Ballmer: In 10 years all media will be delivered digitally

Donnageddon · 06-06-2008, 05:43 PM

In a June 5th interview in the Washington Post, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer weighed in on the future of media consumption:

Quote:

In the next 10 years, the whole world of media, communications and advertising are going to be turned upside down -- my opinion.

Here are the premises I have. Number one, there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.

Read more here

I am pretty much already there.

Ervserver · 06-06-2008, 06:46 PM

No paper! thats a BIG prediction though I think there will be far fewer publications in paper form

moz · 06-06-2008, 07:22 PM

Once he has the paperless office thing working properly I'll be prepared to believe he has a plan for intangible media. 33 years and counting for the office...
http://www.businessweek.com/technolo...dStories_ssi_5

Given the enduring popularity of vinyl records I find it hard to believe that analogue enthusiasts will convert to digital for his convenience. I can see hand-illustrated manuscripts continuing to be produced and at the low end of the market, I suspect 'zines and art/poetry books will continue to come out in hard copy. Not to mention painters... but sure, in 10 years all that might have changed. And Mr Ballmer might have gifted the world a bug-free service pack for Windows XP too.

zelda_pinwheel · 06-06-2008, 07:23 PM

much as it pains me to agree with ANYTHING the CEO of M$ says, i admit that i'm nearly there myself, already.

zelda_pinwheel · 06-06-2008, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moz

Once he has the paperless office thing working properly I'll be prepared to believe he has a plan for intangible media. 33 years and counting for the office...
http://www.businessweek.com/technolo...dStories_ssi_5

Given the enduring popularity of vinyl records I find it hard to believe that analogue enthusiasts will convert to digital for his convenience. I can see hand-illustrated manuscripts continuing to be produced and at the low end of the market, I suspect 'zines and art/poetry books will continue to come out in hard copy. Not to mention painters... but sure, in 10 years all that might have changed. And Mr Ballmer might have gifted the world a bug-free service pack for Windows XP too.

now you're just dreaming. or else you're high (what is that you're smoking ?).

but seriously, if we are only talking about things like newspaper and magazines i can see it being possible. i almost never read the news on paper anymore.

vinyl lps and paintings are a different story, however.

Donnageddon · 06-06-2008, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zelda_pinwheel

vinyl lps and paintings are a different story, however.

I had a flirtation with vinyl LPs about 5 years ago. Just a bit of nostalgia I reckon. I mean how does one separate the seed and stems without a gatefold Double LP nowadays?

But it didn't last. LP's require being turned every 20 minutes. I ain't got that kind of patience anymore. And even CDs take up too much space. So I use mp3s now.

Don't have a lot of artwork hanging in my domicile, but I am thinking of getting one of them digital art frames.

pilotbob · 06-06-2008, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moz

And Mr Ballmer might have gifted the world a bug-free service pack for Windows XP too.

Only someone that has never worked on software would think that there could be a thing as bug-free software. A system like Windows has millions of lines of code and works on thousands of different hardware types with third party software and drivers. It is amazing that the thing works at all... but it not only works but it runs 20 year old software for the most part.

Compare that to Apple who has twice orphaned previous hardware and OS lines requiering rewrites for everything. Also, Apple controls 100% of the PC hardware... I don't know why there stuff is as buggy as it is.

BOb

RickyMaveety · 06-07-2008, 06:39 PM

I found a solution that works for me most of the time. It's a nice tablet PC running Windows XP which has OneNote and Adobe Acrobat Pro running on it.

I can take anything in the way of news, my own documents ... pretty much anything that can be digitized or is already in digital format ... highlight it, make handwritten notes on it, make links to websites. I get most of my magazines through Zinio on it, and can keep them for back reference.

The only thing I don't use it for (generally) is reading novels or best sellers, simply because my kindle is going to be much easier to slip into my micro pack and take with me when I go out for a walk and just want to sit and read. (And, then there's the issue of battery life.)

But ... seriously, I don't print much out for my own use anymore. The only time I print is when a client needs hard documents.

vivaldirules · 06-07-2008, 08:22 PM

"There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form."

Does no one else think Ballmer's on drugs - again? Digitally-delivered words may be much more common in 10 years but this is like predicting we'll have flying cars in a few more years. It's just not practical for everyone to have a digital device to read content with. If I'm at the grocery store and want to buy a magazine and don't have my latest Sony Reader (or whatever) with me, how am I going to buy it? Do you think they won't have any for sale? If I don't have a PC (plenty of real people don't have their own and won't 10 years from now), how do I buy a book? Do you think everyone will have Kindles (or the equivalent)? I doubt it. If I buy gasoline and want to run in and buy a copy of the newspaper, do you think they won't have one for sale? Of course they will.

