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Old 06-05-2011, 04:41 PM   #76
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And I just looked in multiple places for a PDA and came up empty. Unless someone shows me otherwise, I'd say it qualifies as a device that's been replaced by a more multipurpose competitor.
Dell still sells the Pharos PDA w/GPS and there's still plenty of Pocket PCs (non-smartphone) still on the market.
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Old 06-05-2011, 05:14 PM   #77
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Dell still sells the Pharos PDA w/GPS and there's still plenty of Pocket PCs (non-smartphone) still on the market.
Wouldn't the fact that the Pharos has a GPS mean it's graduated from being a PDA only into being a multi-purpose device?

But if there's still Pocket PCs available there are indeed still PDAs. Unless you enter into a debate about what exactly a PDA is, since I doubt that today's PDAs are as limited in their features as the original PDAs were.

Although, I'd argue that by its very nature the PDA can evolve quite a bit and still be a PDA. I mean, an argument could be made that an iPod Touch is really just a PDA with MP3 playing capabilities.

Still curious about your thought regarding word processors, car radios, cell phones and videogame consoles.
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Old 06-05-2011, 05:26 PM   #78
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edit: And I just looked in multiple places for a PDA and came up empty. Unless someone shows me otherwise, I'd say it qualifies as a device that's been replaced by a more multipurpose competitor.
*cough*
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Old 06-05-2011, 05:28 PM   #79
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Well, yeah, PDA's are going away quick, but how many years ago was the Time of Death officially called? And technically... the PDA was born a multipurpose device. It just became part of a multi-multipurpose device

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Still curious about your thought regarding word processors, car radios, cell phones and videogame consoles.
Stand-alone word-processing machines I'll give you.

But I'm not sure I follow you on the rest. Do you mean car radios as in AM/FM only Car Radios? As opposed to radios with cassette or CD players? I don't think it's fair to say that cellphones were replaced by cell phones with cameras, but I guess I can give you that.

I don't get the videogame consoles, though. For a long time now, you bought a console and the games separately—whether it was a cartridge, cd, dvd or what have you. You can still buy videogame consoles today that you then buy separate games for. Am I missing something?
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Old 06-05-2011, 05:30 PM   #80
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Wouldn't the fact that the Pharos has a GPS mean it's graduated from being a PDA only into being a multi-purpose device?
Sorry: A PDA is a multipurpose device.
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Old 06-05-2011, 05:30 PM   #81
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Still curious about your thought regarding word processors, car radios, cell phones and videogame consoles.
There are still dedicated "phone only" cell phones in use and being manufactured, but they are in small quantities as a niche market. Some companies require that only these types of cell phones be carried by employees on company property and/or business travel, because they are worried about government or corporate espionage. (Of the "hack into a smart phone and overhear everything said in the vicinity without the hapless employee realizing" variety.)

As for video game consoles, I remember seeing new third-party machines awhile back that promised to play one's old Genesis or SNES games. Again, a niche market, but the question here was "can you get one new" and the answer is yes.

Last I checked, you can still buy AM/FM car radios. Not everyone wants to go to satellite. (Or is that not what you meant.)

Dunno about word processors. You may have found the one thing. But I can find new typewriters...
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Old 06-05-2011, 05:39 PM   #82
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Strangely busy weekend, what with meetings with eds who flew in from San Francisco and so on. One nice detail for mobileread denizens: At our event, people loved the fact I was reading from a "Kindle" (actually a PRS-950) and applauded me for being a "cutting-edge nerd" as well as for the short pieces themselves. Dino tech or cutting edge? You decide.

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So if you tell me dedicated ereaders will be expensive and rare in several years... I'll believe you. But I refuse to believe they'll become extinct.
Diap: I'm not against your asking questions regarding tech that lingers vs. tech that's completely extinct, but keep in mind that your point about old tech remaining available in some sense doesn't contradict what Jeter's saying, and it especially doesn't contradict what I've said.

