Pricewaterhouse Coopers worldwide ebook projection (from 2009 to 2016)

[Top100EbooksRank]

http://paidcontent.org/2012/06/12/wh...-like-by-2016/

New data from Pricewaterhouse Coopers’ Global Entertainment and Media Outlook projects that e-books will make up 50 percent of the U.S. trade book market by 2016.

By 2016, PwC expects, “e-books will account for half of total spending on consumer books” in the U.S. and the total U.S. consumer book market (print + digital) will be worth $21 billion, up from $19.5 billion in 2011.

North America projection

2009: $500 mil
2010: $1,200 mil
2011: $2,696 mil ------out of $19.5 billion book market (print+ digital)
2012: $4,326 mil
2013: $5,992 mil
2014: $7,653 mil
2015: $9,324 mil
2016; $10,905 mil------out of $21 billion book market (print + digital)



The link also has a chart that show world-wide trend (can't link to it because it's not an image). Worth seeing.

[SteveEisenberg]

Looking at the graph, they basically projected current trends, and figured a little more for Europe, perhaps on the grounds its economies have been doing a bit worse than the rest of the world lately.

I can't believe that working for a big accounting company gives you some kind of special fortune-telling ability beyond that of anyone else who is watching these trends.

[Fbone]

The figure for 2011 ($2.696 billion) is interesting. The AAP reported ebook sales of about $970 million. We have a $1.7 billion difference. I don't believe Canada and Mexico account for it. So that leaves small and self-publishers. Mark Coker said Smashwords had $6 million in sales last year. No one else releases figures but I'd be surprised if they add up to more than $100 million.

How can they project to 2016 when last year numbers are questionable?

[Top100EbooksRank]

Originally Posted by Fbone

The figure for 2011 ($2.696 billion) is interesting. The AAP reported ebook sales of about $970 million. We have a $1.7 billion difference. I don't believe Canada and Mexico account for it. So that leaves small and self-publishers. Mark Coker said Smashwords had $6 million in sales last year. No one else releases figures but I'd be surprised if they add up to more than $100 million.

How can they project to 2016 when last year numbers are questionable?

What's the total market share of AAP publishers?

The total market for print+ digital was $19.5 billion in 2011.




Found some data that we could use to estimate AAP market share in the $19.5 billion market.

http://www.publishers.org/press/62/

Total Trade

Total Overall: $503.5M in Jan 2012; $396.0M in Jan 2011; +27.1% increase

2011 Jan: $396 x 12 months = $4.75 billion a year
2012 Jan: $503 mil x 12 months = $6 billion a year.

Let's be conservative and up that $4.75 -$6 bil figure to $7-8 billion a year. (more books are sold in the 4th quarter and so forth).


AAP: $7-8 billion a year
North America print + digital book: $19.5 billion a year

[Top100EbooksRank]

Pricewaterhouse Coopers is a multi billion dollar accounting company. A lot of businesses rely on them for their consultant expertise. I doubt they would be off so much when it come to "PAST" data:

2009: $500 mil
2010: $1,200 mil
2011: $2,696 mil ------out of $19.5 billion book market (print+ digital)





I did a quick growth rate projection from their data:

2009: $500 mil
2010: $1,200 mil (140% growth rate)
2011: $2,696 mil (125% growth rate)
2012: $4,326 mil (60% growth rate projection)
2013: $5,992 mil (39% growth rate projection)
2014: $7,653 mil (28% growth rate projection)
2015: $9,324 mil (22% growth rate projection)
2016; $10,905 mil (17% growth rate projection)

[Rob Lister]

It's hard to know what to think without the actual PwC article. I've used their analysis in the past and it is always well done, with all assumptions and doubts clearly laid out; they're not boosters. So I guess I'm kinda given to trust their projections.

Looking at the charts, I'm a little surprised at how flat Western Europe has been.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Rob Lister

Looking at the charts, I'm a little surprised at how flat Western Europe has been.

They have a chicken-and-egg problem; the market is fragmented and each fragment has limited title availability--some regions make do with thousands of ebook titles which pretty much limits reader penetration to hobbyists and darknet "customers".
Not much of a volume business in those areas until they get the ebook catalogs larger. It'll take time, though...

