Amazon Prime Air

[sirmaru]

I heard 2015 as the introductory year on "60 Minutes" if FAA approves. Of course, FAA may not oblige and I did read individual US States have bills to allow police and fire units, ONLY, to use drones. I had read elsewhere on the internet that Congress approved private ownership of drones last year.

Personally, I THINK the drone deliveries will be operational by December, 2014, since that entire broadcast may have been done to put pressure on the FAA to speed things up. I also think that Amazon Prime Air will cost more than Amazon Prime and only some customers will buy it at first. I will definitely be one of the first.

Those Amazon Prime Air drones ALREADY exist and are FLYING NOW !! "60 Minutes showed HUNDREDS of them in a service center, flying products to customers AND delivering to one customer. The video showed the drone flying down from 2 miles up to the customer waiting at the door. The customer removed the package from the hovering drone and then it flew upwards again.

These drones will require customers to initiate the drop off since they will have to remove the package themselves.

Again, in my OPINION, at the beginning those Delivery Drones will only ship Kindles next December since that is where the demand is huge when they introduce new models. Thus, some will get their new Kindle in one hour, others in one day and yet others in a week. the profit may be on the delivery rather than the Kindle, itself.

Because of interference of our football games most "60 Minutes" viewers MISSED that broadcast. My DVR is set to allow for those football games.

According to what I heard from Bezos on "60 Minutes" to Charlie Rose they will not require operators as our CIA and military now does. They will be fully automated to pick off merchandise from assembly lines to fly to customers from service centers, return, recharge and go on to their next delivery.

They are fully battery operated and do not need fuel in contrast to most military drones.

This may be only the first generation of Delivery Drones. In my opinion within 2 years heavy duty, gas operated drones will be in service for large items like TV's and PC's. I also think that those drones will be used by our Post Office, UPS and FEDEX. If Amazon is bragging, the others are right behind them.

By the way, Amazon already has service centers all over the nation. I get almost all my Amazon deliveries NOW in one day. Thus, that center must be just 5 miles from my house or less. They must have large central centers which, in turn, deliver to local feeder centers. They also deliver to local Post Offices early in the morning which completes the delivery later in the day.

[jehane]

I actually watched the segment and I felt that Bezos was quick to emphasise that while the basic technology already exists, they are still working on issues such as drone control and reliability, as well as FAA regulations. He specifically gave an example of solving problems such as not landing them on someone's head. When asked for a timeframe, he said that it was a minimum of two years to get FAA approval, but more likely 5-10 years (IIRC). He also emphasised the short range of these machines, and it would only be available to those within a pretty close distance of a distribution centre - something like 10 miles. And also the limited weight of potential packages. I certainly got the impression that he's realistic about the possibilities and the timelines. They didn't go into the financials, which would be what I would question. I'm no Amazon or Bezos fangirl, but kudos to him for exploring new technologies.

btw, someone upthread commented on thieves following drones and stealing packages. Oddly enough, a few weeks ago there was a segment (possibly 60 minutes also - I didn't watch that one) on thieves following ups/fedex/usps/etc trucks and stealing parcels. So it already happens.

[speakingtohe]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

3- For non-metro areas, a more practical near term (but less buzzworthy) solution would be autonomous ground vehicles.

Missing your point.

A community would have to be a certain size to make it financially viable to maintain the ground vehicles.

If the community is big enough say 10,000, which IMO will still not be financially viable, the possibilities for traffic problems would be there. Lot of small towns you have to go on a freeway to get where you are going. I doubt that an autonomous vehicle would be permitted to go at freeway speeds and I imagine, perhaps wrongly, that road rage at being stuck behind a robot vehicle, that may be seen as taking away jobs, as being a possible problem.

It is mildly amusing to contemplate though.

Helen

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by speakingtohe

Missing your point.

A community would have to be a certain size to make it financially viable to maintain the ground vehicles.

If the community is big enough say 10,000, which IMO will still not be financially viable, the possibilities for traffic problems would be there. Lot of small towns you have to go on a freeway to get where you are going. I doubt that an autonomous vehicle would be permitted to go at freeway speeds and I imagine, perhaps wrongly, that road rage at being stuck behind a robot vehicle, that may be seen as taking away jobs, as being a possible problem.

It is mildly amusing to contemplate though.

Helen

The point is not all communities are close enough to distribution centers or UPS regional operations or command enough volume for overnight deliveries, much less same day.

