What will e-readers be like 10 years from now?

[Richwood]

Originally Posted by Cinisajoy

Hubby’s Samsung tablet has $150 screen. We discovered that when we took it to be repaired. No we didn't replace it.

Spare parts retail price. MUCH higher than manufacturing cost, direct parts and labor which was what I was guesstimating for the iphone. I would be surprised if the direct parts and labor cost for the latest Iphone is much over $100 to $150 absolute maximum in the quantities Apple makes them. Assembled from spare parts a car would cost 5X to 10X the retail price for the whole car.

I worked in electronics manufacturing for a division of Xerox in silicon valley and the direct parts and labor cost for the daisywheel printers we made was about 10% of the single unit retail price they listed for. This did not include all the overhead costs from engineering, R&D, Tech support, factory operating costs, marketing, taxes etc, plus making a profit.

[Alohamora]

Originally Posted by Richwood

Spare parts retail price. MUCH higher than manufacturing cost, direct parts and labor which was what I was guesstimating for the iphone. I would be surprised if the direct parts and labor cost for the latest Iphone is much over $100 to $150 absolute maximum in the quantities Apple makes them. Assembled from spare parts a car would cost 5X to 10X the retail price for the whole car.

I worked in electronics manufacturing for a division of Xerox in silicon valley and the direct parts and labor cost for the daisywheel printers we made was about 10% of the single unit retail price they listed for. This did not include all the overhead costs from engineering, R&D, Tech support, factory operating costs, marketing, taxes etc, plus making a profit.

$370 for iPhone X parts according to sources who track that sort of thing. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...one-8-ihs-says

But the iPhone cost is irrelevant when talking about ereaders. MSRP on phones that function perfectly well as readers and phones are in the $200 to $250 range. And sell for less than that when on sale or subsided by carriers. They lack the iPhone cameras and face recognition and super CPU s. Many here will argue my calling them suited for reading and I concede the point on outdoor visibility. But I don't normally read outside, so I don't care. They do have what I care about, 300 dpi 5.5 to 6 inch screens, beautiful, even, adjustable lighting for indoor reading. Smooth scrolling for quickly finding a book in my 600 book library. Fast response for page turns and Kindle's page flip. 8 hour screen on battery life.

Compare how LCD and e-ink have progressed over the last 10 years. The first Kindle was about 10 years ago, the first iPhone appeared almost 11 years ago. The development momentum is on the side of LCD/phone/tablet.

If the tablets have already killed large format readers, as at least one person said up-thread, I think the same will happen with small format readers in the next 10 years.

[GlenBarrington]

Originally Posted by Alohamora

If the tablets have already killed large format readers, as at least one person said up-thread, I think the same will happen with small format readers in the next 10 years.

Which makes me wonder, is the Kindle unfortunate overhead for Amazon? Or is it a valid product line? A lot of time, energy, and other resources go into producing and marketing the typical Kindle device.

Surely, by now, if Amazon just wanted to sell ebooks, the Kindle devices are redundant. Tablets won't kill the Kindles and the other readers. Larger screen smartphones might (My Moto Z2 play is almost good enough fo me to read on for long periods of time). But certainly, tablets will be killed by the smartphone first!

In the end, it is the reading I care most about. As long as I can read what I want, when I want, and in relative comfort, I'm good!

[jcsalomon]

Originally Posted by Richwood

A $1000 iPhone is to me highway robbery as I bet actual manufacturing cost is in the $50 or so range for direct parts and labor.

The folks buying $1000 iProducts are subsidizing the R&D for phone-related tech, so the next generation of manufacturing can actually produce them for $50. Everyone wins: Apple gets $$$, rich folks get their status symbols, component producers get good return-on-investment, and I get a cheaper phone that does much more.

[jcsalomon]

We can hope for high-resolution, fast-refresh, full-color screens which can be read equally well in sunlight or complete darkness, and we can even be sure they will eventually be developed. And when they are developed, we’ll have the perfect tablet/e-reader. But this will require some sort of engineering breakthrough, and that’s nigh-impossible to predict. Will it be available in 10 years or 30?—sooner, I hope; but who knows?

[Jeff2]

I won't offer prognostication, but I'll tell you what I want: one really nice book. I don't think e-readers per se have much of a future. As others have pointed out, tablets offer more utility in (nearly) the same form factor. What I'd prefer to see is a narrowing -- and eventual closing -- of the gap between e-readers and the technology of books.

If I could will such a device into existence it would be a relatively small volume, leather-bound, of perhaps a hundred pages (size and materials could be customized). But these would be truly dynamic pages -- the look and feel of paper with all the capabilities of e-ink. All the libraries of the world in a single, compact volume.

