Judging the future of the Foleo

[Bob Russell]

Okay, we've had a day to clear our heads and begin the long process of evaluating the Foleo. Almost universally, we didn't like what we first saw, and we strained a bit to understand what it can do and why someone would buy one. (My number one target market would be field organizations that already need phones, but also need to run applications like sales force automation or have access to centralized web applications or resources.)

So, while we are continuing to formulate our opinions, and as they shift this way and that way as we look at the Foleo from all kinds of angles, there is one interesting angle I haven't seen talked about much.

If the Foleo is the start of a third line of business for Palm, then where is it headed, and how can we judge it?

Clearly, we can't just look at the limited first version. If we were to judge the entire future of the Palm Pilot based on the first model, or the entire line of Palm Treos based on the first Handspring model, we would be missing the boat. Same for the Foleo.

So consider a theoretical Foleo device of the future:

* Relatively cheap
* A common, widespread version of Linux
* Light and convenient to carry
* Built like a rock and hard to break
* Like a UMPC, but based on Linux
* Makes email, web browsing, multimedia and document creation/editing simple
* Data and applications are tightly integrated with your smart phone. Applications have Foleo and smart phone components (sort of like some software has desktop and PDA components, but continuously in sync and more tightly coupled).
* Almost everything you want to do can be done via the fully capable and speedy web browser. In the future, there's no reason not to expect just about every kind of application to be available in a web application version. Future applications are also expected to be able to handle periods of offline activity. Multiple companies are working on that already, like Adobe and Google.
* Your smartphone is always with you, and when your Foleo is with you there is really no need to worry about moving data around or synching back up, because as far as you are concerned it's available the same way no matter which device you choose to use.
* Foleo's could ultimately become so cheap that you could leave them laying around the house. Libraries and schools could have them, in versions that work with any smartphone or application in conjunction with web versions of applications. They could become as commonplace as Tribbles on the Enterprise.
* Full fledged PCs could also eventually sync in similar manners to the Foleo/smart phone pairings, meaning that your smart phone has "everything you need" to personalize your computing experience, and you can use other computing form factors for more power and more input/output flexibility. Yet never have to worry about syncing.
* Your smart phone always gives you access, and on one data plan, no matter what computer you use.

I could go on and on, but you get the idea. It's sort of like a mobile and desktop and web computing utopia, and the Foleo concept is the key missing piece right now. It just has to mature. A lot!

If you think back about Hawkins' original statement about how this new line of business is a natural evolution of mobile computing and persistent connections and increased performance in mobile devices, it starts to make a lot more sense.

Maybe I'm still missing the boat (because I still have trouble understanding how the first generations of Foleo's are going to sell), but if we judge the future of the Foleo by ignoring technological limitations of today, you can't help but think that Hawkins may really be onto something. Maybe it's a little fuzzy even in his mind because of the uncertainty of exactly what can be done on the hardware/software/social side of things. But maybe he's still a great visionary, and is one of the first to try to verbalize the future of computing. Maybe with the Foleo, he's the first to take a step in that direction (well, technically Microsoft is probably pursuing a parallel direction with the UMPC and Win Mobile, but aiming at a more powerful client that runs Windows, of course).

Take a step back from the technology of this current generation of Foleo and see if maybe we can still see the forest despite the trees.

[yvanleterrible]

I'll really have to try this one out in a store first. It will feel like the first Mac when there was only MacPaint and MacWrite to try out!

[Alexander Turcic]

My opinion... The Foleo might be useful to some. And yet, it is completely un-revolutionary, unlike the Treo when it came out.

Palm has fallen far behind in the innovation department and has lost considerable market share. Instead of renovating their one and only winning product, the now-bulky Treo, they ignore all pleas from Palm fans to come up with something, uhm, that is new. Other than the lower price and longer battery life, the Foleo has no benefits over a UMPC from Microsoft or Samsung. The UMPC, on the other hand, is lighter and offers more functionality.

And the thing about Linux... Linux alone isn't going to make the Foleo fly.

[nathanwms]

My main issue with the Foleo is the price. It's hard for me to justify paying $600 (minus $100 rebate) for a Foleo when I can get a Kohjinsha ultra-portable, 7 inch screen swivel screen, Win XP, BT 2.0, 802.11G, built-in keyboard, 512MB RAM, 40GB HD, SD, CF, Video out, 2 USB for $691 through Conics.net .

