The future through the eyes of the MPAA/RIAA

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Shaggy

These days, ripping a DVD is basically as easy as ripping a CD, and almost as fast.

Sure, I wasn't saying it was complicated or anything. But still takes a long time to do 300+ of them!

Took me like 6 months several years ago to finally get all my 300 some CDs ripped.

On top of that, I'd feel too guilty keeping the digital files and selling/donating the DVDs--which is what I need to do as storage isn't an option.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Shaggy

Originally you said free wireless that pretty much never has outages. I'm pretty sure you can chalk that up under "never".

I still wouldn't put it under never. Some european countries already provide free internet--as do some cities in the US. So the free part can happen.

Almost never being down simply requires having a complex system of back ups in place. There will always be outages, but they can be limited. Hell, I have at most one or two days a year that my internet is down for a few hours.

The same will happen that always happens, as bandwidth speeds go up. so do the bandwidth requirements. Could everyone easily stream today's version of a movie with the bandwidth speeds/availability we'll likely have in 50 years, probably. But by then the data formats will be an equal number of orders of magnitude larger as well. 50 years from now, movie/book/song digital data will also look a lot different than it does today. It's not just one side of the equation that will scale upwards.

It'd be like kids 20 years ago talking about how fast they could play the latest 4-bit graphics game on a "futuristic" computer compared to their 25MHz PC. Sure, we've got 4GHz PCs now, but not many people want to play 20 year old games on them. Modern content stresses modern hardware, they go hand in hand.

Fair points I suppose. But there's only so much higher resolution on movies, for example, can go and get appreciable benefit to the human eye. So to some regard there's a limit on how big media files can get. We'll have 3D etc., but that shouldn't really take much more space etc.

But you are right that it will be a challenge for bandwith speed to keep up as it always has been.

Two huge areas where the human race is doing a pathetic job at innovation is speed of data communications and the global infrastructure for it. And battery technology (or alternate power sources for portable devices).

But in any case, if I can't stream most any content I want in 15-20 years I'll be very dissappointed.

But I think we'll get there. Netflix already has what, 15,000 movies to stream. A pittance of all the films ever made, but a pretty big number given current technology and a streaming service that is a free add on to a disc rental service. So I'd be shocked if they (or another comopany) didn't have most every movie I'd want to watch streaming in 20 years.

[Shaggy]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

On top of that, I'd feel too guilty keeping the digital files and selling/donating the DVDs

You didn't mention that part, unless I missed it.

Yes, that changes things. That's a legal problem, not a time/patience issue.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Shaggy

You didn't mention that part, unless I missed it.

Yes, that changes things. That's a legal problem, not a time/patience issue.

I mentioned above that I'm in a condo and thus don't have much closet space and no attic or basement. And it would be stupid to pay for a storage unit etc.

But the time/patience issue would keep me from doing it anyway even if I had a house. Easier to just man up and get rid of most of them and just Netflix them if I want to watch one of them down the road, vs. wasting pressure free time on ripping them to digital files that I'll still seldom (if ever) watch again.

[pilotbob]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

On top of that, I'd feel too guilty keeping the digital files and selling/donating the DVDs--which is what I need to do as storage isn't an option.

Of course you really should destroy them. I am digitizing my DVD collection. I use RipIt... you can set it to rip auto on insert and eject when done. So, just keep a stack near the Mac... every time I see a DVD popped out, I can just pop another one into it.

While I am not destroying my DVDs I am going to pack them up and store rather than needing them to be on the book shelves.

I am also digitizing most of my documents/receipts etc and shredding. I store the scans in evernote so it is easy to search and backed up on their servers.

I already do pretty much 100% of my financial stuff online and have all documents delivered electronically. Maybe in my life time I will save a tree or two.

BOb

[dmaul1114]

Yeah, maybe some day I'd get around to it. I just loathed doing my CD collection. I did it like you describe, just pop them in randomly while doing stuff around the house. Still took me over 6 months to get around to doing all of them.

Another problem currently is I don't have (nor really need) an home theater PC so I don't have any way of getting ripped DVDs displayed on my TV without buying something. And my HDTV lacks a computer input (and my laptop only has the VGA out) so that complicates things currently as well.

What I need to do is just ditch the DVDs, keep the blu rays--upgrade a few more things I own on DVD that are favorites to Blu Ray and the problem will be solved.

I used to want a big film library. But now that I'm older, busier and space in the house is at a premium being a city dweller, I've kind of changed my mind on that. Better to get down to a smaller library of 50-100 absolute favorites and just use Netflix mainly.

[pilotbob]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

Another problem currently is I don't have (nor really need) an home theater PC so I don't have any way of getting ripped DVDs displayed on my TV without buying something. And my HDTV lacks a computer input (and my laptop only has the VGA out) so that complicates things currently as well.

I know where you're coming from on the time.

Do you have a TiVo or XBox 360?

