Ebooks now 8.5% of sales, expected to climb to 40% in 3-5 years

[cfrizz]

The books that I bought, I have always kept. I don't lend out my books so just keeping my ebooks for me is no big deal.

[Canuck_in_Japan]

Originally Posted by Lady Fitzgerald

Ah, another doomsday for p-books thread.

The last thread told us that p-books would be dead in 5 years and now they'll have 60% marketshare in 5 years!! Things are looking up! The next thread will probably declare that e-books are dying.

[jgaiser]

Paper books are not going to go away anytime soon. We (ebook readers) are a very small part of a market and when I go to *my* local independent bookstore, I see row upon row of non-fiction books that aren't available as ebooks. Hundreds and hundreds of cookbooks. Hundreds and hundreds of travel books. Hundreds and hundreds of art books. And many hundreds of books that just don't fit into any of the current genres that make up the popular ebooks.

Do I think the fiction market is going to change. You bet. But to paraphrase Mark Twain "The reports of the death of paper books have been greatly exaggerated".

[SensualPoet]

It's worth looking at what happened to magazines, and not just records. Not that long ago, magazine publishing was a huge industry. The advent of the web has drastically curtailed the business. Large newsstands -- and certainly magazine outlets on every corner -- are a rarity. I think the same thing will happen to paperback stores and sooner than we might expect. Ebooks are convenient in so many ways. If it's 10% this year, 40% in a couple of more years isn't really out of the question. Stores will need to retool, downsize or close to survive this evolution.

[jgaiser]

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

It's worth looking at what happened to magazines, and not just records.

And yet magazines are still around and in some areas thriving. Markets *are* going to change, but predicting the death of books after many centuries of use is a bit premature.

[jgaiser]

An example of unavailable fiction and non-fiction... This afternoon at Powell's Bookstore, I picked up copies of Shelby Foote's "Shiloh" and his "The Civil War: A Narrative - Part 1" (I'm in a Civil War thing right now).

Just for the heck of it, I searched the internet for *legal* ebooks of either. Nothing found, though I did find all three parts of The Civil War Narrative on the darknet. Both are in print and available in paper at Amazon. These aren't esoteric, fringe books and "Shiloh" is fiction.

[SensualPoet]

Originally Posted by jgaiser

And yet magazines are still around and in some areas thriving.

But, that's simply not true. The breadth of magazines available even 10 years ago dwarfs what is for sale, and where, today. Go back a decade earlier and the situation is starker still. Life, Saturday Evening Post, Look, TV Guide have all been mainstream casualties ... and you can add Newsweek to that shortly.

Originally Posted by jgaiser

Markets *are* going to change, but predicting the death of books after many centuries of use is a bit premature.

This mantra of "death of books" is entirely rhetorical. The much quoted Amazon stat that paid e-books outsold hardcovers sold by Amazon in 2010 came with the footnote that hardcover sales were also up during the period. It's hard to die while the market is growing.

The distribution channels are changing, and the way people consume books is changing with the consequence that the economics of getting books from author to reader are changing too. By the time Amazon announces its pback sales have been surpassed by paid e-book sales, the writing will be on the wall -- and that, according to Amazon, could be 2012.

Will you still be able to buy some new pbacks for the foreseeable future? Of course: they are still making vinyl records 26 years after the introduction of CDs. But 78s? Not so much. And vinyl distribution is a tiny, niche industry that could not possibly support the music industry. That same dynamic will creep onto the resume of pbacks, probably within this decade.

[Steven Lake]

SensualPoet: Now while I don't question that ebook sales are growing, I highly question Amazon's numbers. They're known to throw out bold faced lies in order to make themselves look far better than they really are (it's the only thing that saved them from bankruptcy), and having them throw out highly doctored numbers to help improve their kindle sales is not at all surprising to me.

Honestly, if someone were to break down the total number of ebook sales vs paperback and hardcover in each genre, then we'd get a far more realistic view of the sales percentages of ebooks vs pb and hc. Lumping all ebook sales into one basket and print books into another, and then comparing the two is like comparing apples to oranges and does neither side any favors.

[J. Strnad]

I'm not likely to sign any more contracts with traditional publishers.

Me, either! Somebody would have to make an offer.

But you could always retain ebook sales, unless that was a deal-breaker for the publisher.

[corona]

Originally Posted by ProfCrash

I think that we will see the return of the independent bookstore in the next 10-20 years. As the big chains have to change their business model and start closing stores you will see the independent book store reopen to provide the DTB to the person who loves the DTB. I see them as similar to smaller record stores that have opened to sell the actual vynal (sp) album.

This is an interesting point. I think someone is opening up a large-ish independent bookstore in Vancouver (Canada, yo!) on just this premise.

