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Old 12-09-2011, 01:34 AM   #106
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seems like he was full of it
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Old 12-09-2011, 05:37 AM   #107
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One fun thing about these kinds of necromancies is that you can see how much has changed since then!
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Old 12-09-2011, 07:27 AM   #108
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One fun thing about these kinds of necromancies is that you can see how much has changed since then!
Someone should send him a link to this thread ... or to that article. It is good and right to be reminded of one's own shortsightedness.

ETA: I took the liberty of leaving a message on his most recent blog post doing just that.
Last edited by Rob Lister; 12-09-2011 at 07:53 AM.
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Old 12-09-2011, 08:15 AM   #109
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Someone should send him a link to this thread ... or to that article. It is good and right to be reminded of one's own shortsightedness.

ETA: I took the liberty of leaving a message on his most recent blog post doing just that.

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Old 12-09-2011, 02:46 PM   #110
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One fun thing about these kinds of necromancies is that you can see how much has changed since then!
Seeing old threads like this help me to remember to keep the hyberbole down, because it doesn't take long [and what is 3.5 years?] to get your ass handed back to you
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Old 12-09-2011, 03:09 PM   #111
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Someone should send him a link to this thread ... or to that article. It is good and right to be reminded of one's own shortsightedness.

ETA: I took the liberty of leaving a message on his most recent blog post doing just that.
I wonder if he'll acknowledge it!
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Old 12-13-2011, 02:27 PM   #112
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Personally I've always thought Doctorow should be commended for his blog, and his willingness to bring tech related issues to peoples attention. That's about it. Most people who claim they can "predict" the future of the tech industry find their proclamations to be somewhat off the mark. Even people who kinda get it right - Neal Stephenson, William Gibson etc, etc, will admit that it was just a case of good luck.
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Old 12-13-2011, 03:29 PM   #113
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Give the guy a break. He was writing before the Kindle made its big move into the mainstream and before the price wars forced the cost of owning a quality ebook reader down below that of an iPod Nano. And, to be fair, he may be vindicated in the next few years as tablet and smartphone adoption continue to skyrocket and display technology improves. There may be little market for dedicated readers if Mirasol or colour eInk displays improve to the point of suitability for tablet use or if PixelQi really takes off.
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Old 12-13-2011, 03:38 PM   #114
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I love my Kobo just b/c its is ONLY for books. I also like that it doesn't have many bells and whistles. When I'm reading a book I don't want any of that crap. I want a simple, easy on the eyes, non touch screen device that does one thing. Allows me to read my book.
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Old 12-13-2011, 09:37 PM   #115
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Isn't he in the field of sci-fi too? How could he not predict something this easy?
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Old 12-13-2011, 09:38 PM   #116
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Until I read the thread date, I thought maybe he just meant a dedicated device as an e-reader. Thinking maybe he meant that the iPad tablets would eventually steal all of the market. But nope. He really meant that people wouldn't read on devices period.
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Old 12-14-2011, 03:20 AM   #117
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Isn't it wonderful to see how things have changed in just such a short time span as three years? I think that Doctorow in a sense got it right, e-readers are essentially down to a price level where even the casual reader wouldn't mind buying one. Look at the trade-in program for Sony, the consumer pays only $50 for a brand-new reader. If that is the case then it shouldn't be more than two years or so before they're $29.99.
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Old 12-14-2011, 02:28 PM   #118
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Isn't he in the field of sci-fi too? How could he not predict something this easy?

Science fiction is horrible at prediction.

Which is fine; it's not in the prediction business, it's in the story business.


[In 1980, there were tons of sf books about space travel and time travel and alien life - but I can't think of anyone who accurately predicted the cellphone/internet/computer/smartphone/always connected existence that has become the dominant paradigm of the last 20 years.]
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Old 12-14-2011, 02:38 PM   #119
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Isn't he in the field of sci-fi too? How could he not predict something this easy?

Because its not easy. Steve Jobs made the same wrong prediction, for the same reasons. The takeaway? Jeff Bezos is a great business leader. He conceived of, executed, and monetized a concept that many people-including experts- thought was impossible.
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Old 12-14-2011, 04:33 PM   #120
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Science fiction is horrible at prediction.

Which is fine; it's not in the prediction business, it's in the story business.


[In 1980, there were tons of sf books about space travel and time travel and alien life - but I can't think of anyone who accurately predicted the cellphone/internet/computer/smartphone/always connected existence that has become the dominant paradigm of the last 20 years.]
Frederik Pohl The Age of the Pussyfoot 1965

Greg Weeks
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