An autonomous vehicle fleet could do drive-by drops to some locations and other deliveries to Amazon lockers or Post Offices by leaving as soon as a reasonable load is available, following custom paths, instead of regular departures and routes. Maybe following one way cross-country, multi-stop "missions" or circuits no human driver would stand for.

In the airline business, one key metric is utilization--not just number of seats sold--but also number of daily round trips. Sometimes an airline will run a redeye route to an otherwise unprofitable, out of the way, location during time the plane would otherwise be sitting Idle. Similarly, an autonomous fleet of delivery or transport vehicles can be scheduled for extreme efficiency not possible or desirable with human operators. In particular for small cargo volumes.

The thing we are starting to see are ripples from new enabling technologies that go beyond the obvious; crop-dusting and monitoring drones in agriculture, robot cars, warehouses that track inventory location automatically... The internet of objects isn't just a Cisco series of ads; it's an ongoing transformation happening right now.

[Lemurion]

Teleportation may be out of the question, but what about Amazon Prime Print?

I can see future Amazon Prime memberships including an advanced 3D Printer shipped directly to your home. Order whatever you want, and out it comes. It would be a game-changer, especially if they could produce both print books and electronic devices.

[frahse]

Originally Posted by frahse

I expect my Amazon stock to go up some.

All this publicity!

I have doubled down on AMZN since this.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by speakingtohe

Missing your point.

A community would have to be a certain size to make it financially viable to maintain the ground vehicles.

If the community is big enough say 10,000, which IMO will still not be financially viable, the possibilities for traffic problems would be there. Lot of small towns you have to go on a freeway to get where you are going. I doubt that an autonomous vehicle would be permitted to go at freeway speeds and I imagine, perhaps wrongly, that road rage at being stuck behind a robot vehicle, that may be seen as taking away jobs, as being a possible problem.

It is mildly amusing to contemplate though.

Helen

On the sadly short lived tech reality show "Prototype This" the team built an autonomous pizza delivery vehicle. Can't recall if they had contemplated air delivery, but it seems it might be a good fit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPnTm_ETxlM

[sirmaru]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

The point is not all communities are close enough to distribution centers or UPS regional operations or command enough volume for overnight deliveries, much less same day.

An autonomous vehicle fleet could do drive-by drops to some locations and other deliveries to Amazon lockers or Post Offices by leaving as soon as a reasonable load is available, following custom paths, instead of regular departures and routes. Maybe following one way cross-country, multi-stop "missions" or circuits no human driver would stand for.

In the airline business, one key metric is utilization--not just number of seats sold--but also number of daily round trips. Sometimes an airline will run a redeye route to an otherwise unprofitable, out of the way, location during time the plane would otherwise be sitting Idle. Similarly, an autonomous fleet of delivery or transport vehicles can be scheduled for extreme efficiency not possible or desirable with human operators. In particular for small cargo volumes.

The thing we are starting to see are ripples from new enabling technologies that go beyond the obvious; crop-dusting and monitoring drones in agriculture, robot cars, warehouses that track inventory location automatically... The internet of objects isn't just a Cisco series of ads; it's an ongoing transformation happening right now.

Driverless cars are already HERE. They cost $ 150,000 and are legal in California, Texas and Florida. They require special permits in all other US States.

The one I have has lots of Voice Commands and took me three weeks to be able to use it. Plus, when Voice operations are live, passengers must be totally quiet. The Voice Commands do muffle the USB songs and they do not interfere.

So far there has never been an auto accident with a driverless car. Their radar, sensors and lasers are far better than humans in detecting hazards. A driverless car never is bothered by a drunk driver, a drowsy driver, a drugged driver or someone with poor eyesight.

There is already talk of replacing trucks and taxicabs with these vehicles and eliminating all the professional drivers. That could revolutionize those industries. It must be hurting limo drivers and private chauffeurs as well. It would definitely drive down the huge number of traffic deaths each year.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by jehane

btw, someone upthread commented on thieves following drones and stealing packages. Oddly enough, a few weeks ago there was a segment (possibly 60 minutes also - I didn't watch that one) on thieves following ups/fedex/usps/etc trucks and stealing parcels. So it already happens.

The theives would need to be in the air, or shooting them down as they leave Amazon, because, by the very nature of this service, someone WILL be standing at the receiving end to get their speedy delivery. It's not like someone is going to order 30 minute delivery to have it sent to an empty house.

