will e-books kill paper books?

[GhostHawk]

I think it might happen that eventually paper will take second place to E-readers.
But I don't expect it to happen in my lifetime.

How fast the wave grows is going to be effected by many things. Especially cost and performance of Ebook readers. As performance goes up, and cost comes down it starts becoming more attractive. As more people buy into it, there is a bigger market for books.

Once it starts rolling it will continue to grow, but I still think it will be decades before we see the end of paper.

[GERGE]

I don't think the world will ever see the end of paper, but I believe that within our lifetimes we will see the end of paperbacks.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Mad Genuis

Despite all those nails in book's coffin, there is one spark of life that ereaders can't extinguish: Author promotions. From Oprah handing out copies of your latest masterpiece to her studio audience, to doing the bookstore circuit- ebooks just stand there in the dust looking confused and lost. Yes Oprah could post the book on her site and let you download it for free, but it's not the same as getting a something in your hand to take home with you. As for signings what are they going to sign? Your precious ereader? No way jose. They're not promoting the company that makes your ereader, they're promoting their BOOK.

These are all promotional ideas, developed to get people's interest... meeting authors... celebrities promoting a book or giving it away... signatures. When you look at the inherent "value" of those promotions, you realize there isn't any. There's no value to someone else's signature... that, and a buck, will buy you a candy bar. A book isn't more valuable because Oprah handed it to you (or had an intern stick it under your seat, having never touched you at all). It's a false value that fades with the moment. That's what makes them PR gimmicks.

As ebooks develop, and as promoters look for new ways to promote them, we can expect to see PR events and gimmicks designed around the ebook, that will likely be different from the print-based promotional gimmicks of today. Some will be similar, like "First X customers get a FREE book," and some will be different, maybe like "YOUR NAME will be added to every Special Edition" or "Author's Edition includes X, Y and Z."

In our global marketplace, the idea of physically going somewhere to enjoy a promotion is becoming increasingly scarce. I might like an author in Tokyo, but am I likely to fly there for a signature? No way. But if I can buy a Special Edition ebook that includes his comments about the development of the book, or first edits of certain passages, say, that can entice me to buy.

In time, we will stop thinking of "signatures" and "handouts," and start thinking of "bonus content" and "participation perks," etc... and we will have moved on.

[timezone]

Originally Posted by Mad Genuis

I completely agree with that statement. There's virtually no cost to produce an ebook vs the production costs plus the cost of shipping to get an actual book into your hot little hands.

I admit that I still buy books as sometimes they're more cost effective. You can use discount cards and coupons on them and as of now, most places won't let you do that unless they sell ebooks exclusively (and sometimes those are more expensive to begin with). That probably won't change unless consumers start demanding discounts on ebooks from them. Whomever "them" is.

But aside from that, ereaders are lightweight, you can choose the size text, and you can carry an entire library on it. The weight and the ability to choose a large font is a HUGE plus for seniors. Especially if you're on a limited income and can't carry a huge heavy book (large print books tend to be thicker and more expensive). Having an entire library that's digital means less books taking up space. And if you ever channel surf nowadays you will find at least one show about people who are either hoarders or their clutter is out of control. For an avid reader who will reread books (namely lil ol moi), that's another plus in their favor.

Despite all those nails in book's coffin, there is one spark of life that ereaders can't extinguish: Author promotions. From Oprah handing out copies of your latest masterpiece to her studio audience, to doing the bookstore circuit- ebooks just stand there in the dust looking confused and lost. Yes Oprah could post the book on her site and let you download it for free, but it's not the same as getting a something in your hand to take home with you. As for signings what are they going to sign? Your precious ereader? No way jose. They're not promoting the company that makes your ereader, they're promoting their BOOK.

I know I'm straddling the fence here but the voices in my head were having an argument and it came on here.

Actually aside from books being more cost effective sometimes, I still like the act of turning pages. Yet the idea of having a digital library appeals to the practical side of me. I can buy as many books as I want and the only space they'll take up is in my hard drive & ereader- not on my shelves.

