Ebooks: Scarcity, abundance and economy

[vxf]

I have a feeling two very different trends are being considered simultaneously because they are spurred by the same technological change - ebooks - but, really, we are talking about two different things here:

1) ebooks are almost free to replicate. There is some cost (memory, data transmission, etc.) but all of it pales compared to printing and shipping. In that sense, the cost of production should really drop - at least, if the market was truly competitive and not collusive as it seems to be. I am confident competition will eventually lead to a price drop. Simplistically, if the price of a book is dissected into various components, one being the author's compensation, another being the costs related to physical printing and shipping, the overall price should decline if we eliminate the latter part. So far, I think this is all good - and I see no reason why, in such a model, the author's compensation should drop.

2) ebooks are easier to steal. There lies the real problem. I see this, however, as a temporary problem. Technology catches up - and stealing becomes riskier. Morals eventually catch up to technology as well. Asimov said:

“The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.”

Society has not yet caught up to the fact that stealing digital goods is a real crime. But it will.

Time will fix things. People have been predicting the death of literature since Gutenberg invented the press. Sure, manuscript-transcribing-monks are not around anymore. But writers are - and will be for a long time to come, even if books disappear.

[tompe]

Originally Posted by vxf

2) ebooks are easier to steal. There lies the real problem. I see this, however, as a temporary problem. Technology catches up - and stealing becomes riskier. Morals eventually catch up to technology as well. Asimov said:

It seems to me to be extremely hard to steal an ebook. How do you do it? Break into the publisher and steal the only existing copy?

Society has not yet caught up to the fact that stealing digital goods is a real crime. But it will.

If you break into the publisher and steal the only existing copy of an ebook I really think society think that is a crime.

[Greg Anos]

Steve, we are dealing with a situation that humanity has never before dealt with. None of the old models fit. I see a winnowing of producers, across the board, as abundance takes hold in those areas. The survivors will fall into 2 categories, those who do it for the love of it, and those who are a screaming marketing machine. (Note I didn't say better producers, just better marketers.) Marketing will be everything.

Think of water in the US. Which is the closest thing to abundance we have. Water from the tap cost less than a cent a gallon. But massive marketing convinces people to pay over a $1.00 a liter for 2 cents worth of plastic and a quarter cent worth of water. (plus 50 cents a bottle of advertising.)

Or think of Linux. Microsoft and Apple have each spend billions over time, developing and re-developing their operating systems, for which they charge a pretty penny, over and over again. Linux is free, plus volunteer work is cheerfully accepted. (Or any other Open Source software). Microsoft and Apple are in a "Red Queen's Race" to stay ahead of this free competition. The problem of dealing with abundance, again.

Abundance will only be stopped if you destroy the technology that supports it. And to do that is a cost too high, even for the people wanting to destroy it.

[Greg Anos]

That's the problem with the copyright concept in the world of abundance. It was designed to control access and and maintain ownership in a world of scarcity. The reason was laudable and practical, to encourage new production of products whose cost to produce was extremely front-end loaded.

But it's an artificial rule. That didn't matter when when it was just readjusting ownership among entities, who were all bound by the the same limits of scarcity, but now...

There is no scarcity in most of the copyright world. Abundance is starting to rule. And that is trumping the artificial rules. I guess the only answer, as I stated earlier, is marketing (or propaganda, if you will). But the people in the digital realm are much more knowledgable about the implications of abundance, and won't listen to blatant self-serving lies.

So you can't sell them on long copyright. You can sell artists need to eat, but you can't sell that for artists that are dead. That won't fly, because nobody else in the world gets that, and the populace just won't buy that. That's the big media's problem, they won't let go to anything. And the result is that they no longer have any moral standing among the people they're trying to convince. The result, (as MacCauley prediction in 1842), is a total degradation of respect for all copyright, even that which is beneficial.

Of course saying it's beneficial is a viewpoint. Since nothing goes away in the digital world, the result of reasonable copyright length would be a steadily growing public domain. And then you end up with the same abundance problem. Why pay money when you can get other (older) variants, for free? Why should I read Jordan, when I could read, say Henry Kuttner (died 1958), for free?

The problem will not be cured by law, no matter how draconian, it's inherent to the system now. The system is not going away...

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Even with ebooks, the cost of production is extremely front-end-loaded, ie, the hundreds of hours of the writer's time in creating the book in the first place. If copyright at least protected that, it would be worthwhile.

Unfortunately, I agree with vxf's opinion of the moral bankruptcy of the system: Today, you can't even sell the public on the idea that writers need to eat; they just don't care. I do believe that the technology will catch up and make book pirating too risky to be worth doing, but it's going to be a long haul thanks to public resistance to being held to a legal system.

Ralph, I see your water analogy. Fortunately, people are slowly learning that bottled water is a marketer-hyped joke on them, as governments are cracking down on the containers and the companies selling bottled water. And as the economy tightens, people will cut out more unnecessary expenses, like bottled water. Eventually, except in isolated (bad water) areas, the bottled water craze will end... but it will take time to re-educate everyone, and apply sensible controls to the industry, to bring the craze to its end. (Or to sell them something new, like the latest concentrated color/flavor bottles to add to your water. And eventually, they'll sell everyone on sodas and juices that already have the colors and flavors added, and we're back to square one.)

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by Steven Lyle Jordan

Even with ebooks, the cost of production is extremely front-end-loaded, ie, the hundreds of hours of the writer's time in creating the book in the first place. If copyright at least protected that, it would be worthwhile.

