CNET predicts dedicated ereaders are doomed technology

[MrsJoseph]

http://cnettv.cnet.com/?tag=hdr;brandnav

On January 24th CNET TV posted a video predicting their top 5 doomed technologies:

5. Blu-ray
4. dedicated ereaders
3. 3D TV
2. Wireless HDMI
1. Wi-Fi in cars

CNET predicts that dedicated ereaders are a doomed technology and they will soon be over taken by tablets. "Readers, they're a niche for life."

And here I was thinking of buying a Sony PRS-950.

[elcreative]

Ahh, the media once more doing their self-defined task of predicting the future, something they have such a great record at...

Actually I think they may be 80% right for a change... I leave it to your discerning tastes to decide which one I disagree with...

[GreenMonkey]

There was a recent blog like this that predicted that keys would go away for houses...replaced by digital access systems, keyless entry, etc.

Not. Going to happen.

[Sweetpea]

The market may shrink, but I doubt it will completely disappear until all the advantages of a dedicated reader can be found in tablets (which means mostly battery life of several weeks and a screen that is stable and easily readable in bright conditions).

[injapan]

yes, I agree. For the dedicated reader, e-ink is great (battery life) but if you have to keep on recharging ........

[gmw]

Interest vid', thanks for posting. Actually I think he's probably technically correct. Dedicated ereaders are almost certainly doomed, but it's not going to happen this year.

Why "almost certainly"? For the same reason so few own a dedicated mobile telephone any more - you just can't buy them. Now you can only by a combined phone/camera/video/mp3-player/reader/internet-browser/text-sender/alarm-clock/what-did-I-miss. All I want is a mobile phone, but I can't buy one.

Eventually technology will overtake dedicated ereaders. I think we probably have a few years left of "effectively" dedicated devices, but already some are starting to look more like thin-client computers (anything with an internet browser sufficiently capable is able to be a thin-client computer) than they are simple ereaders.

[GA Russell]

Originally Posted by gmw

Why "almost certainly"? For the same reason so few own a dedicated mobile telephone any more - you just can't buy them.

That's a concern of mine as well. I can see a time when, rather than allowing the basic model to go down in price, the manufacturers will maintain the price point by offering only fancier devices.

[silasgreenback]

Cooley says:

"A tablet is not a perfect reader, but we're also not a nation of bookworms either. For most of us, the tablet is going to be good enough, especially since our real love is video and the web."

Hope he's wrong, but as far as the U.S. is concerned, those two sentences couldn't be more correct. In my town, everyone's forgotten the rule about being quiet at the library...I guess it becomes trivial when 3/4 of the people there only show up to check out "Sex and the City" and watch Youtube.

[gollu]

CNET is the last place where I'd look for technical oracles. The amount of bs I've read there is out of proportion to the real "news". Ereader are here to stay at least for the next 5 years and when the technology wears off, the new thing will be specifically designed for book as well. It may be tablet, but it'd be a reader-friendly tablet, not a $600 enormous idevice.

[kacir]

Originally Posted by gmw

All I want is a mobile phone, but I can't buy one.

Buy a "senior" model. Very popular in my corner of the world.
Very simple phone, large letters on Black and White display, large buttons with huge numbers, two dedicated buttons for direct entry of two preprogrammed numbers, big "PANIC" button at the back (dials several numbers in sequence and then tries to send an SMS when engaged). Keyboard is locked by a comfortable sliding button (no more fiddling with an arcane combination of buttons to switch on the keyboard)

It still has an alarm and radio. Sorry ... ;-)
But ... my aunt can perfectly use ALL the features it provides. And she is a textbook example of a "non-technical-user".

Or buy Motorola MotoFone F3
The one and only mobile phone with simple segment e-ink display. Dirt cheap here.

[kacir]

Originally Posted by MrsJoseph

CNET predicts that dedicated ereaders are a doomed technology and they will soon be over taken by tablets. "Readers, they're a niche for life."

And here I was thinking of buying a Sony PRS-950.

Well, technically, PRS-950 isn't a dedicated reader. It is a combination or e-book reader and Internet browsing device.
... not that I consider CNET to be authority on technical progress ...

[K-Thom]

I remember their prediction for doomed technology from 8950 B.C.:

1. Stone Tablets
2. Cave paintings
3. Wireless shouting
4. Mobile drums for drum telegraphy
5. Dugout canoes without GPS

So, yeah, they may be right. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

[astra]

Originally Posted by MrsJoseph

CNET predicts that dedicated ereaders are a doomed technology and they will soon be over taken by tablets. "Readers, they're a niche for life."

And here I was thinking of buying a Sony PRS-950.

Maybe they are right.
I am useless in trying to predict anything. Despite all the people who are here and read a lot, in real life people read less and less.

However, one thing does spark my curiosity. On what facts they base their prediction and what time scale they use when they say it? I mean will the dedicated ebook readers die off in 3 years? 5? 27?
If it is 3 or 5 years, I would be a bit surprised considering that Sony, Sony! ran out of screens? It contradicts "the lack of interest in dedicated ebook readers" theory.
If it is in 10 years, quite possible. When technology will be sufficiently advanced to have a screen technology with eInk's benefits (no eye strain and low power consumption) but as capable as LCDs for other things, I do believe dedicated ebook readers will disappear.

[eriksnoopy]

How many of you have dedicated e-readers?? my sony does more then just display text.. And "dedicated" e-readers will never dissapear, the prices might go low, the technology will progress.. but untill we have tablets with e-ink, mirasole, or such, no tablet is going to be superior to an e-reader btw, i wouldnt be surprised that by the time the second gen colour ereaders come out, they wont be short of tablets

[gmw]

Originally Posted by kacir

Buy a "senior" model. Very popular in my corner of the world. ...

You don't mention where your corner of the world is. In my corner the only service (realistically) available is the Telstra "NextG" service for which telephone selections (that are recommended for remote regions) have been very limited. (The selection has expanded slightly in the years since I got the phone we are currently using.)

However I wonder if your post was intended to be amusing, that only seniors could want just-a-telephone. In your amusement it seems you may have missed my central point, that dedicated ereaders are probably doomed - regardless of those that may want just-a-reader - because eventually simple/dedicated readers wont be available. Eventually they will be incorporated into another device or vise-versa. Some telephones are already being used as readers, as are tablets. It may be that our 6" and 7" format readers will simply become portable tablets, the new Sony devices are really not that far off that now, just give them a colour screen. I see your comment that some models are already internet browsers, but they don't have sufficient capability to be treated as a tablet yet. I wonder if the various shortages are because manufacturers don't want to order too far in advance so they are best placed for the next steps that are almost certainly coming.