Why aren't e-books more successful? - by Walt Crawford

Stuart Young · 10-17-2006, 03:11 AM

This is the 2nd piece we've posted from Walt Crawford recently. This time the topic of discussion is one which is probably on the lips of serveral Sony execs.

Quote:

So what happened? If you believe the International Digital Publishing Forum, 2005 worldwide ebook sales were up 23% from 2004—to just under $12 million, considerably less than Forrester's or Accenture's projections. By comparison, the total U.S. book publishing market was between $25.1 and $31.6 billion—up more than a billion from the previous year. Worldwide ebook sales represent about 1% of the increase in U.S. book sales—but less than one-twentieth of one percent of total U.S. book sales. In other words, ebook sales might just amount to a rounding error in overall book sales.

Read the rest of the article here.

Oh and for all those who wonder 'Why Aren’t Ebooks More Successful?' it's because these folks haven't released an e-ink device yet.

(biased naaaah)

yvanleterrible · 10-17-2006, 09:16 AM

I agree. An Apple e-ink would be so Cooooool!

When they get it out it will be color fer shure!

Has anybody seen legalese movements for text acquisition by Apple ?

rmeister0 · 10-17-2006, 09:24 AM

I think Apple getting into e-books is like the mythical Mac Tablet or the iPhone.

Maybe I will be proven wrong on the iPhone at some point, but I just don't see Apple getting into a market they would have so little control of.

I think it more likely that Apple would just add electronic texts to the iPod so they have another bullet point of features, but even then I can't see how they'd make the user interface attractive in that instance.

Stuart Young · 10-17-2006, 09:32 AM

I wasnt intending this to be an Apple'esque thread. Ipods or any portable media player great. But I do like some devices to remain unique.. e.g. I love the idea of a dedicated ebook reader like the PRS-500. - I must be getting old or something.

yvanleterrible · 10-17-2006, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stuart Young

I wasnt intending this to be an Apple'esque thread. Ipods or any portable media player great. But I do like some devices to remain unique.. e.g. I love the idea of a dedicated ebook reader like the PRS-500. - I must be getting old or somethig.

You're right Stuart.
Take cars for instance, if you need a truck to carry stuff, you use a truck, not a car. To get from point a to point b you use a car because fuel is wasted with a truck. To me the mix of both like SUVs is total waste because it does not do both adequately.

I like my gadgets dedicated.

Jake · 10-17-2006, 10:56 AM

Amen to that - not to dis' other members who are passionate about reading on multi-functional PDA's etc. but since getting a Sony Reader I honestly can say I would never go back. For me it is night and day. Despite some shortcomings, the 'dedicated reader' features - screen, size, bookmarks, battery life etc. really win out. Reading this morning over coffee at a local place, I realized it's almost like a totallly different personalized reading experience. From a marketing standpoint, the hard part (I imagine) is most probably coaxing an increasingly non-literate public to try e-books.

I recently spoke with a young man (college educated etc.) who actually believes that books in general are absolutely un-necessary. He gets all the information he needs (so he thinks) from other media (internet, video, audio etc.). He is not unintelligent and had well-thought out (and utterly wrong of course

) reasoning for his views. Some days I think he might be representative of his generation and others I think and hope not. I certainly do not believe that e-books alone will entice non-readers back into the reading fold. How sad though, if 20 years from now, absolutely perfect, low-cost digital books and readers appear and no-one around who cares to read anymore. A whole generation lost to video screens. ah well...

yvanleterrible · 10-17-2006, 11:07 AM

Probably a kid stuck in the "Dick and Jane" saga. I often wonder what happened to them?

tcv · 10-17-2006, 11:44 AM

I think eBooks will succeed because the industry wants it to happen. Yes, it may take several generations of devices and content developers, but ultimately this is what they want to happen. Rarely does a company come out with a revolutionary idea that catches on immediately (the original Palm Pilot would be an exception). For the rest, it takes a long, long time. Very few people actually envisioned back in the late 1940s and early 1950s that I'd have a need or a want for a MacBook. Nor did they envision people running entire daily lives in Terminal Services sessions from their homes.

