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Old 11-05-2019, 10:50 PM   #1
leebase
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Netflix vs Disney vs Apple

I think there are direct lessons in the streaming wars to what we've been discussing with regard to copyright. What is the value of Intellectual Property.

Netflix got the ball rolling with streaming. At first, Netflix just licensed their content from HBO, Warner Brothers et. al. Shows would come and go on Netflix because the rights were always time boxed. Eventually, Netflix started investing billions in their own shows. Both truly original, and licensed takes on existing properties like Daredevil.

Apple and Disney both launched their streaming services this month. Apple has just a handful of shows. All completely original (as far as IP is concerned). No back catalog.

Disney, come the 12th of the month, will unleash Disney+ with the entire back catalogue of Disney, Pixar, Marvel and Star Wars movies as well as some original shows (both new IP and extensions of their existing IP properties).

How valuable is this intellectual property? George Lucas was paid $4 Billion....that's FOUR BILLION DOLLARS for the complete rights to all the Star Wars movies...including the rights to create all new Star Wars movies, shows and the like.

Steve Jobs died a billionaire....but not from his amazing work in creating Apple. Jobs sold all his shares but 1 when they fired him. So he was "kinda rich" but not a billionaire....UNTIL....he bought a fledgling Lucas movie and technology company, renamed it Pixar and launched the most successful "non-Disney" kids movie making company of all time. And then sold Pixar to Disney making Jobs the largest single stock holder of Disney and a multi-billionaire at his death.

Intellectual PROPERTY. Codified by copyright and trademark laws. Employing hundreds of thousands of people. Bringing entertainment to billions across the globe.

Every story isn't valuable. For every Friends and The Office show that exists in perpetual syndication are countless forgettable tv shows....not to mention all the pilots that never even got green lit....and the multitude of screen plays that garner no attention.

Billions to be made in merchandising. Billions for theme parks. Billions to be made in syndication. Billions in video games. Billions to be made in future books, movies and tv shows continuing the mining of the INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY.

Content is king. Intellectual Property is king. And it's d@mn hard t rise above the vast crowd and grab, and as importantly...keep, people's interest.

You think Apple didn't contemplate making their own Spiderman or Star Wars movie? You think Amazon didn't understand the urgency of creating content that THEY owned?

Intellectual Property does not hinder the creation of new stories. We can see that there is a variety at play. Pay to license content. Pay a license to create new content upon existing IP. Or Pay to create brand new content such that YOU own the IP. All are part of the mix of anyone endeavoring to work in this industry that only exists because of the concept of Intellectual Property as created and codified in our copyright and trademark laws.

Nobody is going to invest hundreds of millions of dollars to bring a story to the big screen if they can't own the result. If anyone and everyone can copy...there there can be no value. And with no value, comes no investment.

Look again at Apple. There already exists a myriad of streaming services that all have extensive catalogs of content. And Apple decided to invest their own money in their own original content. Disney has been building their own content mamoth library for decades through creation and acquisition. And Netflix is doing a bit of both....licensing and creating original content.

It's the wild wild west with this move to streaming content. You have Amazon Prime, Hulu (now owned by Disney), ESPN (again, Disney), CBS, NBC, Comcast and more....all looking to get into streaming. All gunning for Netflix. Heck, my sister subscribes to the Hallmark streaming app!

Copyright and trade mark enable these industries to exist. They don't hinder innovation....not nearly to the extent compared to the creativity they enable to be unleashed.
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Old 11-05-2019, 11:10 PM   #2
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There's the upcoming HBO/Max that's going to include content from Warner Brothers and there's also the DC streaming service. Then there is a service called BritBox which is from the BBC and ITV.

It's getting so to watch everything you want, you'll have to pay umpteen different services including your local cable/satellite provider. This is getting rather silly.
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Old 11-05-2019, 11:52 PM   #3
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There's the upcoming HBO/Max that's going to include content from Warner Brothers and there's also the DC streaming service. Then there is a service called BritBox which is from the BBC and ITV.

It's getting so to watch everything you want, you'll have to pay umpteen different services including your local cable/satellite provider. This is getting rather silly.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Myself....I will keep Netflix (most likely) and Prime Video (it’s included with Prime that I subscribe for the shipping benefits). I get a year of AppleTv due to the iPhone purchase.

Everything else is subscribe:binge:unsubscribe. I did that with Game of Thrones and Westworld. Just waited for the season to be over and subscribe for a month...kind of like renting a movie.