BOb

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by pilotbob

I know where you're coming from on the time.

Do you have a TiVo or XBox 360?

BOb

I do have an Xbox 360, so you're right that I do at least have the option to stream through there if I wanted since it can network with a windows media center PC etc.

I really just need to find a way to sell a bunch of DVDs, even for just a couple bucks. I'd say easily 75% of the 300+ DVDs haven't been watched in 5 years or more. Maybe an even bigger %. Some have never been watched as it was something I saw in the theater and liked and bought the DVD, but have never watched it since.

So that's part of my hesitance to rip them--I'm still probably rarely going to watch most of them anyway. I just don't have the time and I'd rather spend free time watching a movie for the first time most of the time, vs. rewatching something.

But the collector in me hates to part with a lot of them, not to mention how much it sucks to think about all the money spent on them vs. what I could get out of them selling them.

One of those many "wish I knew then what I know now" things in life so I wouldn't have bought so many through college and grad school when I had more time to watch them!

[Shaggy]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

I still wouldn't put it under never. Some european countries already provide free internet--as do some cities in the US. So the free part can happen.

Doubtful you're going to see zero cost and high quality at the same time though. And "free" is probably misleading in those cases. I'd bet taxes are paying for it.

Almost never being down simply requires having a complex system of back ups in place.

It's more difficult than it sounds, and it's expensive. Somebody is going to have to pay for it. Companies aren't going to put in high availability, high speed infrastructure and then give it away.

The electric utility industry is over 100 years old now. I'm still waiting for free electricity without power outages.

So to some regard there's a limit on how big media files can get.

Don't bet on it. I'm sure after 3D becomes the norm they'll come up with some other wiz-bang feature to drive new sales. I'm sure at one point people thought that B&W silent movies were the height of technology and couldn't imagine anything better. Remember the infamous "640K is plenty of memory" quote from MS?

Too huge areas where the human race is doing a pathetic job at innovation is speed of data communications and the global infrastructure for it. And battery technology (or alternate power sources for portable devices).

Is it that we're pathetic at innovation, or that every time we innovate the target moves farther away?

[Shaggy]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

I mentioned above that I'm in a condo and thus don't have much closet space and no attic or basement. And it would be stupid to pay for a storage unit etc.

Get rid of the cases and just keep the discs. You can get a "cake box" that'll hold 100 DVDs and hardly take up any room.

But the time/patience issue would keep me from doing it anyway even if I had a house.

I'm just saying it would probably take a lot less time/patience than you think.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Shaggy

Get rid of the cases and just keep the discs. You can get a "cake box" that'll hold 100 DVDs and hardly take up any room.

I thought about that for sure. Just so hard to find stuff. You can alphabetize, but hard to put new movies you buy in the proper place etc.

But I may go that way--and probably would do that if I ever do digitize the collection.

I'm just saying it would probably take a lot less time/patience than you think.

I know it's not something that would take like a week of full time labor or anything. It's just one of those annoying things to hassle with when you're working and on the go all the time like I am. I just hate spending my free time on anything that's not entertaining!

But sure I could do it. Just do it in between working instead of wasting time with forum posting breaks! So maybe I'll get around to it eventually.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Shaggy

Doubtful you're going to see zero cost and high quality at the same time though. And "free" is probably misleading in those cases. I'd bet taxes are paying for it.

Oh true. I should have been more clear in that it's free in terms of anyone with equipment who lives in the country can access it.

Not that it's truly free, as yes tax money would be behind it for sure, and is in cities and countries with free service.

Is it that we're pathetic at innovation, or that every time we innovate the target moves farther away?

A combination of the two for sure. But at the same time, laptops haven't advanced much the past few years in terms of what they can do, and battery life hasn't gotten much better.

Battery life is the biggest tech limitation we have right now IMO. And I don't think that will get better, it will be widespread wireless electricity etc. that ends up moving portable technology forward, rather than some breakthrough in battery tech IMO.

[CyGuy]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

Battery life is the biggest tech limitation we have right now IMO. And I don't think that will get better, it will be widespread wireless electricity etc. that ends up moving portable technology forward, rather than some breakthrough in battery tech IMO.

I think power consumption and processor efficiency will help though, as well as small but steady improvements in battery technology.

[dmaul1114]

Those can help. But the problem there is that's hampered by Shaggy's point. We keep needing more power and more speed in processors to drive more complex programs, HD video, next gen 3D graphics etc. so there's only so much that can be done to cut power consumption etc.

As he points out, it's hard for tech to stay ahead of the curve.

[DawnFalcon]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

But if in 50 years there's blazing fast wireless internet freely available worldwide that pretty much never has outages etc....then I could go for it.

Still won't matter. File formats etc. will grow in size (with 3d and so on), and local processing power rises far faster than bandwidth falls in price. This is the golden age for streaming, it'll only get worse in a relative sense for them.