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Old 08-22-2019, 01:17 PM   #46
janrey
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Just recently decided to switch to e-books when I read an articlestating all the pros and cons of e-books and print books. E-books are so much cheaper than printed copies, and it helps save millions of trees being cut down every day.

I'm just having a hard time looking for sources where I can read e-books for free (since I don't have that much budget yet to buy copies).

I'd be glad to take any suggestion!

Your public library. Go to your library and ask for the information needed to sign up for reading e-books. New, popular ones you often have to put on hold but you get notified and it is automatically borrowed for you when you come up on the list. You then need to send it to a kindle if you have it using Libra app or website. If you have a kindle subscribe to daily emails from Amazon on books that are free or very cheap. Subscribe to services that provide this information as well. If you have facebook search for your favorite authors and like their pages so you get notice if they have a one day sale on their books.
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Old 08-22-2019, 09:27 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by pwalker8 View Post
One needs to remember that eBooks are just a small piece of a much bigger pie, not the whole pie. The estimates that I've seen say roughly 20% of the market. There is also traditional paper books and audiobooks. I've seen some authors play in the indie market, especially with books that don't really match their normal genre and likely would not have generated significant paper sales.
Well 20% is more than there was some 15-20 yrs ago. I remember when VHS was the big boy on the movie aisle. Then DVD's came in and it was about 20-25% DVD's and 75% VHS, over time it went to 50-50 then 75-25 and now of course everything is DVD (or Bluray).
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Old 08-22-2019, 10:01 PM   #48
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Well 20% is more than there was some 15-20 yrs ago. I remember when VHS was the big boy on the movie aisle. Then DVD's came in and it was about 20-25% DVD's and 75% VHS, over time it went to 50-50 then 75-25 and now of course everything is DVD (or Bluray).
And the entertainment markets keep evolving and stealing from each other: for a while gaming was the monster cranking out success after success. Lately, not so much. There's still lots of money to be made but the markets are mature.

Right now streaming is the new hot spot: everyone is aiming to steal Netflix customers but in the process they're clobbering cablecos, with their high overhead. Content producers are disintermediating the old school and going straight to the customer.

And, much like ebooks, most are specializing, going after underserved markets and niches. It's no longer one size fits all but catch as catch can. No need to get massive volumes because there are less hands grabbing at the money.

Smaller audiences but better margins.
Shows that cable drops thrive online, where customer base satisfaction beats customer base size. Again, just like ebooks.

Last edited by fjtorres; 08-22-2019 at 10:04 PM.
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Old 08-22-2019, 11:49 PM   #49
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Your public library. Go to your library and ask for the information needed to sign up for reading e-books. New, popular ones you often have to put on hold but you get notified and it is automatically borrowed for you when you come up on the list. You then need to send it to a kindle if you have it using Libra app or website.
Note that it's the Libby app (unless there's a new one out?), and that there is no Overdrive Kindle borrowing outside of the USA. For that you need an ADE-compatible reader such as Kobo (which has direct Overdrive borrowing in some countries now), or a device that can run the Libby app.
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Old 08-23-2019, 06:11 AM   #50
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Well 20% is more than there was some 15-20 yrs ago. I remember when VHS was the big boy on the movie aisle. Then DVD's came in and it was about 20-25% DVD's and 75% VHS, over time it went to 50-50 then 75-25 and now of course everything is DVD (or Bluray).
And streaming and 4K.
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Old 08-23-2019, 12:15 PM   #51
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And streaming and 4K.
The lastest numbers I found were from 2017:

Quote:

Physical disc sales and rental revenue will drop from $8.1 billion in 2016 to $4.0 billion by 2021 (-13.4% CAGR), while digital rentals will decline at a -1.8% CAGR, per PwC’s forecasts. Electronic sell-through revenue is expected to increase at a 6.6% CAGR over that time period, growing from $3.5 billion to $4.9 billion.