And what about (dare I ask?) DRM and the protection of intellectual property and the multiplicity of hardware devices and digital formats? Does anyone think those problems will somehow evaporate allowing for the great proliferation of digital words?

I think there will be plenty of old-fashioned books, magazines, and newspapers 10 years from now (unless we're all under water by then or caught up in some other crisis).

zelda_pinwheel · 06-07-2008, 08:34 PM

WHAT ??? still no flying cars ????

ahem. sorry. what i meant to say was, you make a good point. i could argue that even people who don't have computers seem to all have cell-phones, and perhaps will be using their cellphones to read their magazines (which they will have bought via a bluetooth-enabled poster, like the ones they were talking about on the radio the other day ; apparently they are already in use in France and a huge success in Japan). but even that seems not to resolve *all* the logistical problems (not to mention, what a horrible idea, reading magazines on that tiny cellphone screen. how incredibly frustrating that would be). i do think it's likely though that paper will become the exception, rather than the norm. (however Ballmer could easily be on crack anyway, independently of the whole paper vs. digital debate)

RickyMaveety · 06-07-2008, 08:59 PM

Sooooo funny!! Both of you. The wit of the people around here just makes me grin ear to ear.

Did either of you ever watch an old film called "Things to Come"? As I recall they looked forward in that film to something like 1960 and we all had flying cars and more. Of course, the grim reality is that if we DID have flying cars, most people couldn't afford them and wouldn't know what to do with them if they could.

My own thought on the end of paper media envisions a very dim and distant future when high quality visual projectors can be built into even the cheapest reading or sun glasses and will be automatically linked to your implanted data chip that links you to the hub. Your data chip would simply tell the hub what magazines you were subscribed to, what movies you had rented, etc ... and automatically deduct the cost from your credit account on the hub. You, of course, would automatically get an update when your account was accessed (to help prevent fraud).

Ain't going to happen anytime soon .... but I can dream can't I??

RickyMaveety · 06-07-2008, 09:07 PM

OH, and before anyone goes off on me for the implanted chip thingie as being too "Big Brother" .... I know, I know, but I'm the least private person on the planet. I really don't much give a rat's patootie who tracks me, or my buying habits, or anything else.

I realize that I'm in a really small minority in this regard. Really really small. Teensy tiny .... microscopic. Small.

zelda_pinwheel · 06-07-2008, 09:09 PM

well, just as long as you're lucid about it...

RickyMaveety · 06-07-2008, 09:26 PM

Heaven's nooooo. I'm crazier than bat sh ...... guano. I'm just very upfront about it.

Donnageddon · 06-07-2008, 09:38 PM

RickyMaveety, just so you don't feel too alone, I want you to know that I really don't much give a rat's patootie who tracks you, your buying habits, or anything else about you.

See, you are not really in a minority all that small!

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06-06-2008, 06:46 PM	#2
Ervserver Wizard Posts: 2,624 Karma: 1008294 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Iowa, USA Device: Nook Simple Touch	No paper! thats a BIG prediction though I think there will be far fewer publications in paper form

06-06-2008, 07:22 PM	#3
moz Addict Posts: 370 Karma: 1553 Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Melbun Device: Kobo H2O	Once he has the paperless office thing working properly I'll be prepared to believe he has a plan for intangible media. 33 years and counting for the office... http://www.businessweek.com/technolo...dStories_ssi_5 Given the enduring popularity of vinyl records I find it hard to believe that analogue enthusiasts will convert to digital for his convenience. I can see hand-illustrated manuscripts continuing to be produced and at the low end of the market, I suspect 'zines and art/poetry books will continue to come out in hard copy. Not to mention painters... but sure, in 10 years all that might have changed. And Mr Ballmer might have gifted the world a bug-free service pack for Windows XP too.

06-06-2008, 07:23 PM	#4
zelda_pinwheel zeldinha zippy zeldissima Posts: 27,827 Karma: 921169 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Paris, France Device: eb1150 & is that a nook in her pocket, or she just happy to see you?	much as it pains me to agree with ANYTHING the CEO of M$ says, i admit that i'm nearly there myself, already.

06-07-2008, 06:39 PM	#8
RickyMaveety Holy S**T!!! Posts: 5,213 Karma: 108401 Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: San Diego, California!! Device: Kindle and iPad	I found a solution that works for me most of the time. It's a nice tablet PC running Windows XP which has OneNote and Adobe Acrobat Pro running on it. I can take anything in the way of news, my own documents ... pretty much anything that can be digitized or is already in digital format ... highlight it, make handwritten notes on it, make links to websites. I get most of my magazines through Zinio on it, and can keep them for back reference. The only thing I don't use it for (generally) is reading novels or best sellers, simply because my kindle is going to be much easier to slip into my micro pack and take with me when I go out for a walk and just want to sit and read. (And, then there's the issue of battery life.) But ... seriously, I don't print much out for my own use anymore. The only time I print is when a client needs hard documents.