I know some people don't need all the extra ability, but a $299 Foleo would have much better appeal against competition, which has more features and not much more in price.

I also think it was a mistake developing a variant of Linux that does not allow me to take advantage of the thousands of available open-source Linux applications. I'm not a Linux guru, but I believe it would have been just as easy to reduce unnecessary features and scale Linux down (like say Damn Small Linux) but still able to use quality Linux applications. Then they could design the Foleo to be instant-on and write the custom features to allow the one-touch syncing without crippling Linux in the process.

Foleo is in my estimation a good idea but poor execution. Unless Palm does something soon, I believe the market (UMPCs, MIDs, Ubuntu Mobile/Embedded Linux, Redflag Midinux, etc) will make the Foleo irrelevant.

[NatCh]

To me, the biggest 'what were they thinking' about the Foleo is the weight. I mean 2.5lbs?

[Bob Russell]

Yep, I think that's not very light. But that will improve, and for now they seem to want to sell to execs and businesses (my guess), so they probably wanted it to be sturdy rather than light.

[orcinus]

How will it improve?

*NEW* *NEW* *NEW*

For only 500 USD extra, now you can outfit your Foleo (TM) (C) (R) with an ANTI GRAVITY DEFUMBIBLITATOR Super Ultra Plus!
Reduce* your Foleo's (TM) (C) (R) weight! ORDER NOW!

*NEW* *NEW* *NEW*


* The Foleo Anti Gravity Defumbiblitator weighs merely 1.25 additional lbs. and is guaranteed to reduce your Foleo's (TM) (C) (R) weight by an incredible 50%!

[orcinus]

By the way, your "theoretical Foleo device of the future" is called OLPC

[Gameboy70]

Originally Posted by nathanwms

My main issue with the Foleo is the price. It's hard for me to justify paying $600 (minus $100 rebate) for a Foleo when I can get a Kohjinsha ultra-portable, 7 inch screen swivel screen, Win XP, BT 2.0, 802.11G, built-in keyboard, 512MB RAM, 40GB HD, SD, CF, Video out, 2 USB for $691 through Conics.net .

I know some people don't need all the extra ability, but a $299 Foleo would have much better appeal against competition, which has more features and not much more in price.

I also think it was a mistake developing a variant of Linux that does not allow me to take advantage of the thousands of available open-source Linux applications. I'm not a Linux guru, but I believe it would have been just as easy to reduce unnecessary features and scale Linux down (like say Damn Small Linux) but still able to use quality Linux applications. Then they could design the Foleo to be instant-on and write the custom features to allow the one-touch syncing without crippling Linux in the process.

Foleo is in my estimation a good idea but poor execution. Unless Palm does something soon, I believe the market (UMPCs, MIDs, Ubuntu Mobile/Embedded Linux, Redflag Midinux, etc) will make the Foleo irrelevant.

I've read that the Foleo uses a standard 2.4.21-rmk1-pxa1-intc2 kernel, built for Intel PXA27x XScale processors. From a developer perspective, the kernel is less relevant than the desktop environment being used, of which at present we have zero details. I expect the OS (i.e. the whole platform, not just the kernel) to have some proprietary middleware, not unlike OS X. I expect the SDK to use some dual-license toolkit similar to QT.

I'm fine with the price, though less is always "more" from a consumer perspective. As a former Psion Series 7 owner, I've longed to have an instant-on laptop since my S7 died. Once you've enjoyed a daily computing experience of instant-on and application lauches without splash screens, sitting though a two-minute boot sequence is torture. The Psion fused the responsiveness of a PDA with the ergonomics of a laptop, which made it worth every penny of the $899 I paid for it. Hell, I'd fork over the Foleo's price, $599 for an S7 on eBay if anyone were selling. I'm just glad the Palm's releasing a more modernized rendering of the concept.

[clicclic]

One thing about the Palm community: we always find new ways to do things using the hardware given us. I really think its too early to walk away from this new product category. I highly highly doubt Palm will lock up the hackability of this new device with their middleware layer. If anything Palm has re-awakened to the genius of its users and plans to leverage that in this new device. Granted, that user base wasn't enough to keep Windows Mobile from taking over the corporate segment but it has been enough to expand the Treo's popularity by orders of magnitude.


In other words, wait to see what this little laptop is capable of. I agree that a price point of $300 is way more realistic, but possibly some Palm pricing executive just sold his house. And in that business you can always lower the price of your house, but not the inverse...