Ebooks will happen.

radleyp · 10-17-2006, 12:07 PM

I think you are all missing the point that Crawford (and others) make: the printed book works, so why switch? Over and over I keep hearing from the computer crowd that ereaders are terrific because they allow us to carry several (80, I think, on the Sony reader) books at once. So what! Virtually everyone I know who reads (my wife, my daughter and I are long-time readers) reads ONE BOOK at a time, ok maybe two. So what difference does it make that I can carry many? Absolutely none. Nor do most people care about changing fonts, darkening type, etc... It is this contentment with what exists that stands in the way of success for ebooks, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

jæd · 10-17-2006, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by radleyp

I think you are all missing the point that Crawford (and others) make: the printed book works, so why switch? Over and over I keep hearing from the computer crowd that ereaders are terrific because they allow us to carry several (80, I think, on the Sony reader) books at once. So what! Virtually everyone I know who reads (my wife, my daughter and I are long-time readers) reads ONE BOOK at a time, ok maybe two. So what difference does it make that I can carry many? Absolutely none. Nor do most people care about changing fonts, darkening type, etc... It is this contentment with what exists that stands in the way of success for ebooks, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Depends... I usually read about two or three books at the same time, dipping into them when I feel like it. With the Illiad I can take them where-ever I go... And as a developer I refer to paper books... With the Illiad they can all fit on one device, rather than needing a whole bookcase...!

NatCh · 10-17-2006, 12:20 PM

Yah, jæd, but radleyp's point is that we're not exactly typical.

yvanleterrible · 10-17-2006, 12:22 PM

You can not change from paper to e-books (I hate the p-book word

) completely. Paper is the back-up. Never forget it. E-books are only a practical, temporary state of the book. I favor having both.

Launchpd · 10-17-2006, 01:14 PM

"So what difference does it make that I can carry many?" Simple answer: ever finish a book whan you're not at home?
"Nor do most people care about changing fonts, darkening type, etc... ". Just wait until you're 60. You'll care a lot!

Leaping Gnome · 10-17-2006, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tcv

Rarely does a company come out with a revolutionary idea that catches on immediately (the original Palm Pilot would be an exception). For the rest, it takes a long, long time.

I think PDAs are a good comparision to eBook Readers, but the opposite of what you describe. The Palm Pilot did not come out until 1996, before that there were many generations of PDAs (Apple coined the term in 1992 with the Newton) going back to the 70s. Psion Organiser in 1984, Sharp Wizard in 1992, AT&T EO in 1993, etc... The Palm Pilot brought in a lot of consumer acceptance, it broke the barrier of price/ease-of-use/marketing/timeliness. There will be an eReader that does this too. Might even be the Sony Reader if they actually make the Connect store an eBook version of iTunes.

mickeymammoth · 10-17-2006, 01:36 PM

I think book storage is big issue for many of us. I like paper books, but I don't have room for them all. Plus, I like instant gratification of being able to download a book and not have to order it or go to the store. I think they have a point, though; MP3 players worked for the above reasons, for sure, but also because people actually want a lot of choice of what music to listen to when they're out and about. That will never be exactly the same for books. Maybe what we're really waiting for is an e-reader/web browser/PC that has the amazing e-ink-like screen technology, but in color and without the weird redraw issues. When that convergence happens, I think ebooks will take off.

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10-17-2006, 09:16 AM	#2
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	I agree. An Apple e-ink would be so Cooooool! When they get it out it will be color fer shure! Has anybody seen legalese movements for text acquisition by Apple ?

10-17-2006, 09:24 AM	#3
rmeister0 Addict Posts: 270 Karma: 298 Join Date: Mar 2005	I think Apple getting into e-books is like the mythical Mac Tablet or the iPhone. Maybe I will be proven wrong on the iPhone at some point, but I just don't see Apple getting into a market they would have so little control of. I think it more likely that Apple would just add electronic texts to the iPod so they have another bullet point of features, but even then I can't see how they'd make the user interface attractive in that instance.

10-17-2006, 09:32 AM	#4
Stuart Young MobileRead Editor Posts: 195 Karma: 75 Join Date: May 2006 Location: London Device: e61i / Eee PC / PRS-505	I wasnt intending this to be an Apple'esque thread. Ipods or any portable media player great. But I do like some devices to remain unique.. e.g. I love the idea of a dedicated ebook reader like the PRS-500. - I must be getting old or something.

