So what's the verdict?

HarryT · 10-12-2007, 09:23 AM

What's the verdict on the Kindle? Does it actually exist? Is it going to be launched in the foreseeable future?

Your views?

Poll attached.

Nate the great · 10-12-2007, 10:20 AM

I see two possibilities here:

one, Amazon has an absolutely amazing ability to keep a secret;

two, it's not nearly ready for release so they haven't said anything.

I am hoping for the first, but I think the second is more likely. Now, there are four datapoints that suggest that it does exist. They include:

the leaked FCC disassembly,
the leaked manual,
the Les Echoes statement that it would be available on the Kindle on 15 October,
the references to "kindle edition" showing up on Amazon.com.

The first two datapoints are strong evidence that the Kindle existed at that time in that form. That doesn't mean it exist now or looks like that now.

The second two datapoints suggest that something named the Kindle will be released soon.

Note that I don't include the NYTimes article. After all I've learned about journalism in the past month, I don't trust the reliability of that article.

BKeeper · 10-12-2007, 02:36 PM

I'd like to propose another possibility:

"It exists but after leaking it they realized that almost everybody thought the design was not "optimal", so they wisely decided to go back to the drawing board. "

(which is what more companies should do when they realize they have screwed)

or

"it exists but since they modified the design, it's not production ready yet, so on Monday they'll announce the platform and unveil a prototype which will likely ship early next year."

I'd love to be wrong.

totally unrelated matter: yes, I confess I'm an iLiad user.

Nate the great · 10-12-2007, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BKeeper

I'd like to propose another possibility:

"It exists but after leaking it they realized that almost everybody thought the design was not "optimal", so they wisely decided to go back to the drawing board. "

(which is what more companies should do when they realize they have screwed)

or

"it exists but since they modified the design, it's not production ready yet, so on Monday they'll announce the platform and unveil a prototype which will likely ship early next year."

I'd love to be wrong.

totally unrelated matter: yes, I confess I'm an iLiad user.

This is an excellent possibility that I hope is wrong. I want the Kindle sooner, not later.

Oh, Why Not? · 10-12-2007, 05:38 PM

Alas, I think the Kindle has burst into flames and we only taste the ashes now.

NatCh · 10-12-2007, 05:41 PM

Nicely turned phrase there, Oh, Why Not?

Oh, Why Not? · 10-12-2007, 07:29 PM

Thank you NatCh. Except now I have a blister on my tongue and can only have ice cream for dinner.

JSWolf · 10-12-2007, 07:44 PM

The Kindle has been used for Kindling and is now no longer.

CommanderROR · 10-13-2007, 09:09 AM

I think this whole things is very strange indeed.
I'd say the "Kindle Editions" popping up on Amazon.com were perhaps there to test the waters for ebook pricing, however, the Kindle FCC thing and the Newspaper-article don't fit in that category in my opinion...I'm looking forward to seeing what might or might not happen on the 15th...

HarryT · 10-13-2007, 09:59 AM

My prediction is that absolutely nothing is going to happen.

yvanleterrible · 10-13-2007, 11:19 AM

That could be Harry.

What we know of Kindle was from a stupid governmental compliance rule leak. But when you look at pictures of kindle, there is a lot of work behind this demo, all of it translating to a huge investment. Who knows of Amazon having holds in manufacturing? They couldn't be doing it themselves? I don't believe they would even be involved in R&D. The question is who built it?
As I've said elsewhere, it's easyer to abandon secrecy between R&D and manufacturing. I think they are at this stage now and are pressured to make an announcement. When you are not the manufacturer, you can not shutdown information from leaking. Why? Because if you don't have hold of manufacturing, there are multiple companies you have to deal with. Spring makers, plastics molders, screen suppliers etc. All of whom have to be sworn to secrecy. But that kid sweeping floors and emtying garbage pails in that button manufacturing shop, the one who's about to be laid off because he's always late and who happened to have picked up interesting pictures while emptying pails, well that kid can take to vengeance. When a leak comes it is difficult to save face. Better to come up clean yourself, than to have someone do it for you in an unflattering way with things all wrong.