[sirmaru]

Originally Posted by ApK

The theives would need to be in the air, or shooting them down as they leave Amazon, because, by the very nature of this service, someone WILL be standing at the receiving end to get their speedy delivery. It's not like someone is going to order 30 minute delivery to have it sent to an empty house.

UPS already has a service where they send the recipient an email a day in advance of a delivery informing him of the day and hour of delivery. If not convenient, the user replies with a different date and time.

Thus, the user can be present now at every UPS delivery preventing theft of dropped packages.

[speakingtohe]

Originally Posted by ApK

On the sadly short lived tech reality show "Prototype This" the team built an autonomous pizza delivery vehicle. Can't recall if they had contemplated air delivery, but it seems it might be a good fit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPnTm_ETxlM

Too funny Imagine that going about it's daily business and no one knocking it over just for the hell of it. Although it did not seem to be entirely autonomous.

Helen

[speakingtohe]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

The point is not all communities are close enough to distribution centers or UPS regional operations or command enough volume for overnight deliveries, much less same day.

An autonomous vehicle fleet could do drive-by drops to some locations and other deliveries to Amazon lockers or Post Offices by leaving as soon as a reasonable load is available, following custom paths, instead of regular departures and routes. Maybe following one way cross-country, multi-stop "missions" or circuits no human driver would stand for.

Kind of like UPS etc. although I am not sure what you mean by what no human would stand for in the way of a delivery route. I can see a flying vehicle going over swamps and water etc. But a ground based one? I am sure that they could, but would delivery to say a militant survivalist camp or to somewhere out in the alligator infested bayou be commercially viable enough to make it worthwhile on a regular basis? Obviously you think it would, but I am just not seeing it.

Helen

[speakingtohe]

Originally Posted by sirmaru

Driverless cars are already HERE. They cost $ 150,000 and are legal in California, Texas and Florida. They require special permits in all other US States.

The one I have has lots of Voice Commands and took me three weeks to be able to use it. Plus, when Voice operations are live, passengers must be totally quiet. The Voice Commands do muffle the USB songs and they do not interfere.

So far there has never been an auto accident with a driverless car. Their radar, sensors and lasers are far better than humans in detecting hazards. A driverless car never is bothered by a drunk driver, a drowsy driver, a drugged driver or someone with poor eyesight.

There is already talk of replacing trucks and taxicabs with these vehicles and eliminating all the professional drivers. That could revolutionize those industries. It must be hurting limo drivers and private chauffeurs as well. It would definitely drive down the huge number of traffic deaths each year.

Is the voice command not the driver? Can you get in the car at Johnson City and say take me to Atlanta and expect to get there without any intervention?
Why would it take three years to learn to use it if it didn't need a driver? Just get in and say Home James or Office James.

Still it must be nice for you to have something like that vaguely close to working on it's own. Lucky guy

Helen

[SteveEisenberg]

Does anyone know how the energy usage would compare to truck delivery? It seems to me this would be higher.

Originally Posted by sirmaru

Driverless cars are already HERE.

Driverless cars will, if people's hands can be pried off their steering wheels, annually save hundreds of thousands of the million lives lost worldwide to vehicle crashes. By contrast, this inane idea would cost at least a few lives.

It can only work in neighborhoods of low density single family dwellings without too many trees and utility wires around. City dwellers would be out of luck.

If the idea was successful, people would deliberately buy homes that worked with the system, accentuating suburban sprawl. This is just the kind of housing that anyone who cares about global warming (and I realize there are all kinds of opinion here on that) should want to discourage.

[speakingtohe]

Originally Posted by SteveEisenberg

Does anyone know how the energy usage would compare to truck delivery? It seems to me this would be higher.


Driverless cars will, if people's hands can be pried off their steering wheels, annually save hundreds of thousands of the million lives lost worldwide to vehicle crashes. By contrast, this inane idea would cost at least a few lives.

It can only work in neighborhoods of low density single family dwellings without too many trees and utility wires around. City dwellers would be out of luck.

If the idea was successful, people would deliberately buy homes that worked with the system, accentuating suburban sprawl. This is just the kind of housing that anyone who cares about global warming (and I realize there are all kinds of opinion here on that) should want to discourage.

Putting aside the fact that these things are supposed to be able to deliver to windows and may be unable to deliver to urban sprawl over 3 kilometers away and aimed almost exclusively at city dwellers, who would buy a home based on the availability of drone delivery, Would you for instance, commute an extra 5-50 miles a day, just so you could have drone delivery? Possibly you would but why? Do you get a package an hour or even one a day that you must absolutely have now?


Helen