If big 4 (6?) are so scared of Amazon why don't they ...

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

Is it not equally possible that some are grossly over-estimating the value provided? Surely it's mostly a subjective perspective issue?

It's not all that subjective.
There is publicly available data on the open market cost of publishing services that indicates their value does not come even close to 85% of life of copyright earnings. Especially with the decline is B&M distribution.

The only reason tradpub was ever able to enforce their predatory contracts was their stranglehold on distribution.

Without that stranglehold, there is no justification for the traditionalist revenue distribution regime.

Which is what renders the whole "publishers vs Amazon" sideshow such a mockable farce. All the attention and handwringing over the evil things Amazon might, possibly, someday do, while papering over the inexcusable things that have been going on for decades now. Things that are driving both veteran authors and newcomers to selfpub.

It's not Amazon they should be fretting over; it is the new authors who are no longer querying agents or submitting to publishers that they should be fretting over. Because odds are the next Stephen King or Nora Roberts, when they emerge, is going to laugh them off the premises when they come sniffing around.

[Phogg]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Some of you guys really do grossly underestimate the value that publisher provide authors and for that matter, readers. Perhaps another business model will pop up and someone will provide the same services that a publisher does, but I'm pretty sure it's not going to be Amazon. They don't even bother to do quality control on their own books database.

I am a reader.
I buy a lot of indie books.
Most of them are well edited, and as I participate in kickstarter fundraisers for the books often I can say that editing and cover art can be had for $1,500 or less. Jim Zoeteway has a kickstarter for the next two Legion Of Nothing novels now.

I have seen a lot of SF series never appreciably marketed over the decades. I would go to special order something and a bookseller tied directly to the publishers couldn't get it, so don't even try to go there.

Short answer: no, we are not underestimating anything.

[darryl]

The BWM publishers are all about print books, not ebooks. One of the reasons they missed the boat on ebooks and delivered the initiative to Amazon on a silver platter is that they have been so fixated on preserving their profitable print book oligopoly. To have any chance of succeeding against Amazon at selling ebooks they would have to abandon this mindset. No windowing. Cheaper pricing. Damaging their own Print Book sales in favour of ebooks. And even then, they are a long way behind. And, i suggest, as others already have, that they lack the expertise and the entrepreneurial spirit to succeed against Amazon. Maybe Apple, Google or even Microsoft may be prepared to partner with them, in which case they may at least manage to provide some competition to Amazon. Once the car comes along the demand for buggies goes way down.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by darryl

Maybe Apple, Google or even Microsoft may be prepared to partner with them,

Microsoft tried.
Fourteen years ago, they tried.
They provided the software, the DRM, the servers, retail partners, hardware partners, even a website...
For over a decade they tried.
They eventually gave up.

You can't help those unwilling to help themselves.

[fjtorres]

Value propositions aren't eternal.
They change over time, often very fast...overnight even.

Ask Sony, the kings of CRT TVs for several decades who were certain their expertise in analog video was relevant in the age of digital video. Who invested in all forms of TV display--Plasma, DLP, rear projection LCD, CRT--except flat panel LCD, the one technology that took over the living room. Because it turned out people valued cheap, thin, and bright a lot more than color purity, accuracy and, ahem, bulk...

Or look to home ownership, where every few decades the previously unquestioned value proposition of renting vs owning gets totally overturned, within just a few years, by external forces.

Over the past 50 years book distribution and retailing has seen four major revolutions--mall chain stores, superstore chains, online stores, and ebooks--yet tradpub's practices and terms have changed little if any. In fact, the only noticeable change in royalty rates has been in ebooks that used to be considered subsidiary rights with 50% royalty, that got *cut* down to 25% of net or roughly 12-17% of retail, the same as print. In all that time, all the savings from consolidation, computerization, retailer warehousing, etc have flowed solely to the publisher and occasionally the retailer (if they have the muscle to force the publishers to cough up bigger discounts) but practically nothing to the majority of tradpub authors.

A reckoning has been long overdue.
And it is here now.

