N.Y. Times Article on Book Piracy

[pwjone1]

DRM is a stage I think we'll have to go through, until the eBooks formats kind of standardize and eBook readers become cheaper and more available. I'm going through the deja-vu of the whole music thing. Because the music companies were so afraid digital and kids pirating things, they didn't really standardize and support Apple and others, who were willing to do the DRM for them, this then led to all sorts of other approaches like Napster, whole thing got out of control, only reigned in more recently. The basics, of eBooks, then are:

1. All titles need to be on eBook
2. They must be readily available and downloadable
3. They (eventually) won't need DRM

Same as when iTunes/iPod went DRM-less. But only after the first two are in place and well established, can 3. happen. This will all take some time. But hopefully, the publishers will realize the errors in the music industry historical approaches, and get behind eBooks, instead of fighting it, which will lead to a black-market of some sort. You either take control of your own destiny, or others will.

[TadW]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

Of course they're concerned; that's why they support DRM.

... which they must know as well as we do that it doesn't do anything to prevent privacy.

[zerospinboson]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

http://www.publishersweekly.com/arti...dustryid=47152



That's dollar volume, though; unit sales are declining more. And of course that's not inflation-adjusted.

... based on figures from 13 reporting companies and showed a 21% decline in 2008, due in part to the big sales of the audio version of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows in 2007.
The AAP estimates that industry sales grew at a 1.6% compound annual growth rate in the 2002–2008 period. During that span, the mass market paperback and the book club/mail order segments were the only ones to have a drop in sales.

Also, there's a recession going on. But yes, I blame piracy too.

[sirbruce]

Way to selectively quote. That 21% decline was just for the audio segment. To reiterate, sales were down last year, primarily in hardback, mass market paperback, and book club/mail order. Trade paperbacks showed a modest increase (probably from people buying them instead of hardbacks). That somewhat contradicts your earlier summation that primarily only hardback sales were down, and that paperback sales made up for it.

I actually don't think ebook piracy has much to do with the book industry's problems over the past decade. Embracing ebooks would help stop the bleeding, though, and find new sources of revenue. Long-term, literary reading must be re-emphasized in our education system.

[wallcraft]

The latest numbers from the Amazon DX introduction (Amazon Kindle DX product launch, May 6th 2009 in N?YC ) are startling: when there is a Kindle version of a book 35% of its sales, on average, are ebooks. I think this must be driven by $9.99 bestsellers. I don't know if this is a recession effect, or simply an ebook effect.

[Sweetpea]

I love "what-if" stories, so, here goes...

What if tomorrow all books would be available in electronic format? That is, every new release, but also every book from the backlist?

How much would the book sales profit from this? (so, not only counting pbooks, but ebooks too).


Another what-if.

What if somebody manages to kill off all illegal books on the darknet, and you wouldn't be able to share those anymore either? (you won't lose the ones you already may have)

Same question: how much would the book sales profit from this?


Personally, I think the first scenario will have the biggest impact. I personally don't feel like buying a paper book unless I really like that book. Either because it's just a beautiful book (visible) and looks awesome in the bookcase or it's just such an awesome book you just must have it in your visible library.

While I have bought books electronically that I might not even have looked at if I had gone to a physical store.

[zerospinboson]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

Way to selectively quote. That 21% decline was just for the audio segment. To reiterate, sales were down last year, primarily in hardback, mass market paperback, and book club/mail order. Trade paperbacks showed a modest increase (probably from people buying them instead of hardbacks). That somewhat contradicts your earlier summation that primarily only hardback sales were down, and that paperback sales made up for it.

It's hardly my fault the article itself is so selective in what it says. The point wasn't audiobooks, though, the point was "one-time increase because of blockbuster book hitting the stores". Doesn't matter if it was an audio version or a paper one, because both vary with demand.

I actually don't think ebook piracy has much to do with the book industry's problems over the past decade. Embracing ebooks would help stop the bleeding, though, and find new sources of revenue. Long-term, literary reading must be re-emphasized in our education system.