Sorry to say this, but I think the big-box bookstores have done some great things for bookselling, not the least of them being the notion that a cup of coffee can exist within the physical confines of a bookstore without destroying the entire stock, that it's okay to actually have children, etc. I know of one used bookstore that's become successful as a business by becoming the hub of its neighbourhood. (A friend of mine got married there!)

So maybe there's hope, because bookstores are really quite lovely.

A related (kind of) question: Why can't you get e-books in physical format? I can buy an album online, or buy it on a CD and rip it right to my computer/MP3 player/phone. How come I can't go into a bookstore, get my consumer juices flowing, look at books, and then decide to buy a digital edition loaded on a cheap memory card, stuck to an appealing piece of cardboard and hanging from a peg? This would be one way to revitalize the bookstore, IMO.

[sony_fox]

How come I can't go into a bookstore, get my consumer juices flowing, look at books, and then decide to buy a digital edition loaded on a cheap memory card, stuck to an appealing piece of cardboard and hanging from a peg? This would be one way to revitalize the bookstore, IMO.

I would so like this. Doesn't even need the memory card, could just be akiosk with a USB cable.

I really like bookshops. I detest buying ebooks, it is just hassle. They never have what you want, in a format my region is allowed to have. And of the things that I wasn't specifically looking for theres way way too much stuff I'm not interested in and no sensible way of filtering it. Bookshops allow you brouse sensibly, and then buy what you see. And they are just nicer all round.

[DJHARKAVY]

Originally Posted by sony_fox

I would so like this. Doesn't even need the memory card, could just be akiosk with a USB cable.

I really like bookshops. I detest buying ebooks, it is just hassle. They never have what you want, in a format my region is allowed to have. And of the things that I wasn't specifically looking for theres way way too much stuff I'm not interested in and no sensible way of filtering it. Bookshops allow you brouse sensibly, and then buy what you see. And they are just nicer all round.

FYE does that for music. You can put together a CD or you can plug in your cables to download music that you buy there.

[SameOldStory]

Originally Posted by sony_fox

I really like bookshops. I detest buying ebooks, it is just hassle.

Round and round it goes. Where it stops, nobody knows.

I really like bookshops too, but I haven't bought a paper book for over a year. Each of us will have our own preferences that are right for "us".

I used to wander the isles looking for something to read. Hoping something would catch my attention. If nothing did I would go to a different store and start it all over again. The other bookstore would have a slightly different selection from the first bookstore. After a couple of pleasant hours wandering around I would choose something, anything at all just to go home.

Now, I no longer have to kneel down to read the titles on the bottom shelf. I find good books quickly and easily. I never have to settle for "any book" just to have something to read. The books are downloaded and ready to read within minutes.

For me the biggest downside to ebooks is that I have so many unread books on my reader.

Change is coming. Whether it will occur in 5 minutes, 5 years, or 15 years is something we can have fun trying to predict. But it will happen. And many will be unhappy with the outcome, no matter what it turns out to be.

[saoir]

Originally Posted by bauerhjb

One thing I haven't seen mentioned in this topic is the fact that paper books belong to the purchaser to do with as they wish but ebooks belong to the publisher/writer and the purchaser has no rights except to read it as is. Ebooks currently may not be sold, traded or even given away. Until or unless this changes I will still buy and keep pbooks along with ebooks.

I don't believe this is factually correct. Once we purchase and download an eBook file this file, like an MP3 of a song is ours to keep and use as we like. There are arguments about the conditions listed on some web sites but the truth is that no court would ever support a proposition that the file is not ours to keep and use as we like.

[SensualPoet]

Originally Posted by Steven Lake

I highly question Amazon's numbers. They're known to throw out bold faced lies in order to make themselves look far better than they really are (it's the only thing that saved them from bankruptcy), and having them throw out highly doctored numbers to help improve their kindle sales is not at all surprising to me.

Well, that's your choice, of course, to simply not believe Amazon.

But Amazon is a public company and the board of directors and folks like Jeff Bezos are obligated to "tell the truth" in public. The operational stats you are referring to were released concurrent with financials for Q2. If Bezos can be shown to have materially mis-led the public, he can be sued, he can go to jail, he can be fined heavily and can find himself, and the company, at the receiving end of a very nasty class action suit.

If Apple states it sold 3 million iPads in two months, I don't think they really sold 100,000 and the other 2.9 million are in some warehouse or landfill. Similarly, if Amazon says it sold more paid e-books than hardcovers in 2010, and that they sold more hardcovers are the same time; that it sold 75% of all the James Patterson e-books ever based on the ABA figs; that it sold over 1 million Stieg Larsson ebooks ... I believe him (and Amazon). Under court order, it would be child's play to prove him right or wrong. And wrong has desperate personal and corporate consequences.