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Old 01-11-2010, 06:50 PM   #1
tomsem
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"Future Of E-Readers Looks Blurry"

With Competition Looming, Future Of E-Readers Looks Blurry

Some dubious assumptions here, but I agree that dedicated reading devices have a limited future (well, what doesn't?). They aren't going to go away by the end of next year, though.
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Old 01-11-2010, 07:00 PM   #2
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All the people quoted in this article have a specific agenda.

In the second half of 2010 and 2011 tablets will crush netbooks, not readers. Phones could crush readers if they had the right screen technology and would still fit comfortably in your pocket while having at least a 6" display. So while tablets will outsell readers (mostly due to all the hype), the tablet users will not buy a lot of reading materials, on average.

What will really crush readers? When tablets, computers, readers all merge into one. Then laptops and readers will disappear, or laptops will be usable as both tablets and laptops.
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Old 01-11-2010, 07:06 PM   #3
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Sorry ... the article begins:

The electronic book reader, introduced just over two years ago, might be nearing the end of its lifespan.

or should it be The Carpenters hit tune?

We've Only Just Begun ...
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Old 01-11-2010, 07:17 PM   #4
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The only way a tablet will crush the reader is if the screens are able to be used in full sunlight, have a battery life of a week (at least), are not too big and bulky, and are not too heavy. And I don't see all of this happening in 2010 or 2011.
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Old 01-11-2010, 08:00 PM   #5
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Tablet could not.

Smartbooks & MID might be.
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Old 01-11-2010, 08:01 PM   #6
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A lot of these articles are popping up by tech writers who need an easy story to fill up their story quotas. YAWN.

E-readers aren't going away any more than the iPhone and various smartphones have killed off mp3 players.
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Old 01-11-2010, 08:49 PM   #7
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No one has a fully functional crystal ball yet (the technology is still in it's infancy)! It's just supposition on each of these writer's part...who, I might add, most likely are not regular users of reading devices. Folks will write what they will, but dollars are the only thing that really talks. The bottom line...profit & loss will determine whether or not dedicated reading devices will flourish.

My suggestion...just keep buying those readers, guys!!!! We can prove them wrong if we continue adding to our collections...keep the economy moving!!!!
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Old 01-11-2010, 08:50 PM   #8
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Good grief, they sure didn't bother to check facts. E-readers introduced a little over two years ago? I've got TWO older than that. If they're talking e-ink, they need to specify.
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Old 01-11-2010, 09:01 PM   #9
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Video may have killed the radio star ... but movies didn't kill radio and television didn't kill movies and dvd didn't kill television and people still read a heck of a lot of books. Even, these days, a lot of e-books.

Of course, I wouldn't be investing in manufacturing 35mm film for use in my dad's Pentax. But even Kodak saw that coming and is selling digital cameras and an infrastructure to support them. It won't be long before "ASA 100" will mean nothing to the woman winning the prize for best "photograph" from her local newspaper.

Still, it's a bit early to be readying the dirge for e-readers. Desktops, laptops, notebooks, netbooks, smartbooks, tablets, pdas, iphones, nexuses and a variety of dual-screen hybrids seen at CES 2010 can all "display" e-books. (Does that make items on the display in the window of my local second hand book store pre-e-books?)

I believe a well crafted, inexpensive, easy to reload e-book reader -- with something like the Kindle 2 as a model -- has some future shelf life worth considering. Do something really well that people value ... and you can thrive. Even in an age of "space station tourism", lots of folks still buy and ride bicycles.

Last edited by SensualPoet; 01-11-2010 at 09:04 PM.
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Old 01-11-2010, 10:02 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tomsem View Post
I agree that dedicated reading devices have a limited future (well, what doesn't?)
Me.