Internet subscription VOD services, led by Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Hulu, are projected to grow at a healthy 11.3% CAGR, with segment revenue rising from $8.2 billion in 2016 to $14.0 billion in 2021 in the U.S. Meanwhile, pay TV — facing cord-cutting headwinds — will see revenue remain flat over that time period, generating $100.9 billion in 2016 and $101.1 billion in 2021.
Between subscriptions and actual sales, digital was $12B and disk $8B so digital streaming added up to 60% of that market. Trends since then have grown.

https://variety.com/2017/biz/news/pw...au-1202455338/

Interesting breakdown:

Quote:
  • Video game revenue was $21.0 billion in 2016 and is forecast to hit $28.5 billion in 2021 (6.3% CAGR)
  • Internet access revenue expected to rise from $140.3 billion in 2016 to $189.8 billion in 2021 (6.2% CAGR)
  • Book publishing revenue is expected to go from $36.6 billion in 2016 to $38.3 billion in 2021 (1% CAGR)
  • Magazine revenue is expected to go from $30.2 billion in 2016 to $30.5 billion in 2021 (0.2% CAGR)
  • Newspaper revenue is expected to decline from $29.6 billion in 2016 to $23.9 billion in 2021 (-4.1% CAGR)
  • Radio revenue is expected to rise from $22 billion in 2016 to $24.1 billion in 2021 (1.9% CAGR)
Note that the numbers are grosses for *all* players in each sector.
It includes producers, distributors, and retailers of all types. As appropriate.

The book numbers line up with the annual AAP reports, with about two thirds of the gross going to publishers and a third to distributors and retailers. Of that about half is trade publishing.

Last edited by fjtorres; 08-23-2019 at 12:20 PM.
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Old 08-23-2019, 01:28 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by fjtorres View Post
The lastest numbers I found were from 2017:



Between subscriptions and actual sales, digital was $12B and disk $8B so digital streaming added up to 60% of that market. Trends since then have grown.

https://variety.com/2017/biz/news/pw...au-1202455338/

Interesting breakdown:



Note that the numbers are grosses for *all* players in each sector.
It includes producers, distributors, and retailers of all types. As appropriate.

The book numbers line up with the annual AAP reports, with about two thirds of the gross going to publishers and a third to distributors and retailers. Of that about half is trade publishing.
I'm not familiar with the terminology used. Is there a breakdown of video purchases (not rentals or subscription) of physical media vs digital downloads?
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Old 08-23-2019, 02:17 PM   #53
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I am not into indie authors and free books. I like my big name authors but I keep a wishlist on amazon and check regularly for any of my titles on sale and i put holds on at the library for ebooks when I can. i am trying to reduce crazy spending on books I may not ever read
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Old 08-23-2019, 03:11 PM   #54
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I'm not familiar with the terminology used. Is there a breakdown of video purchases (not rentals or subscription) of physical media vs digital downloads?
Right there. In the first quote of 2016 numbers and projections.

Physical disc sales and rental revenue will drop from $8.1 billion

Digital sales will go up from $3.5 billion.

Subscriptions are projected to grow from $8.2 billion

The original source for Variety is:

https://www.pwc.com/us/outlook

And has been updated for 2019 for select sectors:

$16.4bn - internet (OTT) streaming video revenue

-0.6% - YOY decline of TV advertising revenue

+42.4% - YOY increase of podcast advertising revenue

$11.1bn - Cinema box office revenue

27.8% - Digital book's percent of overall consumer books revenue

Most of the numbers are in line with the 2016 Variety report except paid TV (cable/satellite) which hasn't been flat but dropped 10% from their 2016 projections.



Subscription TV revenue of US$94.6bn in 2018 will contract at a -2.9% CAGR to US$81.8bn by 2023, due to a mature market and cord-cutting, largely resulting from SVOD competition. The United States, however, still remains the world’s biggest pay-TV market by some distance, accounting for 46% of the total global revenue in 2018.



They seem to be losing about $3B a year.
That's about 3-4 million customers a year. Again, in line with financial reports.
Price Waterhouse Cooper seems credible enough as a general range if nothing else.


Worth checking out the updated source.

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Old 08-24-2019, 05:40 AM   #55
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Right there. In the first quote of 2016 numbers and projections.

...
Thank you.
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Old 08-24-2019, 01:48 PM   #56
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27.8% - Digital book's percent of overall consumer books revenue
I wonder where they're getting that number, because I doubt they're including indie publishing houses. I also don't know if they're including Kindle Unlimited income, or self-pub/indie press books on Amazon.

And even if they've got the revenue numbers correct, that doesn't tell them how many ebooks are read on a screen vs on paper; free ebooks aren't part of the revenue stream.

They're also impossible to count. Aside from all the indie publishers that have "download our free sampler PDF" options and the (millions of?) free ebooks at Smashwords, there's AO3's "download as epub/mobi" options for fanfic, and free magazines at issuu.com, public domain comic books, and endless, endless white papers on corporate sites, which may or may not count as "ebooks." (They're often pitching them as ebooks now.)