Disney will likely get a few months from me just to watch a movie or two.
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Old 11-06-2019, 05:41 AM   #4
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It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Myself....I will keep Netflix (most likely) and Prime Video (it’s included with Prime that I subscribe for the shipping benefits). I get a year of AppleTv due to the iPhone purchase.
Right now we've got Netflix, Prime and Hulu. My wife's new Sprint plan will include Prime and Hulu "free" (and her new Sprint plan is actually cheaper than her old one). Since I've got kids, we'll probably look into the Disney Channel (at least for a few months). We haven't had any kind of cable for a long time.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:18 AM   #5
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I think there are direct lessons in the streaming wars to what we've been discussing with regard to copyright. What is the value of Intellectual Property.

...
The flip side is to consider how much has been lost because the copyright owner didn't see the value of preserving a copy of many video works. Not just movies, but famous TV shows. (The back story behind the restoration and re-issue of John Wayne's The High and The Mighty is pretty interesting
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...e15-story.html
)

No, all works are not the same. One of the issues that Netflix faces is their most popular shows are shows like The Office and Friends rather than their original content shows. Yes, there is tremendous value to the Disney vault, which of course was the driving force behind the US joining the Berne Treaty and extending copyright from 28+28 to the current value. No one denies that.

I've got a year subscription to the Disney+ because I have Verizon unlimited data, a year subscription to Apple TV+ because I just bought an iPad and a subscription to the CBS streaming service because I have a subscription to another CBS service. Add in Prime Video and that's a lot of content.

Content is king in the streaming video battles. Netflix and Apple is going to have a very tough time building up enough of a catalogue to challenge Disney. They really have to hope that they will create the next must watch series, a la Game of Thrones. That's going to be a tough roe to hoe. Amazon has a couple of series coming up that I definitely want to see, especially the LOTR prequel series, but as we have seen, a series can be a flop if without the right creative talent.
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Old 11-06-2019, 11:39 AM   #6
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I think it is pretty obvious that we seem to be heading toward paying new masters for our video entertainment addictions. In my younger days you either went to a movie theater or you watched broadcast TV which was supported by advertisements. In the 1970s cable TV began to be available in the larger cities and towns in my geographical location, and if you chose that route it cost you money, and a new master of entertainment was born: Big Cable. They dominated the way we viewed video entertainment. At long last we had something other than the handful of local broadcast TV stations to watch and we could now view content from all over the planet, but at a price.

Eventually in the 1980s, or perhaps a bit earlier, the satellite services started popping up to compete, but in the days of huge 8 foot dish antennas that had to be manually rotated to receive signals from multiple satellites, they were not much competition. At least not until they shrunk the dish down to about 2 feet and made manually moving the dish unnecessary and managed to have the same style of content and channels as cable. Now a days we can call then Big Cable and Big Satellite.

But then in the 1980s we saw the introduction of VCRs and their ability to watch what you wanted when you wanted for a price. Then we saw the advent of huge video rental companies like Blockbuster. Overtime that morphed into CDs and Blu-Ray, and the companies like Blockbuster got stomped into the ground by companies like Walmart who started selling videos. Then toward the end of the video rental heyday we saw companies like Netflix who would gladly mail you a video CD to watch for a price.

Eventually the internet caught on, smartphones and tablets along with computers could then view videos well enough to be enjoyable and technology improved until the internet services were good enough to stream video, for a price. So Big Cable and Big Phone began to switch their business model to include streaming high speed internet to us. Netflix had to change its corporate diaper and start streaming video to survive, and of course other services have built up a huge industry around streaming video entertainment. The way in which we receive and view our video entertainment is constantly changing. We have gone from OTA broadcasts with advertisements to paying our addiction masters Big Cable/Big Satellite, then paying video renting masters, then paying Big Phone and Big Cable for high speed internet to stream our video entertainment.

The current trend is the most depressing of all. We can no longer simply turn to Big Cable/Big Satellite nor live TV streaming services like DirectTV Now and Hulu to get a one stop addiction fix via multiple channels. Now there are multiple streaming services who don’t even focus on TV channels. Instead they focus on a few TV shows and/or movies. And the Big cable channels are now wanting to hold back some of their prime video entertainment unless we pay them a monthly subscription on top of what we already pay Big Cable and/or streaming services. There are dozens of such channels using that business model like CBS, MotorTrend, etc. It simply doesn't make sense to me to pay as much for video entertainment addiction per month as I do for my house payment and home insurance. The video addiction industry has become way to greedy. I don’t know how they will fair in the future, but surely we will get to the point where for many of us it is just too expensive to pay our addiction managers any more.

I keep hoping the video entertainment industry will self regulate and change for the better as more and more people refuse to pay so much for their services. DirecTV Now is said to be bleeding out fast. Other streaming services are supposedly struggling too, as are Big Cable/Big Satellite. I doubt legislators will won’t to force regulations, so the best hope will be the industry figures out a business model that people can live with and are able to afford. However, I’m very skeptical that the industry will do that, and many of us will eventually be priced out.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:43 PM   #7
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It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Myself....I will keep Netflix (most likely) and Prime Video (it’s included with Prime that I subscribe for the shipping benefits). I get a year of AppleTv due to the iPhone purchase.

