#25964 (or so)

volwrath · 07-10-2007, 09:46 AM

Thats the serial number on my reader that I received on July 9, 2007. If that is the actual number of the production unit, it really doesn't speak much for sony reader sales.

yvanleterrible · 07-10-2007, 10:30 AM

Then what would be a successful number for 9 months in a totally new market?

Maybe that number was manufatured 6 months ago and sat all that time in a warehouse? But that is still a good observation volwrath.

Bob Russell · 07-10-2007, 11:15 AM

Let's do a rough revenue calculation assuming $350/Reader and assuming 25964 roughly represents the number Readers...

First year sales revenues of around $350 * 25964 * 12/9 = $12 million.

That doesn't sound bad for a market that people generally feel doesn't exist. And if Connect revenues are doing well, maybe they could have more than $10 million in e-book sales also. (Remember that not everyone is as clever as MR folks, who know all kinds of ways to get content outside of Connect. And even many of us are buying Connect books, especially as related to using the purchase credit.)

Also considering that this is only the first step in trying to create a market, and assuming that it's true that sales are exceeding expectations, one has to think that Sony must be thrilled so far.

Hopefully, they are thrilled enough to invest heavily in future generations of e-Reader devices in hopes of supplying the "Walkman/iPod" of books.

Martijn · 07-10-2007, 12:03 PM

Slightly off-topic, but this reminded me of a story my mathematics teacher told me once.
It was about how the allied forces used the serial number of captured german tanks (or planes, I'm not sure) to estimate how many they actually had.

So, we could apply the same trick to find out how many readers are out there.
If some other people can post the serial number of their reader we can estimate the number of readers out there.
Assuming the readers are numbered sequentially, if we can get N serial numbers and M is the highest reported serial number, then the estimated number of readers is (M-1)(N+1)/N.
(IIRC, maybe I should brush up on my probability and statistics knowledge)

So for now the estimate would be that there are 51926 readers out there.

volwrath · 07-10-2007, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Russell

Let's do a rough revenue calculation assuming $350/Reader and assuming 25964 roughly represents the number Readers...

First year sales revenues of around $350 * 25964 * 12/9 = $12 million.

That doesn't sound bad for a market that people generally feel doesn't exist. And if Connect revenues are doing well, maybe they could have more than $10 million in e-book sales also. (Remember that not everyone is as clever as MR folks, who know all kinds of ways to get content outside of Connect. And even many of us are buying Connect books, especially as related to using the purchase credit.)

Also considering that this is only the first step in trying to create a market, and assuming that it's true that sales are exceeding expectations, one has to think that Sony must be thrilled so far.

Hopefully, they are thrilled enough to invest heavily in future generations of e-Reader devices in hopes of supplying the "Walkman/iPod" of books.

That is a pretty positive

way to look at it. If one assumes $100 profit on each one its still $3.5 million in profit.

NatCh · 07-10-2007, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martijn

So, we could apply the same trick to find out how many readers are out there.
If some other people can post the serial number of their reader we can estimate the number of readers out there.

We can resurrect this thread for the purpose.

athlonkmf · 07-10-2007, 01:25 PM

I don't know if that number says anything. (and where did you see that number anyway? the sticker on the back?)

Mine ends at 0043059 and I've got it a month ago.

Bob Russell · 07-10-2007, 01:33 PM

Maybe that means we can double our sales estimates!

Quote:

Originally Posted by athlonkmf

I don't know if that number says anything. (and where did you see that number anyway? the sticker on the back?)

Mine ends at 0043059 and I've got it a month ago.

yvanleterrible · 07-10-2007, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Russell

Maybe that means we can double our sales estimates!

Don't forget to subtract the 100% a dealer asks. That would mean Sony sells them for about 150$ to their chain of sales. Then deduct their profit margin and each reader costs 75$ to produce each.

07-10-2007, 09:46 AM	#1
volwrath Guru Posts: 713 Karma: 1001739 Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Nashville, TN Device: SGS3/PW2/Nexus72	#25964 (or so) Thats the serial number on my reader that I received on July 9, 2007. If that is the actual number of the production unit, it really doesn't speak much for sony reader sales.

07-10-2007, 10:30 AM	#2
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	Then what would be a successful number for 9 months in a totally new market? Maybe that number was manufatured 6 months ago and sat all that time in a warehouse? But that is still a good observation volwrath.

07-10-2007, 11:15 AM	#3
Bob Russell Recovering Gadget Addict Posts: 5,381 Karma: 676161 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Device: iPad	Let's do a rough revenue calculation assuming $350/Reader and assuming 25964 roughly represents the number Readers... First year sales revenues of around $350 * 25964 * 12/9 = $12 million. That doesn't sound bad for a market that people generally feel doesn't exist. And if Connect revenues are doing well, maybe they could have more than $10 million in e-book sales also. (Remember that not everyone is as clever as MR folks, who know all kinds of ways to get content outside of Connect. And even many of us are buying Connect books, especially as related to using the purchase credit.) Also considering that this is only the first step in trying to create a market, and assuming that it's true that sales are exceeding expectations, one has to think that Sony must be thrilled so far. Hopefully, they are thrilled enough to invest heavily in future generations of e-Reader devices in hopes of supplying the "Walkman/iPod" of books.

07-10-2007, 12:03 PM	#4
Martijn Connoisseur Posts: 68 Karma: 855 Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Netherlands Device: iLiad	Slightly off-topic, but this reminded me of a story my mathematics teacher told me once. It was about how the allied forces used the serial number of captured german tanks (or planes, I'm not sure) to estimate how many they actually had. So, we could apply the same trick to find out how many readers are out there. If some other people can post the serial number of their reader we can estimate the number of readers out there. Assuming the readers are numbered sequentially, if we can get N serial numbers and M is the highest reported serial number, then the estimated number of readers is (M-1)(N+1)/N. (IIRC, maybe I should brush up on my probability and statistics knowledge) So for now the estimate would be that there are 51926 readers out there.

07-10-2007, 01:25 PM	#7
athlonkmf Guru Posts: 714 Karma: 1014039 Join Date: May 2007 Device: Sony PRS-500, Sony PRS-505, Kindle 3, Sony PRS350, iPad 64GB	I don't know if that number says anything. (and where did you see that number anyway? the sticker on the back?) Mine ends at 0043059 and I've got it a month ago.

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