CNET predicts dedicated ereaders are doomed technology

[bhartman36]

Originally Posted by gmw

Why "almost certainly"? For the same reason so few own a dedicated mobile telephone any more - you just can't buy them. Now you can only by a combined phone/camera/video/mp3-player/reader/internet-browser/text-sender/alarm-clock/what-did-I-miss. All I want is a mobile phone, but I can't buy one.

I think you can still find one of those. I see them in CNET videos all the time.

[etherspin]

I couldn't disagree more,unless we get hybrid multicore devices that combine two screen layers so we have ideal conditions for reading outdoors and in the dark .. these would need to be able to scale down in reader mode to give anywhere near the battery life e-ink devices have...
pixel qi stuff / mirasol may be the answer but while we have e-readers lasting 3 weeks and the tech improving people will maintain the market

[GreenMonkey]

Originally Posted by HarryT

Why not? It's happening for cars. My car doesn't have a key - just an electronic thingy that I simply need to have somewhere about my person.

How many new houses are built with electronic, keyless gadgets?

Having them go away for the millions of houses built over the last century? How long would that realistically take? What's the incentive? Keys are an example of old tech that works great. Digital doors only have small advantages over keyed doors.

Now think, how about re-wiring every house door for electricity. The cost of adding keyless entry - mechanical/electrical door lock. Think about a secondary access method for when there's no power.

This tech isn't cheap, it would be expensive to back-install, and it's not even being installed in NEW houses now. Why on earth would anyone think house keys are on their way out this decade?

[MikeFromHC]

Originally Posted by Sweetpea

The market may shrink, but I doubt it will completely disappear until all the advantages of a dedicated reader can be found in tablets (which means mostly battery life of several weeks and a screen that is stable and easily readable in bright conditions).

Battery life is more department on page turns in a "dedicated" reader, although I'm not sure there are any.

But how many people are away from a power source for weeks?

Plugging it into a power sorce or laying it on an inductive charger once a day leads to remembering where you left it the last time you saw it.

Mirasol and electrowetting will increase battery life a lot, so will Pixal Qi and dedicated readers will reach a point where it will not pay to sell them.

(I wonder how Mirasol works at high altitudes?)

[GA Russell]

Originally Posted by MikeFromHC

...dedicated readers will reach a point where it will not pay to sell them.

Mike, remember forty years ago when pocket calculators were new and sold for $100? Who could have imagined that Walmart would have them for a dollar today?

I suspect that the manufacturers will continue to make eBook readers, but will drop the basic models from their lines; thus keeping the price up.

[TheJohnNewton]

The only reason dedicated ereaders exist now is because it's the only thing current eInk technology can do well. If the technology improves to allow other uses, which basically would take better refresh rates, there will be no reason to make a device that's only good for reading.

[Hellmark]

This article is kinda bogus. I mean, to some extent, all tech is doomed. How many things made in the last 100 years have remained unchanged, and never obsoleted?

Like they mention Bluray, which from what I can see is becoming fairly popular. Yeah, it will be phased out at some point. It may not be having as big of an impact as DVD did, but then again we're in a economic slump, and Bluray prices have just started becoming affordable for the average joe blow. Even still, movies are frequently $25 or $30, which is more than the normal price people are willing to spend on a movie. When stuff hits the $10 to $15 price range, sales start jumping big time.

With eBook readers, I do have to agree. It is a niche product, and the multipurpose usually wins out because the average person isn't into something enough to justify the expense of something dedicated. For me and my girlfriend, and presumably for many of you, we've more than paid for our ebook readers with the savings from free, promotional, public domain, or Creative Commons ebooks available that we have read. However, everyone on this site is in the minority. How many people attempt to read at least 100 books a year here? You see the counters in the signatures. Studies from the past few years have shown that 27% of people have not read a single book in a year's time, and that only 57% complete at least one book per year. When you have that many people not reading, who would want to buy a device for just reading?

[silasgreenback]

Originally Posted by SeaBookGuy

I see folks reading here all the time, including e-readers - though not so many Kindles, mostly nooks. Lots of paper books, too.

Your environment sounds a lot less depressing. Where I'm at in the midwest, reading "The Stand" or any bestseller practically makes someone a brainiac.

Originally Posted by Hellmark

However, everyone on this site is in the minority. How many people attempt to read at least 100 books a year here? You see the counters in the signatures. Studies from the past few years have shown that 27% of people have not read a single book in a year's time, and that only 57% complete at least one book per year. When you have that many people not reading, who would want to buy a device for just reading?

Those numbers might only be the percentages of those who've admitted they don't bother reading. The real figures might be much worse.

[GA Russell]

Originally Posted by Hellmark

This article is kinda bogus. I mean, to some extent, all tech is doomed. How many things made in the last 100 years have remained unchanged, and never obsoleted?

I was thinking the same thing.

I remember fifteen or twenty years ago reading an interview in USA Today with a stock analyst (who was young and very attractive, by the way) who was shorting Blockbuster stock because everyone predicted that one day we would receive movies through the internet. Fifteen or twenty years seems to me to be too long a time to be shorting a stock!

I can imagine that there will be devices twenty years from now that will do other things in addition to eBook reading. That does not mean that I am predicting the demise of the eBook reader!

I predict that twenty years from today there will be people who, like today, do not want to browse the internet or listen to music while they read; and they will be reluctant to pay extra for features they don't want.