HarryT · 10-13-2007, 11:54 AM

Sorry - please let me clarify. I have absolutely no doubt at all that there is a Kindle "in the works", and that it will appear on the scene sooner or later. My only doubt is that there's going to be any sort of formal "launch" of it on Monday. It seems relatively clear that some sort of launch at the Frankfurt book fair was indeed planned, but equally clear that, for some reason, it got postponed.

RWood · 10-13-2007, 04:31 PM

I think Amazon is too far down the pipeline to change from its current design (not that that design is what we have seen.) If a 15 Oct launch was planned, the new units are already somewhere -- either in a warehouse or on a boat or perhaps still in customs. Then again, maybe they were made in China and had too much lead in them.

RalphTrickey · 10-13-2007, 09:22 PM

Search for Kindle on Amazon. Two devices show up in electronics even though they have no mention of Kindle on their page.

The Iliad can also be get the Les Echos subscription, BTW.

yvanleterrible · 10-14-2007, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

Sorry - please let me clarify. I have absolutely no doubt at all that there is a Kindle "in the works", and that it will appear on the scene sooner or later. My only doubt is that there's going to be any sort of formal "launch" of it on Monday. It seems relatively clear that some sort of launch at the Frankfurt book fair was indeed planned, but equally clear that, for some reason, it got postponed.

I did get your meaning Harry. What I think we'll get is some kind of 'vaporous' launch date like the three Sony gave us last year with the PRS500. That's the best one can do in their 'shoe type', if I can say, and without losing face.

View Poll Results: What do you think about the Kindle?
Amazon are just "testing the waters" by leaking rumors.	10	15.63%
It exists, and will be unveiled within the next few weeks.	30	46.88%
It exists, but won't be launched for a long time.	13	20.31%
Never mind the poll, just show me the results!	11	17.19%
Voters: 64. You may not vote on this poll

10-12-2007, 09:23 AM	#1
HarryT eBook Enthusiast Posts: 85,544 Karma: 93383043 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis 2, iPad Pro 10.5", iPhone 6	So what's the verdict? What's the verdict on the Kindle? Does it actually exist? Is it going to be launched in the foreseeable future? Your views? Poll attached.

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10-12-2007, 10:20 AM	#2
Nate the great Sir Penguin of Edinburgh Posts: 12,375 Karma: 23555235 Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: DC Metro area Device: Shake a stick plus 1	I see two possibilities here: one, Amazon has an absolutely amazing ability to keep a secret; two, it's not nearly ready for release so they haven't said anything. I am hoping for the first, but I think the second is more likely. Now, there are four datapoints that suggest that it does exist. They include: the leaked FCC disassembly, the leaked manual, the Les Echoes statement that it would be available on the Kindle on 15 October, the references to "kindle edition" showing up on Amazon.com. The first two datapoints are strong evidence that the Kindle existed at that time in that form. That doesn't mean it exist now or looks like that now. The second two datapoints suggest that something named the Kindle will be released soon. Note that I don't include the NYTimes article. After all I've learned about journalism in the past month, I don't trust the reliability of that article.

10-12-2007, 02:36 PM	#3
BKeeper Groupie Posts: 186 Karma: 728 Join Date: Jul 2006 Device: Kindle PW	I'd like to propose another possibility: "It exists but after leaking it they realized that almost everybody thought the design was not "optimal", so they wisely decided to go back to the drawing board. " (which is what more companies should do when they realize they have screwed) or "it exists but since they modified the design, it's not production ready yet, so on Monday they'll announce the platform and unveil a prototype which will likely ship early next year." I'd love to be wrong. totally unrelated matter: yes, I confess I'm an iLiad user.

10-12-2007, 05:38 PM	#5
Oh, Why Not? Groupie Posts: 176 Karma: 13065 Join Date: Aug 2007 Device: Galaxy Note 2; KindleFireHDX	Alas, I think the Kindle has burst into flames and we only taste the ashes now.

