'Only' 50000 Kindles to be sold in 1st year?

TadW · 12-12-2007, 05:03 PM

James L. McQuivey of market researcher Forrester projects that - under best circumstances - Amazon will sell no more than 50'000 Kindle devices in its first year. 50'000? Is that bad? Sounds like a lot to me!

http://www.forrester.com/Research/Do...,44348,00.html

Unfortunately, only an excerpt of the analysis is available for free. If you are willing to pay the $279 for the full document, be my guest

via Kindleville

Barcey · 12-12-2007, 08:49 PM

Well it depends. If they mean 50,000 by the end of this month I think that's really good.

If they mean 50,000 by this time next year I would think they're hoping for more then that.

Ervserver · 12-12-2007, 10:34 PM

I would say 50k would be on the high end, just because they are out of stock now doesn't mean they are selling like hotcakes, maybe they only had a few thousand to sell, and/or Amazon is wanting us to think they are selling like hotcakes

rflashman · 12-12-2007, 11:08 PM

50,000 by the end of this year would be very good. 50,000 by end of 2008 would be a failure.

RWood · 12-13-2007, 12:12 AM

Have Sony, iLiad, StarEbook, CyBook, Hanlin and the other e-ink readers sold 50,000 total units?

Alexander Turcic · 12-13-2007, 01:19 AM

I think "in its first year" means within the first 12 months since the release. This would be until 11/19/08.

montsnmags · 12-13-2007, 03:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexander Turcic

I think "in its first year" means within the first 12 months since the release. This would be until 11/19/08.

Well, apparently Dymocks Australia obtained, with their grand announcement, a total of 30 Iliads into stock - this therefore seemingly Australia's sum-total of eink, ebook device supply available from all Australian retailers. If they all sell, I bet Amazon will regret their decision not to introduce the Kindle worlwide earlier when they only sell 49,970 in their first year.

Cheers,
Marc (C'mon, does that really need a winking emoticon?

)

HarryT · 12-13-2007, 03:17 AM

It may well depend ultimately on what eInk's screen manufacturing capacity is. If they can only turn out 1000 screens a month, it doesn't matter what Amazon's sales targets are!

Liviu_5 · 12-13-2007, 12:17 PM

Personally I do not think Kindle will outsell the Sony by a wide figure at least in the current incarnation, so the figures will be in the same ballpark.

If as assumed Sony sold about 50k in the first year, the figure for the Kindle is quite reasonable. It may be 100k, may be 25k, but I think that will be the ballpark until things change dramatically.

Zoot · 12-13-2007, 02:09 PM

Well, I think the Kindle will outsell the Sony devices by a large margin (it may already be close to doing so), as all e-ink readers are still exotic niche technology and most people don't yet have a clue as to what they are or even that they exist.

There's psychological phenomenon were if you ask someone how large a company and how many units of a product they sell, most people will estimate too high by a factor of ten or so.

50,000 units over the first year sounds like a fairly big number to me. That's around 4,000 units a month which is on the high side of what I would have guessed Amazon is selling even in its first month or two.

These numbers don't say much about whether the Kindle or any e-ink reader will be "successful" in the long run. If Amazon continues to promote the device, offers a continuous stream of software improvements and new titles for the existing device, and eventually comes out with new models, then the Kindle is much more likely to be a success than if they just sit back at this point and wait for people to beat a path to their door.

Book readers are the sort of new technology that you have to beat people over the head with for years before they finally go "oh, that's cool, is this new?".

Z.

Alisa · 12-13-2007, 02:37 PM

Does anyone know how many units Sony has sold? I have no real data with which to form a good opinion but I've been interested in readers for quite a while and never heard any buzz about them anywhere but gadget blogs and here. I have another board I go to, mostly a women's community, not tech-centered at all, and folks there were talking about the Kindle. Several were sorely disappointed that it was sold out already. That makes me suspect that Amazon could outsell Sony pretty handily. They have better visibility it seems and I think people are more likely to trust the longevity of Amazon as a bookseller than Sony. Now if Sony and Borders could actually get moving on their partnership, we might have a real horserace.

jasonkchapman · 12-13-2007, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alisa

Does anyone know how many units Sony has sold?

This Boston Globe article quotes a Forrester person as saying the Sony can't have sold more than "a few tens of thousands". From the wording, it's obviously a guess, but it's a guess from someone who guesses for a living. *shrug*

tsgreer · 12-13-2007, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alisa

Does anyone know how many units Sony has sold? I have no real data with which to form a good opinion but I've been interested in readers for quite a while and never heard any buzz about them anywhere but gadget blogs and here. I have another board I go to, mostly a women's community, not tech-centered at all, and folks there were talking about the Kindle. Several were sorely disappointed that it was sold out already. That makes me suspect that Amazon could outsell Sony pretty handily. They have better visibility it seems and I think people are more likely to trust the longevity of Amazon as a bookseller than Sony. Now if Sony and Borders could actually get moving on their partnership, we might have a real horserace.

Same experience here. I have 5 people (total strangers) walk up to me when they saw me reading in a public place and ask "Hey is that the Amazon thingy?" Funny that they knew it was the Amazon device, but no one remembered the name Kindle.

So anyway, yeah, I think Amazon will sell more readers than sony. If they have the stock that is. My sony reader was a gadget to most people, but my Kindle is an ebook thingy. Of course, we know they are the same, but Joe Average doesn't.

I would mark it up to advertising and the Amazon name obviously. Never had anyone ask "is that the Sony Reader thingy?"

jasonkchapman · 12-13-2007, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tsgreer

I would mark it up to advertising and the Amazon name obviously. Never had anyone ask "is that the Sony Reader thingy?"

