When will eBooks take over from print?

[Sonny Blount]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

It actually went vinyl->CD. Cassette was an alternate format to vinyl, not a replacement, and provided a means to have music in a portable format.

I knew lots of folks with LPs and turntable to play them. Many also had cassette players. I can't think of any offhand who only had cassette players, or replaced vinyl with cassettes. (I still have a turntable, and a lot of vinyl.)


Sure, And people migrated because they thought it offered value (like getting a cassette player to complement the turntable and have portable music), or because they thought they had to (like conversion from vinyl to CD). MP3 players bear the same relation to CDs that cassettes do to vinyl - they're portable.

We are nowhere near the point in the evolution of ebooks where people will migrate because they think they have to, as paper books are going away. So the question is what additional value an ereader and electronic books offers over paper. Portability is one potential source of value, but may not be sufficient by itself.


If you have the MP3s, you can burn your own CD if you want to.

You get the physical CD, I think, largely because everything may not be available as MP3s. iTunes encourages checking picking - getting only a few popular songs to load on your iPod - and has raised the bar for bands because it's much more important to make the album especially strong to make it worth having. It's almost a reversion to the period before the 60's, when what most kids bought were singles, and albums were things others bought for you as gifts. Albums had the singles, and filler of varying quality.

As FM radio became dominant, playlists expanded, and more bands wrote and recorded their own music, the LP became the focus, and people bought albums, not singles. There was more pressure to create albums that had more to offer than a hit single or two.

The rise of the MP3 and the emergence of iTunes has reestablished the importance of the individual song, and if you can get just the few songs you want, why buy the album?
______
Dennis

I was a kid in the 80's and my older siblings were in their teens, we owned no vinyl records and purchased only cassettes. CD's were prohibitively expensive for us until well into the 90's and alot of our collectivions were copied. Most of my early musical loves were discovered on cassettes, and they were the only way to listen to music in the car.

I forgot about burning CD's, it is an important point. People are not exactly going to print and bind ebooks.

The flexibility of different formats always has a significant impact on the art it carries, from the original length of an album being tied to the sides of an LP (CD's caused a bloat of material and weaker albums for a long time). Ebooks could see a resurgance of the short story for example, where value for money considerations are more flexible due to the lack of scaling required to control printing costs.

MP3s create a new landscape for bands and I would expect to see live performance return as the staple of a musicians living as well as merchandising and physical albums presented in a more upscale way.

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

It actually went vinyl->CD. Cassette was an alternate format to vinyl, not a replacement, and provided a means to have music in a portable format.

I knew lots of folks with LPs and turntable to play them. Many also had cassette players. I can't think of any offhand who only had cassette players, or replaced vinyl with cassettes. (I still have a turntable, and a lot of vinyl.)


Sure, And people migrated because they thought it offered value (like getting a cassette player to complement the turntable and have portable music), or because they thought they had to (like conversion from vinyl to CD). MP3 players bear the same relation to CDs that cassettes do to vinyl - they're portable.

We are nowhere near the point in the evolution of ebooks where people will migrate because they think they have to, as paper books are going away. So the question is what additional value an ereader and electronic books offers over paper. Portability is one potential source of value, but may not be sufficient by itself.


If you have the MP3s, you can burn your own CD if you want to.

You get the physical CD, I think, largely because everything may not be available as MP3s. iTunes encourages checking picking - getting only a few popular songs to load on your iPod - and has raised the bar for bands because it's much more important to make the album especially strong to make it worth having. It's almost a reversion to the period before the 60's, when what most kids bought were singles, and albums were things others bought for you as gifts. Albums had the singles, and filler of varying quality.

As FM radio became dominant, playlists expanded, and more bands wrote and recorded their own music, the LP became the focus, and people bought albums, not singles. There was more pressure to create albums that had more to offer than a hit single or two.

The rise of the MP3 and the emergence of iTunes has reestablished the importance of the individual song, and if you can get just the few songs you want, why buy the album?
______
Dennis

Amazon also sells individual tracks on most albums.

[cfrizz]

I migrated to a tape deck to have a backup & mobility of the songs I liked on albums. The same from tape to the more permanent durable cd.

While I no longer have any albums, I don't forsee getting rid of my cds.

I have always had a larger collection of singles vs entire albums. There are very few singers/bands that put out an entire album worth of songs that are worth buying. I have bought & downloaded lots of singles & have transferred them to cds for permanent storage.

Now I have the vast majority of those songs on my mp3 player again for the mobility. The songs don't sound quite as good as the cds that I have, but it's about having the music where & when I want it. not totally about sound quality

And depending on the quality of the original track, I sometimes can't tell the difference between the cd quality & the mp3 quality. The quality of the mp3 is ALWAYS dependent on the quality of the original recording. Garbage in = garbage out regardless of the format.