The value proposition has changed:

In a world where 25% of book revenues are from ebooks and 50% are from online sales what is the value of front table payola for a handful of titles? High if you're James Patterson, zero if you're any of the hundreds of thousands of authors whose books don't get payola support.

What is the value of spine-out stocking on a shelf in 500 superstores that barely draw enough traffic to breakeven by turning over more and more floor space to trinkets and toys and ever less to non-blockbuster selling books?

What is the value of three months distribution to a few hundred indie bookstores in an age of near-permanent online stocking? In a world where the BPHs alone are putting out 25-30,000 titles a year and all tradpub puts out hundreds of thousands, few indie stores can carry even a fraction of the titles in print.

Most of the print book industry's revenues are tied to the big name authors and the big name authors fortunes are tied to print. Their books are carried at B&M forever. Midlist authors, veterans and newcomers, are lucky to get three months of spine out exposure. After that it is the limbo of "special order".

Typical author advances run in the low four figures and advances in the hundreds of dollars are not unheard of. For this, authors are expected to give up a century of copyright control and agree to onerous delays and clauses?

The value proposition for the big name legacy authors is juicy--they get millions in upfront cash, just like the politicians--but the vast majority of tradpub authors get scraps. If they get anything at all, since the system denies access to 99% of all writers to start with.

Small wonder Patterson has no shortage of willing co-writers to do work for hire filling out his outlines.

Some of the smaller players operate under slightly different, more author-friendly rules but realistically they only encompass a tiny fraction of the titles released in a given year.

That is the value proposition that tradpub offers.

The value proposition of tradpub has for decades been almost exclusively tied to their cartel-like control of print distribution. To the extent that that control withers away, so does their value to authors. And once the authors walk away, so does their value to readers.

The smiley curve is a clear indication of what is happening to tradpub's value proposition. And what will continue to happen.

A third of all ebooks at Amazon are indie. 20% of the top sellers, accounting for as many sales as the BPHs and, on average, twice as many sales as non-BPH tradpubs. And, from the author's point of view: more money to them.

Tradpub takes more money out of readers pockets yet delivers less, on a book by book basis, to the authors. That is untenable.

The storm isn't just coming: it is right on the doorstep.

The world has changed but tradpub hasn't.
Look beyond the massive sales of the aging bestsellers to the younger authors, the ones with maybe two or three titles to their name. How are those folks doing?

Who is misvalueing what? My money is on the tradpub insiders, trapped in the Manhattan echo chamber.

It all starts with the authors and, absent big change on their side of the tradpub chain, no amount of fighting Amazon or Apple or Google is going to change the curve.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

Is it not equally possible that some are grossly over-estimating the value provided? Surely it's mostly a subjective perspective issue?

I would say that it's possible to overestimate if one's position is that _all_ authors require the support of a major publisher. On the flip side, it's a rare author who doesn't benefit from a competent editorial staff and a competent publicity campaign. Is it possible that some independents will step up and provide those services to authors? Sure, I fully expect they will. On the other hand, as is obvious by watching how the quality of various big name authors works degrade as they become major properties, many authors simply won't listen to editors if not forced to.

As far as publicity goes, I think that a book isn't going to be successful unless there is some level of publicity about it. The books that do well based purely on word of mouth are few and far between.

The final service that a publisher provides is a filter to remove the 80-90 percent of great American novels that are utter drek. This is the service that publishers provide the reading public.

Does that mean that publishers have to be mega-corporations? No, especially as ebooks and small print runs become more and more viable as a business model. But I think that it's fair to say that the model of throwing thousands of unedited books into a heap and letting the readers dig throw the pile to find books that they like isn't going to be a long term success.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by Phogg

I am a reader.
I buy a lot of indie books.
Most of them are well edited, and as I participate in kickstarter fundraisers for the books often I can say that editing and cover art can be had for $1,500 or less. Jim Zoeteway has a kickstarter for the next two Legion Of Nothing novels now.

I have seen a lot of SF series never appreciably marketed over the decades. I would go to special order something and a bookseller tied directly to the publishers couldn't get it, so don't even try to go there.