What problem are you talking about, though? as my second quote says, compound annual growth for the last decade was still positive, the slump in 2008 notwithstanding. Which was my point. 2008 is a year in "recession", i.e., reduced sales overall. So why would the book market be different?: (article came out today)

Retailers have absorbed the lessons of a ruinous holiday season. Caught with shelves full of unsold merchandise, they slashed prices to draw in shoppers. But the strategy was unsustainable: It decimated profits and resulted in massive layoffs, killing off a number of chains, including Circuit City. Serving recession-era shoppers, retailers realized, would require a long-term strategy featuring lower prices.
"What we have is retailers reacting to a very low-appetite consumer and a consumer that has been now taught to wait," said Michael Silverstein, senior partner at Boston Consulting Group.

Also, "Reading" has been deemphasized for decades, and revenues were still going up. Why was that? Were they just raising prices to compensate, thus forcing those who still read to make up for the difference and more, or because the problem isn't quite as bad as is being made out?

[djgreedo]

So sales are slightly down?

There's a global recession, though I don't know how much that factors into the figures mentioned. Do those figures take into account recent months?

What about reading declining in general? I read a lot of material online (news, articles, etc.), thus spending time reading during which I might have read more books had I not had easy access to the Internet. It's now normal for people to have computers, game consoles, and huge TVs/DVD players that might take up more of peoples' leisure time.

What about the lack of availability of books? Since getting my ebook reader I don't want to buy paper books any more, so I have passed on buying quite a few books because they were not available as ebooks or had DRM.

I spent AU$500 on a reader this year, which is probably more than I've spent on books in the last several years combined. Would I have bought more books if I hadn't spent so much money on a reader?

When are these publishers going to realise that they can't stop piracy? They may as well work out how to make products that people will buy and find ways to turn piracy to their advantage (as Cory Doctorow has done - I've read some of his free stuff and I will almost certainly buy more of his writings in the near future...when I get through my current 'to read' list).

[wallcraft]

Originally Posted by Sweetpea

I really think that if content is available, in electronic format, with a decent price, less people would download from the darknet.

Yes. The way Jerry Pournelle puts this is that he does not care if there are darknet copies of his books so long as a Googgle search brings up the legal ebook first. You have to have a legal ebook version for this to work, and anything else is futile. I don't download from the darknet, but I also don't buy physical books any more. There are now more than a million EInk Readers out there, and most of them are owned by readers of many books a year. I single out EInk, because these are dedicated reading devices. There are hundreds of millions of other devices that could be used for ebook reading.

[wallcraft]

Originally Posted by Sweetpea

What if tomorrow all books would be available in electronic format? That is, every new release, but also every book from the backlist?

The backlist is key - from an Amazon brief (Jerry Pournelle on the Kindle DX):

First, the really positive effect of Kindle on sales has been in backlist, and particularly backlist sales of previous books in a series. People read the latest book of a series, or the latest book from an author, and decide that they want some of the previous work. If those works exist for the Kindle, the sales are a lot more likely than if they only exist in paper.

[djgreedo]

Originally Posted by Sweetpea

While I have bought books electronically that I might not even have looked at if I had gone to a physical store.

Me too. I've bought a boatload of books and short stories/articles from Fictionwise because there is no barrier to buying something that looks interesting. I don't have to line up in a book store waiting for an incompetent 15-year-old cashier to hurry up. The relatively low price makes an impulse purchase easy. The fact that within a minute of finding a book I can be reading it is great.

And for the seller/author I don't have any chance to change my mind before handing over my money! The same goes for any digital media. I wonder how many people buy a song off iTunes for a dollar when they've heard it once or twice...then got sick of it a few days later. If they had to wait a few days to buy the song on CD they might get tired of it before they buy it.

