eWeek: Kindle & Nook To Dominate

[CaraM]

Interesting article. But true of so many things. I just ordered a Kindle. I resisted for a long time because I love print books, but so many people who have the Kindle love it.

[EricDP]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

I think if Sony updates ADE, has no touch layer, uses Pearl...

I stop at Pearl because I'm not sold on higher contrast = better. I was looking at my paper books the other day and the paper isn't anywhere near white on any of them - hardcover or paperback. I honestly think the eye strain caused by back-lit screen is in part because of the extremely high contrast ratio. So why go higher? The existing devices look very good to me.

[DJHARKAVY]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

I think if Sony updates ADE, has no touch layer, uses Pearl, has wifi/3G, the 650 could be better then the K3. Year reasoning of being able to take the ePub you bought and being able to use them on a different device is a very valid point. And with a Kindle, the DRM locks you into Amazon. so if you wanted to get say a Pocketbook, Sony, nook, or Kobo, you'd not be able to take your Kindle eBooks with you. But remember, if you do not want vendor lock in, do not buy eBooks from B&N.

BN ebooks are, in some ways, more portable than the others. It does require that the firmware of your reader use an updated form of ADE, but if it does, you don't need to 'authorize' your book through Adobe. Your book is readable based solely on your credit card number.

So my JetBook Lite reads BN, because they have an updated version of ADE. Similarly, if the new Sony has an updated ADE, it will read BN as well.

[Oldpilot]

Originally Posted by wallcraft

Volume makes a difference, and we don't know what kind of deal Amazon and B&N gets on the EInk screens, but iSuppli says: The Kindle 3 might be a bit cheaper than the Kindle 2, and the Nook is probably more expensive to make (two screens). Still, they are not taking a huge mark up at $139-$149. I don't think the parts for 3G cost $50, so there is more room for a profit on the WiFi+3G models.

I'm betting on a $99 or maybe $119 Kindle 4 for the Christmas season. (I finally broke down and paid $119 for an auto GPS, so I know it's possible to lure a sucker up from his minimum).

Who can afford to lose money on the reader? Only Amazon. I think it's a mistake to speak of Amazon and B&N as if they were dominant. B&N may hold on, but it can't really compete; indeed the Nook seems to be one reason that the company is now up for sale. Same with Sony. They may survive as e-readers for the niche that sees advantages in the epub format, such as borrowing books from the library. (And Amazon may steal that advantage by opening up the Kindle to epub.)

Apple is a different matter. It will do just fine. Personally, I own both a Kindle and an iPhone, and it's the iPhone that I take with me on trips.

The other night I was at an end-of-summer picnic and fell into conversation with an elderly college professor. Turned out he and his wife owned his&her Kindles. It has just the right amount of technical challenge--any more, and he wouldn't have bothered; any less, and he wouldn't have risen to the challenge. (It was his son who turned him on to it.)

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by stargazertony

Since none of the e-book manufactures tell us what their cost of manufacturing or gross profit per unit is, this is all speculation

Not true. There are at least a half dozen sites who do device teardowns. For example, iSuppli estimated the component cost of the K2 at $185. Labor and other costs are also readily available. Doing the math just isn't that hard, even if Amazon thinks it's a secret.

I haven't seen a teardown on the K3 yet, but it shouldn't be long.

--Nathanael

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

look to TI for a vendor that has carved themselves a nice stable business, they go back to the calculator wars of the 70's and they still endure.

Probably not the best example. TI is the fourth largest semiconductor manufacturer in the world. Calculators are just a sideline for them.

And the calculator wars actually started in the mid-60s. Gawd, I wish I were too young to remember that.

--Nathanael

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

(Linux? really? on a smartphone?) ... Android ...

Last I checked Android is Linux. As are both Samsung's up-and-coming Bada OS and Nokia's MeeGo.

--Nathanael

[EowynCarter]

Yes an other "know it all" analyst....

Amazon and nook to dominate .
Get out of the US for crying out loud ! Right now, nook is not sold ouside US. Kindle lacks books in language other than english. How could they dominate the e-reader market ?
Not anytime soon, and I hope, never.

[Geppetto]

Originally Posted by EowynCarter

Yes an other "know it all" analyst....

Amazon and nook to dominate .
Get out of the US for crying out loud ! Right now, nook is not sold ouside US. Kindle lacks books in language other than english. How could they dominate the e-reader market ?
Not anytime soon, and I hope, never.

Sorry, but your desires collide with reality.

The consequence of the fact that Kindle lacks non-english ebooks is that ereaders are an irrelevant phenomenon in non-english readers countries.

If you remember well Sony France CEO (president, maybe, don't remember well) told Ebouqin that Sony sold 15.000 Sony Readers in autumn 2008 - spring 2010 period. Last time Bookeen president talked about numbers (last year?), well he said: "we sold 30.000 ereaders overall".

These are ridiculous numbers. Ridiculous.
Reuters** is reporting that according to a research Amazon sold 5 millions Kindles overall. Barnes & Noble 1 million Nooks.

Do you realize it?

p.s.: I don't believe in numbers reported by Pocketbook at all, of course.

** "Forrester Research estimates that Amazon has sold about 5 million Kindles since the product’s launch in 2007, and that Barnes & Noble has sold 1 million Nooks since their introduction last year."

