Quote:
Originally Posted by Kali Yuga
Again, you set your own definitions of success for yourself, and that's fine.
As to "what you become" if you try to build an audience, you become a commercial artist. Artists who have produced top-quality work in a commercial context, without feeling like they've compromised their values or integrity, is far too long to list here.
However, "I don't want to be a promoter" etc is pretty much why publishers -- or, at least, professional intermediaries -- will likely have a role for a long time to come. Many writers simply don't want to take up all the other roles, and/or aren't as good at performing those tasks as an experienced professional.
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Professional marketers I can see having a role (no matter how much that whole industry makes my stomach churn) publishers not so much. I just don't see what their purpose is any longer. If you want an audience, you can build up a pretty decent one just by being honest and offering your work for free in several locations. Sure, you won't make a living, but you wouldn't with the publishers either and there you'd have to answer to a lot more than just yourself and the pace would be a lot slower. And the problem I have with experienced professionals is that this is the internet, there's not anybody around who can project yesterday onto tomorrow, especially not within the digital realm. Just look at Twitter and Facebook, a month ago they're the hottest things around, now they're the nearest thing to lepracy.
Saying all that, here's a few predictions
The book industry collapses in on itself through sheer ignorance and insistence on letting dinosaurs run their business models. From the ashes a few dedicated small publishers start up business alongside independent authors. There is more choice than ever, and a lot of it is damn good. These new publishers don't work like the publishers of old. They don't rely on agent recommendations, they scout talent themselves (as it should have been from the get go). There are no advances, but the slice of the pie is much greater and much more equal - I'd expect the writer to get at least 40-50% under these new deals. These smaller publishers will take more risks, will foster and develop talent and the community that needs to build up around that talent. Across the board more writers will make a 'working wage' and less will be 'super rich'. There'll be a lot of genre imprints, and a very great many of them will sign on with Baen / Webscriptions, which will become a powerhouse of sorts within that genre.
DRM will disappear within three years, as will all 'new super-duper enhanced formats'. ePub will become a defacto standard. Anybody who tries to lock down their format in any way will be ignored. Editors and writer teams will make up the top-hierarchies in these new, digital savvy publishing houses. Also, writer collectives will finally gain traction and becoming publishing houses in their own right. Most agents will have to sell aluminium cans for cents on the dollar, and, if there is any justice, be pelted with rotten vegetables in the street as they pass by. Also, the agents must ring a bell and shout 'unclean' whenever they are in the vicinity of real human beings