In addition, it seems to me that much of this talk of convergence is about items which have been miniaturized. People who read want a 5-, 6- or larger inch screen. Relatively few people enjoy reading on their iPhone. I don't think that people who want multi-function gadgets like an iPhone want to carry with them an item as large as an eBook reader.

[boxcorner]

Originally Posted by TheJohnNewton

The only reason dedicated ereaders exist now is because it's the only thing current eInk technology can do well. If the technology improves to allow other uses, which basically would take better refresh rates, there will be no reason to make a device that's only good for reading.

Except, Cooley said something like, "... but we're also not a nation of bookworms either. For most of us, the tablet is going to be good enough, especially since our real love is video and the web". So on that basis, there would be no reason to make the universal device as good as a dedicated e-reader for reading, because its main purpose would be for displaying video and surfing the Web.

[avantman42]

Originally Posted by MikeFromHC

But how many people are away from a power source for weeks?

Plugging it into a power sorce or laying it on an inductive charger once a day leads to remembering where you left it the last time you saw it.

The battery life was one of the reasons I bought an e-ink device. My Kindle usually lives in a bag with various other gubbins. When I go to work, I pick up the bag. I like not having to unplug my Kindle in the morning. I charge my phone every evening, and I find it a hassle, not a benefit.

Not everyone is the same, though, of course.

Originally Posted by silasgreenback

Those numbers might only be the percentages of those who've admitted they don't bother reading. The real figures might be much worse.

Maybe, maybe not. Nowadays, Amazon will sell you virtually anything, but they started out selling books exclusively, and managed to become a huge business just by selling books. That would seem to suggest that there is a large market for books, and some of those people will buy e-readers if the price is right.

[goodereader]

Hey Guys, I thought I would throw in my .002 cents in on this issue, since I cover e-readers professionally.

E-Readers have been around for 4 or 5 years now and emerged from a fringe gadget that only technophiles knew about, to infiltrating popular culture. Think of all of the Amazon and other commercials you have seen and the recent Kobo spot on the Office. The technology is sound and e-Ink holdings which controls most of the entire market for screens and underlying technologies that make e-readers possible has allot of money.

I do not believe in the doom-singers that say e-readers are going to die, the world is going to end, repent etc. Clearly in 2010 e-readers went on a resurgence and we saw a ton of companies come out with the models and succeed (Barnes and noble, Kobo) and others fail (tons, Alex e-reader etc)

Clearly e-readers via their e-ink provide an unparalleled reading experience and with the advent of color e-ink from companies such as e-Ink Holdings, Liquidvista (aka Samsung) Bridgestone and Vivitek and more, we will see e-readers hang onto their market share for a few more years as new technology will make them more viable on a commercial level.

Will e-Readers last? No one is an oracle or can predict where the market will go, maybe they will be going back to being a fringe gadget, but with e-readers basically saving the bloated retail chain of barnes and noble with the success of the Nook, Nook Color and the NookNews (650,000 subs in 2months) e-readers are tremendously important to the sustainability to some big companies.

We might see a convergence sometime in the next 3 or 4 years, as tablets become more refined and underlying technologies such as Pixel QI, and e-Ink develop more, I bet we'll see hybrid tablets that will have e-ink mode with 16+ levels of gray-scale then flip a switch and full LCD 1080 P resolution + phone etc.

I Will not besmirch CNET or any other rinky dink blog that makes these kind of public proclamations. News is primarily done to get people talking and to raise the companies profile. Its why CNET brought 50 cent in as a guest at CES, it draws ratings and clicks (advertising dollars) I do disagree with them being off-base with their list of dying technologies, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Honestly, I would not pay much attention to their story, if you enjoy your e-reader in the here and now, that's all that matters.

[meme]

Originally Posted by GA Russell

I can imagine that there will be devices twenty years from now that will do other things in addition to eBook reading. That does not mean that I am predicting the demise of the eBook reader!

I predict that twenty years from today there will be people who, like today, do not want to browse the internet or listen to music while they read; and they will be reluctant to pay extra for features they don't want.

I think that might be now and not twenty years I picked up a Kindle 3 because it was inexpensive - and yet it comes with an internet browser. So although the Kindle is an ereader its not, technically, a dedicated ereader. Granted, the browser isn't the best on a slow refresh page or at that size, but its there when its needed and nice enough. (And a good thing at the moment that its not easier as it can be a bit distracting - but that's probably my fault not the Kindle's )

But ereader is just a word. What I was looking for was the form factor, the battery life, and the easy reading screen compared to LCD (for me). So if a device can have that, along with great software at an inexpensive price, you can call it what you want and I'd still buy it

[Maggie Leung]

E-readers, tablets, print, whatever. It doesn't matter where technology takes us. Tech is just a tool for me. I love books, period. Whatever way they're delivered, I'll read till I croak.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Maggie Leung

E-readers, tablets, print, whatever. It doesn't matter where technology takes us. Tech is just a tool for me. I love books, period. Whatever way they're delivered, I'll read till I croak.

I'm minded of the William Shatner trekkie SNL skit.

It may be fun to waste a few spare minutes pondering the imponderable but the bottom line is that it's all about the books, not the tech. CNET being a tech news site, they tend to see everything as transient. And they're right...in the long term.
In the long term dedicated reader devices will be marginalized and vanish.
In the long term ebooks as a content distribution mechanism will be deprecated and vanish.
In the long term, the sun goes nova and the earth burns.

The short term is all anybody and anything gets.

Might as well make the most of what we have, no?
So start working your way through your TBR list folks; not every "analyst" report or traffic-drawing post needs dissection. It's not as if their track record is particularly good...