Classic How long do we have to put up with the naysayers and cutthroats?

[chainring]

Originally Posted by Pie

Yes, my predictions are based upon my experience and from following the development of eReaders over the course of years. I didn't do exhaustive research, but I took what I knew and made a prediction.

Sooo, again, you're making a prediction of the demise of these products, but sitting on the sidelines?

Originally Posted by Pie

I don't see why it is unreasonable to predict that a new product will come out that will make the Kindle and Nook obsolete. If it doesn't happen in 2010, it will happen in 2011. That is basic technological advancement these days.

Even a complete technophobe could tell you the current technology will either be replaced, or evolve. How is your "prediction" enlightening in the slightest?

Originally Posted by Pie

It may not be a tablet. That was a guess based upon what I knew might actually be released in 2010. Battery and readability are hurdles, but until a product is released, I'm not going to say that the issues won't be addressed. I also suspect there will be at least one product launch this year that none of us are expecting that will be impressive.

Now you're backpedalling from your blog. First, it was the tablet that will kill the Kindle and nook. Now, it may not be a tablet at all. Come on Nostradomus, I want to know what this thing none of us is expecting that will launch this year.

Originally Posted by Pie

Take a step back. What would you like to see improved in the eReader you have now? Now consider that someone out there has probably already thought of those, and other features, that could significantly raise the bar.

Hmm, not a whole lot. I can read, and do so for days, on my Sony PRS-600. I don't want email. The Internet can take a hike while I'm reading. I don't want it to give me voice prompted, GPS assisted, directions to the loo. I just want to read books, and do so for hours on end without having to look at the battery meter incessantly.

Originally Posted by Pie

I want the prediction to come true. Not to hurt people that have Nooks or Kindles, but to broaden the market buy-in for the products and to provide me with an eReader that I can go to my friends with and say, "You have to get this."

I hate to say it, but your prediction of a tablet killing the current gen eReaders is as likely to become real as me inheriting $1M. From your "You have to get this." line, it seems you're more in love with the technology than with the pure act of reading. Or, perhaps, you're too chicken to just jump in and say "Screw it, I'm gonna do this!".

Originally Posted by Pie

I love to read. I just want a better eReader before I spend the money and I think that a better solution will show up.

If you really do love to read, as you say you do, the current gen readers would suit your purposes just fine. They perform their intended purpose, and that is to put a book in front of you in electronic form. Nothing more, nothing less; just reading.

Originally Posted by Pie

I realize that something will always be missing. My smart phone doesn't do everything I want, but it cleared a threshold and now I have one. Everyone has a different line that lowers over time. Everyone has a different combination of features, cost, and miscellaneous factors that will impact the point that they will adopt a new technology.

Again, more in love with the technology. Get off the fence and commit!

Originally Posted by Pie

The prediction, if you go back to it, doesn't say that the existing products stink. The "I hope you saved your receipt," line was for humor and not meant as an insult to those that already bought one, which includes my mother.

Let's take a look at that prediction.

The Kindle and Nook Will Die: I hope you saved your receipt. Tablets are coming. Why get a Kindle or any other option when a tablet will knock them dead? I think that will be next year’s big gift and people will regret jumping into the digital reader water quite so fast.

Your poorly delivered joke aside, every other line slams both the devices and the owners. How, and in what other universe, could your words not be construed to mean the existing products stink?

Originally Posted by Pie

I just think that something better will come out this year. Simple.

Hooray for that! Something better always comes out, just how long do you wait around until it's "perfect"?

Originally Posted by Pie

If my prediction is correct and something better does come out, how is that bad? Won't it make your life better?

There's nothing bad about something new and better coming out, that's technological evolution and cannot be stopped, nor would I want to. Now, as for making my life better, well, if you need technology to make your life better I'd have to question the quality of your existing life. I could live on the side of a mountain, cutoff from all technology and be just fine. Does some of the current tech make my life easier? Sure. Do I NEED it in order to live? Not at all.

Originally Posted by Pie

Note on features: It isn't about specific features as it is a combination that will make the difference. If they got the copyright stuff figured-out and I could load my existing library I would pay quite a bit for that.

What's your existing library composed of?

Originally Posted by Pie

This is probably my last post on this thread as I'm not sure what else new I could add. Not trying to hurt any "cause".

You didn't expect to post a blog, then come to a site and defend your views without having some lively debate did you? Come on, this is a site for readers and as such will be the type to come back at you with arguments. There is no "cause" here, except for the love of reading and to do so on devices that facilitate reading with portability and ease.


/general rant
And for the love of God, why is the Apple tablet always being brought up as the new eReader? Apple has not confirmed, nor denied, the existence of the product, yet people are wildly speculating about its capabilities. I like Apple products quite a bit, but I have absolutely no delusions it will primarily be a reader, not unless they got an early exclusive on color eInk screens.

[Giddeaon]

I love the tablet arguments that people use against ereaders and just get all weak in the knees whenever I'm told I was dumb for adopting technology early. There are a few arguments that authors of blogs (like the one being contested in this thread) fail to understand:

1 - Early adopters of technology help the market to realize trends, and thereby spend more money on future development and better products. Advising people that they should have held on to their receipts is ignorant and completely devoid of any economic understanding. The money I and many others spent on a Kindle 1 gave Amazon a reason to develop the Kindle 2 and DX. The success of the Sony readers lead Amazon into the market. The success of the Kindles brought B&N into the market with the Nook. All of these products will spark the next wave. When people invest in the existing tech regardless of whether it is "perfect" they help the manufacturers to realize the validity of the product, which will lead to future improvements to the initial designs. Jumping into the existing tech - even when it's not perfect - is an intelligent decision if you support the concepts of the technology and hope that it can be improved upon. Sitting on the fence and pointing fingers at those of us who support the market does nothing but give you weird dimples in your ass.