Short answer: no, we are not underestimating anything.

I'm a reader, and have tried to wade through the piles of indie books and found most to be absolute drek. There, I call your personal experience as a data point with my own.

Sure I've read SF&F series that were not well marketed as well. I've never understood why Brian Daley's books were not better received.

It's nice that the occasional writer can succeed without publishers, though I will point out that Zoeteway does have a publisher, 1889 Labs.

But every rule has exceptions. What is the percentage of successful writers who don't have publishers? As a guess, well under 1 percent.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by darryl

The BWM publishers are all about print books, not ebooks. One of the reasons they missed the boat on ebooks and delivered the initiative to Amazon on a silver platter is that they have been so fixated on preserving their profitable print book oligopoly. To have any chance of succeeding against Amazon at selling ebooks they would have to abandon this mindset. No windowing. Cheaper pricing. Damaging their own Print Book sales in favour of ebooks. And even then, they are a long way behind. And, i suggest, as others already have, that they lack the expertise and the entrepreneurial spirit to succeed against Amazon. Maybe Apple, Google or even Microsoft may be prepared to partner with them, in which case they may at least manage to provide some competition to Amazon. Once the car comes along the demand for buggies goes way down.

Ultimately, for an ebook store to succeed, they need to be able to be a one stop shop that carries all the ebooks and supports all platforms. You have to have the infrastructure to support the story, the contracts with the various publishers to stock the store and the technical means to deliver content to a customer's ebook reader without the customer having to jump through hoops. Then you have to have enough cash on hand to build enough of a customer base, which may take a few years. That's a tough row to hoe.

Apple currently appears to be happy supporting the 90 percent of readers who are mostly interested in the best sellers.

[crossi]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

I would say that it's possible to overestimate if one's position is that _all_ authors require the support of a major publisher. On the flip side, it's a rare author who doesn't benefit from a competent editorial staff and a competent publicity campaign. Is it possible that some independents will step up and provide those services to authors? Sure, I fully expect they will. On the other hand, as is obvious by watching how the quality of various big name authors works degrade as they become major properties, many authors simply won't listen to editors if not forced to.

As far as publicity goes, I think that a book isn't going to be successful unless there is some level of publicity about it. The books that do well based purely on word of mouth are few and far between.

The final service that a publisher provides is a filter to remove the 80-90 percent of great American novels that are utter drek. This is the service that publishers provide the reading public.

Does that mean that publishers have to be mega-corporations? No, especially as ebooks and small print runs become more and more viable as a business model. But I think that it's fair to say that the model of throwing thousands of unedited books into a heap and letting the readers dig throw the pile to find books that they like isn't going to be a long term success.

There are other options than only relying on BPHs pick books or just expecting readers to sort through thousands of books themselves. What about magazines that provide a brief synopsis and rating of books being published that month? Like Romantic Times, or Locus Magazine? They usually focus on particular genres and in those magazines there are particular reviewer whose tastes usually match mine. In each edition there are usually enough recommended books to fill my needs. Genre specific magazines and websites for books could easily fill that role of the publisher and since there could be a lot more of them than publishers readers could have more choice in finding ones whose tastes match their own.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by crossi

There are other options than only relying on BPHs pick books or just expecting readers to sort through thousands of books themselves. What about magazines that provide a brief synopsis and rating of books being published that month? Like Romantic Times, or Locus Magazine? They usually focus on particular genres and in those magazines there are particular reviewer whose tastes usually match mine. In each edition there are usually enough recommended books to fill my needs. Genre specific magazines and websites for books could easily fill that role of the publisher and since there could be a lot more of them than publishers readers could have more choice in finding ones whose tastes match their own.

Contrary to popular myth, BPHs don't select manuscripts for quality. (Just ask Snooki or a zillion politicians) They select them for sales potential, preferably "proven" sales potential.

And, as you point out, readers know exactly how to find the books they like.

The only people who worry about how others will find the "right" books is the people concerned with telling people what they are supposed to like.