[moz]

John Scalzi had a bit of a go at some of these attitudes the other day. He broadly agrees with Pournelle - if you are active on the web or at least easy to find, even free ebooks are a useful part of your promotional antics. He's pretty scathing of DRM and piracy panics, with the usual attitude - if you give people a reason to buy they will combined with his usual "you pay me, I write" attitude. (To which I say "well, duuuh" and hand over my credit card details ).

[Jack Tingle]

Originally Posted by Boston

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/12/te...l.html?_r=1&hp
{snip}
“It’s exponentially up,” said David Young, chief executive of Hachette Book Group, whose Little, Brown division publishes the “Twilight” series by Stephenie Meyer, a favorite among digital pirates. “Our legal department is spending an ever-increasing time policing sites where copyrighted material is being presented.”

John Wiley & Sons, a textbook publisher that also issues the “Dummies” series, employs three full-time staff members to trawl for unauthorized copies. Gary M. Rinck, general counsel, said that in the last month, the company had sent notices on more than 5,000 titles — five times more than a year ago — asking various sites to take down digital versions of Wiley’s books.

“It’s a game of Whac-a-Mole,” said Russell Davis, an author and president of the Science Fiction and Fantasy Writers of America, a trade association that helps authors pursue digital pirates. “You knock one down and five more spring up.”
{snip}

The heart of the real complaint is the above. For centuries, copyright was self-enforcing, since copying a book was expensive and printing a press run was cheap. Pirates had to be well-organized groups of people with a fixed base of operations and distributors. You could get your hands on them if you could find them.

Now copying is cheap and press runs are expensive. Some Funion eater in a tastelessly decorated basement can copy an entire novel with minimal equipment.

{cue publisher whine} "I now have to spend money enforcing my rights."

Rights require effort if you're to keep them. Harlan Ellison, bless his shriveled little soul, figured out the best defense is a good offense. I wouldn't illegally copy one of his books.

Regards,
Jack Tingle

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by zerospinboson

It's hardly my fault the article itself is so selective in what it says. The point wasn't audiobooks, though, the point was "one-time increase because of blockbuster book hitting the stores". Doesn't matter if it was an audio version or a paper one, because both vary with demand.

The point was that was a one-time increase in *audiobooks*, resulting in a larger than usual decline this year. That in no way obviates the decline in *other* books. The article wasn't selective; you cut off the first part of the sentence that made this clear. You made it seem like there was a 21% decline in ALL books in 2008, but that this was because of a Harry Potter *audiobook* the year before.

Originally Posted by zerospinboson

What problem are you talking about, though? as my second quote says, compound annual growth for the last decade was still positive, the slump in 2008 notwithstanding.

The problem that book sales were down once you adjusted for inflation. The AAP estimates that industry sales grew at a 1.6% compound annual growth rate in the 2002–2008 period. But in that same period inflation was 2.8% or so annually. So while they sold $100 worth of books in 2002 and $110 worth of books in 2008, that $110 is only worth $93 in 2002 terms. (Someone check my math on this.) You can throw out last year's sharper decline due to recession if you want; book sales are still flat at best over the past decade.

Originally Posted by zerospinboson

Also, "Reading" has been deemphasized for decades, and revenues were still going up. Why was that? Were they just raising prices to compensate, thus forcing those who still read to make up for the difference and more, or because the problem isn't quite as bad as is being made out?

No, they were raising prices to compensate for inflation, and the increased revenues still means at best the industry has been stagnant for a decade if not in outright decline.

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by djgreedo

So sales are slightly down?

There's a global recession, though I don't know how much that factors into the figures mentioned. Do those figures take into account recent months?

Sales have been "slightly down" for a decade once you adjust for inflation (see above). The recession certainly made it worse last year, but this has been an ongoing problem since the late 1990s.

Originally Posted by djgreedo

What about reading declining in general?

I agree this is a large part of it, but that doesn't help the publishing industry unless they embrace ebooks and get people used to reading them on their gadgets instead of video, websites, blogs, etc.

Bruce