Samhain Publishing is winding down and will close

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by Pajamaman

What kind of workaround is necessary for US buyers to buy books from amazon.co.uk? I assumed there would be geo-restrictions. Is the workaround simple?

If I knew I would have said I know rather than I think.
I had just read it on a forum.

[Cinisajoy]

Straight from AE
AuthorEarnings reports analyze detailed title-level data on 33% of all daily ebook sales in the U.S.
30% of the ebooks being purchased in the U.S. do not use ISBN numbers and are invisible to the industry’s official market surveys and reports; all the ISBN-based estimates of market share reported by Bowker, AAP, BISG, and Nielsen are wildly wrong.

Full link:
http://authorearnings.com/report/jan...rnings-report/

[Pajamaman]

Originally Posted by Cinisajoy

Straight from AE
AuthorEarnings reports analyze detailed title-level data on 33% of all daily ebook sales in the U.S.
30% of the ebooks being purchased in the U.S. do not use ISBN numbers and are invisible to the industry’s official market surveys and reports; all the ISBN-based estimates of market share reported by Bowker, AAP, BISG, and Nielsen are wildly wrong.

Full link:
http://authorearnings.com/report/jan...rnings-report/

authorearnings include non-isbn books. The article states that Industry standard surveys do not. We are discussing the authorearnings report so I fail to see why you posted this.

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by Pajamaman

authorearnings include non-isbn books. The article states that Industry standard surveys do not. We are discussing the authorearnings report so I fail to see why you posted this.

For anyone who was unsure how they got their data.

[GeoffR]

Originally Posted by Pajamaman

The "crash" happened at the end of May, and was a drop of about 10 cents in the pound. I am skeptical that that is enough for most buyers to attempt to circumvent geo-restrictions, which is difficult to do and almost certainly against Amazon's rules. I don't think it explains the authorearnings drop in indie ebook sales.

Something else maybe?

There is no need for anyone to circumvect georestrictions to see the effect, the problem is to do with the way reports like authorearnings collect their data based on retailer rankings.

This is just an example based on my myself in New Zealand, but the same principle applies to any country that either doesn't have a local amazon site or has the choice between the amazon.com site and their local site or other retailers (e.g. there is an amazon.com.au store for Australia, but Amazon's Australian customers have the choice of buying on amazon.com or amazon.com.au witout circumventing georestrictions in any way.)

I am in New Zealand which has no local Amazon site, so I can buy ebooks from amazon.com (in US dollars), from amazon.com.au or (in Australian dollars), from Apple, Google, Kobo and local retailers (in New Zealand dollars), and I can also buy direct from publishers such as Rebellion (UK pounds), Baen (US dollars), Macmillan (Australian dollars), and many others. None of this requires circumventing georestrictions in any way.

If I buy from amazon.com then that registers the same as a US sale as far as amazon.com rankings go, and so reports that rely on rankings will count that as a US sale.

If I buy from amazon.com.au then that counts the same as an Australian sale as far as amazon rankings go, i.e. ir I switch from amazon.com to amazon.com.au then to reports based on rankings that counts as a lost US sale but a gain in Australian sales (if the report bothers to collect data on Australian sales, which they usually don't.)

If I buy from Apple, Google or Kobo then that counts as a New Zealand sale and is not counted in either US or Australian rankings at all. So if I switch from amazon.com to Apple Google or Kobo then that counts as a lost US sale without any corresponding gain elsewhere because reports don't bother to analyse New Zealand sales.

So a swich by New Zealand ebook buyers from Amazon to Apple, say, shows up in authorearnings reports as lower overall ebook sales, because even if they analyse rankings at different retailers they do not report on New Zealand sales.

The connection with the UK pound crash is that UK publishers now are now getting more pounds for every New Zealand dollar they earn, so they can afford either to drop prices in New Zealand, or to absorb local tax increases, or to spend more on promotion.

the Big US publishers can respond by dropping prices or spending more on promotion to compete, because most of them set their prices for New Zealand and can easily change them without affecting their prices in the US if they are willing to reduce their margins. Some have done this, for example Tor books are now priced significantly lower in New Zealand than they are in the US.

But the self-publishers and small publishers who set their base price in US dollars and rely on the retailer or distributor to automatically convert and add local tax will see their books become less competitive in New Zealand, as will small US publishers who sell direct (such as Baen and Soho press.)

Reports that focus on the US market via retailer rankings and/or which exclude low-ranked books cannot be accurate because Amazon includes many non-US sales in the same ranks as US sales and Amazon doesn't have local sites in all the countries that retailers like Apple Google and Kobo do.