Everything else is subscribe:binge:unsubscribe. I did that with Game of Thrones and Westworld. Just waited for the season to be over and subscribe for a month...kind of like renting a movie.

Disney will likely get a few months from me just to watch a movie or two.
Interesting indeed.
It is going to get bloody:

- Netflix has 150M subscribers
- Amazon has 105M
- HBO has 135M total and 10M on HBO NOW. (So HBOmax starts with ten on day one.)
- Hulu has 26M
- CBS has 4M
Add in CW, CWSEED, Pluto, Imdb TV, RokuTV, Tubi, Peacock and dozens of small narrow interest services plus ABC, FOX, NBC, CBS, and the "TV EVERYWHERE" apps and it's going to get crowded.

And then there's the live TV streamers: Philo, Sling, YoutubeTV, ATT TV, and more to come.

There's only so many eyeball hours to go around and churning (subscribing to a service for a month or two and cancelling to subscribe to another before eventually returning) is a *very* common strategy.

There is going to be a lot of money in streaming but not enough to support all the pretenders. Not right away but not everybody can drop $1-2 billion a year in new content and draw upon 10,000 hours worth of video libraries.

Netflix and Prime saw this coming and prepared for it, but the cablecos didn't.
Since 2016 they've lost $10B in revenue and are bleeding subscribers by the tens of thousand each month. No end in sight.

Not everybody will survive.
CBS/VIACOM know CBSAA isn't enough, which is why they bought Pluto.

Apple is (mostly) giving it away for free while they grow their libraries because 10-20 shows and their Brand isn't going to go far against Disney and WarnerMedia. One month worth of subscription once a year will exhaust their library.
They need to buy somebody.
Columbia Pictures (now Sony) is their best hope (Spiderman franchise not included) and Sony did just shut down Vue and sell control of Crackle so Columbia is doable. It won't be cheap but it will let them play withtbebig boys and their massive backlists.

Lionsgate is also in play ($6B in debt) but word is CBS/Viacom has dibs.
Doesn't leave much else in play.

Apple had better consider going ad-supported. NbcUniversal is, and they have a library. Just not Disney/Warner sized.

Everybody smaller is in trouble.
There will be blood.


Others may survive as ad-supported streaming services

Last edited by fjtorres; 11-06-2019 at 01:46 PM.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:44 PM   #8
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The "I can stream xyz for free" go to another ON TOPIC snip....but I digress.

People seem to have this notion that an author writes a story and money just lands in his lap forever. And the kids and grand kids get money flowing in forever too.

But no. Billions of dollars are invested AFTER the creation of the story to keep the story in demand. Snow White isn't popular because of the Grimms Fairy tales. Snow White is popular because of the Disney movie, followed by the Disney Theme Parks and merchandising which keeps little girls wanting to dress up like Snow White for halloween decades after the movie.

If you have a little girl and you've taken her to Disneyworld/land you'll know what I mean.

Distribution isn't even separate...it's part and parcel. Companies spent billions running cable all over the country, and sent satellites into space to just be in the game for delivering content. Content that had to be licensed. Content that drove the cable and satellite subscriptions. And now it's just morphing into a different delivery stream...with more billions being poured into the technology and into marketing and promotions.

These kinds of investment can only exist with the concept of intellectual property. And THOSE stories that are being backed by these massive investments...shouldn't be turned over "to society". Society isn't making these investments. Society is BENEFITING from the investments others are making.

That people want to write Harry Potter fan fiction is NOT merely the product of Rowling sitting in a cafe writing a book. It's all the marketing that made the book a hit....and then the movies...and now the theme parks...video games...and all manner of merchandising. And the cable, satellite and streaming delivery.

Continued...ongoing investment and THAT is what drives demand and value. And that value belongs to those making the investments.

Last edited by issybird; 11-06-2019 at 02:46 PM. Reason: Comment on moderation.
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Old 11-06-2019, 02:39 PM   #9
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I think it is pretty obvious that we seem to be heading toward paying new masters for our video entertainment addictions.

.
The cablecos and satcos don't own the content.
They are middlemen; more like bookstores than publishers.
They license the content from tbe studios, based on their subscriber numbers (license rategoes up with lower subscribers) so they are in it deep. Notice how carriage fee fights are more common and nastier? Less subscribers, less money, more fighting.

With the middlemen services declining, the media companies are using the tech to go direct to the source of the money: consumers.

You end up paying the same people for the content, but not the middlemen. Now the video publishers get all the money, directly, not whatever they can squeeze from the cablecos.

