Jerry Pournelle on ebooks

[ischeriad]

I just listened to the current "This Week in Tech" episode 118.

One Guest is Jerry Pournelle, who says:
"I think the next iteration of the iPhone may be the beginning of the end of the paperback book business."

He states, that most people don't buy a dedicated bookreader, but if they are "already carrying something, that is good enough to read a book on" they would consider buying an ebook instead of a paperback. Further he says "I think the paperback book industry is already in trouble".

There is also mention of the Sony Reader and the Amazon Kindle.

It's worth a listen, this topic starts at about minute 51.

Edit: Another guest, Brad Stone who writes for the New York Times, claims en passant that he has "talked to people who have used" the kindle (59'58).

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

I'm not sure why Jerry thinks the new iPhone will be so magical... other PDAs have had the same e-book functionability for years that the iPhone doesn't even have yet. I don't see the iPhone doing anything special with e-books that other devices can't do. And I don't see the iPhone becoming the only device on the market.

I can see the iPhone becoming the new design standard for PDAs and smartphones, which could make them more ubiquitous... and that could drive the growth of e-books.

[ischeriad]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

I can see the iPhone becoming the new design standard for PDAs and smartphones, which could make them more ubiquitous... and that could drive the growth of e-books.

I think that's just his point - as the iPod is "the" standard mp3 player, maybe the iPhone becomes "the" standard mobile phone. And when that happens, many people carry a device which is very well capable of displaying books (let's say proper software is available by then). This is not the case yet: There are very many different types of phones, and only few of them have a large display.
But maybe it is a bit optimistic, cosidering the current price of the iPhone. On the other hand the iPod was and is one of the expensiest mp3 players.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by ischeriad

But maybe it is a bit optimistic, cosidering the current price of the iPhone. On the other hand the iPod was and is one of the expensiest mp3 players.

This is part of what I was thinking... the cost is going to keep a lot of people away. (For the record, I have an MP3 player, but it's not an iPod, and I'm good with that.) But even more importantly, just because you have the capability of using it to read, doesn't mean people will do that. Plenty of people already have PDAs and smartphones that are completely capable of reading e-books, yet its users wouldn't think of it. (For that matter, most of those PDAs and smartphones do a lot of things that the majority of their owners never use.)

It might seem like a no-brainer to some of us, but for those in this forum who still say reading on a PDA screen is no good for them, they understand that just having an iPhone doesn't necessarily mean it will ever be used as an e-book reader.

I do believe e-books will become common, and read on portable electronic devices. I just think Jerry's being overly-expectant of the iPhone being the device that tips the balance.

[nekokami]

I think it's a little bit ironic that Jerry Pournelle is taking this position on ebooks, given his historical stance on ebook "piracy," but I guess that's a different matter in his mind.

Anyway, maybe what the iPhone will do, ultimately, is popularize small multi-function devices with high-resolution screens. Most PDAs don't have a screen with that resolution, do they? (I wouldn't know, I'm still using a Palm IIIxe, and I'd read an ebook on my laptop before I'd consider using that as an ebook reader.)

Or maybe what he means is that the iPhone may make ebook reading sexy, the way the iPod made small digital music players sexy, even if the iPhone itself doesn't "own" the smart phone market.

[HarryT]

The iPhone has a 320x480 screen - ie midway between quarter VGA and full VGA PDAs, so it's nothing special in that regard. As you say, if it serves to popularise the use of mobile devices for reading, that can only be a good thing, although I am slightly amused by the iPhone "hype". Its interface is certainly revolutionary, but its functionality is nothing that you've not been able to do on Pocket PC and Palm-based SmartPhones for a number of years. Any PocketPC or Palm is - IMHO - a far better bookreader than an iPhone due to the fact that they are both open system onto which one can install one's bookreader of choice. Mr. Pournelle seems to be rather lacking in knowledge about such matters.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

The iPhone certainly is a cool device. But ultimately, it doesn't do anything that a good smartphone can do today... it just does it in a cool way, wth touchscreens and moving graphics. That interface is sure to be reproduced in new devices (the Chinese have already cloned it), so we may all be using phones or PDAs with similar animated touchscreen interfaces eventually.

The iPhone may be sexy... but at this point, we don't even know if the iPhone will make it in the market, given its high cost and its lack of support across the mobile phone providers. It may remain a niche or cult product, and it isn't immune to being discontinued yet.