As I flip pages, the book dynamically keeps pace -- when I get to the end of the hundred pages I can go back to page one and continue reading. Or if I prefer the feel of balance in my hands (not to mention the feeling of being in the middle of a good book), I can swipe to change the page without actually flipping. With a stylus or a finger, I can highlight, scribble notes in the margin, or even open an inline text editor with dictation and handwriting recognition features. I can also 'freeze' content on pages or groups of pages, then flip back and forth between the two. This would be especially useful for researchers or anyone who wants to compare passages, end notes, etc.

I could go on, but this is the point: the future of e-readers (at least in my fantasies) lies not in merging them into tablets, but in making them look, feel, and behave like books.

[rem736]

Originally Posted by Jeff2

I won't offer prognostication, but I'll tell you what I want: one really nice book. I don't think e-readers per se have much of a future. As others have pointed out, tablets offer more utility in (nearly) the same form factor. What I'd prefer to see is a narrowing -- and eventual closing -- of the gap between e-readers and the technology of books.

If I could will such a device into existence it would be a relatively small volume, leather-bound, of perhaps a hundred pages (size and materials could be customized). But these would be truly dynamic pages -- the look and feel of paper with all the capabilities of e-ink. All the libraries of the world in a single, compact volume.

As I flip pages, the book dynamically keeps pace -- when I get to the end of the hundred pages I can go back to page one and continue reading. Or if I prefer the feel of balance in my hands (not to mention the feeling of being in the middle of a good book), I can swipe to change the page without actually flipping. With a stylus or a finger, I can highlight, scribble notes in the margin, or even open an inline text editor with dictation and handwriting recognition features. I can also 'freeze' content on pages or groups of pages, then flip back and forth between the two. This would be especially useful for researchers or anyone who wants to compare passages, end notes, etc.

I could go on, but this is the point: the future of e-readers (at least in my fantasies) lies not in merging them into tablets, but in making them look, feel, and behave like books.

i mentioned something similar here: https://www.mobileread.com/forums/sh...4&postcount=33

[Braid]

One of the things I love about e-readers is that they do not provide me with the option of conveniently checking my emails and various forums and other internet distractions.

So in that regard, when e-readers 'catch up' with tablets, I will find them less attractive devices.

[barryem]

Originally Posted by AnotherCat

Of course assembly, R&D, packaging, transport, marketing, etc. are on top. That said it is also claimed that Apple's margins are high compared to those of other phone manufacturers - I often wonder if that means that for phones of same retail price, the non Apple phone has higher quality components or just suffer higher component costs due to smaller volumes.

I think I read that Samsung sells more of their flagship phones than Iphone does so they'd have good volume discounts as well.

I remember seeing a TV interview with a General Motors executive, possibly the CEO or some such, about 20 or 30 years ago where he was asked why Cadillacs are so expensive and he said it was mostly about volume. That if Cadillac sold as many cars as Chevrolet they'd only sell for about a hundred dollars more.

Barry

[ZodWallop]

Originally Posted by Jeff2

I won't offer prognostication, but I'll tell you what I want: one really nice book. I don't think e-readers per se have much of a future. As others have pointed out, tablets offer more utility in (nearly) the same form factor. What I'd prefer to see is a narrowing -- and eventual closing -- of the gap between e-readers and the technology of books.

If I could will such a device into existence it would be a relatively small volume, leather-bound, of perhaps a hundred pages (size and materials could be customized). But these would be truly dynamic pages -- the look and feel of paper with all the capabilities of e-ink. All the libraries of the world in a single, compact volume.

As I flip pages, the book dynamically keeps pace -- when I get to the end of the hundred pages I can go back to page one and continue reading. Or if I prefer the feel of balance in my hands (not to mention the feeling of being in the middle of a good book), I can swipe to change the page without actually flipping. With a stylus or a finger, I can highlight, scribble notes in the margin, or even open an inline text editor with dictation and handwriting recognition features. I can also 'freeze' content on pages or groups of pages, then flip back and forth between the two. This would be especially useful for researchers or anyone who wants to compare passages, end notes, etc.

I could go on, but this is the point: the future of e-readers (at least in my fantasies) lies not in merging them into tablets, but in making them look, feel, and behave like books.

I wouldn't care for a device like that at all. It feels like the skeuomorphism early mobile OSes had that seems so quaint now. Part of the appeal of e-readers is that they are thinner and lighter than most books.

Also, if you have pages on top of pages and you try to swipe, won't the page just turn like it does in a paper book?

You could just get a nice leather cover for your current reader and be halfway there. The official Kobo cover for the original Aura gave the device the feel of a small hard backed leather bound book.

[Sirtel]

Originally Posted by ZodWallop

I wouldn't care for a device like that at all.

Me neither. I don't like to read paper books anymore and I would not want my e-reader to be like them. Paper books are much clumsier and more uncomfortable to hold than my Kindles. As to weight, over 200-250g is too heavy for me to hold in one hand for longer than 10-20 minutes nowadays. So any device heavier than that would be out, at least for reading novels. That goes for tablets and for most paper books.

