11-18-2013, 06:39 PM | #1 |
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The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon
"The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon
Nov 18 2013, 14:43 " "(Disclosure: I am short AAPL.)" Michael Blair (seekingalpha.com) "Apple (AAPL) may have hit a home run with its iPhone 5S but that hasn't stopped it from losing additional market share in the September quarter according to data from three sources. Apple's share has fallen to a perilously low 14% in the September quarter according to ABI research. IDC has Apple with an even lower at 12.9% market share, a fraction of the 81% commanded by Android handsets." read more and see many interesting charts: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1847...e-apples-bacon Personally (frahse), on principle with stocks, I don't do margin and I don't short but I can understand Michael Blair's point above. Last edited by frahse; 11-18-2013 at 06:48 PM. |
11-19-2013, 02:04 PM | #2 |
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Apple doesn't play in the low-price low-margin market. The 5C surprised many because it is still very expensive. Based on sales and profit I don't really see how Apple's bacon is in any danger.
Oddly enough, while I am also impressed with many of their non-phone products, their revenue is somewhere north of 50% from iPhones. They are now a phone company, or at least their fortunes rise and fall mostly from their phones. Can you believe the crazy margin they get on memory up-sells in iPads? I'm a fan and I still think their price for larger memory is usurious. They are still sitting on an absurd mountain of cash. I don't want Icann's stock buyback but they need to do something. I'd like to see them buy Netflix. I am still long AAPL, as are the top performing mutual funds in my 401K. |
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11-19-2013, 03:17 PM | #3 |
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I didn't realize that Apple needs a new product to save them.
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11-19-2013, 05:40 PM | #4 |
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Granted I have limited understanding of the Smartphone market, but my impression is that the high end markets, U.S., Europe and Japan, are pretty much saturated at this point, hence the growth is in price sensitive markets that would favor low end Android phones.
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11-19-2013, 05:48 PM | #5 |
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You are mostly right. That is a good reason for the multiple contraction (lowering of P/E ratio) for AAPL. Does it deserve a P/E like it used to have (between 30 and 40)? Heck no. It also doesn't deserve a valuation as low as it was recently (< 10-ish).
However, Apple recently opened sales to more of the world. China is a great unknown. Buick sold more cars in China than the US starting around 1999. Who'd have guessed that would happen? |
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11-19-2013, 07:02 PM | #6 |
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They still sell Buicks in the US?
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11-19-2013, 07:04 PM | #7 |
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Yup.
Caprice, too. I recently saw a 2014... looked good. First time I could say that since the days I had a heated '64 to go to university. Last edited by fjtorres; 11-19-2013 at 07:08 PM. |
11-19-2013, 08:48 PM | #8 |
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I think the point might be that the incredible gravitas and veneer of glamor that Apple has had will wear thin when most of the machines surrounding the smaller number of Apple users do pretty much the same thing and at very much lower prices.
Plus it isn't like highway robbery to get an upgrade or a new battery. "How much did you pay? Why?" |
11-19-2013, 10:45 PM | #9 |
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Fall 2014, Phil Schiller: "our iPhablet not a response to the competition".
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11-20-2013, 04:05 PM | #10 | |||
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Quote:
Quote:
We've seen SSD's drop from $400 for 32GB to $100 for 128GB. Memory cards are gigantic; in the Netherlands, it's difficult to get SD-cards below 4GB. Shipping them in an envelope is more expensive than the card itself. Quote:
Nokia was like the King, Queen and Emperor of the phone market, but they got complacent. Then smartphones caught on, and *boom*. They're about dead within 5-6 years. The same can happen to Apple. Last edited by Katsunami; 11-20-2013 at 04:37 PM. |
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11-20-2013, 04:28 PM | #11 |
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Agreed. It can happen to any company. Not just Nokia. I'm thinking of Research in Motion, Motorola, Myspace, Digital Equipment Corp, Atari, Pan American, Kodak, Polaroid and so many more who were all at one time on top of their world.
The question is, is now the time for Apple to fail? Not yet, not in 2014. |
11-20-2013, 04:37 PM | #12 | ||
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Pentax, once the premier SLR seller, now only a Ricoh name. Leica, the premier rangefinder seller, now only a high-end niche player. Interplay: At one time the biggest game publisher in the world. Comodore, once the top home computer. Genius, once the biggest seller of computer input peripherals, completely eclipsed by Logitech. In the computer world we also had TSeng, Cirrus, Diamond, S3... and many others that once were top or number one brands, who are now dead, or only a name in someone else's portfolio. Quote:
(ATI is now owned by AMD, but they are older than nVidia, and at one time were the biggest manufacturer of graphics hardware in the world.) Last edited by Katsunami; 11-20-2013 at 04:40 PM. |
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11-20-2013, 05:11 PM | #13 |
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You could add Palm to that list of failed companies who were once on top of the world as well. It's a shame, because there really isn't a good replacement for them as an address book/to do list/note taking device.
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11-20-2013, 05:36 PM | #14 |
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As for Apple, they do seem to be complacent.
They aren't even trying to fight Microsoft in the mainstream computer OS arena, at a time when Microsoft is stumbling badly. In fact, they seem determined to drive away high-end pros and prosumers by dumbing down apps and replacing the previously excellent Mac Pro desktop with a useless executive toy. |
11-20-2013, 05:47 PM | #15 | |
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That's some serious money for a workstation computer that doesn't come with support comparable to what Dell provides or can provide. If I'm going to spend $2999 on a computer that I don't to intend to fix or upgrade by myself, I want *at least* 5 years of support for it. That's actually one of my biggest pet peeves with Apple. You get 2 years of warranty through the seller (in The Netherlands/EU), and if you want more, you'll have to go with the ridiculously expensive Apple Care to get 3 years through Apple. With Dell, I just pay them something around €100, and I get 5 years of next business day warranty. (This means that if one calls before 16:00, a technician will come and fix the computer before 16:00 the next day. edit: where "day" is a working day.) Another pet peeve is that there's "nothing in the middle". I you want a desktop computer so you can choose your own screen (so, not an iMac), you'll have to go with the Mac Mini, which is underpowered for my use, or with the Mac Pro, which is too expensive and grossly overpowered. Last edited by Katsunami; 11-20-2013 at 06:05 PM. |
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