[EowynCarter]

If you remember well Sony France CEO (president, maybe, don't remember well) told Ebouqin that Sony sold 15.000 Sony Readers in autumn 2008 - spring 2010 period. Last time Bookeen president talked about numbers (last year?), well he said: "we sold 30.000 ereaders overall".

These are ridiculous numbers. Ridiculous.
Reuters** is reporting that according to a research Amazon sold 5 millions Kindles overall. Barnes & Noble 1 million Nooks

.
Get the sales number of kindle in france so it's relevant. in 2008 you still had to import the kindle the hard way so.... Numbers of kindle was probably way less than sony's 15.000.

An other point, e-reader market in france is only begining. Saying "Amazon wins", because they have the lead of the US market, is kind of presomptuous. So, the other country don't exists at all ? Remember a pool here on mobileread ? Sony and amazon where not that far off.

In france, right now, sony and bookeen own the market. That's reality. Might change, but not anytime soon.

[Geppetto]

Why saying ereader market is "only" beginning in France (and Europe)? Amazon started in 2007. When did Bookeen start? When did Sony start?

[EowynCarter]

The first time was October 2008, when sony prs 500 came out . The first reader to get advertising and visibility.
Publishers are the problem there. Still too few books. No books, no selling readers.
We where at point where e-readers are waiting for e-book, and e-books are waiting for e-readers... We're just beginning to get out of the circle, slowly.

[GinoXB]

Excellent thread! This reminds me of the old console wars from Nintendo and Sega. The manufacturer would lose or break even on hardware and recoup their money via software sales. I think this is where we are going with the ereader "wars". With the ereaders not having customized microprocessors and components like gaming consoles I assume they're using off the shelf hardware so the costs would continue to go lower unless they start adding more features into the ereaders. Personally I prefer basic functionality as it was designed for, ie my cell phone, no internet, mp3 or anything other than a basic phone. I know I'm in the minority as society is becoming more wired and into multitasking. I recently read somewhere that the price of e-ink screens will come down significantly soon as a major manufacturer has made some inroads to cheaper production. I think it was like $30 per screen now as opposed to $90 or more? I'll have to try to find this article for clarification.

I think eventually the ereaders will dwindle down to 2 or 3 large brands, Kindle, Nook and Sony. They'll always have the third party brands out there that more tech savvy people will want more options. It's just a matter or marketing, pricing, availability and options available for the third party manufacturers to hold on a little longer in the market place. Unless someone comes out of the blue with something that the others have missed and make some significant inroads into the market.

The thing that boggles my mind is why I only see ads for the Kindle, and that's not that often. If B&N were smart I'd like to see them bombard the airwaves with ads for their Nook. Not that I'm against the Kindle at all. It seems to make sense that B&N would put an ad out saying that they have brick and mortar stores where you can go to download ebooks to purchase and preview. Use this advantage over Amazon to say you can actually go here if you have problems or want to see the Nook in action! They should show the differences between the Nook and Kindle as far as features. Highlight that Kindle is pretty much closed development only Amazon purchases, where you have more features and options on the Nook as far as formats and mp3 capability. ( sorry I'm not updated on the features of the Kindle 3 ) Bring to the attention of the shopper that Best Buy carries the Nook.

I'd also eliminate or greatly reduce the area where they have music and movies. I know they do sell a good amount of music here as it is a money maker for them. I honestly think they'd make more money if they converted this area to a Nook area, similar in style to an Apple store or Genius Bar. This way you can go to the cafe get something to drink and then go sit in the designated Nook area without taking up space in the cafe for coffee drinkers. Have live demonstrations, special events and release parties for ebooks/Nook as they do printed books. Make the area modern and sleek to set it slightly apart from the ambiance of the rest of the B&N.

I've long thought that the first ereader that markets directly to college students and inks a deal with major college textbook publisher can make significant leaps in the market. College students can give you feedback that you need for trends and features they want in an ereader. If you can eliminate carrying a load of textbooks around the college campus by having an ereader, and if you're smart you can lower the price of the electronic version of textbooks this is a bonus for cash strapped college students.

Another idea would be to get exclusive agreements with colleges and universities. To sell your ereader and gradually eliminate paper textbooks. I know colleges and universities make money reselling used textbooks and the mark up is high. I would think saving space in a college store with less inventory for books, reducing the prices of e-textbooks and having more space for university themed apparel and other university related items geared towards the students would be wise. The profit a university could make off of ebooks could counter the loss of carrying printed text books? B&N currently has Nook Study software for the computer if they integrated this capability into an ereader for geared for the college student this would give them an advantage other ereaders don't have. But then this would be more expensive than a basic ereader.

As a side note, with the height of Manga I would think a ereader dedicated to Manga as a niche product would do well if marketed correctly. I'd also love to see some Marvel Essentials and DC Showcase Presents omnibus' comics in electronic format.

Just some random thoughts that came to me while reading this thread. I know ... I know ramble ramble ramble .....

[EowynCarter]

I think eventually the ereaders will dwindle down to 2 or 3 large brands, Kindle, Nook and Sony.

There is room for more than 3 brands. Hey, look at the mp3 player market. It's still quite diversified, even though some seam to think it's limited to iPods in the market.

In lots of country, e-reader and e-reading are at the beginnings. US being a bit of an exception. Who knows what's gonna happen ?

[GinoXB]

True EowynCarter. I guess I was speaking more in general of the U.S. Kindle has the most name recognition here. There will always be a market for third party ereaders here, but I think the top 3 will be Kindle, Sony and Nook in the U.S. sorry I didn't clarify.