way, anecdotal evidence is not real evidence. I could cherry pick any "example" I want to support any thesis.

Well, Scalzi's data is the only real data that you are likely to see. You can call it anecdotal evidence if you like, but he has the real data, not some estimate and unlike Amazon, the book publishers and most authors, he's willing to share it. If you have real data, rather than some estimates from a newspaper article, please share it, I would love to hear it.

Audio books are typically much more expensive that the ebook. Here are a couple of books that just came out

Sword of the South by David Weber -
audiobook list - $35, member $24.46,
hardcover list - $27, prime - $17 ebook $10

Veiled by Benedict Jacka

paper - $8.00
ebook - $8.00
audiobook - $21

According to my email receipt I paid $20 for the audio version of Lock In. The ebook version was $11.


You can get the some audiobooks at a huge discount by buying the whispersync ebook first, but I rather doubt this is what happened with Lock In.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

Wow! I was unaware that the independently vetted, intimate details of the contract fights were finally made public. Where can I read them (he asked expecting the standard "do your own research; my reluctance to provide any evidence of my claims makes it harder for me to be discounted completely" answer)?

Yes, yes, yes. Classic rhetorical trick. When the facts don't agree, resort to derision and sarcasm. Why in the world would I waste my valuable time posting links when you simply ignore the links that I do post. While I'm sure that it's slipped your memory, the negotiating points for both sides were widely reported in the news. I even seem to recall you posting on the long thread about those negotiations and the publicity battles at the time. I'm sure that if I mention that the US entered into WW II following the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, you will insist that I post links.

[DiapDealer]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

While I'm sure that it's slipped your memory, the negotiating points for both sides were widely reported in the news. I even seem to recall you posting on the long thread about those negotiations and the publicity battles at the time.

No no, no. Classic ... well ... B.S., really. Nothing has slipped my mind. I remember perfectly well one side's "insiders" (I'll let you try to recall which of the parties) whining to the press about what they claimed were the sticking points. But I also remember one side not discussing negotiating points with the press at all. Hell, I even remember posting my own opinions on what those points of contention might be. But what I remember most vividly, is you pretending you were the only one capable of seeing through to the truth (while everyone else was bumbling in the dark), just as you're doing now (and failing miserably at it, just so you know).

[shalym]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Yes, yes, yes. Classic rhetorical trick. When the facts don't agree, resort to derision and sarcasm. Why in the world would I waste my valuable time posting links when you simply ignore the links that I do post. While I'm sure that it's slipped your memory, the negotiating points for both sides were widely reported in the news. I even seem to recall you posting on the long thread about those negotiations and the publicity battles at the time. I'm sure that if I mention that the US entered into WW II following the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, you will insist that I post links.

So you have no documentation to back up your statement?

Ok.

Shari

[JSWolf]

Impulse purchases do count for a lot of sales. Once the price gets too high for impulse purchases, impulse purchases drop significantly. By pricing eBooks to silly pricing, you lose most impulse purchases. These people who might have bout the eBook have since moved on and don't usually come back to buy as they've found something else to purchase instead. So who loses? The publisher with the agency prices and the author who is stuck with a rather stupid publisher.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by eschwartz

Sorry, I should've said they haven't been.
But I think my analysis will continue to be valid at least as long as the tradpubs retain copyright ownership of the backlist.


Well, they might die slowly of a thousand paper cuts on the oddball bestseller...

The backlist will ensure something with the name survives.
Just as there still is *something* named MGM.
But it sure bears little resemblance to the MGM of the past.

Tradpub will survive but the longer term trends are all back to the future; small specialty houses. The way it was before the multinationals took over.

That there have been no monster hits in the past two years is a clear sign that money is being spread around across a lot more titles, with nothing dominating the landscape enough to build the buzz needed to create the bandwagon effect. That is not a bad thing for readers.

[haydnfan]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Redshirts sales (June 5th, 2012 to Jan. 14th, 2013 the period that Redshirt was in hard back)
Hardcover - 26,604
eBook - 35,667
audio book - 17,008

Lock in sales (Hardback period, i.e. an apple to apple comparison, August 10, 2015)
Hardcover - 22,500
eBook - 24,000
Audiobook - 41,000

This comparison does not work. Lock In has much broader appeal than many of Scalzi's previous novels. There are many people that read it having never read Scalzi before. Redshirts is targeting the demographic of hard core Trekkers that appreciate the send up of the red shirt trope enough to read a whole novel on it.

And yes it is anecdotal evidence, you need a large selection of books across every genre and not two dissimilar books by the same author.

[Phogg]

Originally Posted by ottdmk

I think the current contracts are about two things: perception of worth and Amazon's market share.

The BPHs are desperately trying to avoid the iTunes scenario. Jobs successfully took control of pricing away from the music industry. Thanks to him, a song is worth $0.99. Forever. It's branded into the public consciousness. Although if you're willing to forego owning the song, you can go even cheaper.

The BPHs *really* want to avoid giving Bezos control of what a book is worth. They've only been partially successful. That's the danger in dealing with a retailer that cares more about market share then profit. I'm pretty sure the BPHs fear an Amazon monopsony, and I don't think they're wrong to.

And speaking of Amazon market share, combating that is another reason. Agency has its faults, but it does allow for a range of retailers, even if those retailers can't cut profit margins to the bone like Amazon does. (Kobo, for example, is reliant on Agency to the point that they've lobbied to keep it.)

I honestly don't mind Agency, as long as the publishers aren't idiots. (Sadly, not always the case.) If I can get my e-book for a little less than the mass-market paperbound, I'm okay.