2 - Not everyone who reads digital content wants an all-in-one device like a tablet. Many - if not a vast majority - of us who purchased ereaders want very simply to read. I don't need gps or internet chat or color video playback or music. I want to read on a device that feels natural, fades into the background, and doesn't distract me from the joys of reading. If a new tablet came out that added 101 additional options, I probably wouldn't buy it because I don't need all of the additional bells and whistles, i.e. I would not support the further development of that kind of reading device because it's no longer about reading. Simply put, that device would NOT suite my needs. If another device comes out that further improves the reading experience, I will gladly put up the money to support those improvements.

The author of the blog states that he reads very often. I congratulate him on that, but I sincerely wonder if he understands the level of eyestrain he will endure if he choses a "tablet" over an e-ink display. Knowing how LCD and OLED screens affect the eyes, I would never even imagine reading as much on those devices as I do on my ereader. I suppose it's great if you have an imaginary apple table that cost you $1000 to read books on and play music and carry files and check email and update facebook and twitterfy your life to the world while youtubing a guy getting kicked in the kiwis.....but while you're recharging the device every night and wondering why your eyesight is failing.....those of us with dedicated ereaders will still be reading. And we'll still be able to do all the other stuff....on our laptops.

[Critteranne]

Originally Posted by chainring

And for the love of God, why is the Apple tablet always being brought up as the new eReader?

Wasn't the tablet PC supposed to be the new eReader in 2001? Some "experts" even predicted that they would be priced under $200, which of course was a joke. I remember reading the reviews in computer magazines and thinking "Oh, well, it sounded like a nice idea at the time..." Sure, there are lighter models now, but they can still weigh a lot, and the price and battery life aren't attractive to me.

[crutnacker]

Originally Posted by Pie

I realize that something will always be missing. My smart phone doesn't do everything I want, but it cleared a threshold and now I have one. Everyone has a different line that lowers over time. Everyone has a different combination of features, cost, and miscellaneous factors that will impact the point that they will adopt a new technology.

The prediction, if you go back to it, doesn't say that the existing products stink. The "I hope you saved your receipt," line was for humor and not meant as an insult to those that already bought one, which includes my mother.

I just think that something better will come out this year. Simple.

If my prediction is correct and something better does come out, how is that bad? Won't it make your life better?

Note on features: It isn't about specific features as it is a combination that will make the difference. If they got the copyright stuff figured-out and I could load my existing library I would pay quite a bit for that.

This is probably my last post on this thread as I'm not sure what else new I could add. Not trying to hurt any "cause".

The current eReaders, to use an rough analogy from the music industry, are either 8-tracks or CDs. Both were improvements on the old, but only one wasn't quickly supplanted. The current crop is young, so I'm predicting that they are akin to the 8-track. A new tech that will be replaced shortly by the equivalent of the cassette tape. I may be wrong and it could be equivalent to the CD and I'll be moving my library there in the future. Time will tell.

-Pie

Of course, it is possible that the current crop of e-readers is vinyl, which had a long shelf life, was one of the first technologies, and still has a niche.

To me, e-readers could be improved, but I think the new and improved versions will still use some form of e-ink AND will be made more cheaply to inspire wide adoption.

I was shocked when I got my Kindle about the clarity of the display and how much I enjoyed reading on it. I have NEVER enjoyed reading anything of great length on a backlit display. The Kindle was completely different.

[stangri]

I'm with Pie on infrastructure not being there, but considering recent developments in other digital media (audio and video) I'm afraid we won't get to the point where you could mail all your physical books and the appropriate titles will be automatically added to your online library, neither do I foresee the swell integration between major online ebooks stores and readers marketed by their competitors. So I don't really see the reason to hold back.

If you like to read there's no better way than the current e-ink readers. While the technology is relatively new (can't remember when the PRS-500 came out in US -- was it 2005 or 2006?) to all markets besides Japan, you already have a splendid selection of screen sizes, features and prices to fit everyones likes.

[Diedrupo]

Originally Posted by stangri

I'm afraid we won't get to the point where you could mail all your physical books and the appropriate titles will be automatically added to your online library

That didn't happen with music, movies, or games, and it won't happen with books. I for one, have no problems re-purchasing many of the books that I already own physically, since it's reasonably cheap and I would only do it for my absolute favorites.

eReaders are pretty much here to stay. Even if they are replaced, they will be replaced by technology that is better and still essentially doing what it's supposed to do - i.e. replace physical books. The digital age is awesome.

I think Pie's "prediction" would incite less rage if he didn't say tablets (specifically the apple tablet) would replace the current generation of eReaders. But if he merely stated the obvious (that the current generation would be replaced by a new generation with cooler features) then people would call him out on it.

[kjk]

Originally Posted by mfaine

These people actually hurt the viability of eReaders in general and may even make for a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I don't really believe this is true.

[astrodad]

Mr. Pie, you haven't adequately stated what it is about current eReaders that you don't like.

[stangri]

Originally Posted by Diedrupo

That didn't happen with music, movies, or games, and it won't happen with books.

Uhm, isn't it what I said just before what you've quoted?

Originally Posted by stangri

... considering recent developments in other digital media (audio and video) I'm afraid we won't ...