Six technologies endangered by smartphones

[Viseguy]

Or so we're told by this piece in Yahoo! Finance.

According to the article, the six endangered technologies are: digital cameras, video game consoles, iPad/tablet PCs, netbooks, GPS, and -- yup, you guessed it -- e-book readers.

My view: Notwithstanding some "convergence" of these technologies, niche markets will persist for at least some of them. No phone camera is going to replace my digital SLR and its interchangeable lenses anytime soon. I like my netbook, but I'm agnostic about the future of that species. (Probably ephemeral.) I love hacking into my portable GPS to do things like correcting text-to-speech pronunciation, so I hope this one sticks around. (But I wouldn't bet my life on it.)

Dedicated e-book readers? I can't really speak to them as I've never owned or used one. (I have a K3 Wi-Fi on order.) They'll probably be replaced by something, but I find it hard to believe that it'll be a small hand-held device. Not for book-length reading material, anyway.

What do you think?

[oggelbe2007]

Not likely...Converged devices have too many design trade-offs that specialized devices don't require. They force users to lower their expectations in order to cram more functionality into the design. Take the iPad as an example it doesn't perform any of its promised functions very well due to the many design trade-offs.

[Phogg]

digital cameras Small point and click, probably to some extent - just as has happened to a large extent with MP3 players. AS you said DSLR will be around for a long time BUT... DSLR bluetooth or WiMax will likely be on every DSLR camera in 5 years, so they can be remotely controled by a phone or tablet. Today's high end feature is tomorrows mundane feature.

video game consoles consoles for large screen - no smartphones wont get there on graphics power any time soon. PSP and Nintendo DS? Those are toast - Sony has a PSP replacement that is also a phone in the pipeline now.

iPad/tablet PCs, netbooks, I think there will continue to be a bewildering array of all of these, some with wireless internet or phone, and some without.

GPS Like handheld gaming consoles I think this one is toast. I expect GPS on larger phones to be ubiquitous, and I expect in dash GPS to come with your vehicle. If we get decent flexible displays, GPS may move to your steering wheel on top of your airbag.

e-book readers Niche market. But one about the size of the current market. I expect milspec durable e-readers to eventually take over as the medium of choice for technical manuals. prefferably solar powered.

[GreenMonkey]

Not buying it.

iPad/tablet PCs - it barely exists now. But a tiny phone? Not going to happen. The whole point of the ipad is it's just a big ipod touch! This is the opposite! And tablets...these are used for businesses and students. Try taking notes on a smartphone. Hell now that we have Apple to thank for making styluses uncool, that's even farther from likely.

Netbooks - this is just an inexpensive, low power, long battery life small laptop. These aren't going anywhere. I'm sure we'll still see plenty of 10-12" power efficient laptops.

GPS - maybe - but most phone GPS needs expensive data plans or monthly fees. Nokia has the right idea with theirs, though - no data needed - maps preloaded.

e-book readers - not a chance. Reading on a 4" screen with something that gets a few hours of battery life...yeah. Sure. Like smartphones aren't always running out of power already...and they are tiny.

[Lady Fitzgerald]

I'm also not buying it. Even small point and shoots yield better quality photos than cell phone cameras. There is no way a camera phone will ever come even close to what a DSLR or high end point and shoot can do. If nothing else, the optics and the sensors are just too small.

No way anyone can cram the action, detail, and control of a high end gaming console and large monitor into a little phone.

A cell phone cannot compete with the detail that can be viewed on a larger screen tablet. Only so much computing power can be packed into a cell phone. A tablet is capable of much more (note I said capable; there are really good cell phones and really lousy tablets).

Even slow as I am, I can still type faster on a netbook than most kids can on a cell phone. I can also see more detail on a 10" screen than on a cell phone screen. I would like to see them cram the 160GB HDD space in a cell phone that even the bottom end netbooks have.

I can see all cars and trucks having onboard GPS as well as cell phones all having it someday. It can be incorporated into netbooks and laptops. Some cameras also have it onboard and I can see them all having it someday. I can see independent GPS units going away.

Again, phones will not be able to compete with the screen size and memory space of e-book readers. I would never consider trying to read a book on a screen smaller than 6" (heck, I read at home on my 32" TV). For tablets to be of any use to me as an e-book reader, it has to have the same battery life and fit in my purse as easily.

