Forrester Analyst: eReaders *and* Tablets to thrive

[fjtorres]

http://paidcontent.org/article/419-t...ers-or-amazon/

quick tease here—more people want to buy an eReader of any kind than want to buy an iPad this year though the iPad has more likely buyers than any one single eReader. However, by the time we enter 2012, tablet PCs like the iPad will surpass eReaders. At that point, a healthy 15.5 million adults in the US will own an eReader. And the number will continue to climb, though slowly compared to tablet PC growth. By 2015, we see the eReader market starting to cap at just under 30 million US adults. That’s nearly all the people who read 2+ books a month.

At that point, many bargain eReaders will cost just $49 and some of the best will cost only $99—a price point we believe some Amazon competitors may toy with as soon as this holiday season, especially for bare bones models like the Sony Pocket Reader. One reason that prices will be so low is that by 2015, tablet PCs will compete more directly with high-end eReaders—they’ll have reflective displays capable of color at very low power consumption rates. This will make the distinction between high-end eReaders and low-end tablets nonexistent.

[Kali Yuga]

Funny, some folks around here *cough* have been saying similar things for a few months now....

One thing I'm curious about -- aside from getting hard numbers from Amazon, which will never happen -- is how Sony is holding up these days.

[SensualPoet]

At that point, many bargain eReaders will cost just $49 and some of the best will cost only $99—a price point we believe some Amazon competitors may toy with as soon as this holiday season, especially for bare bones models like the Sony Pocket Reader.

And what will folks read on these $49 readers? This assumes that ePub is going to pull a rabbit out of its hat and suddenly become the format of choice for the majority of ebook buyers. But Amazon doesn't market ePub eBooks. Consumers will buy the ereader that delivers them the content they want ... cheap and stripped down without useful features (like always on connectedness or Kindle content) won't cut it.

If the target audience is the folks who read 2+ books a month -- apparently that's 30 million Americans -- the lure of a non-Kindle, no feature reader at $49 will not be as compelling as a fully integrated platform of which a Kindle 2i is just one element -- even at a higher price. It's not like Kindle eReaders are $2,000.

I am not convinced the conclusions of this analyst are entirely aligned with what consumers really want. He's pushing the tablet line -- which will no doubt be successful -- without paying attention that many, many households are quite content to have the right tool for the right job. Cameras on phones are not displacing pocket digital cameras or elaborate digital SLRs. Microwaves have not displaced toaster ovens or stand-alone ovens. Netbooks, laptops and desktops happily co-exist. The same will be true of dedicated, full featured ereaders.