Author Earnings goes international

[fjtorres]

The latest Author Earnings report is out and for the new release they are focusing on ebook sales in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Fifteen ebook stores tracked.

As usual, lots of charts, tables, and insights at the source. Highly recommended.

http://authorearnings.com/report/february-2017/

In the meantime, here's some highlights.

First, the context:

...............Population.........PBook Sales......Ebook Sales....Ebooks sales%
U.S.A.·......325,700,000....675,000,000.....487,29 8,000...........42%
U.K.·...........65,400,000....187,500,000.......95 ,623,000..........34%
Canada.......36,500,000.......50,500,000.......26, 017,000.........34%
Australia.....24,500,000........56,400,000......22 ,463,000.........28%
New Zealand 4,600,000..........5,300,000......1,306,000*...... ...20%*

Total: 456,700,000 974,700,000 632,707,000 39%

* No local Kindle bookstore in NZ - sales go through Amazon.com U.S.A.

Unit sales by ebookstore, per country:

....................Amazon.............Apple...... .........Kobo...............Nook

U.S.A.·......406,000,000.....44,041,000.......1,24 6,000......19,395,000
U.K.·...........84,029,000......7,201,000.......1, 132,000...........–
Canada.......14,892,000.......3,760,000.......6,47 9,000...........–
Australia.....13,604,000.......6,694,000.......1,3 99,000...........–
New Zealand........*...............831,000..........41 6,000...........–
Total:........518,526,000.....62,527,000......10,6 72,000.......19,395,000
% of Total:.......82%..............10%................2 %..................3%

Highlights:

• Unsurprisingly, Amazon is the majority retailer in just about every market.
• But in Canada and Australia, Amazon is a lot less dominant than in the US and the UK.
• Taken all together, Amazon accounts for more than 80% of English-language ebook purchases, Apple another 10%, Kobo 2% and Nook 3%
• The remaining 3%–ascribed to GooglePlay and all remaining channels–is most likely overly optimistic. Their true share might well be even lower.
• Self-published indie authors are verifiably capturing at least 24% – 34% of all ebook sales in each of the five English-language markets; it’s not just a US-only phenomenon. When you also include the uncategorized authors, the vast majority of whom are also self-published, the true indie share in each market lies somewhere between 30% – 40%.
• Indies are competing particularly well in the Canadian and Australian ebook markets, nearly approaching the level of dominance they currently hold in the US.
• The Big Five, on the other hand, are letting themselves progressively get squeezed out of nearly every English-Language ebook market. They make up only 38% of Canadian ebook purchases, and that’s the country where they are holding their ground best; in the US, the Big Five now account for barely 26% of all ebook sales.
• Amazon Imprints have made the most market headway in the US. Despite being single-retailer exclusive to Amazon Kindle, the dozen or so Amazon “house” publishing imprints between them account for 14% of all US ebook sales, 10% of all UK ebook sales, and 8% of Australian ebook sales. In Canada, the Amazon Imprint footprint is a much more modest 3% of all ebook sales, largely due to the substantial shares of the overall Canadian ebook market held by Kobo (25%) and Apple (14%).

For the US market specifically:

• Between early 2016 and early 2017, overall Amazon US ebook sales grew another 4%. While that’s not the kind of double-digit (or triple-digit) growth we had seen in the earlier days of the ebook era, it’s still more than enough to offset the ongoing shrinkage at Barnes&Noble’s Nook. In other words, albeit slowly now, the overall US ebook market is still growing.
• Indie ebook market share, after the sudden sharp drop that we reported in October 2016, seems to have bounced back a little in early 2017. It’s too early to conclude whether this is simply a plateau or the beginnings of a new phase in indie market share growth. We’ll be curious to see which direction things head as we move deeper into 2017.
• Amazon Imprints’ market share continues its steady climb. Amazon Publishing’s growing share of all Amazon ebook sales is a fascinating, and somewhat unsettling, trend to watch.
• Big Five ebook market share, on the other hand, after a brief flirtation with recovery in October 2016, has fallen precipitously once again in early 2017, to just 20.8%.
• As of February, titles published by the Big Five made up just 20.8%–or barely one fifth–of all Amazon US consumer ebook purchases.
• “Small/Medium Traditional Publishers,” as a cohort, have continued their slow, steady climb in unit market share, but their share of total consumer $ dollars spent on ebooks is rising far faster. In fact, per the below trend graph charting the shift in consumer $ spending, we can see that for the first time “Small/Medium Traditional Publishers” are capturing more total consumer dollars than the Big Five.
• Self-published indie authors are verifiably capturing at least 20% – 35% of all multi-country ebook sales at each retailer. When you also include the uncategorized authors, each retailer’s true multi-country indie share lies somewhere between 25% – 42%, with Amazon staking out the high end at 42% and B&N and Apple holding the low end at 25%.
• The Big Five have managed to hang on to more than half of all ebook sales at Apple and Barnes & Noble Nook. At B&N, in particular, their share tops 61%, but that merely makes them the largest fish in a rapidly-shrinking pond. (B&N’s overall ebook sales have contracted dramatically over the past few years, to where they are now make up less than 4% of the US total (or 3% of the five-country total)).

Much more at the source including pretty pictures detailing just how big Kindle Unlimited is. Highly recommended.

[fjtorres]

My own observation: interoperable epub/generic ADEPT adds up to less than 5% of tracked ebook sales. That is down from 20% in 2010 when Amazon hit their all-time low of 54% and Nook peaked at 26%. Then came Agency...