With my ereader it's the same. It's about taking my book & also my music with me where ever I go, and I can even do it with just one device now, ie my ereader if I so choose, so far I have opted to take both my player & reader when I travel.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by Sonny Blount

I was a kid in the 80's and my older siblings were in their teens, we owned no vinyl records and purchased only cassettes. CD's were prohibitively expensive for us until well into the 90's and alot of our collectivions were copied. Most of my early musical loves were discovered on cassettes, and they were the only way to listen to music in the car.

Okay. I think you're more an exception than a rule, but I can understand your position.

I forgot about burning CD's, it is an important point. People are not exactly going to print and bind ebooks.

I know people who might, but you're correct: the vast majority of folks would have no reason to do so, even if they had the ability.

The flexibility of different formats always has a significant impact on the art it carries, from the original length of an album being tied to the sides of an LP (CD's caused a bloat of material and weaker albums for a long time). Ebooks could see a resurgance of the short story for example, where value for money considerations are more flexible due to the lack of scaling required to control printing costs.

We are seeing something of a market for short stories in electronic form.

An old friend was bemused a while back. A random vanity Google revealed a short story collection of his work he wasn't aware of. He's written a lot of short stories, for a variety of print and online markets, and put them up on Fictionwise. His contract with Fictionwise gave them the rights to issue them as a collection, and they did do. He had no objection to them doing it, but it would have been nice had they mentioned it to him...

MP3s create a new landscape for bands and I would expect to see live performance return as the staple of a musicians living as well as merchandising and physical albums presented in a more upscale way.

That's happening. An old friend is leader of an alt-rock band. They've had a couple of major label albums and a slew of indie label releases. They have a following, and make their living touring. He'd like you to buy the CDs, but if you rip them to MP3 and share them with your friends, fine by him: the more people who hear their music, the more who will come see them when they play.

It's an inversion of the market. In the '60s and '70s, the LP was the "product", and a tour was something a band did to promote the LP. These days, the gig is becoming the product, and the album promotes and becomes a souvenir of the gig.
______
Dennis

[HamsterRage]

People are getting used to buying their content on line and having it instantly. I suspect that's going to be the end of paper books.

[JimKal]

Originally Posted by HamsterRage

People are getting used to buying their content on line and having it instantly. I suspect that's going to be the end of paper books.

I think you are right but only in North America and Europe. I know that I've become a big fan of what Amazon is doing with e-Book sales. I've been able to buy a few collections of books by some out of print authors that I used to read years ago. These are books that aren't in public domain yet but are put of print. The cost is minimal and prompted me to buy these collections. I won't read everything in them but I will enjoy some of them. So far, what I've been buying are old SciFi that I enjoyed as a teenager and young adult - Andre Norton, E. R. Borroughs, and others. The Kindle app for iPad makes for a nice reading experience. Yes, I use it inside rather than outside but that is where I tend to read anyway.

With the sales of iPad and lower cost devices like the Nook and the Kindle reader, I expect e-book sales to take off in the US and Europe very soon. I'm even considering a Kindle as a backup for my iPad based on its cost and battery life.

[WT Sharpe]

Originally Posted by JimKal

I think you are right but only in North America and Europe. I know that I've become a big fan of what Amazon is doing with e-Book sales. I've been able to buy a few collections of books by some out of print authors that I used to read years ago. These are books that aren't in public domain yet but are put of print. The cost is minimal and prompted me to buy these collections. I won't read everything in them but I will enjoy some of them. So far, what I've been buying are old SciFi that I enjoyed as a teenager and young adult - Andre Norton, E. R. Borroughs, and others. The Kindle app for iPad makes for a nice reading experience. Yes, I use it inside rather than outside but that is where I tend to read anyway.

With the sales of iPad and lower cost devices like the Nook and the Kindle reader, I expect e-book sales to take off in the US and Europe very soon. I'm even considering a Kindle as a backup for my iPad based on its cost and battery life.

While the iPad is a wonderful device (I want one!), many iPad owners still prefer their Kindles for reading. It's not hard to understand why: at only 8.2 ounces, the new Kindle is roughly 1/3 the weight of an iPad, and iInk is easier on the eyes and more readable in sunlight.

[JimKal]

Originally Posted by WT Sharpe

While the iPad is a wonderful device (I want one!), many iPad owners still prefer their Kindles for reading. It's not hard to understand why: at only 8.2 ounces, the new Kindle is roughly 1/3 the weight of an iPad, and iInk is easier on the eyes and more readable in sunlight.

WT, I do like the low weight of the Kindle as well but the iPad isn't exactly heavy as it is about the same weight as a hardback book. When I read I tend to sit in a comfortable position so weight is not much of a factor. I do see a lot of Kindle users, my brother included, that comment that eInk is easier on the eyes but if you follow the Apple section of the forum, you will see that many iPad owners don't see this as an issue. Again, I was pleasantly surprised at how easy it is to read on it.

The iPad downsides are glare for outdoor use but I have used it will on long car trips (my wife was driving!) and the distraction factor - there are so many tempting features that can distract you from that book.