10-12-2007, 05:41 PM	#6
NatCh Gizmologist Posts: 11,615 Karma: 929550 Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Republic of Texas Embassy at Jackson, TN Device: Pocketbook Touch HD3	Nicely turned phrase there, Oh, Why Not?

10-12-2007, 07:29 PM	#7
Oh, Why Not? Groupie Posts: 176 Karma: 13065 Join Date: Aug 2007 Device: Galaxy Note 2; KindleFireHDX	Thank you NatCh. Except now I have a blister on my tongue and can only have ice cream for dinner.

10-12-2007, 07:44 PM	#8
JSWolf Resident Curmudgeon Posts: 73,975 Karma: 128903378 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Roslindale, Massachusetts Device: Kobo Libra 2, Kobo Aura H2O, PRS-650, PRS-T1, nook STR, PW3	The Kindle has been used for Kindling and is now no longer.

10-13-2007, 09:09 AM	#9
CommanderROR eink fanatic Posts: 2,022 Karma: 4924 Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Germany Device: STAReBOOK, iRex Iliad, Sony 505, Kindle 2	I think this whole things is very strange indeed. I'd say the "Kindle Editions" popping up on Amazon.com were perhaps there to test the waters for ebook pricing, however, the Kindle FCC thing and the Newspaper-article don't fit in that category in my opinion...I'm looking forward to seeing what might or might not happen on the 15th...

10-13-2007, 09:59 AM	#10
HarryT eBook Enthusiast Posts: 85,544 Karma: 93383043 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis 2, iPad Pro 10.5", iPhone 6	My prediction is that absolutely nothing is going to happen.

10-13-2007, 11:19 AM	#11
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	That could be Harry. What we know of Kindle was from a stupid governmental compliance rule leak. But when you look at pictures of kindle, there is a lot of work behind this demo, all of it translating to a huge investment. Who knows of Amazon having holds in manufacturing? They couldn't be doing it themselves? I don't believe they would even be involved in R&D. The question is who built it? As I've said elsewhere, it's easyer to abandon secrecy between R&D and manufacturing. I think they are at this stage now and are pressured to make an announcement. When you are not the manufacturer, you can not shutdown information from leaking. Why? Because if you don't have hold of manufacturing, there are multiple companies you have to deal with. Spring makers, plastics molders, screen suppliers etc. All of whom have to be sworn to secrecy. But that kid sweeping floors and emtying garbage pails in that button manufacturing shop, the one who's about to be laid off because he's always late and who happened to have picked up interesting pictures while emptying pails, well that kid can take to vengeance. When a leak comes it is difficult to save face. Better to come up clean yourself, than to have someone do it for you in an unflattering way with things all wrong.

10-13-2007, 11:54 AM	#12
HarryT eBook Enthusiast Posts: 85,544 Karma: 93383043 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis 2, iPad Pro 10.5", iPhone 6	Sorry - please let me clarify. I have absolutely no doubt at all that there is a Kindle "in the works", and that it will appear on the scene sooner or later. My only doubt is that there's going to be any sort of formal "launch" of it on Monday. It seems relatively clear that some sort of launch at the Frankfurt book fair was indeed planned, but equally clear that, for some reason, it got postponed.

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10-13-2007, 04:31 PM	#13
RWood Technogeezer Posts: 7,233 Karma: 1601464 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Virginia, USA Device: Sony PRS-500	I think Amazon is too far down the pipeline to change from its current design (not that that design is what we have seen.) If a 15 Oct launch was planned, the new units are already somewhere -- either in a warehouse or on a boat or perhaps still in customs. Then again, maybe they were made in China and had too much lead in them.

10-13-2007, 09:22 PM	#14
RalphTrickey Enthusiast Posts: 44 Karma: 30 Join Date: Sep 2007 Device: Sony	Search for Kindle on Amazon. Two devices show up in electronics even though they have no mention of Kindle on their page. The Iliad can also be get the Les Echos subscription, BTW.