Question for math-savvy re: ebooks %age

J. Strnad · 10-31-2010, 03:20 PM

Ebooks have enjoyed a popularity spike, going from 3% of sales in 2009 to 9% so far in 2010. If we go back to 2007, the curve is pretty alarming (for traditional booksellers): .6% in 2007; 1.2% in 2008, 3.3% in 2009, 9% now. (Citation.)

Any traditional publisher/bookseller might look on this curve in a panic and extrapolate that, at this rate of growth, paper books will die sometime in 2012 as ebooks take over 100% of the market.

Of course, this is nonsense. We will have certain paper books probably forever, at least through the lifetimes of those living today.

Anyway, what I'm wondering is, how do you know when to start rounding off this curve, and how it might plateau?

Is there any predictive math that might guide us?

Blue Tyson · 10-31-2010, 07:04 PM

Multivariate time series analysis for one, complicated. You'd have to come up with factors for technology changes, people who will never switch/buy, probability of massive die-off of dead tree purveyors - and whether those are changing significantly.

SensualPoet · 10-31-2010, 07:53 PM

I believe it's more an additive thing than a hockey stick. It's credible to believe 50% of Amazon book sales will be ebooks can be reached in 2012 ... elsewhere, not yet ... but that's on track too. And there will also be fewer dedicated places to buy books in 2012 and 2015 ... but the fall off to 0% of physical books in the next 10 years ... doesn't sound likely.

L.J. Sellers · 10-31-2010, 08:23 PM

I don't think math equations can accurately predict market trends long term. There are too many unknown forces that can come into play. For me personally, my e-books are outselling my print books a hundred to one. So I no longer even consider bookstores in my marketing plans.
L.J.
The Sex Club: now $.99

10-31-2010, 03:20 PM	#1
J. Strnad Guru Posts: 915 Karma: 3537194 Join Date: Feb 2009 Device: Kobo, Kindle 3, Paperwhite	Question for math-savvy re: ebooks %age Ebooks have enjoyed a popularity spike, going from 3% of sales in 2009 to 9% so far in 2010. If we go back to 2007, the curve is pretty alarming (for traditional booksellers): .6% in 2007; 1.2% in 2008, 3.3% in 2009, 9% now. (Citation.) Any traditional publisher/bookseller might look on this curve in a panic and extrapolate that, at this rate of growth, paper books will die sometime in 2012 as ebooks take over 100% of the market. Of course, this is nonsense. We will have certain paper books probably forever, at least through the lifetimes of those living today. Anyway, what I'm wondering is, how do you know when to start rounding off this curve, and how it might plateau? Is there any predictive math that might guide us?

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10-31-2010, 07:04 PM	#2
Blue Tyson Blue Captain Posts: 1,595 Karma: 5000236 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Australia Device: Kindle Keyboard 3G,Huawei Ideos X3,Kobo Mini	Multivariate time series analysis for one, complicated. You'd have to come up with factors for technology changes, people who will never switch/buy, probability of massive die-off of dead tree purveyors - and whether those are changing significantly.

10-31-2010, 07:53 PM	#3
SensualPoet Wizard Posts: 2,302 Karma: 2607151 Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Toronto Device: Kobo Aura HD, Kindle Paperwhite, Asus ZenPad 3, Kobo Glo	I believe it's more an additive thing than a hockey stick. It's credible to believe 50% of Amazon book sales will be ebooks can be reached in 2012 ... elsewhere, not yet ... but that's on track too. And there will also be fewer dedicated places to buy books in 2012 and 2015 ... but the fall off to 0% of physical books in the next 10 years ... doesn't sound likely.

10-31-2010, 08:23 PM	#4
L.J. Sellers Novelist Posts: 287 Karma: 387979 Join Date: May 2010 Location: Eugene, Oregon Device: Kindle	I don't think math equations can accurately predict market trends long term. There are too many unknown forces that can come into play. For me personally, my e-books are outselling my print books a hundred to one. So I no longer even consider bookstores in my marketing plans. L.J. The Sex Club: now $.99

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