Well, that was an entirely goofy "Bezos is teh Satan" type screed.

Because Amazon is headed in the exact same direction Feedbooks and Fictionwise were going before the big publishing houses maimed them during their little adventure that was squashed by the Federal Government. This isn't some personality driven conflict. This is an inevitable evolution of business models driven by an advance in technology. It doesn't matter what people are officers or owners of this corporation or that franchise chain.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by haydnfan

This comparison does not work. Lock In has much broader appeal than many of Scalzi's previous novels. There are many people that read it having never read Scalzi before. Redshirts is targeting the demographic of hard core Trekkers that appreciate the send up of the red shirt trope enough to read a whole novel on it.

And yes it is anecdotal evidence, you need a large selection of books across every genre and not two dissimilar books by the same author.

If that is the standard of data, you are never going to get it. You can continue to argue from guessed at numbers and suppositions, but then it's a discussion based on person opinion rather than facts. In that case, it become whichever side can shout the other side down or which side gets bored with the discussion first. Plus, multiple authors say that the estimate numbers published in the websites and newspaper articles are way, way off.

Scalzi may be unique in the break out of his sales, but I rather doubt it. What he says agrees with what I've read from other authors who talk in broad terms about revenue streams from audio books, ebooks and paper books. Larry Corriea talks a bit about his various revenue streams and how he gets paid. It's an interesting look into how a real world author makes his money. You might want to read it through all the way because at the very end, he updates to say that in 2014 he made 36% more in 2014 than in 2013. I was pretty surprised to read that he gets significant moneys from the WebSubscription and eARC at Baen.com. That's a very interesting data point. Of course, none of that makes the estimate sites or the Amazon sales figures. Thinking about it, it makes sense that Baen authors see a lot of ebook sales from the WebSubscription rather than Amazon. I buy almost all my ebook purchases for Baen authors (Weber, Corriea, Drake and others) from the WebSubscriptions. Not because it's cheaper, but because I get the books faster that way. Heck, I bought a number of eARC books from Baen for that very reason.

http://monsterhunternation.com/2014/...hors-get-paid/


Scalzi's most famous book was Old Man's War some ten years ago. He was already a well respected author when Redshirts and Lock In came out. I think that saying Redshirts was targeted at just the hard core Trekkies is unlikely, especially given the sales numbers. The vast majority of authors would kill for numbers like that.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by Phogg

Well, that was an entirely goofy "Bezos is teh Satan" type screed.

Because Amazon is headed in the exact same direction Feedbooks and Fictionwise were going before the big publishing houses maimed them during their little adventure that was squashed by the Federal Government. This isn't some personality driven conflict. This is an inevitable evolution of business models driven by an advance in technology. It doesn't matter what people are officers or owners of this corporation or that franchise chain.

Actually, it's a fairly accurate portrayal of the publishers view of ebooks. They want competition in the ebook arena and don't want to be dependent on Amazon. No businessman wants to be in a situation where they are totally dependent on one retailer. You can view it as an attack on Bezos even though he is no where mentioned, but it's the reality of the situation. Amazon has a business model that they borrowed from Walmart, low margins and squeeze the supplier. Bezos is quite open about it and talks about studying the Walmart model. That is not an evil thing. It's a valid business model. Kind of hard on the suppliers though, thus the publishers desire not to be trapped by it.

[Phogg]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Actually, it's a fairly accurate portrayal of the publishers view of ebooks. They want competition in the ebook arena and don't want to be dependent on Amazon. No businessman wants to be in a situation where they are totally dependent on one retailer. You can view it as an attack on Bezos even though he is no where mentioned, but it's the reality of the situation. Amazon has a business model that they borrowed from Walmart, low margins and squeeze the supplier. Bezos is quite open about it and talks about studying the Walmart model. That is not an evil thing. It's a valid business model. Kind of hard on the suppliers though, thus the publishers desire not to be trapped by it.

Bezos is mentioned in the post to which I was responding. I wasn't responding to the original post.
That is why I quoted it.

The big publishing houses are insuring competition among ebook distributors in the same way frustrated tenement residents get their plumbing problems fixed by pounding on the pipes with an axe. As I pointed out in the post you only quoted part of, the attempted price fixing with Apple damaged both Fictionwise and Feedbooks. Both of those were stores I frequented.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by Phogg

Bezos is mentioned in the post to which I was responding. I wasn't responding to the original post.
That is why I quoted it.

The big publishing houses are insuring competition among ebook distributors in the same way frustrated tenement residents get their plumbing problems fixed by pounding on the pipes with an axe. As I pointed out in the post you only quoted part of, the attempted price fixing with Apple damaged both Fictionwise and Feedbooks. Both of those were stores I frequented.

Once again, Apple was not accused of fixing prices. Agency pricing does not equal price fixing. I rather doubt that Fictionwise or Feedbooks was damaged by Agency pricing. They would have been more damaged by allowing Amazon to continue to sell ebooks at below cost. Amazon has a much, much deeper pocket than either Fictionwise or Feedbooks and thus could afford to sell below cost for as long as they needed to in order to keep market share. Fictionwise was bought by B&N in 2009. Apple didn't beome involved in ebook until _after_ B&N bought fictionwise.

[eschwartz]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Once again, Apple was not accused of fixing prices. Agency pricing does not equal price fixing.

You keep saying this. We keep telling you that according to the court case (!!!) they did one using a tactic that utilized doing the other (== both) ...