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09-17-2011, 11:42 PM | #16 | |
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I'm speaking of several years from now, when every family will have a tablet as most have computers today. Lee |
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09-18-2011, 12:16 AM | #17 | |
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You know what's been around for 500 years or so and hasn't been surpassed in quality by a digital version? The violin. There's a reason classical musicians don't use computerized violins, and it's not just because of tradition; it's because we have not yet invented anything better. No artificial recreation has been able to match the harmonic qualities of a Stradivarius. They've actually tried, and can't. Some human inventions are so well executed that they stand the test of centuries. I rant. Last edited by OtterBooks; 09-18-2011 at 12:31 AM. |
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09-18-2011, 01:40 AM | #18 |
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I see several flaws in this business model:
1. Advertising supported entertainment only works when the end user can't skip the advertising. The demise of television started when home VCRs came on the market, and people could fast forward. Cable, initially without ads, accelerated it. DVRs today continue the destruction of the ad supported TV model. Book readers are far too accustomed to no having to put up with ads to start doing so. The internet has lowered the barriers to entry to the market to the point where a homeless bum could become the next Stephen King, through his local library's computer. There will always be ad free books available; the market cannot possibly be constricted to prevent this. And the big publishers will find that, while readers are not their customers, advertisers are, advertisers will not pay to advertise in books nobody will read. 2. While cloud services have obvious advantages for content sellers, they don't seem to be paying attention to the fact that they are a distinct disadvantage to consumers. Technology cannot make them anywhere near as realiable, overall, as downloading a copy to your own computer/reader/smart phone. And again, with the non-existent barriers to entry to the market, there will always be books available for straight sale/download purchase. The market will gravitate towards that. 3. Anything that can reasonably be called a tablet will be significantly more expensive to manufacture than an eink book reader. It will have to sell for more (50%-100% more, at the moment, if the nook/nook color/nook STR if any indication). That will put the tables in to a different price bracket than the eink devices, and for people who buy books, there is no advantage to the tablet format. 4. People who buy books aren't interested in multimedia extravaganzas. We've had multimedia publishing for 15+ years; it's called the World Wide Web. And, about 99.999999% of the time, the more multimedia it is, the more thoroughly it sucks. It is not a replacement for books, and will not kill the market for books. And, last but not least, this is not about "personalizing and tailoring" books to the reader, it's about personalizing and tailoring advertising to the individual reader. And while that might actually be of benefit to the consumer, lying about it won't fly. If it's a medium people won't tolerate advertising in to begin with, it cannot be personalized enough to make to acceptable. I forsee a period in the near future where I, personally, will be reading a lot more stuff from Project Gutenburg, and a lot less new stuff. |
09-18-2011, 02:12 AM | #19 |
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I've heard tablets will eventually replace all portable devices such as, ebooks, phones and computers and we'll all be surfing, reading, calling on our tablets on the cloud. I see at least 3 problems with that:
Size. An all purpose cloud connected tablet would be too big if used as a reader for me. Yet still too small to be used as my main computer, while I find it cute to see people surfing on their I-pad sized tablets, I don't like such a small screen to display web pages (as my main computer I mean). I won't even get into the right size debate when used as a phone. Luminosity. To make it short, If I liked to read on a computer type of screen, I'd have the I-pad. I love e-ink because it is easy on the eyes to use for hours on end. Portability. Again a decent size for it to be called one's main computer would make it ipso facto not as portal as an e-reader or a phone. While we have some portability with our laptops, we don't carry them around everywhere as easily as we do our phones, do we. For those reasons I don't think that e-books will come to a generational end any time soon. They will evolve yes but the fact that we need something that fits in our pocket will not change IMO. |
09-18-2011, 04:45 AM | #20 | |||
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The difference is, Magazines and the like are more structured to allow for ads, since they have breaks in the flow. Pop in an ad between articles. You could argue putting them in between chapters, but people would balk at that because it removes them even more from the immersion (which for many people, immersion is more difficult with reading than it is with more visual forms, such as tv, movies, and comics). Also, people complain when things they're used to having be ad free now has ads. Even if they have ads normally, if people are paying a premium, they expect an ad free environment (look at how many people complain about ads on Hulu Plus). |
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09-18-2011, 08:43 AM | #21 | |
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The Kindle DX is bigger (better screen real estate for magazines, newspapers, layouts inn general) but at the cost of weight and esp. cost. When the DX was $389 and Kindle 2 was $259 the 50% price gap already shut down part of the interest. When the Kobo introduced the $150 price point and Kindle and Nook fell over themselves first to $199 and then $149, $139 and now $114 ... the DX fate was sealed. If your time horizon is "several years" it's really impossible to say since technology moves so quickly. And anyway, eink was ultimately successful not for the techology and price, which was led by Sony, but by Amazon which created the content infrastructure. It's hard to imagine that tablets won't be ubiquitous in ever home by then. But if B&W eink devices are $29 .... |
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09-18-2011, 09:21 AM | #22 | |
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There will always be a new generation who hasn't learned the hard way about data security. They always seemed so shocked when (upon data they paid good money for ceasing to be) they receive ridicule and "I told you so"s instead of sympathy. |
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09-18-2011, 10:28 AM | #23 |
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Visual representations of words are only a transitional knowledge transference device. Soon, the hive mind will render them obsolete. Resistance is futile.
(What?! It's just as relevant as the lawyer's opinion from the article ) |
09-18-2011, 10:33 AM | #24 | |||
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Netflix and music subscription models seem to work across the board: why not something similar for e-books? Even if cloud streaming models don't work, why not rental models- ala movies? Quote:
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09-18-2011, 10:33 AM | #25 | |
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09-18-2011, 10:53 AM | #26 | ||||||
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Again, depends on the ads. Quote:
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09-18-2011, 11:16 AM | #27 | |||
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Last edited by stonetools; 09-18-2011 at 11:25 AM. |
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09-18-2011, 11:46 AM | #28 | ||
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The DX still being priced at $379 kinda puzzles me. |
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09-18-2011, 12:04 PM | #29 | ||
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NOOK KIDS Parents with kids love the iPad. IPAD CHILDREN"S BOOKS Quote:
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09-18-2011, 12:35 PM | #30 | |
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Without being given a "cookie," no one will volunteer their books to be ad-ed up. You keep touting the KSO as model that works, but it's just too young to make that call. I think you'll find that many KSO owners are noticing that the special offers (the main attraction in the first place) start tailing off relatively quickly. Once consumers stop receiving "payments," what reason will they have to even glance at the ads? The problem isn't only on the consumer end, either. Manufacturers don't pay for advertising if they see no return on it. And judging by the looks of things... not many companies are following Oil of Olay and Buick down this particular path. I wonder why that is? |
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