Make of it what you will.

[Fiat_Lux]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

As usual, lots of charts, tables, and insights at the source. Highly recommended.

And near the bottom of the comments, is the million title breakdown by language, and sales thereof.

And I was so sure that my book in !xi would break into that million title list.

Amber

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Fiat_Lux

And near the bottom of the comments, is the million title breakdown by language, and sales thereof.

And I was so sure that my book in !xi would break into that million title list.

Amber

Thanks for reminding me to go back to check the comments.
Data Guy answers questions there and there's a couple of doozies.
When the subject of enhanced ebooks came up, he explained there are more articles about enhanced ebooks than actual sales of enhanced ebooks.
Ouch.

More seriously, he quoted total reported German tradpub ebook sales at 20m a year and an estimate for the total market of 27-30m.

Puts a lot of market developments in context.

[pwalker8]

once again, I point out that no one, not Amazon, Apple, Kobo or B&N publishes actual sales figures. I know that it's attractive when there is no real data to take such estimates as gospel, but just keep in mind, it's just estimates that someone came up with and not real data.

[fjtorres]

Refresher for those that don't bother to actually read the reports through. Author Earnings methodology:

http://authorearnings.com/methodology/

Long-established techniques in use in the gaming and mobile software industry, calibrated with extensive *private* ebook data and tradpub industry pbook data.

Don't have to believe them if they don't match preconceptions but nobody has successfully challenged them. Not guesswork, not WAGs. As good as any other, more limited, source, better than most quoted by industry publications. Increasingly quoted by tradpubbers.

[Fbone]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Don't have to believe them if they don't match preconceptions but nobody has successfully challenged them. Not guesswork, not WAGs. As good as any other, more limited, source, better than most quoted by industry publications. Increasingly quoted by tradpubbers.

To be fair, the only ones who can challenge them are the retailers and publishers. And they aren't forthcoming probably for several reasons.

I would be more comfortable with his report if he didn't choose a day at the beginning of the month when the Kindle First titles are newly available. They briefly dominate the top 10.

Also, it would be interesting if he somehow could provide the raw data he actually receives. He says 20,000 titles. How many are in the top 10, 100, 1000, etc?

[GeoffR]

So how many ebooks are sold in New Zealand? No way to tell from the report because New Zealand Kindle sales are mixed in with the US and Australian figures. (New Zealanders can also buy Kindle books through amazon.com.au, not just through amazon.com.)

It seems like a serious flaw in the methodology to depend on the global retailers having local stores in each country, especially when Amazon is so far behind other retailers in that respect.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by GeoffR

So how many ebooks are sold in New Zealand? No way to tell from the report because New Zealand Kindle sales are mixed in with the US and Australian figures. (New Zealanders can also buy Kindle books through amazon.com.au, not just through amazon.com.)

It seems like a serious flaw in the methodology to depend on the global retailers having local stores in each country, especially when Amazon is so far behind other retailers in that respect.

True. He says so openly.
The same applies to UK and Canadian shoppers buying off the US Kindle store and US shoppers buying off Kindle UK.

But what he measures is ebookstore sales. Direct sales by authors or publishers are also excluded. The results are a measure of the stores' size more than of the national markets.

The alternative would be to exclude New Zealand from the report rather than highlight the issue but that wouldn't be fair to Kobo and Apple, whose sales are known.

We readers can gain useful nuggets from these reports but their intended audience is still authors and publishers. In New Zealand and Australia, one hopes the takeaway for both is that by going digital they can reach into the bigger ebook markets of the US and UK at no added cost. Which would mean more and distinct voices for readers beyond the antipodes. A double win, no?

For those based in the US, one takeaway should be that Nook still matters.

[Dazrin]

Originally Posted by Fbone

Also, it would be interesting if he somehow could provide the raw data he actually receives. He says 20,000 titles. How many are in the top 10, 100, 1000, etc?

Normally they publish the raw data for review. Weird that it isn't included in this one. You can check the data from October 2016 here to see what is normally included.

And then it clicked...

You mean the raw data he uses to calibrate the ranks to the sales, don't you? That would be very interesting to see but I doubt we will ever get that since it is probably harder to anonymize.

[Fbone]

Originally Posted by Dazrin

And then it clicked...

You mean the raw data he uses to calibrate the ranks to the sales, don't you? That would be very interesting to see but I doubt we will ever get that since it is probably harder to anonymize.

Yes, that's what I mean.

[fjtorres]

This is as close as we'll get to see the Kobo data:

http://authorearnings.com/wp-content...ales_curve.png

Apparently none of their informants made it to the top 10 at Kobo.
("Missed it by that much.")

[JSWolf]

Given that Amazon does not publish sales figures, these numbers are all GUESSES.

[rkomar]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

Given that Amazon does not publish sales figures, these numbers are all GUESSES.

So, what's your point? Would you prefer that no one made any effort at all to figure things out?

[pwalker8]

I think the point is that the numbers are all guesses and may or may not be accurate. Treating them like they are gospel simply because they are what's available leads one to all sorts of misconceptions. My skepticism about the numbers are based on authors who do have the real live sales figures saying that the estimates are wildly inaccurate.

There is an old saying in the military, never confuse the map with the territory. It may be the best map that is available, but that doesn't mean that it's accurate. There are many examples of bad maps leading to increased casualty levels in the US war in the Pacific during WW II.