But it sounds like you belong to the same club as me - we want both devices!

[WT Sharpe]

Originally Posted by JimKal

WT, I do like the low weight of the Kindle as well but the iPad isn't exactly heavy as it is about the same weight as a hardback book. When I read I tend to sit in a comfortable position so weight is not much of a factor. I do see a lot of Kindle users, my brother included, that comment that eInk is easier on the eyes but if you follow the Apple section of the forum, you will see that many iPad owners don't see this as an issue. Again, I was pleasantly surprised at how easy it is to read on it.

The iPad downsides are glare for outdoor use but I have used it will on long car trips (my wife was driving!) and the distraction factor - there are so many tempting features that can distract you from that book.

But it sounds like you belong to the same club as me - we want both devices!

Very much so. My new K3 is due to arrive tomorrow, and I hope I can squeeze enough money out of the family budget to get one of the current generation iPads soon -- before they decide to add a camera. (A camera would make it illegal to carry to my government job.)

[HamsterRage]

Originally Posted by JimKal

I think you are right but only in North America and Europe.

And maybe Japan and Australia.

To be honest, I'm not sure what the paperback book market is like, or whether it even exists, in places like India, central China, Africa or South America. So when people say that only eBooks are only going to take over in a few countries, I have to wonder if there's even a pBook market in those other places. So is it relevant to bring them up?

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by HamsterRage

And maybe Japan and Australia.

To be honest, I'm not sure what the paperback book market is like, or whether it even exists, in places like India, central China, Africa or South America. So when people say that only eBooks are only going to take over in a few countries, I have to wonder if there's even a pBook market in those other places. So is it relevant to bring them up?

It is, if you intend to include the world in your scope when you talk about it.

And there are indeed paper book markets in all of those places. Where you have literacy, you will have books.

It will be more complicated in other places. Consider India, where people speak Hindustani, Gujarati, Malayalam, Marathi, Punjabi, Tamil, Urdu, and a dozen more mutually unintelligible tongues, each with a different written alphabet. Or China, where there are a number of mutually unintelligible dialects with a single written form, but the written form is based on ideograms and not a positional alphabet, causing all sorts of complications for how you write text electronically and how you display it once you have.

The bigger issue is that ebooks require devices that can display them, places to get ebooks to display, ways to get the ebooks on the device, and the infrastructure to support all of those things. That's not universal, and won't be for some time.

Paper books have the edge there. They can be printed and bound at a central location, and transported to where they will be read (by camel back or the like, if necessary). And once there, they don't require things like electronic devices to read them, or electric power for the devices.

It will be some time before the remote villager in Afghanistan uses an electronic device to read the Holy Q'uran.
______
Dennis

[ardeegee]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

It is, if you intend to include the world in your scope when you talk about it.

"The future is already here, it just isn't evenly distributed yet" -- William Gibson

It will be some time before the remote villager in Afghanistan uses an electronic device to read the Holy Q'uran.

That made me wonder about something: for extremely religious Jews, I hear that they aren't allowed to erase the name of God once it is written down-- so would changing the page on an ebook of the Torah violate that rule? A bit of googling, and it seems that they have decided to give a pass for displays on a computer screen:

http://www.jewfaq.org/name.htm

[simonroyle]

Originally Posted by HamsterRage

And maybe Japan and Australia.

To be honest, I'm not sure what the paperback book market is like, or whether it even exists, in places like India, central China, Africa or South America. So when people say that only eBooks are only going to take over in a few countries, I have to wonder if there's even a pBook market in those other places. So is it relevant to bring them up?

India is the largest consumer of English language ebooks in the world (they don't pay for them yet but they do consume the most).

Check out Wattpad Global ebook metrics report.
Google trend "ebook" - surprising results.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by ardeegee

"The future is already here, it just isn't evenly distributed yet" -- William Gibson

And it never was, and never will be.

That made me wonder about something: for extremely religious Jews, I hear that they aren't allowed to erase the name of God once it is written down-- so would changing the page on an ebook of the Torah violate that rule? A bit of googling, and it seems that they have decided to give a pass for displays on a computer screen:

http://www.jewfaq.org/name.htm

A late rabbi friend talked about "building a fence around Torah". He was referring to cases where the Torah mandated a severe punishment for a transgression. To avoid the sort of problems that could arise, rabbis over the centuries carefully redefined the required circumstances so that while the punishment might be mandated in theory, in practice it would never be applied.

This is a similar example of what is often called a pilpul. The rabbinical opinion cited is one way of getting around the prohibition. Another might be to call the file that is being displayed the actual residing place of the Name of God, and changing the screen is simple the equivalent of turning the page. The Name is still present, merely no longer visible.
______
Dennis

[ardeegee]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

And it never was, and never will be.

Then there is no need to quibble over the "whole world" part of ebooks taking over-- just as there is no need to quibble over if electricity has taken over oil lamps, even though there are still parts of the world using oil lamps.