06-07-2008, 08:22 PM	#9
vivaldirules When's Doughnut Day? Posts: 10,059 Karma: 13675475 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Houston, TX, US Device: Sony PRS-505, iPad	"There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form." Does no one else think Ballmer's on drugs - again? Digitally-delivered words may be much more common in 10 years but this is like predicting we'll have flying cars in a few more years. It's just not practical for everyone to have a digital device to read content with. If I'm at the grocery store and want to buy a magazine and don't have my latest Sony Reader (or whatever) with me, how am I going to buy it? Do you think they won't have any for sale? If I don't have a PC (plenty of real people don't have their own and won't 10 years from now), how do I buy a book? Do you think everyone will have Kindles (or the equivalent)? I doubt it. If I buy gasoline and want to run in and buy a copy of the newspaper, do you think they won't have one for sale? Of course they will. And what about (dare I ask?) DRM and the protection of intellectual property and the multiplicity of hardware devices and digital formats? Does anyone think those problems will somehow evaporate allowing for the great proliferation of digital words? I think there will be plenty of old-fashioned books, magazines, and newspapers 10 years from now (unless we're all under water by then or caught up in some other crisis).

06-07-2008, 08:34 PM	#10
zelda_pinwheel zeldinha zippy zeldissima Posts: 27,827 Karma: 921169 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Paris, France Device: eb1150 & is that a nook in her pocket, or she just happy to see you?	WHAT ??? still no flying cars ???? ahem. sorry. what i meant to say was, you make a good point. i could argue that even people who don't have computers seem to all have cell-phones, and perhaps will be using their cellphones to read their magazines (which they will have bought via a bluetooth-enabled poster, like the ones they were talking about on the radio the other day ; apparently they are already in use in France and a huge success in Japan). but even that seems not to resolve all the logistical problems (not to mention, what a horrible idea, reading magazines on that tiny cellphone screen. how incredibly frustrating that would be). i do think it's likely though that paper will become the exception, rather than the norm. (however Ballmer could easily be on crack anyway, independently of the whole paper vs. digital debate)

06-07-2008, 08:59 PM	#11
RickyMaveety Holy S**T!!! Posts: 5,213 Karma: 108401 Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: San Diego, California!! Device: Kindle and iPad	Sooooo funny!! Both of you. The wit of the people around here just makes me grin ear to ear. Did either of you ever watch an old film called "Things to Come"? As I recall they looked forward in that film to something like 1960 and we all had flying cars and more. Of course, the grim reality is that if we DID have flying cars, most people couldn't afford them and wouldn't know what to do with them if they could. My own thought on the end of paper media envisions a very dim and distant future when high quality visual projectors can be built into even the cheapest reading or sun glasses and will be automatically linked to your implanted data chip that links you to the hub. Your data chip would simply tell the hub what magazines you were subscribed to, what movies you had rented, etc ... and automatically deduct the cost from your credit account on the hub. You, of course, would automatically get an update when your account was accessed (to help prevent fraud). Ain't going to happen anytime soon .... but I can dream can't I??

06-07-2008, 09:07 PM	#12
RickyMaveety Holy S**T!!! Posts: 5,213 Karma: 108401 Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: San Diego, California!! Device: Kindle and iPad	OH, and before anyone goes off on me for the implanted chip thingie as being too "Big Brother" .... I know, I know, but I'm the least private person on the planet. I really don't much give a rat's patootie who tracks me, or my buying habits, or anything else. I realize that I'm in a really small minority in this regard. Really really small. Teensy tiny .... microscopic. Small.

06-07-2008, 09:09 PM	#13
zelda_pinwheel zeldinha zippy zeldissima Posts: 27,827 Karma: 921169 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Paris, France Device: eb1150 & is that a nook in her pocket, or she just happy to see you?	well, just as long as you're lucid about it...

06-07-2008, 09:26 PM	#14
RickyMaveety Holy S**T!!! Posts: 5,213 Karma: 108401 Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: San Diego, California!! Device: Kindle and iPad	Heaven's nooooo. I'm crazier than bat sh ...... guano. I'm just very upfront about it.

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06-07-2008, 09:38 PM	#15
Donnageddon Now you lishen here... Posts: 2,494 Karma: 479498 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Seattle-ish Device: Sony PRS-650. Kobo Touch, Kindle Fire	RickyMaveety, just so you don't feel too alone, I want you to know that I really don't much give a rat's patootie who tracks you, your buying habits, or anything else about you. See, you are not really in a minority all that small!