Unfortunately, I agree with vxf's opinion of the moral bankruptcy of the system: Today, you can't even sell the public on the idea that writers need to eat; they just don't care. I do believe that the technology will catch up and make book pirating too risky to be worth doing, but it's going to be a long haul thanks to public resistance to being held to a legal system.

Ralph, I see your water analogy. Fortunately, people are slowly learning that bottled water is a marketer-hyped joke on them, as governments are cracking down on the containers and the companies selling bottled water. And as the economy tightens, people will cut out more unnecessary expenses, like bottled water. Eventually, except in isolated (bad water) areas, the bottled water craze will end... but it will take time to re-educate everyone, and apply sensible controls to the industry, to bring the craze to its end. (Or to sell them something new, like the latest concentrated color/flavor bottles to add to your water. And eventually, they'll sell everyone on sodas and juices that already have the colors and flavors added, and we're back to square one.)

My point about bottled water is that new writing faces the same problem. Marketing is the only thing that will sell them. There's too much free material, otherwise. And I'm speaking of legitimate material. You may write better than freebie writer 'X', but the reader may not be concerned with that. They may rather have bad and cheap. Think off-brand beer....

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

My point about bottled water is that new writing faces the same problem. Marketing is the only thing that will sell them. There's too much free material, otherwise. And I'm speaking of legitimate material. You may write better than freebie writer 'X', but the reader may not be concerned with that. They may rather have bad and cheap. Think off-brand beer....

Not much you can do about people who are okay with cheap and bad. I think we're in for some inventive marketing experiments until the market figures out a few methods that are reasonable effective... because you're right, it's a new market, requiring new tricks to sell. I think it will be a combination of marketing and searching that does the trick, but I'm most interested in what form the individual book marketing will take.

[Penforhire]

Funny you mention off-brand beer. There seems to be a resurgence of craft beer in America. Unlike good quality tap water (versus bottled) there is a difference to an educated palate. Even my local supermarket is starting to carry a fair selection. The long term question is whether or not enough people will care. Mass-produced beer still has the lead by far.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Penforhire

Funny you mention off-brand beer. There seems to be a resurgence of craft beer in America. Unlike good quality tap water (versus bottled) there is a difference to an educated palate. Even my local supermarket is starting to carry a fair selection. The long term question is whether or not enough people will care. Mass-produced beer still has the lead by far.

I was thinking of the question in terms of Tech Beer and Red White and Blue, but... craft beer illustrates the need to get notice, ie, shelf space, amidst the popular fare. I think there are enough people around to enjoy the variety, especially if the local product is good. So I see the lont-term question as whether or not people will know your product is there... after all, they won't care or not care about something they don't know about.

[plib]

Originally Posted by Penforhire

Funny you mention off-brand beer. There seems to be a resurgence of craft beer in America. Unlike good quality tap water (versus bottled) there is a difference to an educated palate. Even my local supermarket is starting to carry a fair selection. The long term question is whether or not enough people will care. Mass-produced beer still has the lead by far.

There is hope. CAMRA now has international branches, including some in North America.

Once enough people realize that you don't have to drink beer iced cold enough to kill your taste buds, because there is beer made that actually has a real taste (and that taste doesn't bear a close resemblance to horse urine) then they may come to a proper appreciation of what mass-produced keg beer really is. Personally I wouldn't drink Budweiser if they gave it away free.

To bring the post slightly back on topic, the resurgence of appreciation for real ale is a combination of inherent quality backed up by a focused marketing campaign. Eventually the cream should rise to the top. (Though I prefer Pale Ale to Cream Ale )

[Greg Anos]

Steve, I was trying to keep the thread on track...

[Greg Anos]

On firther thought, that is one of the problems of abundance. It causes a fragmentation of mass-market commonality. All products get so differntiated that there no longer is a mass market.

Think of fan-fic. Good or bad, it's completely meaningless to somebody not involved in the specific niche...

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

On firther thought, that is one of the problems of abundance. It causes a fragmentation of mass-market commonality. All products get so differntiated that there no longer is a mass market.

Think of fan-fic. Good or bad, it's completely meaningless to somebody not involved in the specific niche...

Again, I don't think that's a disaster, as I think there is a great-enough number of consumers to support almost all niches. In fact, the almost universal availability of ebooks opens the market to more consumers than ever before, internationally.

Mass-marketing is effective when the majority of the market identifies with that group. When individuals' tastes are more wide-ranging and the number of choices are greater, which we are seeing courtesy of the internet and abundance, mass-marketing breaks down and targeted marketing takes over (for instance, the sudden plethora of Prius ads I see, now that I've started searches for a new car).

If done well, targeted marketing should be much less "intrusive" and "annoying" as mass-marketing, since the intent is to show you products you're actually more inclined to buy and enjoy. In a perfect world, every ad would be for something you really want (or, at least, like to see).

[Penforhire]

The abundance factor makes some sort of on-line reputation scheme more necessary. I always like to point to Doctorow's "wuffie" but that's just so I can say wuffie, lol. In order to rise above the noise in an abundance economy we have to use some sort of crowd-weighted measure of goodness.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Penforhire

The abundance factor makes some sort of on-line reputation scheme more necessary. I always like to point to Doctorow's "wuffie" but that's just so I can say wuffie, lol. In order to rise above the noise in an abundance economy we have to use some sort of crowd-weighted measure of goodness.

A measure of goodness, yes, but I'm not sure crowd-weighted is the answer. Crowd-weighted just means the most popular material will be uplifted, whatever its quality, and lesser-known but excellent material will be buried. Any system needs to be more sophisticated than that.