[Fbone]

Originally Posted by Rob Lister

It's hard to know what to think without the actual PwC article. I've used their analysis in the past and it is always well done, with all assumptions and doubts clearly laid out; they're not boosters. So I guess I'm kinda given to trust their projections.

Looking at the charts, I'm a little surprised at how flat Western Europe has been.

Yes, I would have liked to know how they reached 2011 numbers. From B&N's annual report today we know that it's not from them even with 27% of the market.

[Top100EbooksRank]

Another way to figure the ebook marketshare is from Nook digital content data.

http://www.digitalbookworld.com/2012...ontent-up-119/

Digital content sales on the Nook were $483 million for the year

What is the marketshare of the Nook?

20% market share? = $483 mil x 5 = $2415 mil
25% market share? = $483 mil x 4 = $1932 mil

PWC # is for North America, not just USA.

2011: $2,696 mil looks about right when it is data for USA + Canada + Mexico

[taming]

Originally Posted by SteveEisenberg

I can't believe that working for a big accounting company gives you some kind of special fortune-telling ability beyond that of anyone else who is watching these trends.

We're not talking bean counters here. There is a huge specialty area in accounting that is all about this kind of knowledge.

[Fbone]

Originally Posted by Top100EbooksRank

Another way to figure the ebook marketshare is from Nook digital content data.

http://www.digitalbookworld.com/2012...ontent-up-119/



What is the marketshare of the Nook?

20% market share? = $483 mil x 5 = $2415 mil
25% market share? = $483 mil x 4 = $1932 mil

PWC # is for North America, not just USA.

2011: $2,696 mil looks about right when it is data for USA + Canada + Mexico

The $483 million Nook sales includes newspapers, magazines and apps which PWC estimates may not contain and AAP figures certainly do not.

At B&N's estimated 27% market share (their figure) we come to $1788 mil minus newstand and apps. Still more than $900 mil less than than PWC.

I just mentioned it would be interesting how they reached their numbers. It could simply be Nook's market share is less than what the industry claims it to be. Or there is a publisher(s) with high revenues that aren't part of the AAP such as in business or educational field.

[Quexos]

Funny cause I just heard a couple days ago on the radio how ebooks just sold slightly more than print books in North America on the first trimester 2012 but now according to PWHC this wouldn't happen until sometime around 2016
I think figures and projections should be taken with a lot of caution no matter what the source of the data is.

[Barcey]

Originally Posted by Quexos

Funny cause I just heard a couple days ago on the radio how ebooks just sold slightly more than print books in North America on the first trimester 2012 but now according to PWHC this wouldn't happen until sometime around 2016
I think figures and projections should be taken with a lot of caution no matter what the source of the data is.

The news a couple days ago was that the Association of American Publishers (AAP) reported that ebooks had accounted for $282.3 million in sales for the 1st quarter of 2012 which for the first time was more then hardcover sales of $229.6 million. Paperback sales were still higher at $299.8 million. It will take a while until ebooks account for 50% of all revenue as PwC is projecting.

[Quexos]

Oh I see. Thanks for clearing that up.
And personally I don't want to see print books disappear. They have been around for centuries and even if I hope for all books to be available as e-books, there is something nice about walking around a bookshop and spend some time looking around the shelves and sometimes finding a nice piece. Even if it means in the end to actually get it the electronic way.

Originally Posted by Barcey

The news a couple days ago was that the Association of American Publishers (AAP) reported that ebooks had accounted for $282.3 million in sales for the 1st quarter of 2012 which for the first time was more then hardcover sales of $229.6 million. Paperback sales were still higher at $299.8 million. It will take a while until ebooks account for 50% of all revenue as PwC is projecting.

[markbot]

Originally Posted by Top100EbooksRank

http://paidcontent.org/2012/06/12/wh...-like-by-2016/



North America projection

2009: $500 mil
2010: $1,200 mil
2011: $2,696 mil ------out of $19.5 billion book market (print+ digital)
2012: $4,326 mil
2013: $5,992 mil
2014: $7,653 mil
2015: $9,324 mil
2016; $10,905 mil------out of $21 billion book market (print + digital)



The link also has a chart that show world-wide trend (can't link to it because it's not an image). Worth seeing.

I wouldn't read into this too much....their forecast methodology is to take a ruler and draw a straight line from the previous 2 points....basically.