My mama said: "In 10 years, those will be gone."

[Heim]

Originally Posted by Jessica Lares

What happened to the iPod? People started putting large storage and music players in feature phones and the smartphones that followed.

*Raises hands* I still use an iPod Classic. But you are right. I do get curious looks when I take it out of my bag.

[crich70]

E-books have one other advantage over paper that hasn't been mentioned yet. Some of them (especially the PD titles) are available for free online. For an older person on a limited income or who isn't able to get out and about like a younger person such is a distinct advantage of e-book reader tech. I would think. Paper books on the other hand are almost always an expense (unless loaned by a friend or from the library).

[latepaul]

Originally Posted by OtterBooks

Ah, paper, maybe so. I find it curious that after 500 years or so, the first device to really get people to consider a new medium for their books was only able to get rid of the paper aspect. Ink survived the transition to yet another medium in its 2000+ year use. People sure do seem to like reading their books in pigment. Yeah tablets and such have jumped on board, but I don't think dedicated ereaders are going anywhere until ink is succeeded in a way that satisfies its adherents.

You know that the "ink" in "eInk" isn't pigment right? It's just a metaphor in the same way the less commonly used "epaper" is.

[Heim]

Originally Posted by crich70

E-books have one other advantage over paper that hasn't been mentioned yet. Some of them (especially the PD titles) are available for free online. For an older person on a limited income or who isn't able to get out and about like a younger person such is a distinct advantage of e-book reader tech. I would think. Paper books on the other hand are almost always an expense (unless loaned by a friend or from the library).

Good point. Ereaders are also great for people with visual difficulties; the font size can be adjusted. They're also great for people with motor problems; There's no need to physically turn a page.

[latepaul]

On the wider issue, I don't know what will happen but a couple of things occur to me.

First, display technology will evolve. A lot of discussion right now is around eink vs lcd, ereaders vs tablets. And there have been various attempts at colour eink that haven't really taken off. I think when they finally get something like that right it'll be used across the board and separate ereaders will disappear because they're no longer needed. In other words I think the future is tablets but the displays will be much better.

Second, I'm wary of extrapolating from things like movies and music - even though it's the natural thing to do. The way MP3s replaced CDs which replaced Vinyl, and DVDs replaced VHS so easily was because they were an easier way to get to the contents and use it. There's a significant amount of people who like books as books, as objects. I think they're a much bigger proportion of book buyers than the vinyl lovers, and as for movies - I don't know anyone who likes VHS tapes as desirable objects. The closest equivalent would be people who would only want to see movies in a theatre but not also on DVD/TV. Now I still think the number of people I'm talking about is a minority but they are big book buyers (though often second hand), so I think they'll slow the takeover of digital considerably and affect exactly what proportion paper books eventually settles at.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by Katsunami

What do you think; where will e-reading stand in another 10 years from now?

I expect that in 10 years a large minority of books (from big publishers) will be ebook only initially. Most will be hardback/ebook only. And there will be small proportion that are hardback/paperback/ebook.

I also expect that the price on initial release of the ebook will be quite high still, dropping after a year or so, even though there'll be no paperback release.

I expect that ereaders will have gone the way of the PDA and the dedicated MP3 player. That is, subsumed into a more general device, with a few specialist models left for the few who want them.

[shanghaichica]

Originally Posted by Aer

Good point. Ereaders are also great for people with visual difficulties; the font size can be adjusted. They're also great for people with motor problems; There's no need to physically turn a page.

You know I never really thought about how ebooks could enhance reading for certain groups of people. However last week I saw an elderly lady at a bus stop reading on a kindle with enlarged text. It made me smile.

[OtterBooks]

Originally Posted by latepaul

You know that the "ink" in "eInk" isn't pigment right? It's just a metaphor in the same way the less commonly used "epaper" is.

It does seem like a metaphor, but it's a "2 Pigment System", with pigment particles suspended in fluid. "electronic ink is actually a straightforward fusion of chemistry, physics and electronics. It's so much like paper, it utilizes the same pigments used in the printing industry today." http://www.eink.com/technology.html

[latepaul]

That's not ink in the traditional sense though. I can't see anything that eInk shares with ink that isn't also shared with other display technologies (basically a means to make a contrasting set of hues/shades thereby making images, specifically characters, possible). There's liquid involved in both I suppose but they work in totally different ways.