Try this: HBO costs viewers $15 a month. Of that, WarnerMedia gets $9 and the cable guys get $6. With HBO Now, WarnerMedia gets all the $15. So they can give consumers more content for the same $15 using the $6 that used to go to the cable companies. Cable HBO runs about 40 original shows but HBOMax will add another 50 originals because $6 a month times $130M is much more than the $2B they'll cost and because they need to be adding new content every month, every week, maybe every day, if possible, to reduce churn and maximize their return.

If you're WarnerMedia (or Disney) there's more money in streaming thantbere ever was in cable and it's all their's. No need to share like good little children.

And they're not alone:
Are you familiar with PHILO? And who owns them?
It offers 53 channels for $20 a month, DVR included.
No added fees.
No hidden taxes.
The exact same channels as a cable bundle (minus sports and news) from the actual owners of the channels. No siphoned money to COMCAST, Dish, or anybody else.
All you pay is what the owners get and tbe owners get all you psy.

That is the new model: you pay for the content (with money or watching ads) on a month by month basis. No contract, no added fees.

And for many people the ondemand services let you watch what you want when you want, not when it's broadcast. There's a reason there's a term for it--cordcutting--and why its accelerating.

Just like ebooks and publishing, video is evolving to better serve consumers by cutting out middlemen costs because all you absolutely need is producers and consumers.
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Old 11-06-2019, 02:48 PM   #10
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Continued...ongoing investment and THAT is what drives demand and value. And that value belongs to those making the investments.
And those making the investment in video see there is more money for more content in going direct and cutting out the middlemen. They want all the money, just not what Netflix or the cable company pays them. They control the content and want all the money the control is worth.
It's all about the money.
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Old 11-06-2019, 03:55 PM   #11
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The flip side is to consider how much has been lost because the copyright owner didn't see the value of preserving a copy of many video works. Not just movies, but famous TV shows. (The back story behind the restoration and re-issue of John Wayne's The High and The Mighty is pretty interesting
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...e15-story.html
)

No, all works are not the same. One of the issues that Netflix faces is their most popular shows are shows like The Office and Friends rather than their original content shows. Yes, there is tremendous value to the Disney vault, which of course was the driving force behind the US joining the Berne Treaty and extending copyright from 28+28 to the current value. No one denies that.

I've got a year subscription to the Disney+ because I have Verizon unlimited data, a year subscription to Apple TV+ because I just bought an iPad and a subscription to the CBS streaming service because I have a subscription to another CBS service. Add in Prime Video and that's a lot of content.

Content is king in the streaming video battles. Netflix and Apple is going to have a very tough time building up enough of a catalogue to challenge Disney. They really have to hope that they will create the next must watch series, a la Game of Thrones. That's going to be a tough roe to hoe. Amazon has a couple of series coming up that I definitely want to see, especially the LOTR prequel series, but as we have seen, a series can be a flop if without the right creative talent.
But Game of Thrones is HBO/Max and that includes His Dark Materials. And HBO is doing a GoT prequel. So that may get some subscribers unless they already have HBO via their TV provider.

The thing that will be interesting is to see wha happens in 2021 when these free year long trial of these services ends. Which ones will be kept?

We've got Netflix and Amazon Prime Video.
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:09 PM   #12
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And there's also the DC Universe streaming service.

It's getting to be too much.
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Old 11-06-2019, 05:04 PM   #13
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And there's also the DC Universe streaming service.

It's getting to be too much.
That content will probably be folded into HBO Max (Warner).

Warner's got a huge archive including some very popular franchises:
Harry Potter
LOTR
DC
Matrix
Game of Thrones

The question is will Warner pull their content from competing services once HBO Max is up and running? We already know Disney's pulling content from Netflix.

To be honest, I don't see how AppleTV+ is gonna compete unless they license content or acquire a studio.

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Old 11-06-2019, 05:22 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by ilovejedd View Post
That content will probably be folded into HBO Max (Warner).

Warner's got a huge archive including some very popular franchises:
Harry Potter
LOTR
DC
Matrix
Game of Thrones

The question is will Warner pull their content from competing services once HBO Max is up and running? We already know Disney's pulling content from Netflix.

To be honest, I don't see how AppleTV+ is gonna compete unless they license content or acquire a studio.
If the content from DC Universe streaming service was going to be folded into HBO/Max, then why have it as a separate streaming service? I don't think that will happen. I think DC Universe will remain on it's own.
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Old 11-06-2019, 05:34 PM   #15
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If the content from DC Universe streaming service was going to be folded into HBO/Max, then why have it as a separate streaming service? I don't think that will happen. I think DC Universe will remain on it's own.
HBO Max doesn't exist yet. DC Universe launched in 2018.

Warner needs to bring in the big guns now and consolidate considering the breadth of Disney's vault and very aggressive pricing of Disney+.

DC Universe may continue to exist as that's meant to compete with Marvel Unlimited (comics) as well. However, HBO Max needs DC included in the service as a counterpoint to Disney+'s Marvel.

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