Why Ereader Companies Shouldn't be Worried

[rwizard]

I think the iPad is the beginning of the end for the traditional ebood reader. Whenever a convergent device does a "good enough" job at something a dedicated device does at a competitive price, the majority of people gravitate towards those devices. An example of this would be the PDA. Currently HP is the only manufacturer of a dedicated PDA at this time as far as I know (some might argue that the iPod touch could also fit into this catagory). Other than that, all PDA's are cell phones. This is not because they are superior PDA's (hp's business class PDA has a 640x480 screen and slots for SD and CF expansion cards for instance). It also is not because no one sees a reason to have a seporate PDA. It is because the percentage of the market that would want one when they could just have their phone do the job is to small. Dedicated ebok reading devices have always been a niche market and will be more so as more devices come out that will fill majority of users needs for ebook reading and do other things besides.

The current iPad by itself will not displace dedicated ebook readers that are of the 6" and smaller variety; however, it and any clones that may come out will likely decimate the large form factor ebook reader segment in the next couple of years. This is regardless of whether they use screen technology similar to apples or use new screen technologies that are currently trying to come to market. It probably will not be long before at least the iPad clones come out with a 6" device (apple may even come out with this by next year if they think there is enough of a market for it). At that point the 6" or less ebook readers will have something to be worried about.

All of the above being said, I hope some of the new screen technologies get a chance. I say hope because Apple, in an uncharacteristic move for them, has set a relatively low price point for the new device. Consequently, any new device is going to need to be competitive with this price, which makes new tech harder to implement and still turn a profit.

[Teddman]

Said it before, and I'll say it again: As wildly successful as the iPod & iPhone have been (including nano and Touch versions), it hasn't spelled the end of the "traditional mp3 player." You can still buy a Sansa Clip, Creative Zen, Zune, etc.

iPad is not going to spell the end of the tradional e-ink reader either. There will always be a market for dedicated readers with e-paper, even if it's not the market leader.

[yagiz]

Originally Posted by jgaiser

Kids these days...

Apple Newton

Apple Lisa

Forget about the iPad, I'm getting a Newton...

I'm sure it would have been a big hit if only they had called it iNewton...

[rwizard]

Originally Posted by Teddman

Said it before, and I'll say it again: As wildly successful as the iPod & iPhone have been (including nano and Touch versions), it hasn't spelled the end of the "traditional mp3 player." You can still buy a Sansa Clip, Creative Zen, Zune, etc.

iPad is not going to spell the end of the tradional e-ink reader either. There will always be a market for dedicated readers with e-paper, even if it's not the market leader.

The difference is that:

1. MP3 players were not a niche device when convergent devices that play MP3's with possible expectable battery life started becoming available.

2. Many people do not want to run down their phone/PDA battery by playing MP3's, which consume a considerable amount of battery life if you are playing them continuously.

3. MP3 players are not very expensive for the most part and if you are not getting a "smart phone" for other reasons, it is more cost effective to have the separate MP3 player.

If any one of the above were not true (especially the first one) it is very possible that dedicated MP3 players would be nearly nonexistent. The advantages that dedicated ebook readers have on the other hand are:

1. Battery life. (The caveat with this is that, other than a relatively small segment of the market, 10 hours is more than sufficient for one day. Since this is the quoted battery life watching video it should get at least this amount of battery life reading. If the battery life numbers are not accurate, all bets are off, but apple has a history of being accurate with battery life numbers.)

2. Read-ability of the screen without eyestrain/in direct sunlight. (This is not a big factor for many people. Even here on MR there are plenty of people thaat like e-ink for the battery life it provides and do not consider readability an issue on some other screens. As for direct sunlight, people I know with iPhone's say that while it is washed out a bit and not ideal, it is usable in direct sunlight. So, unless you do allot of reading in direct sunlight this may also not be much of a detriment.)

3. Possible price point. (This has not come to fruition yet, but it is possible that dedicated ebook readers could become cheap enough to make them a "competitive" option. If this happens and if ebook readers can stop being a niche market before converged devices take over 90%+ of the possible market then they have a chance. However, I think that the current market for ebook reading devices has probably gotten maybe about 10% of the possible market. This makes it so that, with the current situation, it will not take many converts from dedicated ebook readers to make it so that most e-ink devices have to low a profit margin to be worth while.)

All of the above being said, 1 or 2 dedicated readers will probably still survive much like the PDA (unless they stop being a niche market soon enough, then a wider variety will likely survive and prosper). The question is how long those one or two survive once they have made it that far (For instance, I am not sure how much longer HP will continue to make dedicated PDA's and apples iPod touch is really a converged device, as an MP3 player that also does many other things well, rather than a true PDA in my opinion). Ebook readers may fare a little better than PDA's, but I do not think they will fare much better unless they can get out of being a niche market before other devices take over the market.

