Register Guidelines E-Books Today's Posts Search

Go Back   MobileRead Forums > Miscellaneous > Lounge

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 06-10-2010, 05:25 PM   #46
omk3
Wizard
omk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five words
 
omk3's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,454
Karma: 37243
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Europe
Device: pocketbook 360, kindle 4
But in the first example we let 49 people with either GB or BG out of the equation early on, because we gave them the choice about the gender of the child they want to mention, and that's why the odds are better in favour of BB. This choice is not there in either your version of the puzzle or the Scientific American's. Sure, if Dan volunteers the information, this choice is maybe implied, but it is not something we'd have to take into account I think. We're only dealing with Dan, after all, not with 196 parents.

This is too confusing
omk3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-11-2010, 03:05 AM   #47
pdurrant
The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠
pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
pdurrant's Avatar
 
Posts: 73,954
Karma: 315160596
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Norfolk, England
Device: Kindle Oasis
Quote:
Originally Posted by omk3 View Post
But in the first example we let 49 people with either GB or BG out of the equation early on, because we gave them the choice about the gender of the child they want to mention, and that's why the odds are better in favour of BB. This choice is not there in either your version of the puzzle or the Scientific American's. Sure, if Dan volunteers the information, this choice is maybe implied, but it is not something we'd have to take into account I think. We're only dealing with Dan, after all, not with 196 parents.

This is too confusing
It is very confusing. But I think it's right to take into account the probability that Dan could have made an equivalent statement about a daughter.
.
pdurrant is online now   Reply With Quote
Advert
Old 06-15-2010, 03:24 PM   #48
Bilbo1967
Not scared!
Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.Bilbo1967 ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
Bilbo1967's Avatar
 
Posts: 13,424
Karma: 81011643
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Midlands, UK
Device: Kindle Paperwhite 10, Huawei M5 10
Slightly old thread now I know, but just came across this on the BBC website in the UK which is very relevant:

Tuesday Boy
Bilbo1967 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-15-2010, 04:13 PM   #49
pdurrant
The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠
pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.pdurrant ought to be getting tired of karma fortunes by now.
 
pdurrant's Avatar
 
Posts: 73,954
Karma: 315160596
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Norfolk, England
Device: Kindle Oasis
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bilbo1967 View Post
Slightly old thread now I know, but just came across this on the BBC website in the UK which is very relevant:

Tuesday Boy
Yes, very relevant. The New Scientist article I based my question from was also from the same conference.

Note that my (amended) question matches the criteria needed for 13/27 as the correct answer.

Thanks!
pdurrant is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-15-2010, 04:22 PM   #50
omk3
Wizard
omk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five wordsomk3 can name that ebook in five words
 
omk3's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,454
Karma: 37243
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Europe
Device: pocketbook 360, kindle 4
Thanks Bilbo1967.
Quote:
It's a very tricky and controversial subject.
Good to know that minds greater than mine find it confusing too
omk3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Advert
Reply


Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Simpler Probability Puzzle pdurrant Lounge 3 08-06-2010 02:59 PM
Fun at the supermarket HarryT Lounge 1 12-17-2009 03:01 PM
Please have fun and contribute! Dr. Drib Writers' Corner 9 02-23-2009 10:18 AM
Unutterably Silly fun reading Nate the great Lounge 7 09-11-2008 08:23 PM
Cory Doctorow on Probability Theory Patricia Lounge 3 05-23-2008 12:12 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:45 AM.


MobileRead.com is a privately owned, operated and funded community.