All these articles are written by the same sort of tech-twonks who can't see the forest for the trees. The key factor here is size. You can read books on your smartphone, but the fact is the screen is too small. You can read books on a netbook, but the fact is the device is too big. The most comfortable size for a single column of text is a 5-7" screen, and that sits in a middle zone that's too big for a phone and not big enough for general web browsing. Since size is the crucial factor, it doesn't really matter what technology appears, the basic physics will remain the same.

The Kindle, Sony and B&N readers have sold well, and there's still a lot of growth in the market for people who want a device that is good for reading books. Sure, extras would be nice, but it has to perform its core function properly. As long as manufacturers play to their strengths and produce products that obey that rule, then they'll sell product.

Phone cameras haven't hurt the sales of SLRs, and games on the iPhone App Store haven't led to the demise of the XBox. So much for 'convergence'.

The only area in which I see any real prospect for convergence is with the larger ereaders. If you need to display multi-column text on an 11" screen, then it makes a lot more sense for the device to carry more generalised functionality as well.
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Old 01-11-2010, 10:28 PM   #11
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Old 01-11-2010, 11:13 PM   #12
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The only way a tablet will crush the reader is if the screens are able to be used in full sunlight, have a battery life of a week (at least), are not too big and bulky, and are not too heavy. And I don't see all of this happening in 2010 or 2011.
I could see a display like Mirasol doing that and they are reportedly in production but I bet they're going to be really expensive for quite some time.

Personally, I don't require a week on a battery but a solid day is the absolute minimum for me.
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Old 01-12-2010, 04:45 AM   #13
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Argh I am sick of reading about tablet PCs being the e-ink killer. I wish that authors of these articles did a little thinking before typing.

- Most people with ereaders have a 5" or 6" screen. Essentially the smallest laptop screen is 7" on the Asus EeePC (which is barely big enough to do anything on).
- Given the screen size issue, you'd expect at least a 10" screen to allow for decent sized icons on the screen for touch etc. Straight away the size will scare off people who like small dedicated ereaders.
- For a tablet to be successful it needs to run Windows (be honest, business wont buy them if they don't, schools wont buy them etc). That means a tablet will need probably a minimum of the Intel Atom 1.6 to run. That will make the device heavy and hot (with fans as well).

Now comes the cost issue. They will more than likely cost more than a laptop, offer no dedicated keyboard (except software driven - not really practical - ask any iphone owner to type an sms and you'll know what I mean). So will a device that is approx the same size as a laptop (perhaps thinner), cost more than a laptop, be fundamentally more difficult to use than a dedicated computer, be an ereader killer?
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Old 01-12-2010, 05:21 AM   #14
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Argh I am sick of reading about tablet PCs being the e-ink killer. I wish that authors of these articles did a little thinking before typing.

- Most people with ereaders have a 5" or 6" screen. Essentially the smallest laptop screen is 7" on the Asus EeePC (which is barely big enough to do anything on).
- Given the screen size issue, you'd expect at least a 10" screen to allow for decent sized icons on the screen for touch etc. Straight away the size will scare off people who like small dedicated ereaders.
- For a tablet to be successful it needs to run Windows (be honest, business wont buy them if they don't, schools wont buy them etc). That means a tablet will need probably a minimum of the Intel Atom 1.6 to run. That will make the device heavy and hot (with fans as well).

Now comes the cost issue. They will more than likely cost more than a laptop, offer no dedicated keyboard (except software driven - not really practical - ask any iphone owner to type an sms and you'll know what I mean). So will a device that is approx the same size as a laptop (perhaps thinner), cost more than a laptop, be fundamentally more difficult to use than a dedicated computer, be an ereader killer?
Your post is even more presumptuous about what will happen than the article that it's trying to refute.
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Old 01-12-2010, 05:42 AM   #15
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So will a device that is approx the same size as a laptop (perhaps thinner), cost more than a laptop, be fundamentally more difficult to use than a dedicated computer, be an ereader killer?
Of course! It will do this by the simple expedient of appealing to people who never would have bought an ereader in the first place
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