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Old 12-30-2010, 04:24 PM   #1
pdurrant
The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠
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This thread is for the tracking of any honourable wagers members make with each other on this site. One post per wager, which should set forth the general terms of the wager and links to the posts that set the wager up for full details.

When the wager has been decided, the result will be added to the post here.

Summary: One post per wager. No comments.

Non-wager posts will be deleted without notice or warning.

Last edited by pdurrant; 05-25-2015 at 02:07 PM.
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Old 12-30-2010, 04:24 PM   #2
pdurrant
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3bayjunkie View Post
ill take bets on that. Ill still be here in 5 years if the forum is still up so lets say. 20 dollars per 1 year short you are pdurrant. and ill pay you 20 dollars for every year over I am.
Hmm.... So I say 5 years and you say 20 years. We'd need to define terms a bit. How about

1) Mobileread must still be running, and we must both still be active members.
2) The start date is 1st January 2011
3) The end date is the date a commercial product is shipped and received by a real customer. The bet to be settled within 30 days of the end date.
4) The product must contain a colour (at least thousands of colours) very low power (about the same as current eInk displays) display capable of 25fps (UK video) refresh rate. The power requirement is for colour ebook display. Display of video may use more power.
5) In case of dispute as to whether a shipped product meets these conditions, the dispute to be decided by a Mobileread poll lasting 14 days.

If such a product appears with an end date before 1st January 2031, you pay me $20 for every year or part year. e.g. if the first such product arrived in customer hands on 15 November 2025, you'd pay me (2031-2025)*$20 = $120

If such a product appears with an end date after 31st December 2015, I'll pay you $20 for very year or part of year. e.g. if the first such product ships on 15 November 2025, I'd pay you (2025-2015)*$20 = $200.

Hmm.. if it ships in 2023 we break even. If it ships earlier, I make money. If it ships later, you make money.

I'd be very happy with such a bet!
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Old 12-30-2010, 04:27 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3bayjunkie View Post
well if thats the case then I will owe you $750. so we will see =)
I calculate it as $320 or possibly $300, depending on when we start the bet.

I have to say I think it a very poor bet from your point of view. But I suppose if I didn't think that, I wouldn't be willing to accept!

Are we on?
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Old 12-30-2010, 04:34 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pdurrant View Post
I calculate it as $320 or possibly $300, depending on when we start the bet.

I have to say I think it a very poor bet from your point of view. But I suppose if I didn't think that, I wouldn't be willing to accept!

Are we on?
yes that sounds fair! =) oh btw you put $2 on your post instead of $20
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Old 12-30-2010, 05:35 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3bayjunkie View Post
yes that sounds fair! =) oh btw you put $2 on your post instead of $20
Typo fixed. OK, you're on!
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Old 04-27-2012, 02:41 PM   #6
pdurrant
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Wager: Going DRM-free will not harm TOR's ebook sales in a significant way over the first year of DRM-free sales. (Details, as usual, in original posts.)

Participants:
pdurrant
Spoiler:
If, after going DRM free at or below their current ebook prices, TOR's ebook sales over the following year do not increase by at least 75% of the general ebook market unit increase (Or SF/Fantasy category increase if that is, by then, counted separately), I will cease to advocate for DRM free ebooks, and, indeed, I'll recommend that publishers should keep DRM on their ebooks.

stonetools
Spoiler:
So the likelihood is that prices willl stay the same or rise. As to whether there will be significant losses from casual sharing, the purpose of this experiment is to generate data on this issue. There will be solid results in a year or so. If there are no significant losses, I will change my mind on the issue and switch to urging publishers to abandon DRM.



[EDIT, October 2014: I think it's safe to say that I (pdurrant) have won this one. But stonetools doesn't seem to be active at MobileRead any more.]

Last edited by pdurrant; 10-14-2014 at 02:41 AM.
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Old 07-11-2013, 07:27 AM   #7
pdurrant
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Wager: For 1/2 ounce gold (RSE) against one US cent (Fluribus) on each of two propositions.

Wager a: The Walt Disney Corporation, directly or indrectly, will attempt to have US Copyright term extended again before the end of 2022

Wager b: That the attempt will succeed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward View Post
I have one 1/2 oz gold piece that says the attempt will be made before 2022.

I have another that says it will get slipped in successfully (in a last minute negotiation before 2023, as a rider to some other bill.)



Bet?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fluribus View Post
I have a standard zinc penny that says it won't. He's an argumentative little fellow.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward View Post
Done. A penny here, a penny there....


The mouse house is simply not going to roll over and go to sleep when their business model is at stake. They haven't in the past, they won't in the future.

Last edited by pdurrant; 05-05-2014 at 04:42 AM.
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Old 10-13-2014, 04:15 AM   #8
pdurrant
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A wager between and Ralph Sir Edward and me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pdurrant View Post
No-one will run a e-cat in a sustainable way (i.e. self-generating the power for its heating coils) in the next five years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward View Post
Done. Name the stakes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdurrant View Post
A gold sovereign seems fine. (Current value around £200)
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