If I understand you correctly, you seem to be attempting to disqualify the larger point with a technical argument about old things remaining available. Aside from questions as to whether they're still being manufactured or whether old stock lingers (minidisc), whether it's affordable in the sense of close to the original price (Studer remotes) or whether what's still available new is optimum in terms of the model being offered (DAT recorders), Jeter's making a point about mainstreaming, as am I. Just to verify that bit, allow me to quote myself earlier in the thread:

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So far, a tablet isn't an optimum reader. Nor, for that matter, is an iPad's internal amp and DAC as world-class as Ray Samuels' SR-71A and the Cipher Labs AlgoRhythm Solo. But in the widest common markets, when has quality of user experience trumped versatility in any sense? If you doubt it, ask Sony about their aborted Qualia line.
Note the distinction between Sony and Ray Samuels/Cipher Labs. RS and CL continue to make high-quality DACs and amps specifically tailored to the iPod, but that's for people like you and me, Diap, who care about quality (though not necessarily about Touches, iPhones or iPods in general).

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Or perhaps some smaller or niche companies will pick up where Sony, Amazon and B&N leave off. We'll all become eInk purists, the tech-reading equivalent of audiophiles. . . .
Whether eInk readers continue to be available as old stock or overstock and/or whether smaller companies nurse the eventually smaller market, the prediction I'm interested in can't be disqualified by the idea that new old tech still exists.

Of course, you also have to allow that old tech which is being made today wasn't necessarily made at all for a period of years. The dedicated professional hardware sequencer is one example: I'm thinking of machines like the Roland MC-500.

Which begs the question as to whether old tech is really secure tech if there isn't any support. In my line of work, one's always on the lookout for geniuses who can repair anything and are obsessive enough to find old parts. The reward is having a sound that few people can get. Ask keyboardist and producer Jeff Lorber how he gets that vintage electric piano sound and he'll tell you (if you're lucky) about a keyboard techie in the Pacific Northwest who developed a way of customizing old Fender Rhodes electric pianos that makes them cut through the track incredibly well.

Guess who's now lining up for that advantage? People in famous bands, whose music will trigger renewed interest in old instruments without anyone quite being able to get that same sound.

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Old 06-05-2011, 05:59 PM   #83
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Well to be perfectly honest Prestidigitwheeze, I'm basing most of my argument on the thread title that you chose.
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*Steampunk* Coiner Predicts the Death of eReaders
I really don't think there's a lot of wiggle room for interpretation there.

Jeter, I'm not really concerned with very much. I was only concerned with several posts in this thread claiming that history supported the theory that multi-purpose devices cause the extinction of single purpose devices. And I don't think history supports that theory at all. Nor do I think I'll see the "death" of the dedicated ereader in my lifetime. If I've missed the point I certainly apologize.
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Old 06-05-2011, 06:35 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by DiapDealer View Post
I don't get the videogame consoles, though. For a long time now, you bought a console and the games separately—whether it was a cartridge, cd, dvd or what have you. You can still buy videogame consoles today that you then buy separate games for. Am I missing something?
Originally, videogame consoles could play games only and that was all they were good for. Today's videogame consoles stream movies, play music, show photo slideshows, etc. They've basically ceased to be videogame consoles and turned into multimedia machines.

But, as I said in my original post, there's those consoles with a bunch of built-in games still available, so technically videogame consoles don't qualify.

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Old 06-05-2011, 06:39 PM   #85
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There are still dedicated "phone only" cell phones in use and being manufactured, but they are in small quantities as a niche market.
They can't even send text messages? I checked a couple of providers around here, and the most simplistic phones I could find (like this one) can do texting, while the original brick-sized phones could not.

Again, I acknowledge that this is a stretch. At which point does a new function cause the device to evolve from its original form?

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Last I checked, you can still buy AM/FM car radios. Not everyone wants to go to satellite. (Or is that not what you meant.)
I meant car radios only, with no CD or tape player. But as with the cellphone, the question about new functionality and the evolution of a device comes into play.
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Old 06-05-2011, 08:36 PM   #86
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Originally, videogame consoles could play games only and that was all they were good for. Today's videogame consoles stream movies, play music, show photo slideshows, etc. They've basically ceased to be videogame consoles and turned into multimedia machines.

But, as I said in my original post, there's those consoles with a bunch of built-in games still available, so technically videogame consoles don't qualify.
This isn't an argument in favor of "the death of eReaders", though, it's an argument that says that eReaders will eventually stop being just for reading books and will also include web browsers, audiobook playback, Text-to-Speech capability, and possibly some rudimentary note-writing abilities.

Oh wait...
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Old 06-05-2011, 10:08 PM   #87
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I think that price is important when considering the future single-use devices.

Walmart sells simple calculators for a dollar. Everyone can afford one, and they are easily available.

I see that to be the future of simple eBook readers.