[sabredog]

Nor am I

A camera in a phone will need a very good optical zoom and processing software before they even begin to replace a $150 point and shoot.

I have a 5mp camera in my Omnia but it takes a poor picture compared to a comparable Canon point and shoot.

Nokia tried the phone/gaming console. Called the N-Gage, it was (still is) a poor performer and seller. Cannot see that changing anytime soon.

Netbooks will probably morph into touchscreen enabled tablets with arguably more capabilities than the iPad.

GPS devices will still be around. A specialised and useful device that more and more people are buying. Still, though, more powerful GPS chipsets are included in smart and normal phones as well. Also, the car of the near future will have a GPS included as standard not as an expensive option.

In regard to ebook readers, the same tired arguments apply. The nay sayers simply do not get it do they? Backlit LCD on a small device that acts as a swiss army knife? Nope, not if the battery lasts till the next sneeze. Perhaps carrying a portable fusion generator is the future fashion statement and my Kobo can be relagated to the shed alongside the Walkman.

[Mitchi]

Before saying anything on the technologies that Smartphones will presumably ax, I will say that the battery life of them is currently TERRIBLE. I have to charge my phone nearly every night if I have the internet or GPS turned on. Then again, the Droid Eris isn't exactly known for having good battery life.

Cameras - Digital cameras STILL haven't completely replaced film cams, especially for professional photographers (though yes, some of them do use high end digital cams). While I do like the cam on my phone, it does use up quite a bit of battery power, and the quality just isn't as good as a dedicated camera. Good for on the go stuff and spur of the moment things, not so good for photography work.

Video game consoles - BRB laughing.

Netbooks - Ever try to type or browse the internet for long periods on a smartphone? It's not fun. As for tablet PCs....well, for tablets like ipads, i withold my judgement but for the laptops with touchscreens and styluses? As long as there are digital artists, those will be around.

GPS - Anyone who thinks a smartphone will replace a dedicated GPSr has never met a hardcore geocacher. While yes, a smartphone can work, there's the battery, the software (most of it just isn't up to par), the recievers, the accuracy...so many things. I don't see it happening. Funny enough though, some of the higher end GPSr's are also a camera, or something else, so a straight up GPSr might not make it unless it's extremely cheap.

Ebook readers - While for the general population, smartphones may be good for reading ebooks, they just don't have the battery power to hold up.

Originally Posted by Phogg

PSP and Nintendo DS? Those are toast - Sony has a PSP replacement that is also a phone in the pipeline now.

Sorry but I disagree for multiple reasons. One being that smartphones don't have the processing power to run a lot of bigger games properly (they can't even run emulators right), another being battery life, and third...well, a call interrupting your game time can be downright annoying. As for sony making a handheld that is also a phone...a lot of things these days, while being "also a camera" (cough cough DSi) are starting to show hints of being "also a phone" becoming the new trend.

[Ben Thornton]

I think that there are two problems with this analysis - technology and form-factor. Arguably, the technology issues (like battery life and screen qualities) will be addressed over time, allowing smartphones to take over more functions. But the form-factor issues - size, interface etc. - aren't going away.

The tablet/netbook one seems the craziest to me - the idea that a ~2 inch screen will replace the ~10 inch screen.

I'd also question whether the console is "toast". The form-factor of a console is different - D-pad, buttons etc. Games on a smartphone are not the same. It's difficult to interact with them in an immersive, natural way. Some games manage it (I think Angry Birds' success is due in large part to this), but the traditional genres (shooter, platformer, racing, ...) do not translate well.

[Sweetpea]

digital cameras
I'd never use a phone as primary digital camera. The quality of these things will always be worse than an average camera, simply because the lens is so much smaller.

video game consoles
How would I have to visualize this? Connecting your phone to your tv?

iPad/tablet PCs
The average phone is, what 4"?, big? No way it's going to replace tablets. Or do you think people will want to walk with a 9"-11" device in their pockets in case they need to make a phone call?

netbooks
Same as above

GPS
Now, this one I think will lose some ground against phones. Though, here too, the screensize can be a large disadvantage. I prefer a somewhat larger screen on my GPS systems than the average phone has.

e-book readers
Same as GPS.


Besides that, I prefer different devices for different functions. If my camera breaks, I can still make a phone call, read books and find my way around. The same for the other devices.