[pwalker8]

Sometimes people read too much into these numbers. No one actually publishes sales figures, so all these numbers are simply estimates based on various surveys and guess work. Unfortunately, sometime people forget that and start talking about these reports like they were absolute gospel.

[Pajamaman]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Sometimes people read too much into these numbers. No one actually publishes sales figures, so all these numbers are simply estimates based on various surveys and guess work. Unfortunately, sometime people forget that and start talking about these reports like they were absolute gospel.

I disagree. The figures are based on a number of snapshots of sales over a period of time. The trend is demonstrably down for authors earning more than $10000.

Why is this? It seems KU is part of it. Also trad-pub has lowered its prices on ebooks. Interestingly, their sales have remained static. But their lowering of price will make indie books look like less good value. In addition, indie publishing have been increasing their prices.

This factors go a long way to explain the observed reduction in sales.

[Pajamaman]

Say Good-Bye to Book and eBook Bloggers – Amazon Has Changed the Fee Schedule for Its Affiliate Program

I don't know if this will have an impact on indie-ebook sales, but it will hurt bloggers who advertise indie ebooks. Also this will reduce the ability of indie authors to advertise and get noticed off the Amazon site. Indie-publishing is becoming less "indie" and more Amazon.

[Blossom]

This belongs in its own thread. It has nothing to do with Samhain.

Sent from my XT1528

[Pajamaman]

I noticed this in Samhain's shutdown letter:

“We’ve tried to renegotiate terms with Amazon in order to buy better placement within their site and perhaps regain some of the lost traction from the early days but have been met with silence. Other retail sites are trying, but the sales have never risen to the level of Amazon and are declining as well.”

It certainly seems to allude to a non-arbitrary ranking system in the Amazon book-display system, and that Samhain feels it has suffered because of it.

I wonder if there is evidence for this. How are books ranked on Amazon?

[BearMountainBooks]

Originally Posted by Pajamaman

I noticed this in Samhain's shutdown letter:



It certainly seems to allude to a non-arbitrary ranking system in the Amazon book-display system, and that Samhain feels it has suffered because of it.

I wonder if there is evidence for this. How are books ranked on Amazon?

The ranking rules change frequently and are highly proprietary/secret. They don't want people to game the system (for a time, an author could buy her own books and gift them and this would improve rankings hugely). There have been other games such as buying books at midnight when other books had slow sales, etc (this was during print times. Not so much ebooks).

Right now Amazon is favoring the big 5 or 6. I'm sure they are being paid handsomely for it.

[Pajamaman]

Originally Posted by BearMountainBooks

The ranking rules change frequently and are highly proprietary/secret. They don't want people to game the system (for a time, an author could buy her own books and gift them and this would improve rankings hugely). There have been other games such as buying books at midnight when other books had slow sales, etc (this was during print times. Not so much ebooks).

Right now Amazon is favoring the big 5 or 6. I'm sure they are being paid handsomely for it.

http://www.thepassivevoice.com/2016/02/samhain-closing/

Yes, publishers can buy better placement through contract negotiations and terms. Any previously Amazon bestselling author can tell you that after Amazon’s legal battle ended with publishers last year, their Amazon placement tanked. Whereas they could once rely on landing a new release in the Top 10 of their genre or even overall, they’re now lucky to get inside the Top 100 with better sales numbers. You see more trad published authors in those spots now. And it’s because of “buying” better placement through contract negotiations.

But that comment is anecdotal in the sense it's not backed up by data. But common-sense dictates that Amazon doctors its ranking system to further its business goals and revenues. To suggest it is totally without tweaking seems naive to me.

I wonder if anyone analyzes the change in ranking-system over time.

In any case, there does appear to anecdotal evidence from experienced parties that Amazon has increased it favoring of the big 5, and that this has impacted non-big5 sales, including Samhain. Plus the big 5 have lowered their prices. I wonder what deal they cooked up with Amazon.

[BearMountainBooks]

The big 5 have not lowered their prices--they have sales and control those sales, but I would not say they have lowered their prices overall. They just have a different strategy and now utilize the 2.99, 1.99 and 99 cent price points. They also utilize 14.99 for new releases (ebooks) and 9.99 quite frequently.

[Pajamaman]

I read on authourearnings that the big 5 have lowered their prices (on older books, I think), but that they had not increased sales as a result. Sales were static. I'll try to find the link.

[BearMountainBooks]

That could be true. It's hard to track because they, like indies, do various sales and whatnot, but overall, I thought prices had gone up. Through discussion on this thread, it appears that is because I am more often looking at new releases. I do see the big publishers doing sales (although I wouldn't say it was more often--just different than it used to be).