Like these folks:
http://www.newyorker.com/culture/cul...ackson-problem

And a counter:
http://www.theatlantic.com/education...assics/381959/

Whether it be YA or Indies being badmouthed, the underlying argument is the same:
People should not be allowed to choose their own reading. They should only read what the establishment decides is "good".

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Contrary to popular myth, BPHs don't select manuscripts for quality. (Just ask Snooki or a zillion politicians) They select them for sales potential, preferably "proven" sales potential.

And, as you point out, readers know exactly how to find the books they like.

The only people who worry about how others will find the "right" books is the people concerned with telling people what they are supposed to like.

Like these folks:
http://www.newyorker.com/culture/cul...ackson-problem

And a counter:
http://www.theatlantic.com/education...assics/381959/

Whether it be YA or Indies being badmouthed, the underlying argument is the same:
People should not be allowed to choose their own reading. They should only read what the establishment decides is "good".

Strawman alert, strawman alert! Gee, why is it that some absolutely have to argue against something that is not being said? Is it because their case doesn't stand on it's own? I guess my comment about a pile of thousands of unedited books must have hit a sore spot.

For those who might be deceived by this strawman attack, the case for publishers is that someone actually reads the manuscript and filters out the drek, not that publishers enforce some sort of secret establishment standard. Sure, it's based on what they think will sell. Isn't that what most people want, books that they actually might want to read? Geeze.

[murg]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Ultimately, for an ebook store to succeed, they need to be able to be a one stop shop that carries all the ebooks and supports all platforms.

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Apple currently appears to be happy supporting the 90 percent of readers who are mostly interested in the best sellers.

Aren't these contradictory statements?

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by crossi

There are other options than only relying on BPHs pick books or just expecting readers to sort through thousands of books themselves. What about magazines that provide a brief synopsis and rating of books being published that month? Like Romantic Times, or Locus Magazine? They usually focus on particular genres and in those magazines there are particular reviewer whose tastes usually match mine. In each edition there are usually enough recommended books to fill my needs. Genre specific magazines and websites for books could easily fill that role of the publisher and since there could be a lot more of them than publishers readers could have more choice in finding ones whose tastes match their own.

Sure, that's an option also and one that I think we will see come about, i.e. a return of the book review/newsletter. I'm sure that someone will come out with a this month in SF&F, going over the new books, backlist coming out in ebooks, and for that matter indies, complete with links to where you can buy it. If someone comes up with a good website or news letter that does this, then I certainly will be a customer. Back in the 80's and 90's there was a pretty good SF&F newsletter that provided that service, if I recall correctly.

I really fully expect there to continue to be a robust business of indie authors, and established authors to go the non publisher route. Just like there was a robust fanfic movement well before Amazon started up their ebook store, much less added indies to their store. However, I don't expect it to take the place of, or for that matter even compete with the service that publishers provide.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by murg

Aren't these contradictory statements?

Not really. Apple's ebook model is different than an independent ebooks store that would compete with Amazon. Apple's model is for the casual ebook reader who has an iPad. They certainly aren't aggressively going after Amazon. Some of that may be because they think that Amazon will just whistle up the DOJ again to go after Apple, some may be that Apple has simply decided that isn't where they want to put their effort. Hard to say.

[DiapDealer]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

I guess my comment about a pile of thousands of unedited books must have hit a sore spot.

The "pile of thousands of unedited books" mantra is a classic strawman. It's only relevant to readers who are are in the habit of buying unknown books/authors to read at random (utterly spin-the-wheel random). What percentage does that represent? Most readers usually have a pretty good idea they're going to like a book before they buy it. Not because of how it was published, but because a) they already know/like the author; or b) people have been talking about the book. The huge pile of dreck—that no one ever has to wade into if they don't want to—just isn't all that relevant.

The fact of the matter is: if you choose books to buy blindly, you're running the risk of wasting your money on a book that—regardless of how well it's edited—you may not like. That's true whether you buy tradpub or indie. And I for one, don't really consider spending my money on a beautifully edited book I didn't like, a win.