10-17-2006, 10:56 AM	#6
Jake Renaissance Man Posts: 45 Karma: 10 Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Seattle Device: Sony Reader	Amen to that - not to dis' other members who are passionate about reading on multi-functional PDA's etc. but since getting a Sony Reader I honestly can say I would never go back. For me it is night and day. Despite some shortcomings, the 'dedicated reader' features - screen, size, bookmarks, battery life etc. really win out. Reading this morning over coffee at a local place, I realized it's almost like a totallly different personalized reading experience. From a marketing standpoint, the hard part (I imagine) is most probably coaxing an increasingly non-literate public to try e-books. I recently spoke with a young man (college educated etc.) who actually believes that books in general are absolutely un-necessary. He gets all the information he needs (so he thinks) from other media (internet, video, audio etc.). He is not unintelligent and had well-thought out (and utterly wrong of course ) reasoning for his views. Some days I think he might be representative of his generation and others I think and hope not. I certainly do not believe that e-books alone will entice non-readers back into the reading fold. How sad though, if 20 years from now, absolutely perfect, low-cost digital books and readers appear and no-one around who cares to read anymore. A whole generation lost to video screens. ah well...

10-17-2006, 11:07 AM	#7
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	Probably a kid stuck in the "Dick and Jane" saga. I often wonder what happened to them?

10-17-2006, 11:44 AM	#8
tcv Addict Posts: 330 Karma: 596 Join Date: Oct 2006	I think eBooks will succeed because the industry wants it to happen. Yes, it may take several generations of devices and content developers, but ultimately this is what they want to happen. Rarely does a company come out with a revolutionary idea that catches on immediately (the original Palm Pilot would be an exception). For the rest, it takes a long, long time. Very few people actually envisioned back in the late 1940s and early 1950s that I'd have a need or a want for a MacBook. Nor did they envision people running entire daily lives in Terminal Services sessions from their homes. Ebooks will happen.

10-17-2006, 12:07 PM	#9
radleyp Evangelist Posts: 499 Karma: 20623 Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: North Salem & NYC, NY Device: Kindle Global, iphone4, ipad	I think you are all missing the point that Crawford (and others) make: the printed book works, so why switch? Over and over I keep hearing from the computer crowd that ereaders are terrific because they allow us to carry several (80, I think, on the Sony reader) books at once. So what! Virtually everyone I know who reads (my wife, my daughter and I are long-time readers) reads ONE BOOK at a time, ok maybe two. So what difference does it make that I can carry many? Absolutely none. Nor do most people care about changing fonts, darkening type, etc... It is this contentment with what exists that stands in the way of success for ebooks, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

10-17-2006, 12:20 PM	#11
NatCh Gizmologist Posts: 11,615 Karma: 929550 Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Republic of Texas Embassy at Jackson, TN Device: Pocketbook Touch HD3	Yah, jæd, but radleyp's point is that we're not exactly typical.

10-17-2006, 12:22 PM	#12
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	You can not change from paper to e-books (I hate the p-book word ) completely. Paper is the back-up. Never forget it. E-books are only a practical, temporary state of the book. I favor having both.

10-17-2006, 01:14 PM	#13
Launchpd Junior Member Posts: 2 Karma: 10 Join Date: Oct 2006 Device: Sony prs-500	"So what difference does it make that I can carry many?" Simple answer: ever finish a book whan you're not at home? "Nor do most people care about changing fonts, darkening type, etc... ". Just wait until you're 60. You'll care a lot!

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10-17-2006, 01:36 PM	#15
mickeymammoth Member Posts: 20 Karma: 38987 Join Date: Oct 2006 Device: Kobo Forma	I think book storage is big issue for many of us. I like paper books, but I don't have room for them all. Plus, I like instant gratification of being able to download a book and not have to order it or go to the store. I think they have a point, though; MP3 players worked for the above reasons, for sure, but also because people actually want a lot of choice of what music to listen to when they're out and about. That will never be exactly the same for books. Maybe what we're really waiting for is an e-reader/web browser/PC that has the amazing e-ink-like screen technology, but in color and without the weird redraw issues. When that convergence happens, I think ebooks will take off.