If ebooks are 27% of book revenue now - and the remaining 73% includes books sold to schools by the truckload - publishers should be absolutely terrified about the future of print.
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Old 08-24-2019, 02:08 PM   #57
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I wonder where they're getting that number, because I doubt they're including indie publishing houses. I also don't know if they're including Kindle Unlimited income, or self-pub/indie press books on Amazon.

And even if they've got the revenue numbers correct, that doesn't tell them how many ebooks are read on a screen vs on paper; free ebooks aren't part of the revenue stream.

They're also impossible to count. Aside from all the indie publishers that have "download our free sampler PDF" options and the (millions of?) free ebooks at Smashwords, there's AO3's "download as epub/mobi" options for fanfic, and free magazines at issuu.com, public domain comic books, and endless, endless white papers on corporate sites, which may or may not count as "ebooks." (They're often pitching them as ebooks now.)

If ebooks are 27% of book revenue now - and the remaining 73% includes books sold to schools by the truckload - publishers should be absolutely terrified about the future of print.
Digital book usually includes both audiobook downloads (which seems to be growing) and ebooks (which seems to be static). Where they get those numbers? WAG. No one source has all the real figures and many of the companies that have real figures (such as Amazon and the various publishers) don't release those figures. Some publishers will release percentages or increase/decrease, others simply talk about revenue rather than actual sales numbers.

A lot of people like to take analyst's WAG as the gospel, mostly because people hate not knowing so they will latch on to any number they can get not really worried about the the track record of accuracy. You see it all the time with public stock analysts.
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Old 08-24-2019, 02:27 PM   #58
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I wonder where they're getting that number, because I doubt they're including indie publishing houses. I also don't know if they're including Kindle Unlimited income, or self-pub/indie press books on Amazon.

And even if they've got the revenue numbers correct, that doesn't tell them how many ebooks are read on a screen vs on paper; free ebooks aren't part of the revenue stream.

They're also impossible to count. Aside from all the indie publishers that have "download our free sampler PDF" options and the (millions of?) free ebooks at Smashwords, there's AO3's "download as epub/mobi" options for fanfic, and free magazines at issuu.com, public domain comic books, and endless, endless white papers on corporate sites, which may or may not count as "ebooks." (They're often pitching them as ebooks now.)

If ebooks are 27% of book revenue now - and the remaining 73% includes books sold to schools by the truckload - publishers should be absolutely terrified about the future of print.
It's revenue (not units), so freebies don't count, but don't forget who PWC is:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/PricewaterhouseCoopers

They're the publishers' paid accountants/advisers/consultants/etc.

They most likely are working with (anonymized) insider accounting data combined with BOOKSTAT data, the (expensive) commercial descendant of the old AUTHOR EARNINGS.

It's not a self-selected internet or phone poll or self-reported data, but more of an ad for PWC services. It needs to be convincingly close to truth.

I wouldn't take it as 100% accurate but it's not handwavium either. The best read is to take it as a well-informed floor. Figure total ebook $$$ share runs somewhere around 30-35% with unit share running higher, say 40%+.

As for the big trade book publishers worrying it's not likely: their business may be flat (as it's been all century) but they still rake in a collective billion a year to please their multinational masters. They're not concerned with market share, just keeping their jobs long enough for their pensions to vest.

As long as they can somehow report 1% revenue growth per year, pre inflation, and they can blame Amazon, they're covered.

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Old 08-24-2019, 05:19 PM   #59
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It's revenue (not units), so freebies don't count, but don't forget who PWC is:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/PricewaterhouseCoopers

They're the publishers' paid accountants/advisers/consultants/etc.

They most likely are working with (anonymized) insider accounting data combined with BOOKSTAT data, the (expensive) commercial descendant of the old AUTHOR EARNINGS.

It's not a self-selected internet or phone poll or self-reported data, but more of an ad for PWC services. It needs to be convincingly close to truth.

I wouldn't take it as 100% accurate but it's not handwavium either. The best read is to take it as a well-informed floor. Figure total ebook $$$ share runs somewhere around 30-35% with unit share running higher, say 40%+.

As for the big trade book publishers worrying it's not likely: their business may be flat (as it's been all century) but they still rake in a collective billion a year to please their multinational masters. They're not concerned with market share, just keeping their jobs long enough for their pensions to vest.

As long as they can somehow report 1% revenue growth per year, pre inflation, and they can blame Amazon, they're covered.
You realize that if they really are trying to sell insider information without permission as you imply, at the minimum they would end up on the wrong side of a lawsuit, and more likely end up in jail with the company in ruins. Arthur Anderson ring a bell?
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