Sometimes I feel like my head is filled with the Hatfields and the McCoys...

First, there is a cost. These manufactures are often the ones distributing rather than the seller. Fictionwise said as much when they dropped books a year ago. They said often when purchasing from them you are actually reaching the servers of the manufacturer. The cost of maintaining servers, data lines, etc are not cheap. Otherwise all those dot coms during the internet bubble would have survived. The promotional handout will not stop this change. This thinking is based on today's costs and technology. In a few years there will be throw away digital paper that can be handed out to people.

For those that say this will not happen in our lifetime are dead wrong. Paper will be dead in five years or less. I am not saying it will be gone. Just like there is still film for cameras it may always be around. I am saying in five years you will be hard pressed to find it.

[TallMomof2]

Why wouldn't you take your Kindle to the beach? I do with a little preparation. I keep the Kindle in a Ziploc storage bag and read books. For me it's to keep out the sand that seems to get into everything at the beach. I usually have a cooler and put the the Ziploced Kindle in the cooler on a tray to keep it out of the ice when I'm not using it. I use the same Ziploc bag when I read in the bathtub.

In regard to your original question, I can easily see ebooks replacing some types of pbooks such as fiction. Not so much non-fiction especially books that are heavily dependent on full color illustrations and photographs. At least until excellent non-reflective color displays are developed.

[astra]

I always take my Sony Reader PRS-505 to the beach when on Holiday. I keep it in the same DVD metal box as usual. When I read it, I just read it. No additional protection required.
Unless you plan to use it as a main tool to build sand castles, it should be fine.

[ficbot]

Oprah could give away a postcard with the book cover and a blurb/download coupon on the back.

[ardeegee]

I just worry about the grave harm e-books will do to the game "rock, paper, scissors."

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by ardeegee

I just worry about the grave harm e-books will do to the game "rock, paper, scissors."

Simple: Replace paper with aluminum foil.

[dorino]

Paper is too nostalgic to leave us, really.

[Jellby]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

Simple: Replace paper with aluminum foil.

Or "rock" wins always

[OMdeGraaf]

I am not sure wheter the e-book will beat paper books any time soon. I think one of the reasons would be that people simply don't want to think to much about holding the device the right way. A paper book can bend, fall, fly? but you have to be carefull with these expensive devices.

But in the end paper will be 'killed' just like cavedrawings were 'killed' a couple of thousand years ago. I am just not to sure about who the 'killer' will be...

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by dorino

Paper is too nostalgic to leave us, really.

So were carriages... quill pens... bustles... doilies... top hats and tails...

Even paper will become a quaint little anachronism, in time.

Originally Posted by OMdeGraaf

A paper book can bend, fall, fly? but you have to be carefull with these expensive devices.

They'll get cheaper and more durable. And people will learn to take care of them, the way they take care of any valuable possession. Again, we're equating old habits with new devices. People will change as things change.

[OMdeGraaf]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

They'll get cheaper and more durable. And people will learn to take care of them, the way they take care of any valuable possession. Again, we're equating old habits with new devices. People will change as things change.

That is true. Interesting point that makes me think about redefining some interaction design patterns. Old habits will uhm... update when the time is right and create new standards

[Robertb]

Dear All:

I just got back from the International Digital Publishing Forum/ Book Expo America.

They had some interesting statistics.

One of them is that 39% of all people who now own eBooks say that they also buy the same number or more of pBooks (printed books) as they use to do before they bought their device.

Yes, soon enough paper environmental problems will raise the price of paper sky high. Paper Mill Sludge contains 32 known carcinogens. Mitigation is woefully expensive. So, eBook Readers ARE the way to go from an enivironmental standpoint. Also, those same statistics show that eBooks are about $6.25 less expensive on average then pBooks. Then there is the main reasons why people buy eBook Readers: carry entire library around with you (meaning no landfill problems) and out-of-print classics are FREE in eBook form.

pBooks will be around for quite a while but the economic and environmental benefits of eBooks are the way to go!