Silliness Quiz - Page 524

orlok · 05-29-2012, 04:47 PM

Suppose you have a close friend who has a lump in her breast and must have a mammogram. Of 100 women like her, 10 of them actually have a malignant tumor and 90 of them do not. Of the 10 women who actually have a tumor, the mammogram indicates correctly that 9 of them have a tumor and indicates incorrectly that 1 of them does not have a tumor. Of the 90 women who do not have a tumor, the mammogram indicates correctly that 81 of them do not have a tumor and indicates incorrectly that 9 of them do have a tumor. The table below summarizes all of this information. Imagine that your friend tests positive (as if she had a tumor), what is the likelihood that she actually has a tumor?

90% ?

Bonus Questions

Q) Does the Earth go around the Sun, or does the Sun go around the Earth?

Earth goes around the Sun (duh)

Q) How long does it take for the Earth to go around the Sun? (one day, one month, one year)

One year

Q) A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?

5 cents

Q) In a lake, there is a patch of lilypads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake?[/QUOTE]

47 days

Billi · 05-29-2012, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daithi

Imagine that your friend tests positive (as if she had a tumor), what is the likelihood that she actually has a tumor?

Seems like no one is able to beat Orlok here as I think he took all the bonus questions.

I always have some problems with probability questions and wonder in this special case if the likelihood is a little bit above 50 percent (or why it is not)?

orlok · 05-29-2012, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Billi

Seems like no one is able to beat Orlok here as I think he took all the bonus questions.

I always have some problems with probability questions and wonder in this special case if the likelihood is a little bit above 50 percent (or why it is not)?

Sorry about that...

I'm hopeless with probability questions too, but I figured in both tests the machine was inaccurate 10% of the time, so...

Billi · 05-29-2012, 05:13 PM

No need to say sorry.

That sounds logical. My reasoning was that the test gives back 18 positive tumor results and we have 10 actual tumor diseases, so it's a ratio of 10:9.

orlok · 05-29-2012, 05:20 PM

For all I know you could be right. I've never understood probability or statistics, as I don't trust or believe in them. I used to have massive rows with my Statistics lecturer at University...

I'm off for an early night, as I was up until the early hours today (if that makes sense). So once again I'm happy to hand over the quiz to someone else (assuming the bonus questions give me a win

).

Daithi · 05-29-2012, 06:00 PM

Orlok did get all the bonus questions correct. I was shocked by the results of this quiz, and I just couldn't believe that so many people didn't know that the earth revolved around the sun, or that it took 365 to make the trip. So, I asked two people I work with these questions. One of them thought the Sun revolved around the earth, but she did know it took 365 days. The other guy knew the earth went around the sun, but thought it only took a day. I stopped asking any other people at this point.

On the baseball and bat question, I have to admit that I did have to think about it for a second. My first thought was $0.10 and $1.00, but at least I quickly realized that was only $0.90 more.

The lilypad question just seemed obvious.

The mammogram question did make me think, and even then I had to go look up the answer because I wasn't sure. Billi got it right with 50%. The reason is that there were 9 correct positive tests and 9 false positive tests, so it is 50/50.

SneakySnake · 05-29-2012, 11:55 PM

Having just made an appointment for the titty squeezer (tomorrow), I am not going to look at your stats! The mamogram is uncomfortable enough without having to worry about false positive etc. As long as they don't have false negatives.

orlok · 05-30-2012, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daithi

The mammogram question did make me think, and even then I had to go look up the answer because I wasn't sure. Billi got it right with 50%. The reason is that there were 9 correct positive tests and 9 false positive tests, so it is 50/50.

See now? That's exactly what I was talking about! I don't believe that stat, and I never will get it

.

Rant not aimed at you, Daithi. Rather at my dislike of statistics

.

orlok · 05-30-2012, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SneakySnake

Having just made an appointment for the titty squeezer (tomorrow), I am not going to look at your stats! The mamogram is uncomfortable enough without having to worry about false positive etc. As long as they don't have false negatives.

First time I've heard it called that. Good luck.

Fbone · 05-31-2012, 05:57 PM

May I ask the next question?

What is the oldest running bookstore?

Name
City
Date established

SneakySnake · 05-31-2012, 06:59 PM

This one??

orlok · 06-01-2012, 03:46 AM

Foyles?
London?
No eyed-deer.

Fbone · 06-01-2012, 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orlok

Foyles?
London?
No eyed-deer.

Sorry, no. Foyles isn't very old.

Fbone · 06-02-2012, 03:58 PM

I better answer so we can move on.

Bertrand in Lisbon, Portugal. Established in 1732.

Korn & Berg in Nürnberg opened in 1531 but was closed (destroyed) during WW2 and re-opened in 1952. So it probably would have been the oldest operating bookstore. Some parties still consider it to be the oldest.

Moravian Bookstore in Bethlehem, PA opened in 1745 would be next in line.

SneakySnake · 06-03-2012, 03:57 AM

Geeze books from those times must be interesting. Many of them would have been hand scribed by monks in a dark basement. - Reminds me of a cartoon I saw once.