I wouldn't count on it, though. I've had several people ask me about the Sony who already knew about it. Also, for all the press that Amazon is getting, almost every single article includes at least a reference to the Sony and the fact that they recently released an updated model. Often, it even includes a comparison that notes Sony's lower price and sleeker design.

It's got to be annoying as heck to the Amazon marketing folks.

tsgreer · 12-13-2007, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonkchapman

I wouldn't count on it, though. I've had several people ask me about the Sony who already knew about it. Also, for all the press that Amazon is getting, almost every single article includes at least a reference to the Sony and the fact that they recently released an updated model. Often, it even includes a comparison that notes Sony's lower price and sleeker design.

It's got to be annoying as heck to the Amazon marketing folks.

Good point. Also, I'm in Colorado and I haven't seen a single advertisement for the Sony, but New York is probably much different.

12-12-2007, 05:03 PM	#1
TadW Uebermensch Posts: 2,583 Karma: 1094606 Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Italy Device: Kindle	'Only' 50000 Kindles to be sold in 1st year? James L. McQuivey of market researcher Forrester projects that - under best circumstances - Amazon will sell no more than 50'000 Kindle devices in its first year. 50'000? Is that bad? Sounds like a lot to me! http://www.forrester.com/Research/Do...,44348,00.html Unfortunately, only an excerpt of the analysis is available for free. If you are willing to pay the $279 for the full document, be my guest via Kindleville

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12-12-2007, 08:49 PM	#2
Barcey Wizard Posts: 1,531 Karma: 8059866 Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Canada Device: Kobo H2O / Aura HD / Glo / iPad3	Well it depends. If they mean 50,000 by the end of this month I think that's really good. If they mean 50,000 by this time next year I would think they're hoping for more then that.

12-12-2007, 10:34 PM	#3
Ervserver Wizard Posts: 2,624 Karma: 1008294 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Iowa, USA Device: Nook Simple Touch	I would say 50k would be on the high end, just because they are out of stock now doesn't mean they are selling like hotcakes, maybe they only had a few thousand to sell, and/or Amazon is wanting us to think they are selling like hotcakes

12-12-2007, 11:08 PM	#4
rflashman Zealot Posts: 107 Karma: 408 Join Date: Jul 2007 Device: Amazon Kindle, Archos 605 Wifi, & Sony PRS-500	50,000 by the end of this year would be very good. 50,000 by end of 2008 would be a failure.

12-13-2007, 12:12 AM	#5
RWood Technogeezer Posts: 7,233 Karma: 1601464 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Virginia, USA Device: Sony PRS-500	Have Sony, iLiad, StarEbook, CyBook, Hanlin and the other e-ink readers sold 50,000 total units?

12-13-2007, 01:19 AM	#6
Alexander Turcic Fully Converged Posts: 18,163 Karma: 14021202 Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Switzerland Device: Too many to count here.	I think "in its first year" means within the first 12 months since the release. This would be until 11/19/08.

12-13-2007, 03:17 AM	#8
HarryT eBook Enthusiast Posts: 85,544 Karma: 93383043 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis 2, iPad Pro 10.5", iPhone 6	It may well depend ultimately on what eInk's screen manufacturing capacity is. If they can only turn out 1000 screens a month, it doesn't matter what Amazon's sales targets are!

12-13-2007, 12:17 PM	#9
Liviu_5 Books and more books Posts: 917 Karma: 69499 Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: White Plains, NY, USA Device: Nook Color, Itouch, Nokia770, Sony 650, Sony 700(dead), Ebk(given)	Personally I do not think Kindle will outsell the Sony by a wide figure at least in the current incarnation, so the figures will be in the same ballpark. If as assumed Sony sold about 50k in the first year, the figure for the Kindle is quite reasonable. It may be 100k, may be 25k, but I think that will be the ballpark until things change dramatically.

12-13-2007, 02:09 PM	#10
Zoot Connoisseur Posts: 89 Karma: 34 Join Date: Nov 2006 Device: Amazon Kindle	Well, I think the Kindle will outsell the Sony devices by a large margin (it may already be close to doing so), as all e-ink readers are still exotic niche technology and most people don't yet have a clue as to what they are or even that they exist. There's psychological phenomenon were if you ask someone how large a company and how many units of a product they sell, most people will estimate too high by a factor of ten or so. 50,000 units over the first year sounds like a fairly big number to me. That's around 4,000 units a month which is on the high side of what I would have guessed Amazon is selling even in its first month or two. These numbers don't say much about whether the Kindle or any e-ink reader will be "successful" in the long run. If Amazon continues to promote the device, offers a continuous stream of software improvements and new titles for the existing device, and eventually comes out with new models, then the Kindle is much more likely to be a success than if they just sit back at this point and wait for people to beat a path to their door. Book readers are the sort of new technology that you have to beat people over the head with for years before they finally go "oh, that's cool, is this new?". Z.

12-13-2007, 02:37 PM	#11
Alisa Gadget Geek Posts: 2,324 Karma: 22221 Join Date: Aug 2007 Device: Paperwhite, Kindle 3 (retired), Skindle 1.2 (retired)	Does anyone know how many units Sony has sold? I have no real data with which to form a good opinion but I've been interested in readers for quite a while and never heard any buzz about them anywhere but gadget blogs and here. I have another board I go to, mostly a women's community, not tech-centered at all, and folks there were talking about the Kindle. Several were sorely disappointed that it was sold out already. That makes me suspect that Amazon could outsell Sony pretty handily. They have better visibility it seems and I think people are more likely to trust the longevity of Amazon as a bookseller than Sony. Now if Sony and Borders could actually get moving on their partnership, we might have a real horserace.