Borders shares dive on cashflow concern

[leebase]

I'm not sure it's in the publishers best interest dot Borders to go out of business. If they give Amazon and B&N such better terms that Borders can't compete, how does that help the publishers?

Lee

[barium]

Interesting, relevant article here: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70404820110105

Notes that publishers need brick and mortar bookstores to market their books; that they prefer selling to traditional bookstores (rather than superstores like Walmart and Amazon) because those bookstores have relatively little leverage when negotiating pricing with publishers (their futures depend exclusively on continued book sales)

[Connallmac]

Originally Posted by tubemonkey

From the article:



Why? They're not under any obligation to do so. They can play favorites if they like and offer better terms.

Don't like it? Take your business elsewhere.

Just goes to show you the nature of many large corporations in the US, they want "free markets" and no government interference in their business, until such time as it favors them. Then they are usually all to happy to have the government but in on their behalf.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by leebase

I'm not sure it's in the publishers best interest dot Borders to go out of business. If they give Amazon and B&N such better terms that Borders can't compete, how does that help the publishers?

Lee

Sounds stupid, right?
Yet for the past 30-plus years that is *exactly* what the publishers have done: it's called "volume discounts". The higher the volume of books you buy from them, the better the terms they'd give.
That is how the chain and mall bookstores killed the independents.
That is how the megastores killed and absorbed the chains.
That is how WalMart and Target and online have been killing the superstores.
The publishers have been (knowingly or not) pursuing a policy of channel consolidation for 30-plus years and it is only now, at the end game, that they are even *starting* to smell the coffee.

It clearly is no more in the publishers' interest to kill Borders than it was for them to help kill the small corner bookstores and newstands. But the publishers aren't exactly run by rational, thoughtful, long-view people and they haven't been for decades. Otherwise they woulldn't have outsourced most of the added-value parts of the book-publishing supply chain and stuck themselves with the most easily dispensable role.

The current argument, however, is the opposite: Borders wants the publishers to give them *better* terms than B&N and B&N says that if they give sinking-ship Borders better terms than they get, they'll start to take on water and then the publishers will have *two* sinking ships to worry about.

Note, I'm not saying it's true; merely that that's B&N's position.
And that it is in B&N's best interests to be the last superstore chain standing. They *need* Borders to go away ASAP; the remaining B&M business just "ain't big enough" for both chains.

[queentess]

Originally Posted by frquixote

Rats! Picked BETA over VHS, IBM OS/2 over MS Windows, HD-DVD over Blueray, Palm OS over all the others, and epub over Amazon. Got any technologies you'd like to see killed off??

As I understand it, at least 3 of those are the "superior" technology: BETA, HD-DVD and ePub. Not sure about the others. ePub isn't in danger of going anywhere though, so you're safe

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by queentess

As I understand it, at least 3 of those are the "superior" technology: BETA, HD-DVD and ePub. Not sure about the others. ePub isn't in danger of going anywhere though, so you're safe

Nope.
ePub isn't going anywhere soon.
Neither is mobi.
Still...

Beta had better lab specs but shorter playing time and, when it mattered, was Sony-exclusive while VHS was always multi-vendor, cheaper to buy into, and supported two hours of recording, enough for two TV episodes or one TV movie.

HD-DVD was cheaper to manufacture, players were also cheaper, and didn't need a staff of Java programmers to Code extras. Except for the cheaper players, none of the other advantages mattered to consumers or, worse, the studios. Plus Sony's Columbia and FOX were *never* going to support HD-DVD because of the mandatory Digital copy. In the end, Kingmaker Time Warner fliped a coin and the industry lost two years of development and revenues, hastening the arrival of online digital video.

ePub? It's nominal advantages, like HD-DVD's, don't seem to resonate with buyers in the recreational reading market that is the bulk of the ebook business today. "A difference that makes no difference is no difference."
Pundits may harp all they want on the specsheets but consumers seem to care about the content that shows up onscreen, about the convenience of getting said content, and the price. None of which are dependent on the plumbing in the file format. It's early in the game to compare either ePub or Mobi to Beta or even HD-DVD because its a different business and a different era.

If *I* had to bet, I'd bet the final answer will be "none of the above" but that answer is a long ways coming. As in next decade, most likely.

Nonetheless it is pretty much a myth that markets fail and "superior" techs lose; markets never fail. Pundits simply fail to read the markets properly. Two very different things. Markets are all about emergent effects and mass action and they therefore always choose what matters to the masses no what matters to pundits.

Candidates for the island of near-miss techs, however, are Blackberry, Symbian, iOS, Maemo, WebOS, Windows Phone, and even Android. (Did I miss any?) Pretty soon all the debates about gadget OSes are going to be as quaint as the debates about Commodore vs Atari in the days of the home computer wars.

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Sounds stupid, right?

Not really. In fact, it's routine in retail and other businesses.

It costs less to manage one big retailer than to manage 100,000 indie retailers. That is why many industries have distributors; e.g. Baker & Taylor purchases a large volume of a title at a discount and resells it at a higher cost to numerous bookstores.

Originally Posted by fjtorres

That is how the chain and mall bookstores killed the independents.

That's a somewhat incomplete view.