Phones already have a lot of these functionalities, and they are handy if you're somewhere where you don't have your dedicated device close by. But replacing them completely? I doubt it...

[Dylrob]

Originally Posted by Mitchi

Sorry but I disagree for multiple reasons. One being that smartphones don't have the processing power to run a lot of bigger games properly (they can't even run emulators right), another being battery life, and third...well, a call interrupting your game time can be downright annoying. As for sony making a handheld that is also a phone...a lot of things these days, while being "also a camera" (cough cough DSi) are starting to show hints of being "also a phone" becoming the new trend.

Another problem smartphones have is control. While their touchscreens may work for certain genres, it's far from an ideal replacement for the standard face and [especially] shoulder buttons that many others are built around.

[FlorenceArt]

This argument has been around for at least 20 years, I'd say. I remember reading in the 1990s how within 5 years the home computer, TV, VCR and game station would all be merged into one multifunction appliance. What has really happened is that each of these appliances can do many of the things the others do... and we still have them all in our homes. Not everybody has them all, of course. But none of these things has disappeared (well, the VCR yes, but it was replaced by another technology, not by a do-it-all device).

Yes, for occasional users and low-end market segment, there is some truth in that, as some have said here already. But the overall trend is not toward consolidation of all functionalities into one device. Quite the opposite in fact.

Right now in my handbag I have a 3G smartphone, an iPod Touch (I know, I know, but I was too cheap to buy the iPhone ), and my Opus. Will this change in years to come? Certainly, but I'm not sure the number of devices will be reduced. I certainly can't see myself using an Opus-sized device as a phone, or reading on my smartphone's tiny screen. I only read newspapers on the iPod, and I could never finish a book on it, though it did come in handy when my e-reader went on the fritz last summer.

Anyway, that "X will replace A, B and C too" idea is something I have never believed, and never seen so far.

[carld]

The only technology phones really endanger is alarm clocks. They'll have some limited impact on other devices, but they're just not good enough to overtake other specialty electronics.

[paulrw]

I think you are missing the point here. Yes, individual devices are better and will remain so, but having a single device that does everything is convenient, and the better that gets the more difficult the cost/convenience justification gets for buying the individual devices. This means that more people will opt to use the smartphone for things they don't do very often and won't buy the dedicated devices, which will erode the market, which pushes up prices, which reduces the market, which......
I have used smartphones for years, and have used them for casual reading. I have switched to an iPhone 4 and the display on that is a joy. Yes the screen is small, but a tap to turn the page is not arduous.I will probably use an ebook reader to take away on holiday, but for casual commuter reading the iPhone is more than sufficient. By the nature of this forum we are all readers and likely to find the cost of an ebook reader acceptable, but if other people don't the market will wither and die.

[carld]

I guess it depends on whether the general public decides that "will do in a pinch" is the same as "good enough." I do use my phone to replace devices I don't have, but it's purely a stop-gap. I don't have a GPS or a digital camera, so the phone does well enough for the rare times I need either. But, if it's something I'm actually interested in the phone is a poor substitute at best.

[Solicitous]

Well this is my view.

Digital Cameras
Most certainly will never be replaced. I don't see there ever becoming a day a professional photographer of hobbyist pulling out their mobile to take snaps of someones wedding. Digital Cameras do one thing and they do it well, they take photos.

Video Consoles
I think will stay. Myself (and others I know) gave up years ago playing the constant hardware upgrade of the PC to play the latest and greatest games. If you see a game for X-console and you own X-console you know it will work. We have 3 consoles and never touched PC gaming since (they all are internet play capable).

GPS
Once again I say no. Some mobile phones have built in GPS, but (a) the size screen on a mobile is smaller than a GPS and harder to use in a car, and (b) here in Australia anyway it is an offence to touch your mobile while driving. No way I'd buy a mobile to use as a GPS.

Essentially end of the day (and I must be the most uninspired techie over gadgets out there) but I strongly believe that moving away from dedicated devices that do one thing and do it well to a one device does all situation is ludicrous. I once had a reliable mobile many years ago, and it had the simple non-colour screen, did sms and calls, nothing else. Never had problems/crashes, worked a dream. Every mobile since has had cameras, games, internet...the list goes on, and have been nothing but trouble, and I still to this day can not comprehend the concept of "rebooting" your mobile.