And I don't care how sexy it is... that's not going to be enough to make people read.

Originally Posted by nekokami

I think it's a little bit ironic that Jerry Pournelle is taking this position on ebooks, given his historical stance on ebook "piracy," but I guess that's a different matter in his mind.

I guess he assumes technology will find a way to create the perfect DRM system and solve his piracy issues.

[BooksForABuck]

I think the iPhone has generated so much interest in eBooks for two reasons.
1. Its display really is nice. It's a decent size, with no wasted space for plastic and things that aren't really needed in an eBook and the display is also extremely clear.
2. Most smartphones target business users. The Blackberry, for example, is popular because it can be tied to business e-mail systems. The iPhone, though, is seen as a consumer-oriented device.

Right now, the iPhone is far from the best smart-phone reader. But it definitely has potential--and it's generatings some significant sales.

I have a dedicated eBook reader myself, but I agree with Pournelle that most readers won't buy and carry a dedicated reader. You've got to read a whole lot of books to justify the investment in a reader and you've got to have big pockets to carry them with you. Which is why I use my iPAQ and Palm for reading as well as my eBookWise--I'll have one of my PDA devices with me if I get a few spare moments for reading, but I'll only have the eBookWise if I plan on reading.

Rob Preece
Publisher, www.BooksForABuck.com

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by BooksForABuck

I think the iPhone has generated so much interest in eBooks for two reasons...

Accepted... I guess my point is, it's clearly generating that interest in people who are already reading e-books on PDAs/smartphones.

How much interest is it generating for e-books among non-e-book readers? How many iPhone buyers who are not already e-book readers are opening it up and saying, "Hey... y'know, this would be great for reading books! Are there any out there for me to get?" How many tech sites are saying about the iPhone, "And by the way, people, this thing is great for reading e-books... you should check it out!"

At this point, e-book reading on the iPhone is not considered a selling point by retailers and recommenders, and it's not considered a decision point by consumers. Much like the calculators and note pads that come on every cellphone now (check yours), it remains to be seen whether anyone will actually want to use that function, or if it will be forgotten among the accessory apps.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Yesterday, I happened to see the latest in iPhone ads, and I realized the commercial content has all been the same: Each ad shows you how cool it is to surf the web, store and listen to music, watch videos (of music and movies), and (incidentally) answer your phone. None of them are showing anyone reading.

But on last night's Daily Show, Dmitri Martin did a segment on the SAT's, and he showed a supposed iPod commercial clip that included a person sitting down (not dancing wildly), listening to his iPod while reading an SAT study guide! In reference to host Jon Stewart's mentioning "work books," Dmitri suggested that they were the two least liked words by kids.

It's pretty clear that no one producing these products is thinking about our reading on iPhones, or on any other devices. If Jerry hopes people are going to start reading on the iPhone, maybe he needs to tell Apple that.

[wallcraft]

Jerry Pournelle's Computing At Chaos Manor: November 6, 2007 includes a couple of sections on e-books. He expects the paperback market to "implode" when e-books take over as the "mass market" delivery system", and paperbacks are currently the "residuals" system for fiction (successful popular fiction has one hardback edition, but many paperback editions). He also wonders if the nature of books will change , which I agree will happen over time.

[nekokami]

Interesting to note that Pournelle has sold some of his ebook rights to Baen. Perhaps he's changed his mind regarding the value of DRM.

[yvanleterrible]

The only thing I'd read on an iPhone is a phone book!

Crossover tools have never been succesful at gathering media market affluence. Dedicated tools do. Music and iTunes were first on a dedicated MP3 device. I believe books will be poularized to dedicated book readers when they leave the computer symbiosis, and when input becomes a more familiar approach to use them.

You might use a smart phone for occasional time wasting but not for dedicated use, unless it's to phone.

[bowerbird]

there are a couple million iphones in the wild now.
how many sony-readers?

like that guy said, when asked why he robs banks:
"because that's where the money is..."

-bowerbird

[yvanleterrible]

Originally Posted by bowerbird

there are a couple million iphones in the wild now.
how many sony-readers?

like that guy said, when asked why he robs banks:
"because that's where the money is..."

-bowerbird

How many read books on an iPhone? Every PRS owner reads on their reader.

Dedicated devices are the best.