Sure, it's possible to imagine that simple eBook readers will be rare and so expensive that few can afford them, but that's an entirely different scenario. I don't think that it's helpful to imagine a scenario where an item is available only to the rich, and then say, "See? I told you they would still be available!"

Let me add that I think some here are making a mistake by equating simple eBook readers with eInk devices. The single-function aspect of a device is not dependent upon the screen technology.
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Old 06-06-2011, 12:00 AM   #88
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Well to be perfectly honest Prestidigitwheeze, I'm basing most of my argument on the thread title that you chose. I really don't think there's a lot of wiggle room for interpretation there.
That's like saying there isn't any room for romance in a book titled War and Peace. Or that no one may wear brown in The Red and the Black.

Predicting the death of dedicated eReaders is metonymic, not literal. Every indication of context in the blog post and in my responses suggests mass market death, which is what Jeter means and certainly what I mean. Given the detritus-swept cultures and worlds Jeter and others write about, I doubt KW means dead as in completely nonexistent.

I'm all for your making the point that old tech never dies completely, but being overly literal isn't really fair to the original idea -- particularly since you seem to be saying that was the original idea.

In an earlier post, someone made an excellent point I'd intended to make myself: That science fiction isn't usually about absolute predictions of the future so much as it is satirizing the present. That's not only true, it's also something that is often said by its most visible authors.

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Jeter, I'm not really concerned with very much. I was only concerned with several posts in this thread claiming that history supported the theory that multi-purpose devices cause the extinction of single purpose devices.
Cause extinction in the sense of becoming suffocatingly popular, not in the sense of forbidding any examples of said tech ever to exist again. Again, I'm all for being boolean as long as people recognize it as a fun exercise and not the complete refutation of a more general idea.

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And I don't think history supports that theory at all. Nor do I think I'll see the "death" of the dedicated ereader in my lifetime. If I've missed the point I certainly apologize.
You're welcome to that opinion and to find ways to express it here. But if history supports your theory rather than Jeter's, then you needn't look for fine-print ways to disprove his -- presumably, history will yield obvious examples. If not, guess what? You needn't justify your ideas and opinions with irrefutable proof -- particularly when we're talking about something that hasn't even happened yet.

What I don't understand is why our interest in eReaders would ever need to be validated by huge numbers and upscale production.

The first real issue I see is possible changes in software or implementation of things our eReaders can't do: When later versions of ePub and mobi guarantee that earlier readers can't open later books -- at which point someone will probably write a conversion application that makes the texts backward-compatible anyway.

No need to apologize, though. You haven't offended me, and if you had, then I'd have to get a teaching job at the School for the Too-Easily Offended.

Here's another argument for you to illustrate with examples, BTW: Multipurpose devices that didn't survive. There are quite a few odd examples of that.

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Old 06-06-2011, 03:20 AM   #89
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They can't even send text messages?
Of course, but that's been built into the standard [1] forever (literally, it's mentioned in the earliest drafts). A mobile phone [1], for all intents and purposes, has always had the ability to both make calls and send texts.

But you know what's gone away, far as I know? Pagers. Of course they were never very big on this site of the pond anyway.

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I meant car radios only, with no CD or tape player.
The point is this: if my specialist device gets features added, whether I need them or not, but otherwise remains unchanged this is not an issue. My phone has a camera? Great, I don't use it, it doesn't replace my digital SLR, but it's still a phone. My car radio has a CD slot? I may or may not use it, but this doesn't take away from the AM/FM reception capabilities.

The same is not true for ereaders. Games on my ereader? I don't have to use them, and it's still an eink display, with great battery life. Which is not true for tablets, even if they do have a Kindle app installed.

[1] GSM at the very least

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Old 06-06-2011, 06:04 AM   #90
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Of course, but that's been built into the standard [1] forever (literally, it's mentioned in the earliest drafts). A mobile phone [1], for all intents and purposes, has always had the ability to both make calls and send texts.
Sure, but GSM was far from the first cellphone technology. I doubt very much phones like this had texting.

But I hear what you're saying re: features. I've said similar things a few times in this thread, and whether the first cellphones had texting capabilities or not, I'd argue that ability falls under "communication" so whether a phone can text or not it remains a communication device.

Pagers though... that may be another one that has disappeared completely. I used to carry a pager when I was on call, but a number of years ago they switched and are now notifying people by text message instead.
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