Larger stores can exploit better economies of scale. A larger store will have slightly lower costs, more industry clout, more capital, better and cheaper credit, a regional or national presence, standardized graphics.... It all adds up.

Originally Posted by fjtorres

The publishers have been (knowingly or not) pursuing a policy of channel consolidation for 30-plus years and it is only now, at the end game, that they are even *starting* to smell the coffee.

Some but not all publishers are ramping up, and generally speaking I believe the industry knows what's going on. That's what Publisher's Weekly is for.

However, not all publishers are doing it, and it's not necessarily a death knell for the entire industry. Borders is on the ropes for reasons unrelated to volume discounts. I can't say for certain, but I'd guess that they are in trouble due to the usual issues -- they expanded too rapidly, incurred too much debt, ownership changed too many times and so forth.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Borders is on the ropes for reasons unrelated to volume discounts. I can't say for certain, but I'd guess that they are in trouble due to the usual issues -- they expanded too rapidly, incurred too much debt, ownership changed too many times and so forth.

I'd bet a big cause of their problems is their choice of locations for their newer stores; both they and B&N have been pursuing a confrontational basing strategy of targetting each other's pre-existing locations while ignoring un-served locations. Some (densely populated) parts of the country you have to drive for an hour or more to find a Borders or B&N while others have multiple pairings in the region, each a block or so away from the other.

They've been trying to strangle each other for years.
And they're *both* succeeding.
Only question now is which one passes out first and it looks to be Borders.

And the price for surviving the suicidal death match?
Hanging around on life support for the transition of print books to a niche business best served by online sales.

[fjtorres]

Conversely, B&N's shares are zooming.
The're already at the $16 mark that was the proposed target of the fabled Buyout by Borders.
From Reuters: Credit Suisse upgrades B&N stock on Borders woes.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN...6:b40756018:z0

They expect B&N sales to improve by 18% of Borders sales (About US$400 million) if Borders starts closing stores. (BTW, note that a whopping 70% of their stores overlap.)

I'm not exactly thrilled to see Borders on the verge but they sure dug a monster of a hole for themselves.

As of Oct they owed publishers $440 million but had only $23 million on hand.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN...5:b40756136:z0

And that was before the recent audit devalued their assets by an unspecified amount.

The publishers do need the extra channel capacity that Borders offers them (as leverage against the dept stores and online sellers) but if B&N demands equal terms they'll have to choose between letting Borders die, or bleeding themselves to keep both chains open.

[EowynCarter]

I'm anoyed with all that.
Borders sell books to sony. And the sony shop is the only one I know off that
a ) have the agency books
b ) Have lenient geo-restrictions.

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by EowynCarter

I'm anoyed with all that.
Borders sell books to sony. And the sony shop is the only one I know off that
a ) have the agency books
b ) Have lenient geo-restrictions.

Geo-restrictions don't have anything to do with the store; they come from the publisher (specifically, what rights the publisher has in the book).

[GA Russell]

Originally Posted by barium

Interesting, relevant article here: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70404820110105

Notes that publishers need brick and mortar bookstores to market their books; that they prefer selling to traditional bookstores (rather than superstores like Walmart and Amazon) because those bookstores have relatively little leverage when negotiating pricing with publishers (their futures depend exclusively on continued book sales)

I found interesting the prediction that fewer books would be sold if Borders closes.

"It would have a significant, concrete and immediate impact on sales,” said one publishing executive who requested anonymity as the person’s business relationship with Borders is confidential. “We would just sell fewer books period.” ...

Traditional book outlets such as Barnes & Noble and Borders account for about 49 per cent of book sales in the U.S.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1858296/

[dallas]

Originally Posted by frquixote

Got a very large Borders gift card for Christmas. Fortunately, I ALSO have/had a VERY big ebook wish list. Just need to buy a couple more books and it will be all used up.

Rats! Picked BETA over VHS, IBM OS/2 over MS Windows, HD-DVD over Blueray, Palm OS over all the others, and epub over Amazon. Got any technologies you'd like to see killed off??

Still have a couple of OS/2 machines at work, you're job isn't done

Originally Posted by barium

Interesting, relevant article here: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70404820110105

Notes that publishers need brick and mortar bookstores to market their books; that they prefer selling to traditional bookstores (rather than superstores like Walmart and Amazon) because those bookstores have relatively little leverage when negotiating pricing with publishers (their futures depend exclusively on continued book sales)

Originally Posted by GA Russell

I found interesting the prediction that fewer books would be sold if Borders closes.

"It would have a significant, concrete and immediate impact on sales,” said one publishing executive who requested anonymity as the person’s business relationship with Borders is confidential. “We would just sell fewer books period.” ...

Traditional book outlets such as Barnes & Noble and Borders account for about 49 per cent of book sales in the U.S.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1858296/

I smell bailout.

[EowynCarter]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

Geo-restrictions don't have anything to do with the store; they come from the publisher (specifically, what rights the publisher has in the book).

Quite a few store, instead of managing books by book, totally block access. And the few that don't fully block, you can be sure the book you want is among the geo-restricted one.
I can hardly buy books in English without lying about where I live. This is extremely annoying.

[CleverClothe]

Originally Posted by dallas

I smell bailout.

Borders doesn't have enough money to bribe politicians.