Of course, I could be wrong (and I hope I am).

[BlackVoid]

Originally Posted by calvin-c

if you can read ebooks on it then, by pretty much all definitions I've seen, it's an ereader.)

Ah, I did not know that there are 7 eReaders in my house. 2 mobile phones, 2 laptops, 2 PRS-505s, a desktop computer. You can read ebooks on all of them.

LOL.

[m-reader]

The only possibly useful feature that iPad is bringing to the market is that we can expect the prices of dedicated e-book readers to come down a bit. Long live competition!
Having said this, there is no way iPad spells the demise of dedicated e-book readers. Mobile device convergence is something I (and many others I believe) have been hanging out for a long time. Good luck to anyone who wants to go chasing rainbows and jump on bandwagons. Dedicated e-book reader market has never been even in the same league with any other electronic devices - it's much smaller to begin with.
The fight is in the formats game - Amazon, publishers, DRM (or no DRM), etc.
And we can thank the hype over iPad to hopefully bring the market prices down a bit (e.g. Plastic Logic, Skiff & Co.)

[Talldog]

It seems like a common thread running through all of these iPad discussions is that they're going to kill the dedicated ereader market, and especially the large screen devices because a) average people will buy based on hype because they don't know any better, and b) people won't buy a dedicated large screen ereader when they can have a device that does so much more, albeit less competently. I don't buy into either of those assumptions. I DO think that they will siphon enough sales to spur on the competition, and that's a good thing.

[amjbrown]

Originally Posted by m-reader

The only possibly useful feature that iPad is bringing to the market is that we can expect the prices of dedicated e-book readers to come down a bit.

I think the main benefit is that many, many more people will discover the benefits of reading an eBook. And that will make publishers publish more titles electronically and hopefully improve the quality. So if you like books, rather than devices, then I think the iPad has just done us all a huge favour.

amjb

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by amjbrown

I think the main benefit is that many, many more people will discover the benefits of reading an eBook. And that will make publishers publish more titles electronically and hopefully improve the quality. So if you like books, rather than devices, then I think the iPad has just done us all a huge favour.

amjb

Yep, getting devices that can read e-books in the hands of people who don't read enough to ever buy a dedicated reader is going to be a key way to get the ebook market up in size.

Find a way to get that person buying a handful of bestsellers a year to buy those in ebooks instead of at Borders or Target etc.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Talldog

It seems like a common thread running through all of these iPad discussions is that they're going to kill the dedicated ereader market, and especially the large screen devices because a) average people will buy based on hype because they don't know any better, and b) people won't buy a dedicated large screen ereader when they can have a device that does so much more, albeit less competently. I don't buy into either of those assumptions. I DO think that they will siphon enough sales to spur on the competition, and that's a good thing.

I don't think they'll kill portable e-ink devices.

I do think the large screen ones like the Kindle DX, Que etc. are in trouble as those were already very niche devices for people who needed them for PDFs, technical documents, word files (Que anyway) etc. As well as a few people with poor vision etc. who prefer the bigger screen.

I was somewhat interested in the Que, but the laggy and limited markup ability and high price killed it for me. If the iPad is only $500 and does all that other stuff, I figure I should just wait for a tablet with good stylus support so I can get all the other internet, video etc. functions that I'd end up using more than the reading/mark up functions anyway.

But I don't see avid readers deciding to buy this instead of a Kindle or Sony Pocket Edition etc. There's plenty of room for portable e-ink devices.

The large screen ones may survive as well, but tablets like this will definitely take a bite out of their market if they can't get the prices for e-ink screens down to price them at or below the iPad and other tablets as only a select few will pay more for the e-ink experience on a bigger screen and lack of other features IMO.

[HansTWN]

Tablets will some day kill large screen readers. But definitely not this overpriced (forget the 499.-, for a media device you need at least the 64GB version at 799.-!) and underpowered (other tablets will be real computers, not just PDAs) gadget isn't it. I am waiting for a tablet that is more powerful than my current computer and a screen that isn't just optimized for watching movies. It will be 2 years or so.

[m-reader]

Originally Posted by yagiz

Forget about the iPad, I'm getting a Newton...

I have one already! I had a "flash forward" about 5 years ago and bought one on eBay . It's an awesome piece of engineering ...

[dragonbone]

Originally Posted by ac4lt

I think the kindle dx, que, skiff and other large format readers do have reason to worry. For the price of the kindle dx you can now buy a device that is far more functional. Yes, you give up the e-ink advantages, but you also give up the e-ink disadvantages.