[Heim]

Originally Posted by shanghaichica

You know I never really thought about how ebooks could enhance reading for certain groups of people. However last week I saw an elderly lady at a bus stop reading on a kindle with enlarged text. It made me smile.

It's amazing how new technologies can enrich people's lives. Without her Kindle this lady would have to look for large print editions of books.

Originally Posted by crich70

E-books have one other advantage over paper that hasn't been mentioned yet. Some of them (especially the PD titles) are available for free online. For an older person on a limited income or who isn't able to get out and about like a younger person such is a distinct advantage of e-book reader tech. I would think. Paper books on the other hand are almost always an expense (unless loaned by a friend or from the library).

Excellent point, and it is one major reason why I ended up buying an ereader. Yet I will point out that there are many cheap ways to obtain print books. If there wasn't, I my family would have been unable to afford books while I was growing up.

Another often overlooked benefit of ebooks is accessibility to books in remote areas. Rural areas, small towns, and even remote cities (think Alaska or the North West Territories) have access to a limited selection of books in libraries and book stores. Ebooks are available anywhere there is an internet connection.

That said, there is one thing that I do wish to point out about the more extreme predictions about the demise of print books. We are over emphasizing the word technophobe. We also need to recognize that many of the people on this forum are technophiles. Since we have an inherent bias towards technology, it is difficult for us to make reliable predictions of the future.

[tubemonkey]

Originally Posted by BWinmill

That said, there is one thing that I do wish to point out about the more extreme predictions about the demise of print books. We are over emphasizing the word technophobe. We also need to recognize that many of the people on this forum are technophiles. Since we have an inherent bias towards technology, it is difficult for us to make reliable predictions of the future.

Cost is another determining factor in the adoption of technology. When the Kindle was first introduced over six years ago (Nov 2007), it cost $400. Now you can get one for $50 on sale and load it with thousands of free titles from Amazon and public libraries.

Also, digital growth will rely heavily on access to the net. As prices drop and access becomes more widespread, adoption will quicken that much faster.

[Katsunami]

Originally Posted by Sydney's Mom

(and I am surprised your mother likes paper books--when I was sick recently, and my vision was bad, I just adjusted the font up several sizes, and I kept reading)

She would benefit from larger fonts. However, she doesn't necessarily like paper books: she dislikes technology. Any technology. The only reason why she has a computer is because she wants to store and organise large amounts of pictures, and she has a smartphone because she wants Whatsapp (or, more particular, NEEDS Whatsapp, because the rest of the family and her friends are on it).

Originally Posted by tubemonkey

...and access becomes more widespread...

I don't know how it is on other European countries or the US, but in the Netherlands, almost everybody has internet at home. If you have the most basic internet+TV+Phone subscription, the internet part costs around €5 a month. It's slow, granted (something like 128 or 256 kbyte down and 32 kbyte up), but it's still fast enough for all tasks required. You'll just wait longer.

Having a notebook/computer and internet is seen as a primary requirement. Finding a job apart from local manual labor is very hard, maybe even impossible without internet.

If you really don't have internet, you can pick up a second hand notebook for €50, take it to the library, and get free Wifi as long as you want. If even that is not possible, you can reserve a library computer. (I don't know if you're allowed to connect devices to it and run portable software... maybe you can, under supervision.)

[PurpleStar]

Originally Posted by Aer

*Raises hands* I still use an iPod Classic. But you are right. I do get curious looks when I take it out of my bag.

And I just got a new iPod Nano. Of course, most people just use their phones for music.

[Katsunami]

Originally Posted by PurpleStar

And I just got a new iPod Nano. Of course, most people just use their phones for music.

Yes, but if you want to store more than 64GB of music, then the iPod Classic is still your only choice. I've not yet seen an MP3-player or phone that officially accepts 128GB SDXC cards. Even then, the iPod Classic 160GB is still larger. Combining the cost of the card+device, makes the iPod Classic cheaper in many cases.

This is the only Apple device I've ever owned, because there just wasn't any other option. Now that I've changed over to FLAC an listening full albums again instead of shuffle, I've sold it because it can't hold my entire library anymore, and it can't play FLAC.

(At this point in time, there is only one 256GB SDXC card available in The Netherlands, and it costs €500.)