[barryem]

Originally Posted by GlenBarrington

Which makes me wonder, is the Kindle unfortunate overhead for Amazon? Or is it a valid product line? A lot of time, energy, and other resources go into producing and marketing the typical Kindle device.

Surely, by now, if Amazon just wanted to sell ebooks, the Kindle devices are redundant. Tablets won't kill the Kindles and the other readers. Larger screen smartphones might (My Moto Z2 play is almost good enough fo me to read on for long periods of time). But certainly, tablets will be killed by the smartphone first!

For a long time Amazon said they sold Kindles at cost in order to help them sell books. I haven't heard that from Amazon in recent years although they might just be saying it where I'm not there to hear it.

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that Amazon still keeps margins low on the Paperwhite and the basic Kindle, but makes more on the Voyage and the various Oases. And that the Kindles as a group still have a number of important values for them in addition to whatever profit they might be making on them.

First, the Kindle is well known and Kindle has almost become a generic term for ereader and that makes Amazon look good. It's probably not one of their bigger financial successes although it probably is a success that way too, but it's certainly a major publicity miracle. This is probably enough reason for Amazon to keep the Kindle line going even if there weren't any other reasons.

Second, the Kindle probably does help them sell a lot of books. it may not be their biggest spur to ebook sales but I suspect it's still an important source. If they quit making Kindles I bet we'd see a big rise in Nook sales and Kobos would start selling at Walmart or Target.

Third, they've pretty well perfected it. They've done most of the research they have to do and now all they have to do is just keep it from looking like old tech. Probably that isn't cheap but it's probably very cheap in comparison with what they spent getting here.

I'd be pretty surprised if Amazon stopped improving the Kindle in the foreseeable future. You never know, of course. If any company is likely to surprise you they're the one. I suspect the Kindle will keep right on improving, but not at the rate phones are improving. Companies compete with each other to sell phones. Ereaders are about selling books, not devices, so they're not really competing that much and competition is what brings big improvements.

Barry

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by barryem

I think I read that Samsung sells more of their flagship phones than Iphone does so they'd have good volume discounts as well.

I remember seeing a TV interview with a General Motors executive, possibly the CEO or some such, about 20 or 30 years ago where he was asked why Cadillacs are so expensive and he said it was mostly about volume. That if Cadillac sold as many cars as Chevrolet they'd only sell for about a hundred dollars more.

Barry

Hey Barry, I know you are several years older than me so I want to ask when you were a kid did you ever think we would have instant knowledge like can you drive a car barefoot or be able to communicate instantly across the world in real time without paying 3 arms and 4 legs in long distance fees?

[AnotherCat]

Originally Posted by Alohamora

...If the tablets have already killed large format readers, as at least one person said up-thread, I think the same will happen with small format readers in the next 10 years.

I think you are correct, maybe not killed but relegated into a very small niche market (as opposed to the larger niche market they are now in). This is my take on it.

I started reading on PDAs way back so on small LCD displays. When E Ink progressed a few generations I moved to E Ink, but was never happy with the inferior displays and remain so when reviewing current readers.

I think the young generation, also brought up with their noses in LCD or AMOLED phones (including large format ones), will be much the same and regard E Ink as inferior and not be coerced into E Ink by the misinformation (both technically incorrect and user management) promulgated by some about it.

As just one example, when people claim that LCD shines light into their eyes they are displaying a limitation of knowledge. Light reflected from displays such as E Ink is diffused, all LCD tablet displays also have diffused displays so both emit diffused light, neither "shines" light. Such people also seem to be unaware of, or incapable of setting up a tablet's display for reading despite the better reading applications providing effectively infinite control of background and text color, often background textures as well, superior greyscale, brightness (usually by a simple swipe gesture) and provide contrast orders of magnitude superior to E Ink.

I can set up a tablet's display so that its mimicking of black text on "white" paper is more realistic than that of a modern E Ink reader. That is if that is what is wanted, reading apps with their infinite control allows personal flexibility; for myself I prefer a slightly grey or "aged paper" tinted background.

So, for reasons such as their recognizing the above and not being exposed to received misinformation, I suspect those now being brought up with LCD and AMOLED devices as their everyday (every minute? ) companions are not going to be easily swayed into moving to inferior displays whose claimed advantages are meaningless to them (as they proved to be for me, me being much older but being similarly brought up with LCD displays on PDAs).

[arjaybe]

Originally Posted by Braid

One of the things I love about e-readers is that they do not provide me with the option of conveniently checking my emails and various forums and other internet distractions.

So in that regard, when e-readers 'catch up' with tablets, I will find them less attractive devices.

Yes to this!