I doubt iPad will have much impact on the small format reader market but I think it will draw many people who might have gone to a kindle dx or other competing reader unless the price point goes down for the big e-ink devices, particularly for the que.

I suspect most people will find a 10 hour battery good enough for practical use if the claim is true in the real world. The only real disadvantage is lack of daylight readability but the tradeoff in content versatility may draw a lot of people.

Weight, might be an issue for extended reading. A 1.5 pound reader might be tiring for extended reading though kindle dx is only 5 ounces lighter.

Would I get one??? I'm not sure.

I want a large format reader. It would be fantastic photo presentation device. It would be a great way to take notes when doing genealogy research. But, I'm going to have to hold one in my hands and play with it to see.

But for many people, particularly those not already owning a dedicated e-reader, I think it will be a hit.

I am only going to mention the Kindle and the iPad, since those are the only 2 readers so far, that will truly be 'international'.
I think it will be a big hit all around the world and change everything regarding mobile ereading.
As an example: In my case, to buy the KindleDXi from Amazon.com, (it cannot be directly ordered though a 'local' Amazon) it will cost about $600! Every third or fourth book I will try to buy - will not 'available to my geographical location'. All the 'free' books for USA citizens, cost $2 to the international community.
If I don't live in Mexico, Japan or Hong Kong, the internet browser will not be available.
Now for the BIG one IMHO:
The iPad is multi-lingual!!! That means people from all over the world can use it straight out of the box.
Every country/language has their own Apps AFAIK, (here in Japan for eg., there seem to be thousands of Japanese Apps in the iTunes store - PLUS all the English ones) and all the new cool built in Apps, like for eg. the calender, photos, iWork , iBooks etc. etc. will work in their OWN language, plus of course all the thousands of Apps already in the iTunes store. I think few English speaking people in America realize the importance of this...
The USA is only one country! The ipad will be released simultaneously worldwide and on a massive scale.
There are many countries that Kindle and other readers aren't shipped to at all. The literate world is moving rapidly towards ereading, not only English speaking Americans... this is the device that will change everything and kids that sniggered about mom & dad's Kindle, will now WANT an iPad!
Kindle's UI is English only, it only reads books. Only reads ENGLISH books natively. End of story.
Just my 2 cents...

[Crowl]

Ereader companies shouldn't be worried, they simply have to adjust to the ipad's existence like they would any other new product and/or technology whether it's through lower prices or more features.

In any case, the majority of the new ereaders recently have been coming from the kind of companies that will also be selling their own tablets, netbooks etc. so they are simply one product in their portfolio.

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by dragonbone

I am only going to mention the Kindle and the iPad, since those are the only 2 readers so far, that will truly be 'international'.
I think it will be a big hit all around the world and change everything regarding mobile ereading.
As an example: In my case, to buy the KindleDXi from Amazon.com, (it cannot be directly ordered though a 'local' Amazon) it will cost about $600! Every third or fourth book I will try to buy - will not 'available to my geographical location'. All the 'free' books for USA citizens, cost $2 to the international community.
If I don't live in Mexico, Japan or Hong Kong, the internet browser will not be available.
Now for the BIG one IMHO:
The iPad is multi-lingual!!! That means people from all over the world can use it straight out of the box.
Every country/language has their own Apps AFAIK, (here in Japan for eg., there seem to be thousands of Japanese Apps in the iTunes store - PLUS all the English ones) and all the new cool built in Apps, like for eg. the calender, photos, iWork , iBooks etc. etc. will work in their OWN language, plus of course all the thousands of Apps already in the iTunes store. I think few English speaking people in America realize the importance of this...
The USA is only one country! The ipad will be released simultaneously worldwide and on a massive scale.
There are many countries that Kindle and other readers aren't shipped to at all. The literate world is moving rapidly towards ereading, not only English speaking Americans... this is the device that will change everything and kids that sniggered about mom & dad's Kindle, will now WANT an iPad!
Kindle's UI is English only, it only reads books. Only reads ENGLISH books natively. End of story.
Just my 2 cents...

You forgot that Itunes' regional restrictions are MUCH WORSE than Amazon's. You cannot buy anything on US Itunes if you are not an American resident and the same thing in Itunes elsewhere costs 50% more. And don't think for a minute that books that are not available for your country on Amazon will be on Itunes! And the Kindle can display other languages, just use PDF.

Of course, the iPad will also be more expensive in your country than in the US. And buy the same ratio as the Kindle. So that 599 USD iPad (forget the 499.- 16GB version, that is a marketing gimmick, not a real option) will be USD 900 for you including all charges.