Where the monk is in the basement in tears crying out "The word is celebrate"

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05-29-2012, 04:47 PM	#7846
orlok Close to the Edit! Posts: 9,797 Karma: 267994408 Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis, Amazon Fire 8", Kindle 6"	Suppose you have a close friend who has a lump in her breast and must have a mammogram. Of 100 women like her, 10 of them actually have a malignant tumor and 90 of them do not. Of the 10 women who actually have a tumor, the mammogram indicates correctly that 9 of them have a tumor and indicates incorrectly that 1 of them does not have a tumor. Of the 90 women who do not have a tumor, the mammogram indicates correctly that 81 of them do not have a tumor and indicates incorrectly that 9 of them do have a tumor. The table below summarizes all of this information. Imagine that your friend tests positive (as if she had a tumor), what is the likelihood that she actually has a tumor? 90% ? Bonus Questions Q) Does the Earth go around the Sun, or does the Sun go around the Earth? Earth goes around the Sun (duh) Q) How long does it take for the Earth to go around the Sun? (one day, one month, one year) One year Q) A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? 5 cents Q) In a lake, there is a patch of lilypads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake?[/QUOTE] 47 days

05-29-2012, 05:13 PM	#7849
Billi Wizard Posts: 3,388 Karma: 14190103 Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Berlin Device: Cybook, iRex, PB, Onyx	No need to say sorry. That sounds logical. My reasoning was that the test gives back 18 positive tumor results and we have 10 actual tumor diseases, so it's a ratio of 10:9.

05-29-2012, 05:20 PM	#7850
orlok Close to the Edit! Posts: 9,797 Karma: 267994408 Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis, Amazon Fire 8", Kindle 6"	For all I know you could be right. I've never understood probability or statistics, as I don't trust or believe in them. I used to have massive rows with my Statistics lecturer at University... I'm off for an early night, as I was up until the early hours today (if that makes sense). So once again I'm happy to hand over the quiz to someone else (assuming the bonus questions give me a win ).

05-29-2012, 06:00 PM	#7851
Daithi Publishers are evil! Posts: 2,418 Karma: 36205264 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Rhode Island Device: Various Kindles	Orlok did get all the bonus questions correct. I was shocked by the results of this quiz, and I just couldn't believe that so many people didn't know that the earth revolved around the sun, or that it took 365 to make the trip. So, I asked two people I work with these questions. One of them thought the Sun revolved around the earth, but she did know it took 365 days. The other guy knew the earth went around the sun, but thought it only took a day. I stopped asking any other people at this point. On the baseball and bat question, I have to admit that I did have to think about it for a second. My first thought was $0.10 and $1.00, but at least I quickly realized that was only $0.90 more. The lilypad question just seemed obvious. The mammogram question did make me think, and even then I had to go look up the answer because I wasn't sure. Billi got it right with 50%. The reason is that there were 9 correct positive tests and 9 false positive tests, so it is 50/50.

05-29-2012, 11:55 PM	#7852
SneakySnake I'm watching you! Posts: 6,113 Karma: 22344652 Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Sunny Coast Qld, OZ Device: Sony PRS-900(unused lately) iPadAir2, want me Kindle Oasis	Having just made an appointment for the titty squeezer (tomorrow), I am not going to look at your stats! The mamogram is uncomfortable enough without having to worry about false positive etc. As long as they don't have false negatives.

05-31-2012, 05:57 PM	#7855
Fbone Is that a sandwich? Posts: 8,297 Karma: 101697116 Join Date: Jun 2010 Device: Nook Glowlight Plus	May I ask the next question? What is the oldest running bookstore? Name City Date established

05-31-2012, 06:59 PM	#7856
SneakySnake I'm watching you! Posts: 6,113 Karma: 22344652 Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Sunny Coast Qld, OZ Device: Sony PRS-900(unused lately) iPadAir2, want me Kindle Oasis	This one??

06-01-2012, 03:46 AM	#7857
orlok Close to the Edit! Posts: 9,797 Karma: 267994408 Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis, Amazon Fire 8", Kindle 6"	Foyles? London? No eyed-deer.

06-02-2012, 03:58 PM	#7859
Fbone Is that a sandwich? Posts: 8,297 Karma: 101697116 Join Date: Jun 2010 Device: Nook Glowlight Plus	I better answer so we can move on. Bertrand in Lisbon, Portugal. Established in 1732. Korn & Berg in Nürnberg opened in 1531 but was closed (destroyed) during WW2 and re-opened in 1952. So it probably would have been the oldest operating bookstore. Some parties still consider it to be the oldest. Moravian Bookstore in Bethlehem, PA opened in 1745 would be next in line.

06-03-2012, 03:57 AM	#7860
SneakySnake I'm watching you! Posts: 6,113 Karma: 22344652 Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Sunny Coast Qld, OZ Device: Sony PRS-900(unused lately) iPadAir2, want me Kindle Oasis	Geeze books from those times must be interesting. Many of them would have been hand scribed by monks in a dark basement. - Reminds me of a cartoon I saw once. Where the monk is in the basement in tears crying out "The word is celebrate"

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